# Chap.8

```PART 3 MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF FINANCE

CHAPTER 8 INFLATION, DEFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT
インフレーション、デフレーション、失業
Naotsugu HAYASHI 林 直嗣
Professor of Economics 経済学教授
Hosei University 法政大学
1. AGGREGATE DEMAND CURVE AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE

① Rise in prices P
⇒decrease in real balance of money M/P
⇒ LM curve shifts to the left
⇒ decrease in aggregate demand Y
⇒ aggregate demand curve D is downward-sloping
①物価Pの上昇
⇒実質貨幣残高M/Pの減少
⇒ＬＭ曲線の左方シフト
⇒総需要Yの減少
⇒総需要曲線Dは右下がり
Aggregate demand curve and
aggregate supply curve
1B. AGGREGATE DEMAND CURVE AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE

② Macro production function Y = F(N)
From the condition for profit maximization
Marginal productivity of labor dY/dN= F’(N)
= real wages W/P
⇔the first axiom of the classical school
decreasing marginal productivity of labor
= increasing marginal cost
⇒aggregate supply curve S is upward-sloping
③ At the intersection, goods market equilibrium
Simultaneous determination of equilibrium
income Y* and equilibrium prices P*
Aggregate demand curve and
aggregate supply curve
②マクロ生産関数Y＝F(N)

⇒総供給曲線Sは右上がり
③両者の交点で財市場均衡、均衡所得Y＊と均衡物価P＊の同時決定
2.DEAMND-PULL INFLATION AND COST-PUSH INFLATION

Classification using Comparative Statics by F. Machlup
① Inflation of Currency⇒increases aggregate demand
⇒ Aggregate demand curve D shifts a right side to D’
⇒ Equilibrium E shifts to E’
⇒ Income Y increases, prices P rises
⇒ Demand-pull Inflation

①通貨の膨張（inflation）⇒総需要の増大
⇒総需要曲線Dの右方シフト
⇒均衡点はEからE'へ
⇒所得Yは増加し、物価Pは上昇
⇒需要牽引インフレ
（デマンド・プル・インフレ )
Demand-pull Inflation
2B.DEAMND-PULL INFLATION AND COST-PUSH INFLATION

②Increase in (Marginal) Cost
⇒ Aggregate Supply curve S shifts upward
⇒ Equilibrium E shifts to E’
⇒ Income Y decreases, prices P rises
⇒ Cost-push Inflation
Coexistence of stagnation and inflation
⇒ stagflation
②費用（限界費用）の増加
⇒総供給曲線Sの上方シフト
⇒均衡点はEからE'へ
⇒所得Yは減少し、物価Pは上昇
⇒費用圧力インフレ
（コスト・プッシュ・インフレ）

⇔スタグフレーション（stagflation）
Demand-pull Inflation
Cost-push Inflation
3.LOWER PRICES AND DEFLATION

①decrease in costs by innovation
⇒Downward shift of marginal cost curve
⇒Downward shift of aggregate supply curve S
⇒ Equilibrium shifts from E to E’
⇒ Prices P fall, National Income Y increases
⇒ Cheaper prices and mass production
①技術革新による生産費の節減
⇒限界費用曲線の下方シフト
⇒総供給曲線Sの下方シフト
⇒均衡点はEからE’へ
⇒価格Pは低下して、生産量・所得Yは増加
⇒低廉化と大量生産
Innovation & Lower prices
3B.LOWER PRICES AND DEFLATION

② Decrease in aggregate demand by depression
⇒Left side shift of aggregate demand curve D
⇒ Equilibrium shifts from E to E’
⇒ Prices P fall, National Income Y decreases
⇒ Deflation
②不況による総需要の減退
⇒総需要曲線Dの左方シフト
⇒均衡点はEからE’へ
⇒生産量・所得Yは減少し、物価Pは下落
⇒デフレーション（deflation）
Deflation
4.SPECULATION AND BUBBLE

① Stability condition for market equilibrium
The law of demand = When a price rises, the demand decreases. When a price falls, the
demand increases.
Gross substitutability = When a price rises, the demand decreases and the demand for its
substitute increases.
②Occurrence of bubble
If the stability conditions are not satisfied
⇒ When a price rises, the demand D increases to D’, the price rises more.
⇒ speculation ⇒ equilibrium E shifts to E’
⇒ Income Y increases a little, but the price rises greatly.
Speculation and Bubble
⇒ Bubble occurs
①市場均衡の安定条件

その代替財の需要が増加
②バブルの発生

⇒価格が上がれば需要DはD’へ増え、

⇒投機（speculation）⇒均衡点はEからE’へ
⇒所得はあまり増えずに物価だけが一方的に上昇
⇔バブル（bubble）の発生
4B.SPECULATION AND BUBBLE

③ Collapse of Bubble
When a price falls, the demand D’ decreases to D, and
a further fall in the price causes a further decrease in the demand.
⇒ speculation collapses
⇒ equilibrium E’ shifts to E
⇒ National income Y decreases and the price falls
⇔ Collapse of bubble
③バブルの崩壊

⇒投機が逆に崩壊
⇒均衡点はE’から更にEへ
⇒所得が減って物価が下落
⇔バブル崩壊
5.INFLATION GAP AND DEFLATION GAP
インフレ・ギャップとデフレ・ギャップ
Inflationary Gap ＝nominal aggregate demand which exceeds full employment
national income YＦ
⇒ to cause inflationary pressure on prices
Deflationary Gap ＝nominal aggregate demand which is short of full
employment national income YＦ
⇒ to cause deflationary pressure on prices
Inflation Gap & Deflation Gap

⇒インフレ・ギャップ（inflationary gap）
⇒インフレ圧力が掛かる
それを下回る名目総需要を
⇒デフレ・ギャップ（deflationary gap）
⇒デフレ圧力が掛かる
6. VOLUNTARY UNEMPLOYMENT AND INVOLUNTARY UNEMPLOYMANT

① Classical Equilibrium
Firms demand labor in order for the marginal productivity of labor to be equal to real
wages ⇔the first postulate of the classical school
Workers supply labor in order for the marginal disutility of labor to be equal to real
wages ⇔the second postulate of the classical school
At the intersection of the curves of labor demand and supply, E
⇒ to determine equilibrium employment N* and equilibrium real wages (w/p)*
⇔Classical equilibrium＝完全雇用均衡
When real wages are too high, excess supply of labor occurs
⇔Voluntary Unemployment ⇒ a fall in w/p restores equilibrium E
①古典派均衡

⇔第１公準

⇔第２公準

⇒均衡雇用量N＊と均衡実質賃金率(w/p)＊が決定
⇔古典派均衡（Classical equilibrium）＝完全雇用均衡

⇔自発的失業（voluntary unemployment）
⇒w/pが低下して均衡に戻る
6. VOLUNTARY UNEMPLOYMENT AND INVOLUNTARY UNEMPLOYMENT

② Keynesian Equilibrium
Periodical wage negotiation ⇒ nominal wages have downward rigidity
= labor supply curve is horizontal from w to E = to deny the second postulate
= equilibrium K = Underemployment Equilibrium = Keynesian Equilibrium
⇒ Involuntary unemployment from K to E
= Unemployment though he has working intension and ability and looked for a job
⇒ Expansion of fiscal expenditure, aggregate demand, labor demand to ND’
⇒ Restore full employment equilibrium …Effective demand policy
②ケインズ均衡

Keynesian
⇒K点で均衡＝不完全雇用均衡
＝ケインズ均衡（Keynesian equilibrium）
⇒KEの非自発的失業（involuntary unemployment）
＝現行貨幣賃金率wの下で働く意思と能力を持ち

⇒不況時に財政支出拡大、総需要拡大、

⇒完全雇用均衡Eの回復…有効需要政策の有効性
Equilibrium
7. INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT
インフレと失業：フィリップス曲線
① Phillips curve
When unemployment rate u rises, the rate of increase in money wages Δw／w falls.
⇒Δw／w＝f(u)＝－a(u－u＊)、f'(u)＜0
When u＝u*, Δw／w＝0
…frictional unemployment
Phillips insisted that the relation ship had been stable for 100 years.
①フィリップス曲線

⇒Δw／w＝f(u)＝－a(u－u＊)、f'(u)＜0
u＝u＊のときΔw／w＝0
…摩擦的失業（frictional unemploymant）
フィリップスは100年に及ぶ安定的関係と主張
Phillips curve
7B. INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT
インフレと失業：フィリップス曲線
② Quasi-Phillips curve
Nominal income PY ×rate of distribution of labor Ω ＝ Wage income W
∴ （PY／N）×Ω＝W／N ⇔ PyΩ＝ w, where y = Y/N, w = W/N
∴ rate of increase in P + rate of increase in y + rate of increase in Ω = rate of increase in w
If Δy/y = Δ Ω / Ω , Δw/w＝Δp/p = 0.
∴Δp/p＝－a(u－u*)、f'(u)＜0 … Price version of Phillips curve = Quasi-Phillips curve
⇔ it shows the trade-off between inflation and unemployment
⇒ If monetary policy suppresses inflation, unemployment increases. If monetary policy
accelerates inflation, unemployment increases.
②準フィリップス曲線

PyΩ＝w （物価×労働生産性×労働分配率＝賃金率）
∴物価上昇率＋労働生産性上昇率＋労働分配率上昇率＝賃金上昇率

Δw／w＝Δp／p、Δp／p＝－a(u－u＊)、f'(u)＜0
…物価版フィリップス曲線＝準フィリップス曲線
⇔インフレと失業のトレードオフ
⇒金融政策でインフレを抑えれば失業が

8. NATURAL RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS

① Expectations-Augmented Quasi-Phillips Curve
When expected inflation Δπ / π rises, actual inflation Δp / p also rises, and the quasiPhillips curve shifts upward. Δp / p = Δπ / π- a (u - u*), f '(u) <0
Fisherian curve …reverse of causal relationship
u = - (1 / a) (Δp / p - Δπ / π) + u*
If Δp / p = Δπ / π, u = u*
When expected inflation = actual inflation, u = natural rate of unemployment
…Friedman, Lucas, Sargent, Barro,= New Monetarists
Natural Rate of Unemployment
①予想を入れた準フィリップス曲線

Δp / p = Δπ / π- a (u - u*), f '(u) <0
フィッシャー曲線…因果関係が逆
u = - (1 / a) (Δp / p - Δπ / π) + u*
∴ Δp / p = Δπ / π ならばu＝u＊

⇔自然失業率
…フリードマン、ルーカス、サージェント、
バロー＝ ニューマネタリスト
8B. NATURAL RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS

② Rational Expectations
= Expectations which is not systematically different from the average of actual
observations
E(Δp / p)＝ Δπ / π、E(u)＝u＊
⇒ Phillips curve becomes vertical and the natural unemployment rate hypothesis holds.
⇒ Monetary policy can control inflation but cannot change unemployment rate in the
long run.
Monetary policy is effective only in the short run.
②合理的期待（rational expectations）
＝平均して現実値とシステマティックに異
ならない期待（ミュース）
E(Δp / p)＝ Δπ / π、E(u)＝u＊
フィリップス曲線は垂直、自然失業率が成立
⇒金融政策でインフレを制御しても失業率を

9. LUCAS SUPPLY FUNCTION
ルーカス供給関数
① Let denote labor force by LN, actual employment by N, natural employment N＊ ,then u
＝(LN－N)／LN、u＊＝(LN－N＊)／LN、
Denote c = labor per output, then N＝cY、N＊＝cYＦ
∴u＝１－cY／LN、u＊＝１－cYＦ／LN、
∴u－u＊＝－(c／LN)(Y－YＦ)
Substitute it in quasi-Phillips curve to obtain
∴Δp／p＝Δpｅ／pｅ＋β(Y－YＦ)、f'(Y)＞0、β＝ac／LN
⇔ Lucas Supply Function
①労働力人口LN、実際の雇用量N、自然失業率に対応する雇用量N＊、
Lucas Supply Function
u＝(LN－N)／LN、u＊＝(LN－N＊)／LN、

N＝cY、N＊＝cYＦ
∴u＝１－cY／LN、u＊＝１－cYＦ／LN、
∴u－u＊＝－(c／LN)(Y－YＦ)

∴Δp／p＝Δpｅ／pｅ＋β(Y－YＦ)、f'(Y)＞0、
β＝ac／LN
⇔ルーカス供給関数（Lucas supply function）
9B. LUCAS SUPPLY FUNCTION
ルーカス供給関数
② Under rational expectations,
E(Δp／p)＝Δpｅ／pｅ= Δπ/π,E(u)＝u＊
hold in the long run.
Lucas supply curve stands vertically, full employment is attained.
…New Classical school
⇒ Monetary policy can control inflation but cannot change full employment level.
⇒ Monetary policy is effective only in the short run.
②合理的期待の下では長期平均的に
E(Δp／p)＝Δpｅ／pｅ、E(u)＝u＊
ルーカス供給曲線は垂直、完全雇用が成立
…新しい古典派
⇒金融政策でインフレを制御しても完全

10. PROPOSITION OF IMPOTENCE OF MONETARY POLICY

① From the Quantity Theory of Money, MV = PY, money M ×velocity V = nominal
income PY. ∴ Y = MV/P ⇒ Y＝αlog（M／P）、
Y－Y－１＝α（logM／P－logM－１／P－１）＝α（logM／M－１－logP／P－１）
Let denote Y－１＝YＦ
Y＝YＦ＋α（ΔM／M－ΔP／P）
…Inflationary aggregate demand curve
Δp／p＝Δpｅ／pｅ＋β(Y－YＦ)
…Inflationary aggregate supply curve = Lucas supply curve
① 貨幣数量説から、MV=PY、よってY＝αlog（M／P）、
Y－Y－１＝α（logM／P－logM－１／P－１）＝α（logM／M－１－logP／P－１）
Y－１＝YＦとおけば
Y＝YＦ＋α（ΔM／M－ΔP／P）…インフレ総需要曲線
Δp／p＝Δpｅ／pｅ＋β(Y－YＦ)…インフレ総供給曲線、ルーカス供給曲線
10B. PROPOSITION OF IMPOTENCE OF MONETARY POLICY

② Under rational expectations,
E(Δp／p)＝Δpｅ／pｅ、E(ΔM／M)＝E(ΔP／P) 、E(Y)＝YＦ
holds in the long run. The expected rate of inflation = the expectation of actual rate of
inflation = the expectation of actual rate of increase in money supply
the expectation of national income = full employment national income
⇔ Monetary policy-omnipotence proposition
⇒ Only disturbance policy that is not expected by the public is effective in the short run.
⇒ Money illusion based on asymmetry of information has policy effect in the short run.
②合理的期待の下では長期平均的に
E(Δp／p)＝Δpｅ／pｅ、E(ΔM／M)＝E(ΔP／P) 、E(Y)＝YＦ

⇔マネーサプライを制御する金融政策の無力命題（policy-omnipotence proposition）
⇒短期的に公衆が予想できない攪乱政策のみが効果をもつ

⇔貨幣錯覚（money illusion）…情報の不完全性に基づく政策効果

11. PROPOSITION OF IMPOTENCE OF FISCAL POLICY

① In case of financing fiscal deficit by money printing ⇒ the same as monetary policy
② In case of financing fiscal deficit by issuing bonds ⇒ the public buy bonds with
savings
⇒ the price of national bonds falls ⇒ the interest rate rises
⇒ to crowd out private investment
= crowding-out effect
⇒ to decrease private investment by the same amount of increased fiscal expenditure
⇒ national income remains unchanged
①赤字財政を貨幣増刷で賄う場合⇒金融政策と同様
②赤字財政を国債増発で賄う場合
⇒国民が貯蓄から購入⇒国債価格の下落⇒利子率の上昇
⇒民間投資の締め出し効果
＝クラウディングアウト効果（crowding-out effect）
⇒財政支出増大の分だけ民間投資が削減され、国民所得は増えない2
11B. PROPOSITION OF IMPOTENCE OF FISCAL POLICY

③ Effect of future tax increase
If tax revenue – fiscal expenditure < 0, fiscal deficit. ⇔ to expect future tax increase
⇒ to decrease consumption and to increase savings
Ricardian equivalence theorem, Barro's overapping generation model
… New Ricardian school
Under rational expectations, people increase savings and legends in order for future
generations to pay increased future taxes
⇒ Deficit fiscal policy becomes omnipotent in the long run.
Debt illusion can be effective in the short run.
③将来増税効果

リカードの等価定理（Ricardian equivalence theorem）
バローの重複世代モデル（Barro's overapping generation model）
…新リカード主義

⇒長期平均的には赤字財政政策の無力命題が成立

⇔国債錯覚（debt illusion）…情報の不完全性に基づく政策効果
12. METHODS OF MONETARY POLICY: RULES OR DISCRETION

Under rational expectations, a consistent policy based on rules will be anticipated
and incorporated into their behavior rationally by the public, and thus will not
have any effect on real economy averagely in the long run.
① Keynesian discretionary policy has an effect only when it is random. But it
becomes mal effect , because transmission lags are not anticipated correctly.
⇒ It abandoned stable money supply and adopted discretionary and arbitrary
interest rate control. ⇒ to cause the bubble
⇒ disturb market ⇒ rapid decrease in the money supply ⇒ deteriorate the
collapse of the bubble = failure of monetary policy

①ケインジアンの裁量政策は攪乱的政策（ランダムな政策）の場合にのみ効果をもつ、

⇒安定的貨幣供給を放棄して恣意的・裁量的な金利操作
⇒バブルの重大要因

⇒急激な貨幣供給の減少⇒バブル崩壊を深刻化…金融政策の失敗
12B. METHODS OF MONETARY POLICY: RULES OR DISCRETION

② New Monetarists’ Method based on Rules
⇒ stopped discretionary monetary policy and adopted stable money supply policy
based on rules
⇒ achieved price stability and economic stability in the late 1970s and the early
1980s
= k% rule
②ニューマネタリストのルール方式
⇒裁量政策を止め、ルールに基づく安定的貨幣供給政策
⇒70年代後半～80年代前半に物価安定（中央銀行の最高目標）や景気安

＝ｋ％ルール
13. METHODS OF FISCAL POLICY: RULES OR DISCRETION

①Keynesian Deficit Fiscal Policy
⇒Perpetuates the issuing of deficit bonds⇔discretionary increase in
deficits
⇒accumulation of huge amount of fiscal deficit（700 trillion yen in 2002
fiscal year)
⇒huge future tax burden
⇒suppress consumption⇒decrease in sales⇒decrease in profits
⇒decrease in investment⇒prolong deflation
Keynes⇒fiscal deficits in depression should be financed by fiscal surplus in
boom
①ケインジアン赤字財政政策
⇒赤字国債発行の恒常化⇔赤字の裁量的垂れ流し政策
⇒巨額の財政赤字累積（2002年度約700兆円）
⇒将来税負担の巨額化
⇒消費抑制効果⇒売上げ減少⇒利益減少
⇒設備投資の減少⇒デフレの長期化の要因
Keynes⇒不況時の財政赤字を好況時の財政黒字で補填しバランスを取る
13. METHODS OF FISCAL POLICY: RULES OR DISCRETION

②New Monetarist’s Act of Balancing the Budget
Enact a rule of multi-year balanced budget as a law or constitution
Single-year balanced budget
⇒ Multi-year balanced budget
…Clinton administration achieved a balanced budget
②ニューマネタリストの財政均衡化法

ルールを制定

⇒多年度均衡財政主義

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