Chap.8

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PART 3 MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF FINANCE
金融のマクロ分析
CHAPTER 8 INFLATION, DEFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT
インフレーション、デフレーション、失業
Naotsugu HAYASHI 林 直嗣
Professor of Economics 経済学教授
Faculty of Business Administration 経営学部
Hosei University 法政大学
1. AGGREGATE DEMAND CURVE AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE
総需要曲線と総供給曲線
① Rise in prices P
⇒decrease in real balance of money M/P
⇒ LM curve shifts to the left
⇒ decrease in aggregate demand Y
⇒ aggregate demand curve D is downward-sloping
①物価Pの上昇
⇒実質貨幣残高M/Pの減少
⇒LM曲線の左方シフト
⇒総需要Yの減少
⇒総需要曲線Dは右下がり
Aggregate demand curve and
aggregate supply curve
1B. AGGREGATE DEMAND CURVE AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE
総需要曲線と総供給曲線
② Macro production function Y = F(N)
From the condition for profit maximization
Marginal productivity of labor dY/dN= F’(N)
= real wages W/P
⇔the first axiom of the classical school
decreasing marginal productivity of labor
= increasing marginal cost
⇒aggregate supply curve S is upward-sloping
③ At the intersection, goods market equilibrium
Simultaneous determination of equilibrium
income Y* and equilibrium prices P*
Aggregate demand curve and
aggregate supply curve
②マクロ生産関数Y=F(N)
利潤最大化条件により
労働の限界生産力dY/dN=F’(N)=実質賃金W/P ⇔古典派の第1公準
労働の限界生産力が低減⇒限界費用が逓増
⇒総供給曲線Sは右上がり
③両者の交点で財市場均衡、均衡所得Y*と均衡物価P*の同時決定
2.DEAMND-PULL INFLATION AND COST-PUSH INFLATION
需要インフレと費用インフレ
Classification using Comparative Statics by F. Machlup
① Inflation of Currency⇒increases aggregate demand
⇒ Aggregate demand curve D shifts a right side to D’
⇒ Equilibrium E shifts to E’
⇒ Income Y increases, prices P rises
⇒ Demand-pull Inflation
比較静学によるフリッツ・マハルップの分類(林訳)
①通貨の膨張(inflation)⇒総需要の増大
⇒総需要曲線Dの右方シフト
⇒均衡点はEからE'へ
⇒所得Yは増加し、物価Pは上昇
⇒需要牽引インフレ
(デマンド・プル・インフレ )
Demand-pull Inflation
2B.DEAMND-PULL INFLATION AND COST-PUSH INFLATION
需要インフレと費用インフレ
②Increase in (Marginal) Cost
⇒ Aggregate Supply curve S shifts upward
⇒ Equilibrium E shifts to E’
⇒ Income Y decreases, prices P rises
⇒ Cost-push Inflation
Coexistence of stagnation and inflation
⇒ stagflation
②費用(限界費用)の増加
⇒総供給曲線Sの上方シフト
⇒均衡点はEからE'へ
⇒所得Yは減少し、物価Pは上昇
⇒費用圧力インフレ
(コスト・プッシュ・インフレ)
景気停滞と物価上昇の共存
⇔スタグフレーション(stagflation)
Demand-pull Inflation
Cost-push Inflation
3.LOWER PRICES AND DEFLATION
低価格化とデフレ
①decrease in costs by innovation
⇒Downward shift of marginal cost curve
⇒Downward shift of aggregate supply curve S
⇒ Equilibrium shifts from E to E’
⇒ Prices P fall, National Income Y increases
⇒ Cheaper prices and mass production
①技術革新による生産費の節減
⇒限界費用曲線の下方シフト
⇒総供給曲線Sの下方シフト
⇒均衡点はEからE’へ
⇒価格Pは低下して、生産量・所得Yは増加
⇒低廉化と大量生産
Innovation & Lower prices
3B.LOWER PRICES AND DEFLATION
低価格化とデフレ
② Decrease in aggregate demand by depression
⇒Left side shift of aggregate demand curve D
⇒ Equilibrium shifts from E to E’
⇒ Prices P fall, National Income Y decreases
⇒ Deflation
②不況による総需要の減退
⇒総需要曲線Dの左方シフト
⇒均衡点はEからE’へ
⇒生産量・所得Yは減少し、物価Pは下落
⇒デフレーション(deflation)
Deflation
4.SPECULATION AND BUBBLE
投機とバブル
① Stability condition for market equilibrium
The law of demand = When a price rises, the demand decreases. When a price falls, the
demand increases.
Gross substitutability = When a price rises, the demand decreases and the demand for its
substitute increases.
②Occurrence of bubble
If the stability conditions are not satisfied
⇒ When a price rises, the demand D increases to D’, the price rises more.
⇒ speculation ⇒ equilibrium E shifts to E’
⇒ Income Y increases a little, but the price rises greatly.
Speculation and Bubble
⇒ Bubble occurs
①市場均衡の安定条件
需要法則 =価格が上がれば需要は減り、
価格が下がれば需要は増える
粗代替性 =ある財の価格が上がると、その需要が減り、
その代替財の需要が増加
②バブルの発生
需要法則や粗代替性が満たされない場合
⇒価格が上がれば需要DはD’へ増え、
価格が更に上がると需要も更に増える
⇒投機(speculation)⇒均衡点はEからE’へ
⇒所得はあまり増えずに物価だけが一方的に上昇
⇔バブル(bubble)の発生
4B.SPECULATION AND BUBBLE
投機とバブル
③ Collapse of Bubble
When a price falls, the demand D’ decreases to D, and
a further fall in the price causes a further decrease in the demand.
⇒ speculation collapses
⇒ equilibrium E’ shifts to E
⇒ National income Y decreases and the price falls
⇔ Collapse of bubble
③バブルの崩壊
価格が下がると需要D‘からDへ減り、価格が
更に下がると需要も更に減る
⇒投機が逆に崩壊
⇒均衡点はE’から更にEへ
⇒所得が減って物価が下落
⇔バブル崩壊
5.INFLATION GAP AND DEFLATION GAP
インフレ・ギャップとデフレ・ギャップ
Inflationary Gap =nominal aggregate demand which exceeds full employment
national income YF
⇒ to cause inflationary pressure on prices
Deflationary Gap =nominal aggregate demand which is short of full
employment national income YF
⇒ to cause deflationary pressure on prices
Inflation Gap & Deflation Gap
完全雇用国民所得YFと比べてそれを超過する
名目総需要を
⇒インフレ・ギャップ(inflationary gap)
⇒インフレ圧力が掛かる
それを下回る名目総需要を
⇒デフレ・ギャップ(deflationary gap)
⇒デフレ圧力が掛かる
6. VOLUNTARY UNEMPLOYMENT AND INVOLUNTARY UNEMPLOYMANT
自発的失業と非自発的失業(1)
① Classical Equilibrium
Firms demand labor in order for the marginal productivity of labor to be equal to real
wages ⇔the first postulate of the classical school
Workers supply labor in order for the marginal disutility of labor to be equal to real
wages ⇔the second postulate of the classical school
At the intersection of the curves of labor demand and supply, E
⇒ to determine equilibrium employment N* and equilibrium real wages (w/p)*
⇔Classical equilibrium=完全雇用均衡
When real wages are too high, excess supply of labor occurs
⇔Voluntary Unemployment ⇒ a fall in w/p restores equilibrium E
①古典派均衡
企業は労働の限界生産力が実質賃金に等しくなるように労働需要
⇔第1公準
労働者・家計は労働の限界不効用が実質賃金に等しくなるように労働供給
⇔第2公準
労働需要曲線と労働供給曲線の交点E
⇒均衡雇用量N*と均衡実質賃金率(w/p)*が決定
⇔古典派均衡(Classical equilibrium)=完全雇用均衡
実質賃金率が高すぎると労働の超過供給
⇔自発的失業(voluntary unemployment)
⇒w/pが低下して均衡に戻る
6. VOLUNTARY UNEMPLOYMENT AND INVOLUNTARY UNEMPLOYMENT
自発的失業と非自発的失業(2)
② Keynesian Equilibrium
Periodical wage negotiation ⇒ nominal wages have downward rigidity
= labor supply curve is horizontal from w to E = to deny the second postulate
= equilibrium K = Underemployment Equilibrium = Keynesian Equilibrium
⇒ Involuntary unemployment from K to E
= Unemployment though he has working intension and ability and looked for a job
⇒ Expansion of fiscal expenditure, aggregate demand, labor demand to ND’
⇒ Restore full employment equilibrium …Effective demand policy
②ケインズ均衡
定期的賃金交渉制度の下では貨幣賃金率wは下方硬直性(downward rigidity)
労働供給曲線はwからEまで水平…古典派第2公準の否定
Keynesian
⇒K点で均衡=不完全雇用均衡
=ケインズ均衡(Keynesian equilibrium)
⇒KEの非自発的失業(involuntary unemployment)
=現行貨幣賃金率wの下で働く意思と能力を持ち
求職活動をしてもなお失業
⇒不況時に財政支出拡大、総需要拡大、
労働需要拡大で労働需要曲線をND'へシフト
⇒完全雇用均衡Eの回復…有効需要政策の有効性
Equilibrium
7. INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT
インフレと失業:フィリップス曲線
① Phillips curve
When unemployment rate u rises, the rate of increase in money wages Δw/w falls.
⇒Δw/w=f(u)=-a(u-u*)、f'(u)<0
When u=u*, Δw/w=0
…frictional unemployment
Phillips insisted that the relation ship had been stable for 100 years.
①フィリップス曲線
失業率uが上がると貨幣賃金上昇率Δw/wは下がる
⇒Δw/w=f(u)=-a(u-u*)、f'(u)<0
u=u*のときΔw/w=0
…摩擦的失業(frictional unemploymant)
フィリップスは100年に及ぶ安定的関係と主張
Phillips curve
7B. INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT
インフレと失業:フィリップス曲線
② Quasi-Phillips curve
Nominal income PY ×rate of distribution of labor Ω = Wage income W
∴ (PY/N)×Ω=W/N ⇔ PyΩ= w, where y = Y/N, w = W/N
∴ rate of increase in P + rate of increase in y + rate of increase in Ω = rate of increase in w
If Δy/y = Δ Ω / Ω , Δw/w=Δp/p = 0.
∴Δp/p=-a(u-u*)、f'(u)<0 … Price version of Phillips curve = Quasi-Phillips curve
⇔ it shows the trade-off between inflation and unemployment
⇒ If monetary policy suppresses inflation, unemployment increases. If monetary policy
accelerates inflation, unemployment increases.
②準フィリップス曲線
名目国民所得PY×労働分配率Ω=賃金分配分W =雇用者所得 ∴(PY/N)×Ω=W/N
PyΩ=w (物価×労働生産性×労働分配率=賃金率)
∴物価上昇率+労働生産性上昇率+労働分配率上昇率=賃金上昇率
労働生産性上昇率と労働分配率が不変であれば、
Δw/w=Δp/p、Δp/p=-a(u-u*)、f'(u)<0
…物価版フィリップス曲線=準フィリップス曲線
⇔インフレと失業のトレードオフ
⇒金融政策でインフレを抑えれば失業が
増大、インフレを加速すれば失業を抑制
8. NATURAL RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS
自然失業率と合理的期待
① Expectations-Augmented Quasi-Phillips Curve
When expected inflation Δπ / π rises, actual inflation Δp / p also rises, and the quasiPhillips curve shifts upward. Δp / p = Δπ / π- a (u - u*), f '(u) <0
Fisherian curve …reverse of causal relationship
u = - (1 / a) (Δp / p - Δπ / π) + u*
If Δp / p = Δπ / π, u = u*
When expected inflation = actual inflation, u = natural rate of unemployment
…Friedman, Lucas, Sargent, Barro,= New Monetarists
Natural Rate of Unemployment
①予想を入れた準フィリップス曲線
予想物価上昇率Δπ/πが上がれば
準フィリップス曲線は上方シフトする
Δp / p = Δπ / π- a (u - u*), f '(u) <0
フィッシャー曲線…因果関係が逆
u = - (1 / a) (Δp / p - Δπ / π) + u*
∴ Δp / p = Δπ / π ならばu=u*
予想物価上昇率=現実物価上昇率のとき実現するu
⇔自然失業率
…フリードマン、ルーカス、サージェント、
バロー= ニューマネタリスト
8B. NATURAL RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS
自然失業率と合理的期待
② Rational Expectations
= Expectations which is not systematically different from the average of actual
observations
E(Δp / p)= Δπ / π、E(u)=u*
⇒ Phillips curve becomes vertical and the natural unemployment rate hypothesis holds.
⇒ Monetary policy can control inflation but cannot change unemployment rate in the
long run.
Monetary policy is effective only in the short run.
②合理的期待(rational expectations)
=平均して現実値とシステマティックに異
ならない期待(ミュース)
E(Δp / p)= Δπ / π、E(u)=u*
フィリップス曲線は垂直、自然失業率が成立
⇒金融政策でインフレを制御しても失業率を
変えることはできない
政策効果は短期のみ
9. LUCAS SUPPLY FUNCTION
ルーカス供給関数
① Let denote labor force by LN, actual employment by N, natural employment N* ,then u
=(LN-N)/LN、u*=(LN-N*)/LN、
Denote c = labor per output, then N=cY、N*=cYF
∴u=1-cY/LN、u*=1-cYF/LN、
∴u-u*=-(c/LN)(Y-YF)
Substitute it in quasi-Phillips curve to obtain
∴Δp/p=Δpe/pe+β(Y-YF)、f'(Y)>0、β=ac/LN
⇔ Lucas Supply Function
①労働力人口LN、実際の雇用量N、自然失業率に対応する雇用量N*、
Lucas Supply Function
u=(LN-N)/LN、u*=(LN-N*)/LN、
生産物1単位当たり労働投入量cとすると、
N=cY、N*=cYF
∴u=1-cY/LN、u*=1-cYF/LN、
∴u-u*=-(c/LN)(Y-YF)
予想を入れた準フィリップス曲線に代入
∴Δp/p=Δpe/pe+β(Y-YF)、f'(Y)>0、
β=ac/LN
⇔ルーカス供給関数(Lucas supply function)
9B. LUCAS SUPPLY FUNCTION
ルーカス供給関数
② Under rational expectations,
E(Δp/p)=Δpe/pe= Δπ/π,E(u)=u*
hold in the long run.
Lucas supply curve stands vertically, full employment is attained.
…New Classical school
⇒ Monetary policy can control inflation but cannot change full employment level.
⇒ Monetary policy is effective only in the short run.
②合理的期待の下では長期平均的に
E(Δp/p)=Δpe/pe、E(u)=u*
ルーカス供給曲線は垂直、完全雇用が成立
…新しい古典派
⇒金融政策でインフレを制御しても完全
雇用水準を変えることはできない
政策効果は短期のみ
10. PROPOSITION OF IMPOTENCE OF MONETARY POLICY
金融政策無力命題
① From the Quantity Theory of Money, MV = PY, money M ×velocity V = nominal
income PY. ∴ Y = MV/P ⇒ Y=αlog(M/P)、
Y-Y-1=α(logM/P-logM-1/P-1)=α(logM/M-1-logP/P-1)
Let denote Y-1=YF
Y=YF+α(ΔM/M-ΔP/P)
…Inflationary aggregate demand curve
Δp/p=Δpe/pe+β(Y-YF)
…Inflationary aggregate supply curve = Lucas supply curve
① 貨幣数量説から、MV=PY、よってY=αlog(M/P)、
Y-Y-1=α(logM/P-logM-1/P-1)=α(logM/M-1-logP/P-1)
Y-1=YFとおけば
Y=YF+α(ΔM/M-ΔP/P)…インフレ総需要曲線
Δp/p=Δpe/pe+β(Y-YF)…インフレ総供給曲線、ルーカス供給曲線
10B. PROPOSITION OF IMPOTENCE OF MONETARY POLICY
金融政策無力命題
② Under rational expectations,
E(Δp/p)=Δpe/pe、E(ΔM/M)=E(ΔP/P) 、E(Y)=YF
holds in the long run. The expected rate of inflation = the expectation of actual rate of
inflation = the expectation of actual rate of increase in money supply
the expectation of national income = full employment national income
⇔ Monetary policy-omnipotence proposition
⇒ Only disturbance policy that is not expected by the public is effective in the short run.
⇒ Money illusion based on asymmetry of information has policy effect in the short run.
②合理的期待の下では長期平均的に
E(Δp/p)=Δpe/pe、E(ΔM/M)=E(ΔP/P) 、E(Y)=YF
期待物価上昇率=物価上昇率の期待値=貨幣供給増加率の期待値
国民所得の期待値=完全雇用国民所得
⇔マネーサプライを制御する金融政策の無力命題(policy-omnipotence proposition)
⇒短期的に公衆が予想できない攪乱政策のみが効果をもつ
貨幣賃金の低下を実質賃金の低下と錯覚する場合は労働供給は増え、効果をもつ
⇔貨幣錯覚(money illusion)…情報の不完全性に基づく政策効果
長期的には攪乱項の期待値はゼロ⇔政策効果無し
11. PROPOSITION OF IMPOTENCE OF FISCAL POLICY
財政政策無力命題
① In case of financing fiscal deficit by money printing ⇒ the same as monetary policy
② In case of financing fiscal deficit by issuing bonds ⇒ the public buy bonds with
savings
⇒ the price of national bonds falls ⇒ the interest rate rises
⇒ to crowd out private investment
= crowding-out effect
⇒ to decrease private investment by the same amount of increased fiscal expenditure
⇒ national income remains unchanged
①赤字財政を貨幣増刷で賄う場合⇒金融政策と同様
②赤字財政を国債増発で賄う場合
⇒国民が貯蓄から購入⇒国債価格の下落⇒利子率の上昇
⇒民間投資の締め出し効果
=クラウディングアウト効果(crowding-out effect)
⇒財政支出増大の分だけ民間投資が削減され、国民所得は増えない2
11B. PROPOSITION OF IMPOTENCE OF FISCAL POLICY
財政政策無力命題
③ Effect of future tax increase
If tax revenue – fiscal expenditure < 0, fiscal deficit. ⇔ to expect future tax increase
⇒ to decrease consumption and to increase savings
Ricardian equivalence theorem, Barro's overapping generation model
… New Ricardian school
Under rational expectations, people increase savings and legends in order for future
generations to pay increased future taxes
⇒ Deficit fiscal policy becomes omnipotent in the long run.
Debt illusion can be effective in the short run.
③将来増税効果
税収-財政支出<0なら、財政赤字⇔将来増税を予想⇒消費を抑制、貯蓄を増加
リカードの等価定理(Ricardian equivalence theorem)
バローの重複世代モデル(Barro's overapping generation model)
…新リカード主義
合理的期待の下では後の世代の将来税負担も予想して貯蓄・遺産を残す
⇒長期平均的には赤字財政政策の無力命題が成立
短期的に公衆が国債を資産と錯覚する場合には政策効果がある
⇔国債錯覚(debt illusion)…情報の不完全性に基づく政策効果
12. METHODS OF MONETARY POLICY: RULES OR DISCRETION
金融政策方式:裁量かルールか
Under rational expectations, a consistent policy based on rules will be anticipated
and incorporated into their behavior rationally by the public, and thus will not
have any effect on real economy averagely in the long run.
① Keynesian discretionary policy has an effect only when it is random. But it
becomes mal effect , because transmission lags are not anticipated correctly.
⇒ It abandoned stable money supply and adopted discretionary and arbitrary
interest rate control. ⇒ to cause the bubble
⇒ disturb market ⇒ rapid decrease in the money supply ⇒ deteriorate the
collapse of the bubble = failure of monetary policy
合理的期待⇒ルールに則った整合的な政策は公衆に合理的に予想されて織り込み済み
①ケインジアンの裁量政策は攪乱的政策(ランダムな政策)の場合にのみ効果をもつ、
波及ラグを正確に予見できないので逆効果
⇒安定的貨幣供給を放棄して恣意的・裁量的な金利操作
⇒バブルの重大要因
金融市場の価格変数である利子率を恣意的・裁量的に操作⇒市場攪乱
⇒急激な貨幣供給の減少⇒バブル崩壊を深刻化…金融政策の失敗
12B. METHODS OF MONETARY POLICY: RULES OR DISCRETION
金融政策方式:裁量かルールか
② New Monetarists’ Method based on Rules
⇒ stopped discretionary monetary policy and adopted stable money supply policy
based on rules
⇒ achieved price stability and economic stability in the late 1970s and the early
1980s
= k% rule
②ニューマネタリストのルール方式
⇒裁量政策を止め、ルールに基づく安定的貨幣供給政策
⇒70年代後半~80年代前半に物価安定(中央銀行の最高目標)や景気安
定を達成
=k%ルール
13. METHODS OF FISCAL POLICY: RULES OR DISCRETION
財政政策方式:裁量かルールか
①Keynesian Deficit Fiscal Policy
⇒Perpetuates the issuing of deficit bonds⇔discretionary increase in
deficits
⇒accumulation of huge amount of fiscal deficit(700 trillion yen in 2002
fiscal year)
⇒huge future tax burden
⇒suppress consumption⇒decrease in sales⇒decrease in profits
⇒decrease in investment⇒prolong deflation
Keynes⇒fiscal deficits in depression should be financed by fiscal surplus in
boom
①ケインジアン赤字財政政策
⇒赤字国債発行の恒常化⇔赤字の裁量的垂れ流し政策
⇒巨額の財政赤字累積(2002年度約700兆円)
⇒将来税負担の巨額化
⇒消費抑制効果⇒売上げ減少⇒利益減少
⇒設備投資の減少⇒デフレの長期化の要因
Keynes⇒不況時の財政赤字を好況時の財政黒字で補填しバランスを取る
13. METHODS OF FISCAL POLICY: RULES OR DISCRETION
財政政策方式:裁量かルールか
②New Monetarist’s Act of Balancing the Budget
Enact a rule of multi-year balanced budget as a law or constitution
Single-year balanced budget
⇒ Multi-year balanced budget
American Reagan administration enacted Gram=Radoman Act
…Clinton administration achieved a balanced budget
②ニューマネタリストの財政均衡化法
不況時に短期的に財政赤字になっても長期的には財政均衡化させる
ルールを制定
単年度均衡財政主義
⇒多年度均衡財政主義
米国グラム=ラドマン法…レーガン政権、クリントン政権で均衡化
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