ANALYSIS OF CARRYING CAPACITY AND
CRITICAL GOVERNANCE STRATEGIES FOR
THE STRAITS OF MALACCA
HM Ibrahim & Mansoureh. Sh
Maritime Institute of Malaysia
B-6-8 Megan Ave II,12 Jalan Yap Kwan Seng,
50450, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Email: mibrahim@mima.gov.my
6th MIMA INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE STRAITS OF MALACCA"CHARTERING THE FUTURE"
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OUTLINE
• Introduction
o
o
•
•
•
•
The Setting
Importance of Straits of Malacca
Shipping traffic scenario
Carrying Capacity of the Straits
Critical Governance Strategies
Summary & recommendations
6th MIMA INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE STRAITS OF MALACCA"CHARTERING THE FUTURE"
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Maritime Institute Of Malaysia
(MIMA)
6th MIMA INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE STRAITS OF MALACCA"CHARTERING THE FUTURE"
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VISION
“To be a Centre of Excellence for
Maritime Policy Research”
6th MIMA INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE STRAITS OF MALACCA"CHARTERING THE FUTURE"
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• Established in July 1993
• MIMA is a Maritime Policy Research Institute to further
national interests in the maritime sector
• MIMA takes a comprehensive approach in dealing with
maritime issues, thereby contributing towards a meaningful,
comprehensive a cogent maritime policy for Malaysia
• Comprise 4 centres and a resource library
–
–
–
–
Maritime Economic Industries (MEI)
Maritime Security Environment (MSE)
Ocean Law and Policy(OLAP)
Straits of Malacca (SOM)
• Resource Center
6th MIMA INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE STRAITS OF MALACCA"CHARTERING THE FUTURE"
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SERVICES
• Conduct research
• Disseminate information through seminar,
conferences and other fora
• Publish books, proceedings, opinions and
options
• Provide consultancy services
• Resource centre for maritime affairs
• Network with national and international like
minded institutes
6th MIMA INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE STRAITS OF MALACCA"CHARTERING THE FUTURE"
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
6th MIMA INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
ON THE STRAITS OF
MALACCA"CHARTERING THE FUTURE"
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IMPORTANCE OF THE STRAITS
•
•
•
•
•
Crucial waterway for global seaborne trade
40% of world trade; worth US$6.8 Billion /annum
50% of world oil trade
Economical lifeline to the littoral states; coastal communities
A major shipping route for petroleum and oil tankers, More
than 75,000 ships ply Straits per annum (2008)
• A unique, tropical estuarine environment rich in renewable and
nonrenewable natural resources(525,906 tonnes fish landing in
2005, Malaysia Fishery Statistics)
• Coastal and marine tourist/recreation activities throughout the
coastal areas of SOM
6th MIMA INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE STRAITS OF MALACCA"CHARTERING THE FUTURE"
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2.1 mb/d
15.3 mb/d
5.3 mb/d
5.5 mb/d
2.2 mb/d
11.0 mb/d
Energy Shipping Lane and Strategic Passages in Asia Pacific 9
PRESENT TRAFFIC SCENARIO IN STRAITS OF MALACCA
TYPE
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
VLCC/DEEP DRAFT CR
2027
3163
3303
3301
3487
3477
3788
3851
3753
11474
13343
14276
14591
15667
16403
14759
14784
14931
LNG/LPG CARRIER
2473
2962
3086
3141
3277
3343
3099
3297
3413
CARGO VESSEL
5674
6603
6476
6065
6193
6624
6340
6477
8467
14521
18283
20101
20091
19575
20187
20818
22615
23736
BULK CARRIER
3438
4708
5370
5754
6256
6531
7394
8129
9684
RORO/CAR CARRIER
1229
1761
1764
1980
2182
2440
2515
2863
3137
PASSENGER VESSEL
1919
3301
3151
3490
3033
2838
2299
2009
1870
LIVESTOCK CARRIER
42
70
108
108
80
46
45
51
51
TUG/TOW VESSEL
566
774
610
422
478
568
420
372
444
GOV/NAVY VESSEL
93
117
155
111
120
130
153
81
95
FISHING VESSEL
52
44
60
38
35
67
34
39
36
457
828
854
942
1951
982
957
1081
1101
43965
55957
59314
60034
62334
63638
62621
65849
70718
TANKER VESSEL
CONTAINER VESSEL
OTHERS
TOTAL
Source: VTS –Port Klang
10
OTHERS
FISHING VESSEL
GOV/NAVY VESSEL
TUG/TOW VESSEL
LIVESTOCK CARRIER
PASSENGER VESSEL
RORO/CAR CARRIER
BULK CARRIER
CONTAINER VESSEL
CARGO VESSEL
11
Source: Malaysia Marine Department
LNG/LPG CARRIER
TANKER VESSEL
VLCC/DEEP DRAFT CR
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
vessel numbr
SHARE OF DIFFERENT TYPE OF VESSELS IN SOM TRAFFIC COMPOSITION
Vessel type
MARITIME CASUALTIES IN SOM
%share
• 475 accidents in period of 1975-1995
• Type of casualties:
35
30
– Collision ; 101
25
– Explosion ; 81
20
– sinking; 153
15
10
– Engine trouble : 123
5
– Others ; 18
0
collision
explosion
sinking
engine
trouble
other
type of accident
12
MAJOR OIL SPILL IN STRAITS OF MALACCA
Vessel Name
Year
1992
MT spirit &Ocean blessing
Type of oil
Qty of
Location/incident
& HNS
Spill/(000bbl)
type
Crude oil
100
Malacca
Strait/collision
1975
Showa Maru
Crude
54
Malacca/grounding
1977
Evoikos/Orapian Global
Crude
175
Singapore/Collision
1999
SS sun vista
Fuel
14
Malacca/sinking
2000
Natuna
Crude
49
Malacca/grounding
2001
MV indah lestari
Phenol
650 Tonnes
Johor Strait/sinking
Total
Source: N.Basiron; Profile of Straits of Malacca
392 (000bbl)
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RISK GOVERNANCE IN CRITICAL GLOBAL
INFRASTRUCTURE (CGI)
• Increase in shipping traffic > 6.2%/year
• Risk of collision increases with increase in
traffic
• As a first appraisal for Risk Governance, the
Carrying Capacity to be determined
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CARRYING CAPACITY
• The ability of a system to support an activity
or feature without causing any damage to the
system while allowing for self rejuvenation
(UNEP,1996)
• The ability could support a positive natural
increase in a system based on the system
limitation (Johnson&Thomas,1996).
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CARRYING CAPACITY FACTORS
Carrying
Capacity
Shipping
Traffic in SOM
Geographical
Features of
SOM
Ship building
Environmental
parameters
Wind, Current,
Human
parameters
Number of
ship
Width
Ship age
Traffic
composition
Depth
Ship size
Economical
aspect
Length
Ship facilities
Rule and
Regulations
Fog, Haze..
Crew
competency
others
Port facilities
Navigational
aids
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CARRYING CAPACITY-QUEUING MODEL
• Carrying Capacity= Maximum Arrival
rate*24*365
• Arrival Rate=(Level of Service & Traffic
Flow Rate)
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WAITING TIME; TRAFFIC FLOW RATE
– Sufficient time for a vessel to pass SOM and use its facilities, Waiting time depends on
LOS and Arrival rate ;
  /  2 
W= 1 /  

 21   /   
• TFR is the study of interactions between vehicles, drivers and
infrastructure with the aim of understanding and developing an optimal
transport network with efficient movement.(Ref:HCM,2006)
Source: Markov Process- Queuing Theory
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VESSEL ARRIVAL RATE
Terminology (Transportation Manual):
The number of vessels passing a given point per unit time
No.
Year
Arrival
Rate(ship/
hour)
Vessel Arrival Rate= Number of Vessel
year/365/24
arrive in one
(Ref : Transportation system & Service policy ; J.G.Schoon)
1
1999
5.00
2
2000
6.4
3
2001
6.7
4
2002
6.9
5
2003
7.00
6
2004
7.2
7
2005
7.2
8
2006
7.5
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6th MIMA INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
ON THE STRAITS OF
MALACCA"CHARTERING THE FUTURE"
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CARRYING CAPACITY FIGURES
• Arrival rate at(TFR=0.27)= 7vessel/hour
C.C=7*24*365*2= 122,640 vessel/year
• MIMA projected 122,640 vessels in 2024
• World Bank predicted 122,500vessels in 2025
• JITI* projected 140,000 vessels in 2020
*Japan International Transport Institute
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IMPLICATIONS
• Congestion will start when number of ships reach
the Carrying Capacity of 122,640 annually
(predicted be in 2024)
• Urgent need for a traffic system to avoid
accidents/catastrophy
• Governance strategies required to ensure that
transit through the Straits is maintained.
• Urgent study of risk assessment and risk
management in SOM required
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RISK MATRIX
Risk =Probability*Consequence
• To facilitate the ranking and validation of ranking, it is
generally recommended to define consequence and probability
indices on a logarithmic scale
Log (risk)=Log (Probability) + Log( Consequence)
Risk index= Frequency Index + Severity index
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ALARP MATRIX; STRAIT OF MALACCA; 2000-2007;VESSEL
NUMBER / TYPE
Catastrophic
VLCC/LNG
Tanker
General cargo
RORO
Severe
Significant
Fishing
Minor
TUG,Navy
Passenger vessel
Bulk Carrier
Container
Remote
Reasonably Probable
Frequent
Live stock
Extremely
Remote
Acceptable
ALARP
Intolerable
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QUO VADIS
• Carrying Capacity to be exceeded 2024
• Safety and security system in place
Safety
Security
TSS
EIS
STRAITREP
MSP
VTS
MMEA etc
DGPS etc.
• Is this sufficient?
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STEPS OF CRITICAL GOVERNANCE STRATEGIES
•Vision
•Principle
•Objectives
•Action plans
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CRITICAL GOVERNANCE STRATEGIES
•
•
•
•
•
•
Cooperative Mechanism
MEH
Bosphorus Straits traffic system
Maritime spatial planning (North sea model)
SOMMACIS
Or some combination of the above.
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SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
•
•
•
•
•
Carrying Capacity of SOM in 2024
Risk analysis
Risk governance
Critical governance strategies
First we need a “Vision for the Straits of
Malacca”
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Legend
Source: www.marinetraffic.com
Location: English channel
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THANK YOU
Maritime Institute of Malaysia
www.MIMA.gov.my
Email: mibrahim@mima.gov.my
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EPILOGUE
• Prior to 1972- Homocentric
• UNHE -5 June 1972- Biocentric
• UNED -3 June 1992- Ecocentric
(Earth Summit)
“Straat De Melaka
Centric”