Council of Asian Liberals and Democrats – Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Bi-Annual Conference The Global Economy : Successes and Lessons from Asia and Europe “Sri Lanka – Experiences and Lessons Learnt” Prof Rajiva Wijesinha 14 November 2010 at Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 1 The world faced many challenges during 2007/2008 World food prices increased rapidly. Equity Markets (March 2000 = 100, National Currency) Global energy prices rose to unprecedented levels. The US subprime mortgage market crisis quickly engulfed the entire world, quickly resulting in the global financial crisis. 9/11 Subprime crisis Global market liquidity dried-up and reversal of capital and financial flows was observed. Governments pumped billions of US dollars into their economies in a coordinated effort to stem the impact of the crisis. Source: IMF International (FAO) Food Price Index (1998 – 2000 = 100) 240 220 2006 2007 2008 2005 200 180 Global unemployment sharply increased. 160 140 120 100 J F M A M J J A S O N D Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) 2 Sri Lanka too was faced with its unique set of challenges during 2007/2008 10 5 As external borrowing became difficult, the Government had to rely heavily on domestic borrowing, thus creating a crowding out effect. Year-on-year Dec-08 Sep-08 Jun-08 Mar-08 Dec-07 Sep-07 The budget deficit increased. Jun-07 0 Mar-07 Government revenue was lower than expected. 15 Dec-06 Domestic economy activities slowed down. 20 Sep-06 fueling high inflation. 25 Jun-06 Domestic food prices increased rapidly, thus 30 Mar-06 decades intensified. Colombo Consumers’ Price Index (% change) Dec-05 The civil war that was raging for over 2 ½ Annual Average Source: Department of Census and Statistics Overall Budget Deficit (As a % of GDP) 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -7.0 -7.0 -6.9 -7.0 -10.0 -9.9 -12.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (P) Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka 3 5.0 6.0 Sri Lanka too was faced with its unique set of challenges during 2007/2008 5.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 country’s reserves reduced alarmingly. Gross Official Reserves (Left Axis) Oct-09 Sep-09 Aug-09 Jul-10 Jul-09 Jun-10 Months of Imports6.0 (Righ 6.0 Months of Imports (Right Axis) 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 7.0 7.0 4.0 4.0 3.0slowed down to 3.5% in The economic growth3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 GrossOfficial OfficialReserves Reserves (Left (LeftAxis) Axis) Gross Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Jun-09 Apr-09 Jul-10 Jul-10 May-09 Feb-09 May-10 May-10 Mar-09 Jun-10 Jun-10 Dec-08 Mar-10 Mar-10 Jan-09 Apr-10 Apr-10 Oct-08 Jan-10 Jan-10 Nov-08 Feb-10 Feb-10 Aug-08 Nov-09 Nov-09 Sep-08 Dec-09 Dec-09 Jun-08 Sep-09 Sep-09 Jul-08 Oct-09 Oct-09 Apr-08 Jul-09 Jul-09 May-08 Aug-09 Aug-09 May-09 Feb-08 May-09 Mar-08 Jun-09 Jun-09 2.0 2.0 Apr-09 Jan-08 Apr-09 Mar-09 Mar-09 Feb-09 Feb-09 Jan-09 Jan-09 Dec-08 Dec-08 Nov-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Sep-08 0.0 0.0 Jul-08 Jul-08 0.0 Aug-08 Aug-08 0.0 0.0 Jun-08 Jun-08 1.0 1.0 May-08 May-08 1.0 Apr-08 Apr-08 1.0 1.0 Mar-08 Mar-08 2.0 Feb-08 Feb-08 2.0 2.0 Jan-08 Jan-08 Dec-09 1.0 Months Monthsof ofImports Imports 0.0 May-10 Jun-09 Apr-09 Apr-10 May-09 Mar-09 Mar-10 Gross Official Reserves (Left Axis) Feb-10 Jan-09 Feb-09 Jan-10 Dec-08 Dec-09 Nov-08 Nov-09 Oct-09 Oct-08 Aug-08 Sep-09 Sep-08 Jul-08 Aug-09 Jun-08 Jul-09 May-08 6.0 Jun-09 Mar-08 Apr-09 US$ bn Mar-09 Feb-08 Feb-09 Jan-08 Due to heavy foreign exchange outflows, the Jan-09 Dec-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 Jul-08 Jun-08 Apr-08 May-08 Mar-08 6.0 6.0 Feb-08 Jan-08 US$ bn 0.0 Apr-08 May-09 Official reserves (without ACU) and months of imports 0.0 Nov-09 1.0 Investors repatriatedUS$ their investments. bn 2009. 5.0 Monthsof ofImports Imports (Right Axis) (Left Axis) Months (Right Axis) Gross Official Reserves M Real GDP growth (% change) Tsunami Drought 6.9 4.3 Global Security + Recession Weather 7.7 5.6 5.5 6.3 3.8 4.7 4.3 6.0 4.0 5.9 5.4 6.2 6.8 6.0 3.5 -1.5 High Oil Prices 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20 Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka 4 However, Sri Lanka geared its economy to weather these turbulent times The government was firm in eradicating terrorism The government gave new life to the economy by defeating terrorism within a period of less than 3 years. from Sri Lanka despite huge foreign pressure. Prudent policies pursued even before the eruption of the financial crisis helped to minimise its impact, particularly on the domestic financial system. The government’s emphasis on promoting domestic agriculture (“Api Wavamu – Rata Nagamu” policy) helped Sri Lanka to withstand the world food crisis. The reduction in world commodity prices along with higher domestic production, as well as the tight monetary policy in particular, helped in curbing domestic inflation, from around 28% in June 2008 to 3.3% in May 2009. Source: Media Center for National Security: http://www.nationalsecurity.lk Colombo Consumers’ Price Index (% change) 30 25 20 of banks. Because of this reason, the global financial crisis had no serious direct impact on Sri Lanka. 10 5 0 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Prudent regulations helped to limit foreign exposure Percent 15 Year-on-year Annual Average Source: Department of Census and Statistics 5 Poverty alleviation and regional development were given constant & continuous attention... Great potential for poverty alleviation, ahead of many other countries. Headcount poverty ratio (% of population) The Millennium Development Goals are well on track Focus on regional development is continuing. Policies are so far successful and many drivers are in place at national, provincial and village level. Development with equity is vital. That is a major goal in the “Mahinda Chintana”. Safety nets remained in place. 26.1 28.8 22.7 15.2 1990/91 1995/96 2002 2007 Poverty ratio in 2010 is expected to be substantially lower. 6 Northern & Eastern Provinces will contribute more to economic growth… Gross domestic product by province (2009) Gross domestic product by province (2002) Eastern Northern North 5% 3% Central Reclaimed area: Uva 4% 8% share of GDP 4% North Eastern Central 6% 5% Uva 5% Northern 3% Reclaimed area: 9% share of GDP Central 10% Central 10% Western 45% Western 50% Sabaragam uwa 7% Southern 11% North Western 10% Sabaragamu wa 6% Southern 10% North Western 10% The Eastern province had been freed of terrorism in 2007. Despite financial difficulties in 2008, government pursued rapid infrastructure development along with the first democratic elections in decades. This contributed to confidence in an equitable development process, and commitment to the liberation process in the North as well. The post conflict environment and the gradual recovery of the global economy will provide enhanced prospects to the entire country, with the Northern and Eastern provinces having the best ever opportunities to grow faster. 7 Tap vast potential of conflict affected areas in the North and East Eastern Province Trincomalee port is a natural harbour which has the potential to become a major commercial and industrial hub for the South Asian region Large stretches of beautiful beaches and ecological conservation areas can support a vibrant tourism industry Northern Province Fertile agricultural lands Mineral ores Forests Palmyra based industries Wet lands Untapped productive agricultural crop land with low population density can be developed for high intensity and productive agricultural enterprises Value addition for sea foods Livestock and fishery resources can be developed substantially Beautiful beaches and coral deposits Value addition for fruits, vegetables and sea foods Livestock and fishery resources can be developed substantially 8 Measures Sri Lanka adopted in safeguarding its foreign reserves Several measures were taken to strengthen foreign exchange inflows to the country. Remittances Inflows (US$ bn) 3.3 2.9 Conducted road shows to promote investment 2.5 in Treasury bonds and bills among the Sri Lankan Diaspora and expatriate community. Remittance inflows were promoted through 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 2000 2001 1.1 1.4 several stimulus schemes. 2006 2007 2008 2009 6.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 Sep-10 4.0 Jun-10 4.0 Mar-10 5.0 Dec-09 5.0 Sep-09 Policies remained practical, yet firm. 2005 Months of Imports 7.0 Jun-09 importation of select non-essential items. 2004 Months of Imports (Right Axis) 6.0 Mar-09 For a short period of time, curtailed the 2003 Gross Official Reserves (Left Axis) Dec-08 prices to the consumers early. US$ bn 7.0 Sep-08 The government passed on the increase in oil 2002 Official reserves (without ACU) and months of imports Jun-08 exchange outflows from the country. 1999 Mar-08 Further measures were taken to curtail the foreign Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka 9 Cultivating appropriate macroeconomic management in Sri Lanka Sri Lanka has had continuous dialogue with its friendly nations and investors. This was aimed at sharing the true story of Sri Lanka, thus building investor confidence. In 2007, amidst global uncertainties, Sri Lanka launched its debut international sovereign bond of US$ 500 mn which was more than 3 times oversubscribed. In 2008, Sri Lanka approached the IMF and amidst many challenges secured a US$ 2.6 bn Stand-by Arrangement facility, the highest approved for the country thus far. In 2009, during the height of the war against terrorism, Sri Lanka launched its second international sovereign bond of US$ 500 mn which was more than 13 times oversubscribed. In October 2010, the third international sovereign bond issue of US$ 1,000 mn was 6 times over subscribed in under 14 hours. These are some of many snapshots indicating foreign investor confidence that has developed further in anticipation of post-war economic growth and stability in Sri Lanka. 10 Transform Sri Lanka into a strategically important economic centre Naval Hub Aviation Hub Hambantota port Mattala international airport Southern Colombo Port Further Galle Port to a Tourism Port Other Ports Many fisheries harbours Energy Hub Develop own energy resources modernisation of the Katunayake International Airport 14 new domestic airports Commercial Hub Establish Sri Lanka as the foremost centre in the provision of commercial services, international banking and international investments Knowledge Hub Reverse brain drain and obtain knowledge and services of local experts who have excelled internationally Build new refineries Make changes to the education structure of universities & technical colleges Initiate programmes in communication, naval, aero, commercial and environment Commence training programmes that directly target foreign markets 11 Despite the ongoing conflict , Sri Lanka had embarked on a number of major infrastructure projects, which gave out a clear message even in the time of crisis Ports & Airports Roads & Flyovers Power Projects Water Projects Economic Zones Hotels & Apartment Developments Hospitals, Schools etc. 12 Harness the Tourism Sector… The post conflict tourism sector is expected to expand significantly in the near term: Earnings – US $550 mn in 2010 to US $2,000 mn by 2016 Arrivals: 0.5mn now to 2.5mn tourists by 2016 Average stay to move from 6 to 10 days Tourist spending to increase from US $88 to US $150 per day Investment in the sector to treble over the next 6 years Potential areas of investment: Hotels and restaurants, particularly in the East & North /West Tourist transportation Entertainment and sporting activity Ocean related services 13 Promote education, IT and human resources development Developing human capital potential : Education and skills development IT and BPO related services Human resource development Potential areas of investment: Branches of foreign universities for foreign & local students Professional study centres Institutes for English courses Institutions for IT and skills development BPO centres 14 Fast track industrial development... Potential areas of investment: Electric, Electronic and Assembling Industries Rubber and Rubber based industries Dockyard services Garments and apparel – Target to export US $5 bn by 2013 Gems and Jewellery Fishing and Related Industries Salterns Shipping Sugar factories Cement factories Chemical industries 15 Continue the agricultural renaissance Huge potential for growth exists in commercial agriculture Tea :Target US $2 bn by 2015 Rubber & Rubber products: Target US $1 bn by 2015 Fruits and Vegetables: to US $0.75 bn by 2015 Fisheries sector to target US $0.75 bn exports by 2015 Potential areas of investment: Agriculture and agro processing Fresh vegetables and fruit exports Fish canning and processing factories Cold rooms and ice plants Such developments require enhanced training in technology and entrepreneurship for rural communities to ensure they share fully in the increasing fruits of traditional livelihoods. 16 The fiscal sector was further strengthened Total government revenue and grants increased by 18.6% during January-June 2010 370 Total expenditure and net lending increased by only 3.1% during January-June 2010 600 361.5 360 340 Rs bn 320 304.9 300 560 559.6 540 520 290 280 500 270 2009 Jan - Jun. 2009 Jan - Jun 2010 Jan - Jun. 2010 Jan - Jun Budget deficit during first 6 months of 2010 is 3.9% of GDP compared to 5.3 in 2009 260 254.7 250 240 Rs bn Rs bn 330 310 576.8 580 350 230 220 215.3 210 200 190 2009 Jan - Jun . 2010 Jan - Jun . Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka 17 Encourage foreign direct investment Investor confidence will closely follow positive Sector-wise private direct investment in 2009 political and market events. There is now great potential to attract more FDIs to the country. Aim for FDI to be at least 5% of GDP, i.e. US $2 bn. by 2013. Domestic investment will also rise with the take off of the economy. on-going Othe r , 21 .4% P o we r ge ne ra tio n, 11.3% C he m ic a l c o a l, pe tro le um & pla s tic pro duc ts , 2.6% Key features to attract FDI: Geographic position - Regional Trading Hub Strategic access to Indian markets High quality workforce Open market economy Numerous Free Trade Agreements Attractive and Transparent Laws F o o d, be ve ra ge s & to ba c c o , 1.7% Te le pho ne & te le c o m infra s truc ture , 49.2% Te xtile , we a ring a ppa re l, le a the r pro duc ts , 8.5% Ho us ing & c o ns truc tio n, 3.0% F a bric a te d m e ta l, m a c hine ry & tra ns po rt, 2.3% Breakdown of FDI (2009) Equity capital 3.2% 25.6% 20.1% Loans and advances Intra-company borrowing Foreign loans Reinvestment of retained earnings 18.3% 32.8% 18 Increase remittances substantially... Diversified remittances are an important source Remittances by regions (US$ mm) of growth and FX generation 203 Remittances: Far East Asia 175 2009 : US $3.3 bn. (7.9% of GDP) 100 Target: about 7.4% of GDP by 2013 South East Asia 90 Focus on export of skilled services, not unskilled labour. Distribution of workers’ remittances across regions (2009) 149 Europe Other 129 603 European Union 525 Far East Asia, 6.1 Other, 3.3 South East Asia, 3.0 2009 127 North America Australia & Newzealand, 1.7 Europe other, 4.1 Middle East, 59.9 2008 114 1995 Middle East 1745 EU, 18.1 North America, 3.8 153 Other 140 19 The Sri Lankan response to the global economic and financial crises had been highly effective… The economy has bounced back to Economic Growth (%) normalcy 7.7 International reserves have 6.2 6.8 7.8 8.0 3.5 recorded historically highest levels The Colombo Stock Exchange is 8.0 6.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F among the world’s best stock exchanges. Inflation continues to be at- single digit-levels. 6.0 Interest rates have moderated significantly Gross Official Reserves (Left Axis) Months of Imports (Right Axis) Months of Imports 10.0 4.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 0.0 857 900 Per capita Income : US $ 2,014 2,053 1,634 1,421 1,241 981 1,062 2001 2002 2003 2004 Gross Official Reserves (Without ACU) and Months of Imports US$ bn 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20 Sri Lanka, a model for Asia In eradicating terrorism to provide security for all people, investments and investors, we have promoted inclusivity and focused on prosperity for all. With the focus on rapid infrastructure development, the Sri Lankan economy has a lot to offer while it gradually transforms into a strategically important economic centre. We have continued with social safety nets, providing high-level health and education facilities for all and maintained our high position with regard to quality of life. Now policy consistency & certainty are finally possible in our country. 21