the American pika Chris Ray, CU pikas are... ...and... related to rabbits as big as your fist non-hibernating highly vocal habitat specialists herbivorous highly territorial hay-stackers Ochotona princeps chris.ray@colorado.edu Outline Motivation for an individual-based study of climatic stressors Preliminary results from a long-term study in Montana Preliminary results from a comparative study of MT & CO pikas chris.ray@colorado.edu shanaweber@mac.com Summer heat-stress Grinnell 1917 MacArthur & Wang 1973, 1974 Smith 1974 Hafner 1993, 1994 Hafner & Sullivan 1995 Verts & Carraway 1998 Li et al. 2001 Simpson 2001 Beever et al. 2003, 2010 Winter cold-stress Tapper 1973 Smith 1978 Morrison and Hik 2007 Beever et al. 2010 & in prep. chris.ray@colorado.edu Shrinking distribution of the American pika chris.ray@colorado.edu 25 historical populations recorded 1898-1990 (average date = 1933) 6 extinct by 1999 (►) 10 by 2008 (◄) Extinction rate is rising chris.ray@colorado.edu Rising mean minimum elevation of 25 historical pika populations in the Great Basin 2008: 2,566 m 1999: 2,474 m >10 m/yr >1 m/yr 1933: 2,374 m Similar patterns in the Sierra Nevada (Moritz 2007) chris.ray@colorado.edu What predicts extinction? Habitat size/structure Human impacts Species interactions Thermal stress Beever et al. in press: Habitat area Accessibility Livestock grazing Acute heat-stress Chronic heat-stress Acute cold-stress Climatic refugium chris.ray@colorado.edu Defining local extinction Persisting N = 11 3 km N = 10 Extinct 200 m N=4 Transitional but persisting chris.ray@colorado.edu Candidate predictors of extinction: “Habitat area” – amount within 0.8 km, or entire mtn range 3 km “Refuge” – elevation of highest habitat within 3 km chris.ray@colorado.edu Candidate predictors of extinction (continued): “Accessibility” – distance to nearest non-4WD road “Grazing” – long-term use of the site by livestock “Acute heat stress” – number of days above 28°C/82°F “Chronic heat stress” – average summer temperature “Acute cold stress” – number of days below -10°C/14°F chris.ray@colorado.edu Hourly haypile temperatures 40 Niwot Ridge, CO Gallatin Range, MT 30 Temperature temp (C) (C) 20 10 Joyce Gellhorn 0 -10 -20 -30 A-04 S-04 O-04 N-04 D-04 J-05 F-05 M-05 A-05 M-05 J-05 date Date (Month-Year) J-05 A-05 Hindcasting metrics of stress Study site T (°C) 3 data sets: Σ = long-term, Δ = climate change, τ = recent 1945 1955 1965 3 stress metrics Acute heat-stress Chronic heat-stress Acute cold-stress 1975 1985 Data used # days > 28 °C Summer mean T # days < -10* °C 1995 2005 Hindcasts Σ >28 , Δ>28 , τ>28 Σ μS , ΔμS , τμS Σ <-10 , Δ<-10 , τ<-10 What predicts extinction? Given the many factors that may be responsible for pika extinctions, perhaps the only reason our list of predictors looks like this is because we haven’t yet had the opportunity to consider other (perhaps better) predictors, and data from other regions. Cold days (last 60 yrs) Refuge (upslope habitat) Habitat area (w/in 0.8 km) Hot summer (recent mean) Habitat area (w/in range) Grazing chris.ray@colorado.edu Erb, Ray & Guralnick study, in prep. Of 69 historically occupied sites in the southern Rockies, only 4 are no longer occupied The 4 local extinctions are explained by moisture issues: pikas are missing only from the driest sites How might climate cause extinction? chris.ray@colorado.edu Outline Motivation for an individual-based study of climatic stressors Preliminary results from a long-term study in Montana Preliminary results from a comparative study of MT & CO pikas chris.ray@colorado.edu Gallatin Range Demographic Study Montana Ray 1989-2009 chris.ray@colorado.edu Gallatin Range Demographic Study Montana Ray 1989-2009 Proportion of temperatures 0.4 2005-2009 pika fate vs. microsite temperature 0.35 Pika survived (n = 30) 0.3 Pika died (n = 37) 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 -14 -10 -6 -2 2 6 10 14 18 Temperature (C) chris.ray@colorado.edu 22 26 30 Gallatin Range Demographic Study Montana Ray 1989-2009 Proportion of temperatures 0.5 2008-2009 pika fate vs. microsite temperatures Pika survived (n = 5) Pika died (n = 4) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 -14 -10 -6 -2 2 6 10 14 Temperature (C) chris.ray@colorado.edu 18 22 26 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 Proportion adults in population 1.0 Gallatin Range Demographic Study Montana Ray 1989-2009 1990 1995 chris.ray@colorado.edu 2000 Year 2005 2010 0 -1 -2 -3 Adults Juveniles -4 Cache size, Aug 31 1 2 Gallatin Range Demographic Study Montana Ray 1989-2009 2000 2002 2004 2006 Year chris.ray@colorado.edu 2008 Outline Motivation for an individual-based study of climatic stressors Preliminary results from a long-term study in Montana Preliminary results from a comparative study of MT & CO pikas chris.ray@colorado.edu Stress and survival study Gallatin Range, MT & Niwot Ridge, CO Ray et al., 2008-2009 Bob Rapp 0.8 Stress and survival study Gallatin Range, MT & Niwot Ridge, CO Ray et al., 2008-2009 Main site, MT LTER site, CO 0.4 0.2 0.0 Survival rate 0.6 (c) MT CO Site Southern Northern CO slope aspect Stress and survival study Gallatin Range, MT & Niwot Ridge, CO Ray et al., 2008-2009 Plasma glucose (mg/dl) X 100 14 12 (d) 10 8 6 4 2 0 CO MT Site 0.4 MT CO 0.1 0.2 0.3 (a) 0.0 Proportion of temperatures recorded Stress and survival study Gallatin Range, MT & Niwot Ridge, CO Ray et al., 2008-2009 -20 10 0 -10 Temperature (C) 20 0.4 S aspect N aspect 0.1 0.2 0.3 (b) 0.0 Proportion of temperatures in CO Stress and survival study Gallatin Range, MT & Niwot Ridge, CO Ray et al., 2008-2009 -20 -10 0 10 Temperature (C) 20 How might climate cause extinction? ? ? ? ? ? ? chris.ray@colorado.edu How might climate cause extinction? Summer heat-stress Heat avoidance behavior Reduced foraging activity Smaller or inferior haypiles Winter cold-stress chris.ray@colorado.edu How might climate cause extinction? Summer heat-stress Heat avoidance behavior Reduced foraging activity Smaller or inferior haypiles Winter cold-stress chris.ray@colorado.edu Haypile Pika chris.ray@colorado.edu How might climate cause extinction? Community interactions chris.ray@colorado.edu shana.weber@mac.com Automated camera at a marmot den Morning Late morning Noon Afternoon How might climate cause extinction? Predation chris.ray@colorado.edu chris.ray@colorado.edu How might climate cause extinction? Disease chris.ray@colorado.edu What does the future hold? Manuscript in review, by Scott Loarie et al.* models local extinction probability according to climate for 97 resurveyed pika sites Mean annual temperature IV. Rocky Mtns III. Great Basin II. Cascade I. Sierra Decade (20th century) *S. Loarie, C. Field, C. Ray, E. Beever, P. Duffy, K. Hayhoe, J. Wilkening and J. Clark chris.ray@colorado.edu What does the future hold? Mean annual temperature Manuscript in review, by Scott Loarie et al.* models local extinction probability according to climate for 97 resurveyed pika sites IV. Rocky Mtns Mean annual temperature III. Great Moderate emission Basin scenarios Mid-high emission scenarios Projected II. Cascade I. Sierra Observed Lower emission scenarios Decade (20th century) *S. Loarie, C. Field, C. Ray, E. Beever, P. Duffy, K. Hayhoe, J. Wilkening and J. Clark chris.ray@colorado.edu Probability of local extinction Over 50% extinct by 2100? Predictions were conservative for the Great Basin *S. Loarie, C. Field, C. Ray, E. Beever, P. Duffy, K. Hayhoe, J. Wilkening and J. Clark chris.ray@colorado.edu The End chris.ray@colorado.edu