Participatory Modelling of Wellbeing
Tradeoffs in Coastal Kenya
Tradeoffs, optimising and thinking outside
the triangle
Tim Daw, Sara Coulthard, William Cheung, Kate Brown,
Tim McClanahan, Diego Galafassi, Caroline Abunge,
Johnstone Omukoto Omuhaya, Garry Peterson, Carlos
Ruiz, Amini Tengeza, Lydiah Munyi
Ecosystem Services and Well-being
Natural
Capital
‘Unnatural
Capital’:
-Markets
-Values
Potential
Benefits
‘WB Context’:
Basic needs &
Human
aspirations
Wellbeing
Access &
Distribution
Goods
Labour
Technology
‘Multipliers’
• Millennium Assessment definition is about WB
• Relationship is poorly understood and contingent
on many factors
• Aggregated analysis can’t say much about WB
Trade-offs in Ecosystem Services (&
Fisheries)
• Common focus on win-win
– Alignment between conservation, and wellbeing
• Trade-offs often not considered
• Wins & losses for particular groups may be
hidden
The case study
Mombasa
National
Marine Park
Mombasa
5 km
Aim: to test a framework to identify trade-offs between ES
and wellbeing of different stakeholders
Participatory
processes
(workshop
activities)
-Social-ecological
system models
-Scenarios
Kenyan
Case
study
Wellbeing
Research
(focus groups)
Ecological
Modeling
Ecological modelling
Ecological
Modeling
Two biophysical models of the reef/fishery
- Ecopath with Ecosim
- Stella model of reef dynamics
Specific Questions
• Ecosystem service delivery
• Fish
• Environmental quality
•Effects of fishing by different gears
4
Piscivores
Lut 12
Diodontidae
Lab 12 Lab 24 Lut 0
Lab 0
Macro-invertivore
Bal 24 fish
Bal 12
Lobster
Bal 0
Chaetodontidae
PomnthPomnth
0
Pomnth
12
24
3
Lut 24
Mull 0
Mull 12
Octopus
Mull 24
Micro-invertivores fish
Planktivores
Corallivore invertebrates
Pomacentridae
Acanth 12
2
Sig 0
AcanthSig
0 12
Acanth 24
Algivore invertebrates
Scar 0 Scar 12Scar 24
Macro-detritivores
Microinvertebrates
Detritivore invertebrates
Zooplankton
Sig 24
Massive corals
Branching corals
1
Ecopath network model
Foliose algae
Turf algae
Microplankton
Calcifying algae
Seagrass
Detritus
Tradeoffs in the fishery (Ecopath optimisations)
Economic
Profits
Ecological
status
Food
production
Beach
Seine
But what are the
wellbeing implications of
these trade-offs?
Other
Gears
Wellbeing research
Wellbeing
research
• Focus on fisheries stakeholders
–
–
–
–
–
Multi-gear users (hand line,
spear
nets, traps),
Things
thatgun,
are important
for
Beach seine fishermen Money living well
Good job
Beach seine captains
‘A developmental mind’
Women fishmongers
(knowledge, education)
Savings
Male fish traders
Property
Donor/ start capital
Decision-making capacity
Planning
Good fishing gears
Health
Good neighbours
• What is wellbeing for these people?
• How easy is it to be well?
Implications for different markets
• Different stakeholders rely on different types
of fish.
– ‘Mama karangas’ buy small fish (mostly caught by
beach seine) to process and sell to local residents
– A better ecological condition would result in larger
fish which would enter higher value markets e.g.
hotels.
Participatory
processes
Participatory
Processes
• Secondary stakeholders
(government, NGOs,
representatives)
• Conceptual model’
of the broader system
• Trends, drivers,
possible future
scenarios & surprises
System modelling
• Fuzzy logic system model implemented in
Excel
• Iteration with stakeholders who provided
improvements
Trade-offs as described by ‘Toy Model’
• Optimise for
1 group or
objective
• Try to
balance for 2
groups, or
objectives
• Is there a
tradeoff?
What shape?
What the model can explore
Balancing/
optimising
Alternative jobs
in Economy
Beach Seine
Effort
• What about changing the system?
• What about human agency, responses and
feedback in the system?
• What about other stakeholders, other
variables?
Drivers
A
B
Scenarios
Effects
Politics
Economy
One offs
Gears
Demand
Immigration
Tourism
Top down
Low
Global slowdown
No BS
Low
Low
Ltd investment
Less emphasis ind. Rights
Low climate change
Strong env. Lobby and regulation
aquaculture
• Stakeholder conceptual model
• Drivers exercise
• Secondary data
Strong ind. Rights
Low growth
Drought
Populist policies
Land tenure given
High participation/decentr.
healthcare + education
BS
High
High
Less
Mix
High
High
Expansion
Ring nets,
migrants,
locals?
Low fish
price
low?
pressure on services
Eutrophication?
C
Pro business govt.
Booming
Infrastructure
Low tax
Foreign investment
Conflict risk
Inequality
Pollution?
Beach erosion
D
Accountable
Growth
Fisheries infrastructure
Mombasa visitors
Outcomes
Bleaching
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
A
Catch
Fisherman
Fish Types
High
Low catch, high CPUE
Low
High and quality
Low
High
High
Low quality
Med
Med catch, high CPUE
Med
Med quality
?
High and variable
Low-reef, high off-shore
high quality, large
B
1,000,000
C
500,000
D
0
Ecology
Past trend
• Explore Scenarios with primary and secondary
stakeholders
– Likelihood
– Implications for wellbeing
– Winners and losers
– Responses
• Finally policy options considering all the
above...
Policy Responses to the Scenarios,
considering trade-offs
• Example group discussion
on Scenario C: Growth
– Action: Enforce regulations
– Losers: Beach seine fishers
and women fishmongers
– Facilitate alternative livelihoods
– Women fishmongers are marginalised and hard to
integrate into alternatives
– Response: legislation to promote access to fish for
women fishmongers, or fish prices
– Resultant trade-off: Fishermen and women
fishmongers
Conclusions
• Trade-offs and modelling lens to understand
hard choices within the system
– Explicitly consider trade-offs
• A wellbeing angle emphasises trade offs
between different groups
– Identify most vulnerable to change
– Identify groups likely to block change
• Scenarios allow thinking outside the model
– additional variables and stakeholders
– consideration of how to ‘transform’ the system
Thinking outside the triangle...
Many thanks
• Ecosystem Services and Poverty Allevaition
(ESPA programme)
• Wildlife Conservation Society
• KMFRI, Kenyan Fisheries Department, Kenya
Wildlife Services
• All workshop and focus group participants