‘White flight’?: Opposition to
Diversity and Mobility Decisions
in Britain, 1991‐2012
Diversity and the White Working Class in England and Wales
Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris,
Birkbeck College
e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk
White Flight?: Existing evidence base
• USA: white preference effects whilst controlling
for socio/economic individual & neighborhood
characteristics (Crowder & South, 2000)
• Europe: White avoidance rather than flight
(Brama, 2006)
• UK: No white flight; counter-urbanisation- but
lower class whites significantly more likely to
leave diverse areas than lower class mne
residents, especially in London (Catney &
Simpson, 2010)
White Flight or Race-Proxy
Hypothesis?
'Although the optimal approach for
answering questions about
motivations would be to use
longitudinal data that measure both
attitudes and behavior at the
individual level, these data do not
exist' (Krysan 2002)
Data
• Uses 18 waves of BHPS and waves 1 & 2 of
Understanding Society to create a cross-sectional
data set with person years as unit of analysis
(n=192171)
• Attached to geo-referenced data at ward-level
(linearly interpolated using 1991/2001/2011
census) to capture MNE population, deprivation
(Carstairs) and population density.
• Ward-level diversity measured in Simpson’s
quintiles in which each quintile contains a fifth of
the mne population (concentration)
Diversity seeker/avoider?
• Single renters were more likely to move to
more diverse wards
• Ethnicity a significant predictor of move away
from diversity
• BUT attitudinal traits (i.e. white x
conservatism) not significant
• White working class residents more likely to
move to less diverse wards than white
upper/middle class
Predicted probabilities of move
towards/away from diversity
BSPS/Understanding Soc. Summary
• Whites more likely than minorities to move from
more diverse areas after controlling for
deprivation and population density
• Once the decision has been made to move whites
tend to move away from diversity after
controlling for population density and deprivation
• The question remains how much of this is driven
by the mobility preferences of MNE v White
respondents
Role of White Racial Attitudes
• USA MCSUI study 1994: Krysan 2002; Clark
2006
• Netherlands replication: van der Londen 2012
• UK replication ongoing (Peach et. al)
• We commissioned survey, YouGov tracker,
August 2013. Approx 1900 sample, UK-wide.
Matched questions.
Comfort Thresholds: Nation and Locale
• Neighbourhood (current) – when did you
begin to feel uncomfortable
• Neighbourhood (prospective) – when would
you begin to feel uncomfortable
• GB (current) – when did
• GB (prospective) – when would
A. Which of the following statements best describes your views about the number of people
from ethnic minorities living in [your neighbourhood] [Britain]?
<1> I will always be comfortable with the number of people from ethnic minorities living in my neighbourhood
<2> If the number of people from ethnic minorities increases I might feel uncomfortable at some point
<3> If the number of people from ethnic minorities decreases I might feel uncomfortable at some point
<4 fixed> Don’t know
B. When do you think you would start to feel uncomfortable about the number of people from
ethnic minorities living in your neighbourhood? Would it be when people from ethnic
minorities made up roughly . . .?
<1> More than three quarters (over 75%) of all people in your neighbourhood
<2> Three quarters of all people (75%) in your neighbourhood
<3> Two thirds of all people (66%) in your neighbourhood……..
<12> I am uncomfortable with any people from ethnic minorities living in my neighbourhood
Racism
• How comfortable or uncomfortable do you
think you would feel if the following people
you may come into contact with were from an
ethnic minority? [The Prime Minister]:
– 32.3% of white British ‘very’ or ‘fairly’
uncomfortable (N = 1,638)
Immigration
• Do you think the number of immigrants coming
to Britain nowadays should be increased, reduced
or should it remain the same?
–
–
–
–
–
–
<1>
<2>
<3>
<4>
<5>
<6>
Increased a lot
Increased a little
Remain the same
Reduced a little
Reduced a lot
Don’t know
2.26%
2.69%
15.32%
18.50%
56.72%
4.52%
• Local Council Wards in the UK have a population of about
10,000 to 30,000 people. Have you moved Local Council
Ward to live somewhere new at any time in the past ten
years?
– <1> No
– <2> Yes
– <3> Don’t know
66.24% (1085)
28.39% (465)
5.37% (88)
• As far as you know, did the last Local Council Ward in
which you lived have…?
– <1> More people from an ethnic minority background than
the ward I now live in now
37.4% (174)
– <2> Fewer people from an ethnic minority background than
the ward I now live in now
22.8% (106)
– <3> About the same number of people from an ethnic
minority background than the ward I now live in now
23.2% (108)
– <4> Don’t know
16.6% (77)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Ethnic Threshold and Inter-Ward
Move Type, 2013, White British Only,
N=384
White Flight'
Gentrification
Same Diversity
Any mix
OK
66+
50
17-25
2-10%
<1%
Conclusion
• Ward Comfort Threshold predicts move to less vs. more
diverse ward, but sig. only for those with low threshold.
Bivariate pseudo R2 of .03 in overall sample; .10 among
those stating a threshold. Only significant individual-level
predictor apart from party vote.
• Weak predictor of ‘white flight’ – signed in expected
direction but not significant. Zero-order pseudo R2 of .01.
• Bottom Line: White comfort threshold matters for
mobility choice, but only at the margins (1/5 of movers,
5% of respondents)
• Weak footprint in BSPS and longitudinal data
• BUT ethnic differences important for predicting moves to
and from diversity (30% diff). Suggests cultural
preferences or race-proxy effects more important than
white ethnocentrism for sustaining segregation patterns.