The road to extinction is paved with good intentions:
Can hatchery and natural salmon co-exist?
Rachel C. Johnson
Cramer Fish Sciences &
University of California Davis
Salmon of the past
Chinook salmon runs
Extinct
At Risk
Special concern
Low or No Risk
Sabertooth salmon, Oncorhynchus rastrosus
Twelve million years ago
400 pounds; 8-10 feet in length
Not Evaluated
California salmon in the present
Adult Spawn Time
Evolutionarily
Significant Units
Fall run
Candidate
Late Fall run
Candidate
Winter run
Endangered
Spring run
Threatened
Steelhead
Threatened
J A S
O
N D J
F
M
A M
J
Data sources: Vogel and Marine, 1991; Hallock, 1983; CDFG, 1993
California Chinook salmon trend
Estimated spawner escapement
2,000,000
Dams
1,000,000
Habitat
500,000
400,000
300,000
Harvest
200,000
100,000
1850
1950
2000
Year
Courtesy of Joe Merz, Cramer Fish Sciences
Hatcheries
Reliance on hatcheries for harvest
wild contribution
90% ± 6%
2002
Barnett-Johnson et al.,
2007. Canadian Journal
of Fisheries and Aquatic
Sciences
Reliance on hatcheries for harvest
wild contribution
Wild (Hatchery)
90% ± 6%
52%
2002
2010
Barnett-Johnson et al.,
2007. Canadian Journal
of Fisheries and Aquatic
Sciences
Kormos et al., 2012.
Fisheries Branch
Administrative Report
55%
2011
Palmer-Zwahlen and
Kormos. 2013. Fisheries
Branch Administrative
Report
‘Optimal’ hatchery releases for harvest
Coleman National Fish Hatchery
2011 Ocean Recoveries
recoveries per 100,000 released
1,200
1,000
Bay releases
In-river releases
800
600
400
200
0
2007
2008
2009
Brood years
Data source: Palmer-Zwahlen & Kormos. 2013
‘Non-Optimal’ consequence to natural salmon
recoveries per 100,000 released
Stray
Homing
Bay releases
In-river releases
Brood years
Brood years
Coleman National Fish Hatchery 2011 Recovery rates
Data source: Palmer-Zwahlen & Kormos 2013
Fitness Effects and Domestication selection
Hatchery fish spawning in the wild…
40% reduction in fitness
per captive generation
Araki et al. 2007 Science
Hatchery fish spawning in hatcheries...
Double lifetime reproductive
success compared to wild
spawned in captivity
Christie et al. 2012 PNAS
Where do the un-harvested hatchery fish return?
Wild (Hatchery)
Wild (Hatchery)
2002
2010
2011
Battle
BAT (CNH)
Creek
Mill Creek
MIL/DEE
Deer
Creek
FRH (FRH)
Feather
American
AME (NIH)
90% ± 6%
55%
52%
Mokelumne
MOK (MOH)
Stanislaus
STA
~870,000
~160,000
~230,000
Escapement
Data sources: Barnett-Johnson et al. 2007, Kormos et al. 2012,
Palmer-Zwahlen and Kormos. 2013, Grandtab 2013
Tuolumne
TUO
Merced
MER (MEH)
Hatchery-origin fish return to hatcheries
2010
Coleman
Hatchery
origin
Natural
origin
Feather
Nimbus
Mokelumne
Merced
Fall run Chinook salmon escapement to hatcheries
Data source: Kormos et al. 2013, Palmer-Zwahlen & Kormos. 2013
Hatchery-origin fish return to hatcheries
2010
Coleman
Coleman
Hatchery
origin
Natural
origin
Feather
Nimbus
Nimbus
Feather
Mokelumne
Mokelumne
Merced
Fall run Chinook salmon escapement to hatcheries
Data source: Kormos et al. 2013, Palmer-Zwahlen & Kormos. 2013
Many hatchery fish spawn in rivers
2010
2011
Butte
Creek
Clear
Creek
Clear
Creek
Upper
Sacramento
Upper
Sacramento
Feather River
Feather River
60%
Hatchery
origin
Natural
origin
Cottonwood
Creek
Yuba
River
0
American
River
Mokelumne
River
Stanislaus
River
Merced River
Tuolumne
River
Butte
Creek
70%
Hatchery
origin
Natural
origin
Yuba
River
American
River
Mokelumne
River
Stanislaus
River
Merced River
Tuolumne
River
Integrated Hatchery Guidelines
Goal
Minimize hatchery-origin
spawners in the wild
(pHOS)
Hatchery Scientific Review
Group Criteria
pHOS < 30%
Maximize natural-origin
broodstock in hatchery
(pNOB)
pNOB > 10%
Maximize proportionate
natural influence (PNI).
pNOB/(pHOS+pNOB) > 50%
Assessment of California’s hatcheries & rivers
2010
Hatchery and River
2011
PNOB PHOS PNI > PNOB PHOS PNI >
> .10 <.30
.50 > .10
CNFH/Upper Sacramento
0.11
0.46 0.19
Feather River Hatchery/Feather River
0.05
0.78 0.06
Nimbus Hatchery/American River
0.21
0.32 0.40
Mokelumne hatchery/Mokelumne River
0.10
0.73 0.12
Merced Hatchery/Merced River
0.22
0.78 0.21
Clear Creek
0.04
Cottonwood Creek
Butte Creek
0.11
Yuba River
0.71
Stanislaus River
0.50
Tuolumne River
0.49
<.30
.50
.11
0.27
0.29
.04
0.90
0.04
.23
0.66
0.25
.12
0.88
0.02
.11
0.89
0.11
0.08
0.58
0.07
0.65
0.83
0.73
Assessment of California’s hatcheries & rivers
2010
Hatchery and River
2011
PNOB PHOS PNI > PNOB PHOS PNI >
> .10 <.30
.50 > .10
CNFH/Upper Sacramento
0.11
0.46 0.19
Feather River Hatchery/Feather River
0.05
0.78 0.06
Nimbus Hatchery/American River
0.21
0.32 0.40
Mokelumne hatchery/Mokelumne River
0.10
0.73 0.12
Merced Hatchery/Merced River
0.22
0.78 0.21
Clear Creek
0.04
Cottonwood Creek
Butte Creek
0.11
Yuba River
0.71
Stanislaus River
0.50
Tuolumne River
0.49
<.30
.50
.11
0.27
0.29
.04
0.90
0.04
.23
0.66
0.25
.12
0.88
0.02
.11
0.89
0.11
0.08
0.58
0.07
0.65
0.83
0.73
Extinction risk due to hatchery influence
% Hatchery spawners
Strays from within basin
High risk
Moderate risk
Low risk
Generation
Generations
In Lindley et al. 2007
Interior Columbia Basin Tech. Recovery Team 2005
Majority of salmon spawn in natural areas
900,000
Hatchery spawners
In-river spawners
800,000
Number of fall-run
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Years
Grandtab 2013
Majority of salmon spawn in natural areas
900,000
Hatchery spawners
In-river spawners
800,000
Number of fall-run
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Years
Grandtab 2013
Cohort replacement
Cohort replacement rates of natural populations
Conclusions
• Off-site releases- harvest vs. straying
• Identification of hatchery fish
• HSRG criteria currently unmet for hatcheries
• Hatchery strays contribute to ‘high’ risk of extinction
• Management scenarios
Thanks!
Special thanks to:
Brett Kormos & Melodie Palmer-Zwahlen
California Department of Fish and Wildlife
Ocean Salmon Project
Hatchery Scientific Review Group’s
Issues/Recommendations (14)
1. Issue: Off-site releases promote unacceptable levels of straying
among populations
Recommendation: In-river release of juvenile hatchery production
2. Issue: Marking/tagging programs are needed for real-time
identification of all hatchery Chinook salmon
Recommendation: Tag 100% of hatchery production with codedwire-tags and 25% should be adipose fin-clipped
3. Issue: Harvest management of fall-run Chinook salmon should
account for productivity of naturally spawning adults
Recommendation: Revise harvest rate to explicitly account for the
status and productivity of fall Chinook salmon spawning in natural
areas
California Hatchery Review Project, June 2012
Genetically distinct ‘ecotypes’ in Lake
Washington
Deep-bodied beach type
Slender river type
Science 2000
Hatchery-origin fish do return to hatcheries
2010
2011
Coleman
Coleman
Hatchery
origin
Natural
origin
Feather
Feather
Nimbus
Mokelumne
Nimbus
Mokelumne
Merced
Fall run Chinook salmon escapement to hatcheries
Data source: Kormos et al. 2013, Palmer-Zwahlen & Kormos. 2013
Merced
Many hatchery fish spawn in rivers
2010
Butte
Creek
Clear
Creek
Upper
Sacramento
Feather River
Hatchery
origin
Natural
origin
Yuba
River
American
River
Mokelumne
River
Stanislaus
River
Merced River
Tuolumne
River
California Chinook salmon trend
Estimated spawner escapement
2,000,000
Dams
1,000,000
Habitat
500,000
400,000
300,000
Harvest
200,000
100,000
1850
1950
2000
Year
Courtesy of Joe Merz, Cramer Fish Sciences
Hatcheries