Pelatihan :
Techniques in Active Tectonic Study
Juni 20-Juli 2, 2013
Instruktur: Prof. J Ramon Arrowsmith (JRA)
Dari Arizona State University (ASU) - US
Tempat Pelaksanaan:
Ruang Pangea, Laboratorium Gempabumi (LabEarth)
– Puslit Geoteknologi LIPI dan Kuliah lapangan akan
dilakukan disekitar Sesar Lembang, Jawa Barat.
* Lebih jelas baca TOR/KAK dan daftar acara
L'Aquila
earthquake and
verdict
Jordan, et al., 2011; http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5350/5371
Accumulated links
Operational Earthquake Forecasting – State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization - ICEF report
http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5350/5371
News reports:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/10/20121022151851442575.html
http://www.livescience.com/24173-laquila-earthquake-manslaughter-verdict-condemned.html
Tom Jordan gave a very good interview on NPR: http://www.npr.org/2012/10/23/163499530/italian-seismologistsconvicted-of-manslaughter
Time Magazine: http://world.time.com/2012/10/24/the-aquila-earthquake-verdict-where-the-guilt-may-really-lie/
Scientific journal and blog commentary:
Nature: http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110914/full/477264a.html
Trembling Earth blog: http://tremblingearth.wordpress.com/2012/10/23/conviction-of-italian-seismologists-anuanced-warning/
Highly Allochthonous blog: http://all-geo.org/highlyallochthonous/2009/04/foreshocks-and-aftershocks-of-theitalian-earthquake/
Statements:
Joint statement from the British Royal Society and National Academy of Sciences: http://www.nasonline.org/newsand-multimedia/news/2012_10_25_Joint_Statement_NAS-RS_Italian_Earthquake_Scientists.html
AAAS had issued a statement earlier in the trial - and they may be considering an update:
http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2010/media/0630italy_letter.pdf
AGU, GSA and EGU have released statements:
http://www.agu.org/news/press/pr_archives/2012/2012-46.shtml
http://www.geosociety.org/news/pr/12-76.htm
http://www.egu.eu/inside-egu/divisions-and-present-officers/division-seismology/home.html
Some papers and reports
Chiaraluce, et al. The anatomy of the 2009
L’Aquila normal fault system… JGR, 2011
http://www.agu.org/journals/jb/jb1112/2011JB
008352/2011JB008352.pdf
EERI report on the earthquake:
https://www.eeri.org/site/images/lfe/pdf/laquil
a-eq-report.pdf
…there are many more
The
seismicity
Chiaraluce, et al. The anatomy of
the 2009 L’Aquila normal fault
system… JGR, 2011
http://www.haisentitoilterremoto.it/repository
/2206496920/index.html
Felt reports of L’Aquila
main shock
Seismicity sequence
http://all-geo.org/highlyallochthonous/2009/04/foreshocks-and-aftershocks-of-the-italian-earthquake/
Chiaraluce, et al. The anatomy of the 2009 L’Aquila normal fault system… JGR, 2011
Chiaraluce, et al. The anatomy of the 2009 L’Aquila normal fault system… JGR, 2011
Chiaraluce, et al. The anatomy of the 2009 L’Aquila normal fault system… JGR, 2011
Spatial and temporal
evolution of the foreshock
sequence
Serial cross sections
through the seismicity
show activation of mostly
west dipping
Appenine/Abruzzo faults
Chiaraluce, et al. The anatomy of
the 2009 L’Aquila normal fault
system… JGR, 2011
Time
independent
earthquake
forecast for Italy
based on
instrumental and
historic seismicity
and
paleoseismology.
probabilistic seismic hazard map for
Italy: ground acceleration with a 10%
probability of exceedance in 50 years
Jordan, et al., 2011;
http://www.annalsofgeophysics.
eu/index.php/annals/article/vie
w/5350/5371
Lessons of L'Aquila for Operational
Earthquake Forecasting
Presented by Tom Jordan, Director of the Southern
California Earthquake Center (SCEC) and the W.M.
Keck Foundation Professor of Earth Sciences at USC
http://www.seismosoc.org/italy/
OEF (10:20-11:50):
-Continual updating of authoritative
information about future
occurrence of potentially damaging
earthquakes
-The officially sanctioned
dissemination of this information to
enhance earthquake preparedness
in threatened communities
Earthquake probabilities
-Probabilities of large earthquakes
(even in areas of high seismicity)
are low <<1%/day
-High gain-low probability situations
(100-1000x)
Lessons of L'Aquila for Operational
Earthquake Forecasting
Presented by Tom Jordan, Director of the Southern
California Earthquake Center (SCEC) and the W.M.
Keck Foundation Professor of Earth Sciences at USC
http://www.seismosoc.org/italy/
L’Aquila (12:40-14:20)
-probability of a false alarm > failure
to predict (100x)
-seismic activity had increased
probability of a large event by
~100x
-Scientists enticed into addressing a
simple yes-no question (“will we be
hit by a large earthquake?”)
-Reassuring statements widely
interpreted to be an anti-alarm
Lessons of L'Aquila for Operational
Earthquake Forecasting
Presented by Tom Jordan, Director of the Southern
California Earthquake Center (SCEC) and the W.M.
Keck Foundation Professor of Earth Sciences at USC
http://www.seismosoc.org/italy/
Recommendations (14:20-16:49)
-Separate role of scientific advisors
(objective information about
natural hazards) from that of civil
decision makers (weigh benefits of
protective actions with costs of
false alarms, other political
considerations)
-Use probabilistic rather than
deterministic statements in
characterizing short term changes
in seismic hazards (e.g.
meteorological community)
Membership:
Dr. Terry Tullis, Chair
Brown University
Dr. Ramon Arrowsmith
Arizona State University
Dr. Nick Beeler
USGS, Menlo Park, California
Dr. David Jackson
University of California, Los Angeles
Dr. Bruce Shaw
Columbia University
Dr. William Ellsworth
USGS, Menlo Park, California
Dr. Evelyn Roeloffs
USGS, Vancouver, Washington
Dr. John Vidale
University of Washington
Dr. Andrew Michael
USGS, Menlo Park, California
Also, CEPEC: California
Earthquake Prediction
Evaluation Council
Dr. Allan Rubin
Princeton University
Roland Burgmann
University of California, Berkeley
Dr. Bill Leith, Co-chair, ex officio
Senior Science Advisor for Earthquake and Geologic Hazards
and Coordinator, Earthquake Hazards Program
USGS, Reston, Virginia
Dr. Michael Blanpied, Executive Secretary
Associate Coordinator, Earthquake Hazards Program
USGS, Reston, Virginia
statement regarding California’s
Immunity from Liability for Earthquake
Predictions
955.1. The science of earthquake prediction is
developing rapidly and, although still largely in a
research stage, such predictions are now being
initiated and are certain to continue into
the future… It is the intent of this legislation to
ensure that such actions are taken in the public
interest by government agencies acting in a
responsible manner without fear of consequent
financial liabilities.
-from John Parrish, California State Geologist
statement regarding California’s
Immunity from Liability for Earthquake
Predictions
The state and its agencies and employees shall
not be liable for any injury resulting from the
issuance or non-issuance of a warning pursuant
to this subdivision or for any acts or omissions in
fact gathering, evaluation, or other activities
leading up to the issuance or non-issuance of a
warning.
-from John Parrish, California State Geologist