EREADERS AND TABLETS Michael Brandon Sarah Icke Sooyeon Kim Daniel Sussman OVERVIEW I. The Industry Market Overview Competition Organization of Industry II. Pricing Intertemporal Pricing Versioning Two-Part Tariffs Information Pricing III. Analysis and Recommendations THE INDUSTRY DEFINING THE MARKET Tablets versus eReaders: Tablets have apps and TV shows Most tablets can function as eReaders, but most eReaders are not tablets Our conclusion: Combine the most popular of both markets for our analysis One industry, but two markets The market is… Still in growth stage Very concentrated with high barriers of entry Currently divided based on function and price EREADER/TABLET COMPETITORS Amazon Kindle Apple iPad Barnes and Noble NOOK Samsung Galaxy Tab Sony Reader No government regulation yet GLOBAL FIGURES: EREADERS eReaders Worldwide Units Shipped Year-to-year Growth 2011 4Q 3Q 2Q 25.6 Million 10.7 Million 6.5 Million 5.1 Million 200% 64.30% 165.90% 167% Source: International Data Corporation Global eReader sales in 2011 hit 25.6 Million units, doubling the total sold in 2010. In 2Q 2011, Kindle maintained a 51.7% market share in the eReader market, while the Barnes and Noble NOOK held the 2 nd most with 21.2%. Resulting 2Q 2011 Global HHI = 3122+ GLOBAL FIGURES: TABLETS 2011 In 2011, global Tablet sales reached 68.7 Million units, a yearover-year growth rate of 381.67%. Apple saw their market share take a hit in 4Q 2011 dropping from 61.5% to 54.7%. Much of this was due to the release of the Kindle Fire in November, which took 16.8% of 4Q market share. Worldwide Units Shipped Year-to-year Growth Apple sales Amazon sales Samsung sales B&N sales Pandigital sales HP sales ASUS sales 4Q 3Q 68.7Million 28.2 Million 18.1 Million 381.67% 155.00% 264.50% 15.4 Million 11.1 Million 4.7 Million N/A 1.6 Million 1.0 Million 1.0 Million 0.8 Million 0.7 Million 0.5 Million 0.9 Million 0.7 Million HHI (Global) 3326.47 3873.75 Source: International Data Corporation U.S. EREADER MARKET SHARE HHI (U.S.) 4337 U.S. TABLET MARKET SHARE HHI (U.S.) 3948 EBOOK INDUSTRY COMPETITORS Physical bookstores Online bookstores Tablets Smartphones Libraries THE TARGET MARKET Who do these companies target? What is the difference between tablet consumers and eReader consumers? eReader Ownership by Age 30 % Ownership 25 24 20 10 5 19 18 15 12 9 6 5 12 11 8 7 4 0 11/10 12/11 Demographics of eReader and Tablet owner s by age 1/12 Tablet Ownership by Age 30 27 25 % Ownership 24 20 15 15 14 10 5 10 8 6 AGES 6 4 0 7 5 2 11/10 12/11 18-29 30-49 50-64 1/12 65+ Source: Pew Research Center eReader Ownership by Education 35 30 30 % Ownership 25 EDUCATION LEVELS 20 19 15 16 10 5 14 12 5 0 4 6 8 5 11/10 6 6 12/11 1/12 Tablet Ownership by Education 35 30 31 % Ownership 25 20 15 10 8 5 0 18 17 4 3 10 7 4 11/10 Some High School 15 6 5 12/11 High School Some College 1/12 College Graduate Source: Pew Research Center Demographics of eReader and Tablet owner s by education level eReader Ownership by Income 35 30 31 % Ownership 25 20 21 19 15 10 0 13 12 9 5 4 3 6 INCOME LEVELS 19 8 3 11/10 12/11 1/12 Tablet Ownership by Income 40 35 36 % Ownership 30 25 20 22 20 15 16 10 9 5 0 4 3 3 8 10 8 4 11/10 12/11 < 30K 30K - 50K 50K - 75K 1/12 75K+ Source: Pew Research Center Demographics of eReader and Tablet owner s by income level ORGANIZATION OF THE INDUSTRY Producers range from book stores to electronics manufacturers to online retailers Companies produce their own eReader and have a store to purchase eBooks and applications from Once a consumer purchases an eReader from one company, they are tied to that company to purchase eBooks and apps DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS MAJOR COMPANIES AMAZON: Kindle, Kindle Touch, Kindle Fire APPLE: iPad 1, iPad 2, newest iPad BARNES & NOBLE: NOOK, NOOK Color, NOOK Tablet SONY: Sony Reader SAMSUNG: Samsung Galaxy Tab Online retailer that does not specialize in one product Kindle– November 2011 Kindle Touch– November 2011 Kindle Fire– November 2011 AMAZON Kindle Kindle Touch Kindle Fire Electronics Manufacturer specializing in products using the iOS operating system iPad– April 2010 iPad 2– March 2011 The new iPad– March 2012 APPLE iPad iPad 2 The new iPad Book retailer that started producing eReaders NOOK– November 2009 NOOK Color– November 2010 NOOK Tablet– November 2011 BARNES & NOBLE NOOK NOOK Color NOOK Tablet Electronics manufacturer 10 versions of the Reader First eReader on the market First sold through Borders and expanded to other retailers Sony Reader– First launched in September 2006 The latest model was released in 2011 SONY Sony Reader PRICING STRATEGIES Second Degree Pricing INTERTEMPORAL PRICING People value things differently depending on the point in time they will receive it Value now > Value later (Hyperbolic Discounting) eReader and Tablet companies exploit this discrepancy by marking up their product upon introduction Capture the consumer surplus of early -adopters They later lower their prices to reflect the reduction in value that occurs when the product leaves the initial market entry stage and more consumers begin to enter the market INTERTEMPORAL PRICING: EREADERS INTERTEMPORAL PRICING: EREADERS INTERTEMPORAL PRICING: EREADERS INTERTEMPORAL PRICING: EREADERS INTERTEMPORAL PRICING: EREADERS INTERTEMPORAL PRICING: TABLETS COMPETITION VS. MARKUP POWER VERSIONING Offer variations of eReaders at different prices Customers will self-select into sub-markets $79 KINDLE $99 KINDLE TOUCH $149 KINDLE TOUCH 3G $139 KINDLE K E Y B OA R D 3G $199 KINDLE FIRE $ 37 9 KINDLE DX $99 N OOK SI M P LE TOUC H $ 16 9 N OOK C OLOR $199 N OOK TA BLE T 8GB $ 24 9 N OOK TA BLE T 16 G B $499 I PA D 16 G B $599 I PA D 3 2 G B $699 I PA D 6 4 G B $629 I PA D 16 G B +4G $729 I PA D 3 2 G B +4G $829 I PA D 6 4 G B +4G $129 EREADER $399 TABLET S 16GB $499 TABLET S 32GB $549 TABLET P $349499 7.0” $599 7.7” $479 8.9” $499 -649 10.1” VERSIONING (CONT’D) Firms need to justify charging different prices for different versions This is done by varying the level of functionality in each version FUNCTIONALIT Y OVERLAP eReaders with a Touch Screen NOOK Simple Touch Kindle Touch Kindle Touch 3G Sony eReader eReaders with a Large Display Kindle DX Nook COLOR with “Tablet Essentials” Color display Apps and TV shows High storage but low battery life PRICE FUNCTIONALITY TWO-PART TARIFFS One-time large fee for the actual eReader or tablet followed by… Marginal costs of each individual eBook and app the consumer buys Tying of eReaders/tablets and apps AVERAGE PRICE OF EBOOK INFORMATION PRICING High initial fixed costs and sunk fees Prevention of arbitrage Network Effects Long-Tail Effect Lending Lock-In sales Cost leadership NUMBER OF EBOOKS IN AMAZON’S ELIBRARY OVER TIME EBOOK TRENDS Largest eBook and eReader combined libraries are Barnes & Noble and Amazon Most children’s picture books and graphic books are not available in eBook stores However, eBook retailers looking to expand into these areas eBook inventories are different across retailers; they sometimes do not carry the same eBooks Largest eBook library currently: Google with over 3 million eBooks EBOOK TRENDS Independent author books can be priced more cheaply in eBook edition than big name publishers’ books Different eBook formats exist. eReader apps are available on different company’s devices Linking up an eReader account on multiple computers and/or devices eBook retailers without accompanying eReader device Example: Google Play International Download Availability Book Green Eggs and Ham by Dr. Suess The Chronicles of Narnia by C.S. Lewis (all seven books) Scones and Bones by Laura Childs The Blood Sugar Solution by Mark Hyman The Lorax by Dr. Suess Extra Yarn by Mac Barnett Publication Date Children's Picture August 28th, N/A Books 1960 October 28th, Children's Series N/A 2001 #35 as of April 4th March 1st, Mass-Market Fiction (paperback only) 2011 #1 as of April 4th (hardcover February 28th, Advice & Misc. only) 2012 Children's Picture August 28th, #1 as of April 4th Books 1971 Children's Picture January 17th, #10 as of April 4th Books 2012 Genre NY Times Ranking Publisher Random House Publishing HarperCollins Publishers Penguin Group Little, Brown & Company Random House Publishing HarperCollins Publishers The Walking Dead, Book One by Robert Kirkman, Tony Moore, and Charlie Adlard Graphic books #1 as of April 4th (hardcover only) October 5th, 2010 Image Comics X-Men: Season One by Dennis Hopeless and Jamie McKelvie Graphic books #10 as of April 4th (hardcover only) March 13th, 2012 Marvel Enterprises, Inc. The Walking Dead Compendium by Robert Kirkman and Others Graphic books Flashpoint: Batman by Brian Azzarello and Eduardo Risso Graphic books #10 as of April 4th (paperback only) March 20th, 2012 DC Comics Sailor Moon Volume 4 by Naoko Takeuchi Manga #1 as of April 4th March 13th, 2012 Kodansha International Simple to Spectacular: How to Take One Basic Recipe to Four Levels of Sophistication by Jean-Georges Vongericten Cooking N/A October 28th, 2000 Crown Publishing Making Faces by Kevyn Aucoin Beauty and Health Was a New York Times Best Seller 1997 Little, Brown & Company #1 as of April 4th (paperback May 6th, 2009 only) Image Comics LENDING Only a select number of books are available for lending Books are lendable for certain periods of time Different lending options provided by each company Outsourcing Lending books through public libraries or other outlets Industry moving toward offering a larger scope of lendable books Increase Network Effects EBOOK PROMOTION PRICING Gifting Books Limited time offers “Weekly and Daily Deals” eBooks that are free for a limited time only Discounted best-sellers or currently popular books Free samples of every eBook Free literary classics THE COST LEADER: AMAZON Able to provide the cheapest eBook prices where applicable Lock-in sales to cause the consumer to invest in the Amazon environment An eBook download automatically downloads to the Amazon Cloud Kindle Reader app available for other tablets Book Other Retailer Price (Cheapest) Kindle Price Difference Genre Current NY Times Ranking Imagine by Jonah Lehrer $12.99 $9.59 $3.40 Non-Fiction #1 as of April 4th Lonely Planet Paris by Steve Fallon $10.44 $9.99 $0.45 Travel N/A Pride and Prejudice by Jane Austen $0.99 $0.00 $0.99 Fiction N/A Heaven is for Real by Todd Burpo $8.49 $4.98 $3.51 Non-Fiction #1 as of April 4th (paperback only) Go The _ To Sleep by Adam Mansbach $5.15 $4.61 $0.54 Advice & Misc. #15 as of April 4th (hardcover only) The Hunger Games by Suzanne Collins $8.49 $5.00 $3.49 Children's Series #1 as of April 4th Redwood Bend by Robyn Carr $3.50 $3.49 $0.01 Fiction #13 as of April 4th (ebook only) Unfinished Business by Nora Roberts $3.49 $2.99 $0.50 Fiction #22 as of April 4th (ebook only) Why Me? By Sarah Burleton $3.99 $2.99 $1.00 Non-Fiction #8 as of April 4th (ebook only) Jane Eyre by Charlotte Bronte $3.99 $0.00 3.99 Fiction N/A Communication Law by John D. Zelezny Lending: $82.98 Lending: $39.66 $43.32 Textbook N/A The Politics of China: Sixty Years of The People's Republic of China by Roderick MacFarquhar $32.76 $21.45 $11.31 Non-Fiction N/A The Kind Diet by Alicia Silverstone $9.99 $8.53 $1.46 Advice & Misc. N/A THE FUTURE… Google Nexus Tablet (July 2012) Rumors about an iPad Mini Large barriers of entry are making it hard for competitors to enter the market, however because the industry is growing… we expect more competitors to release eReaders ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS LOWER EBOOK PRICES Tablet takeover? Lower Tablet prices A cautionary tale: Netbooks Bookstores come full-circle LOWER EBOOK PRICES An antitrust lawsuit alleged that Apple colluded with 5 major publishers: HarperCollins Hachette Simon & Schuster Penguin MacMillan Wsj.com COLLUSION Wholesale Model Agency Model Used for traditional books Lets the retailer set prices Amazon initially offered eBooks for $9.99 to spark eReader sales The publisher controls the prices that consumers see The agent receives a commission and a “mostfavored-nation” agreement "We told the publishers, 'We'll go to the agency model, where you set the price, and we get our 30%, and yes, the customer pays a little more, but that's what you want anyway'” -Steve Jobs Wsj.com COLLUSION Publishers approached retailers and demanded to use the Agency structure This raised eBook prices across all retailers, including Amazon PENDING SETTLEMENT 3 out of 5 publishers have agreed to settle Terminates anti-competitive agreement Pricing power back in the hands of retailers ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Lower eBook prices TABLET TAKEOVER? Lower Tablet prices A cautionary tale: Netbooks Bookstores come full-circle TABLET TAKEOVER? eReader manufacturers are releasing Tablets and eReaders with Tablet capabilities Over time, consumers have gained understanding of eReaders and Tablets TABLET TAKEOVER? eMarketer.com TABLET TAKEOVER? eReaders stripped down to basic capabilities Price discrimination eReaders marketed to heavy readers, while Tablets have much wider appeal Apple eReader? A base model with simple capabilities might increase ability to keep charging high prices for iPad Similar to iPod Nano and Shuffle releases TABLET TAKEOVER? Not quite a computer No Keyboard Not quite a cell-phone Lack of ease-of-portability TABLET TAKEOVER? Companies entering the Tablet market: Google* Dell HP Toshiba Lenovo LG HTC Blackberry Motorola Vizio CNet.com Google Correlate ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Lower eBook prices Tablet takeover? LOWER TABLET PRICES A cautionary tale: Netbooks Bookstores come full-circle LOWER TABLET PRICES Increased competition within Tablet market Competitive pressure from firms previously only in eReader market Amazon Barnes and Noble Device subsidized by purchase of tied goods: Books, movies, and music ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Lower eBook prices Tablet takeover? Lower Tablet prices A CAUTIONARY TALE: NETBOOKS Bookstores come full-circle A CAUTIONARY TALE: NETBOOKS Allthingsd.com A CAUTIONARY TALE: NETBOOKS Increased competition led to less perceived differentiation Features can be imitated, quality cannot Research and Development: Away from developing new features Toward improving existing ones Comparative Flexible screen technology Samsung acquired Liquavista Operating systems ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Lower eBook prices Tablet takeover? Lower Tablet prices A cautionary tale: Netbooks BOOKSTORES COME FULL-CIRCLE IBISWorld BOOKSTORES COME FULL-CIRCLE Larger retailers moving more towards online sales of physical books and eBooks Will begin closing brick-and-mortar stores Need still exists for “bookstore experience” Mom-and-pop shops will flourish, industry goes full circle QUESTIONS? THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME!