Energy security IV
Brno, 7th July 2011
Energy Strategy of the Russian
Federation by 2030
• Published in 2009
• Reduction of Russian dependence on European markets planned in
long-time perspective
• Plans to develop Asia-Pacific dimension of Russian external energy
policy (esp.Russian oil export to China – 1/3 of Russian oil exports
in the future should be delivered to China)
• Plans to join global LNG market
• Emphasis on key points of interest of Russian energy policy
(Caspian Sea and Arctic Circle – searching for new resources to
fulfill all the projects of Russian energy companies)
• More emphasis on energy effectivity – 2009: new legislation
concerning energy savings and effectivity
X
• In reality: European dimension of Russian energy policy is still
planned to be priority, Russian efforts to persist as the main actor in
European market with energy resources
Russian activities in Asia
• China
BRIC – possible economic cooperation?
Oil: Rosneft – Sinopec: project Sakhalin 3
Vostok Energy: joint venture (Rosneft-CNPC)
Pipeline to Nakhodka and to Daquing on Chinese side
(Transneft company), connection of both lines – oil for
China and Japan and South Korea possibly
Gaz – Gazprom´s plans of a pipeline (from Yamal,
supposed to be finished in 2011, complications) X 2009
– gas pipeline from Turkmenistan through Uzbekistan
and Kazakhstan to Xinjiang
Russian activities in Asia
• Japan
Still no treaty about normalisation of relations after WWII, territorial
dispute concerning Kurill Islands persist (economic and geopolitical
importance – fisheries, port in Etorofu Island)
1993 – joint declaration about mutual relations (esp.economic
cooperation)
Japan participation at Blue Stream project, problems in Sakhalin (2006
Gazprom made Schell, Mitsui and Mitsubishi to sell half of their
share on Sakhalin I and II projects – Gazprom gained majority) X
after crisis renewed Russian interest to gain Japan investments
back
Since 2009 deliveries of LNG from Sakhalin to Japan
2009 – series of agreements (Russian nuclear fuel to Japan in change
for moder technologies)
Joint agreement about exploitation of oil deposits in Eastern Siberia
Russian activities in Asia
• South Korea
Since 1990 diplomatic relations, no border
disputes, 2006-2007 first LNG from Gazprom
• Vietnam
Vietsovpetro – joint venture of Zarubezhneft and
Petrovietnam (since January 2011 majority
share of Vietnam company)
Gazprom´s plans to invest to the development of
oil and gas depostits at Bay of Bengal
Russian activities in Asia
• India
2000 Declaration of strategic partnership
Offer to build „strategic triangle“
Cooperation in nuclear energy (Medvedev´s
visit in Delhi 2008)
Indian state company ONGC gained a share
in Sakhalin´s project
Russian activities in Middle East
and North Africa
• Quatar – possible cooperation between Russia, Quatar
and Iran?
• Algeria
Memorandum of understanding between Gazprom and
Sonatrach company
GECF
Trans-Saharan gas pipeline
• Egypt
Lukoil (Meleiha oil field), Novatek (El Arish deposits – Sinai
peninsula), efforts of Gazprom (exploration and
production in Egyptian deposits, interest in LNG facility
Damietta, in cooperation with Eni)
Kremlin – declaration of interest of Gazprom to enter
through Stroytransgaz the project of Pan-Arab Pipeline
Russian activities in Middle East
and North Africa
• Nigeria
Growing interest of Russian companies
NIGAZ (2009, Gazprom 50%, NNPC 50%, building of refineries,
pipelines, gas power plants, problems with insolvency of NNPC) Trans-Saharan gas pipeline?
Rosatom
Itera + Indian Sun Energy Ltd. = Suntera
ASEN – gas power plant with Russian technology
• Iran
Gas cartel?
Cooperation in South Pars – Memorandum of understanding between
Gazprom and NIOC – no practical results
• Libya
Cooperation of Gazprom with Eni and BASF
Project El Feel, Marsa El Brega, 2nd line of Green Stream?
Russia in Caspian region
Caspic region in Russian energy
policy
• Efforts to keep control especially of the transport of
Central Asian oil and gas
• Energy resources from Caspian region have been used
as additional resource for Russian domestic market and
for export to certain external markets (esp.gas)
• In the past – possibility to buy cheaper gas there X
recent changes – in spite of them Gazprom keeps
interest in long-time contracts here
• In comparative perspective: Russia keeps relatively good
position in relation to Kazakhstan X Azerbaijan among
the first newly independent countries that began active
cooperation with Western investors, Turkmenistan –
efforts for diversification in recent years
Dispute concerning legal status of
Caspian Sea
• Has not been fully solved yet – one of the major
obstacles for the alternative of Trans-Caspian pipeline
(for deliveries to the West)
• In case of division of the seabed in national sectors
Kazakhstan and Azerbaijand would have benefited most
(less Russia, Turkmenistan and Iran) = influence on the
different positions of the states
• Russia – prefered „condominium“ principle and common
exploitation of the seabed, estabilishment of regional
organisation coordinating the cooperation and of
common enterprise for exploration and extraction of the
deposits, keeping of the principles of old Soviet-Iranian
agreement on free navigation and fisheries except for
the coastal line
Dispute concerning legal status of
Caspian Sea
• Azerbaijan – began with extraction, significant
deposits near Azerbaijani coastal line,
Arezbaijan prefered quick resolution of the
problem and division into national sectors under
full jurisdiction of particular states
• Turkmenistan – unclear position, balancing
between support of „condominium“ and division
into national sectors
• Kazakhstan – compromise (division of the
seabed and resources, estabilishment of
fisheries zones, rest of the sea was supposed to
be open for free navigation of merchant vessels
of littoral states)
Dispute concerning legal status of
Caspian Sea
• 1998 – dispute solved between Russia and Kazakhstan:
legal status of sea – division of the northern part of the
Caspian seabed according to international law,
modification of the dividing line (concession to Russia)
• Agreement cocncerning division of the part of Caspian
Sea signed also by Azerbaijan
• Kazakhstan 27%, Russia 20%, Azerbaijan – more than
18%
X different postions of Iran and Turkmenistan
(prez.Berdymukhamedov turned to UN to supervise the
creation of legal document safeguarding stable and
reliable supplies of energy resources from Caspian Sea)
Turkmenistan
• Biggest gas producer in Central Asia
• Supposed 4th largest world natural gas deposits
• Goal declared to increase the extraction significantly by
2030 – necessity of investments to extraction and
transport infrastructure
• One of the largest world gas deposits – South Yoleten
(2009 – contract for development of the deposit assigned
to consortium of companies from China, South Korea
and UEA)
• First LNG terminal in Caspian area
• Offshore projects – still influenced with the dispute with
Azerbaijan concerning the sea border
• Onshore projects – oil and gas deposits in central and
eastern part of Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan
• Important role of government concerning
management of natural recources – State
agency for management and exploitation of
hydrocarbons, subordinated to the president of
Turkmenistan
• State company Turkmengaz – gas distribution in
Turkmenistan
• State rafinery TKNPZ, construction company
Turkmenneftgazstroy
• State-owned gas pipeline network including
export infrastructure X exception – gas pipeline
to China – on the basis of international contract
• Gas subsidised for domestic consumers
Turkmenistan – transport infrastructure
(cooperation with Russia)
• In Soviet era – supplies to Russia
• By 2009 – regular supplies of 40-45
bcm/y of gas to Gazprom X 2009 –
explosion of the 4th line of Central
Asian pipeline (CAC) = sharp decline of
the deliveries to Russia
• Export of Turkmen gas to Russia
decreased from 70% of Turkmen
production to 45%
• Consolidation of the situation –
beginning of 2010 X original volumes of
deliveries were not re-estabilished
• Russia aimed to increase import of
Turkmen gas again (Russian-Turkmen
summit in November 2010) X paralel
Turkmen negotiations about alternative
projects (e.g.Nabucco), plans to
increase domestic consumption
Turkmenistan – transport infrastructure
(cooperation with Russia)
• Pri-Caspian (Caspian Coastal)
pipeline
2007 – agreement Turkmenistan
– Kazakhstan – Russia,
northern „circumvention“ of
Caspian Sea – delayed,
suspended
• 2010 – East-West connection
between deposits in the East
and the coast of Caspic Sea,
originally international project x
Turkmenistan had decided for
discrete building of the
pipeline, but then offered to
Russian company Itera the
possibility to build part of the
line
Turkmenistan – transport infrastructure
(diversification)
• 2010 – gas pipeline from eastern part of
Turkmenistan to China via Uzbekistan
• Pipeline Turkmenistan – Iran
• Support of Turkmenistan for possible
building of gas pipeline TAPI (to Pakistan
and India via Afghanistan)
• Possible participation of Turkmenistan in
Nabucco? (problem with project of TransCaspian pipeline)
Kazakhstan
• Strong position of national company KazMunaiGaz
• Important oil deposits: Tengiz, Kashagan,
Karachaganak, Korolevskoye,...
• Plans to increase export by 2015
• Deposits of natural gas - shelf of Caspian Sea, onshore
deposits in Western part of the country (Karachaganak,
Tengiz, Kashagan) – 2% of world deposits
X import of gas from Russia and Uzbekistan
• Effort to get rid of import dependency and increase
extraction by 2015
• Need of better infrastructure to supply domestic
consumers with gas
Kazakhstan – foreign investments
• American companies - Chevroil, ExxonMobil (esp.oil),
Texaco
• ENI (Italy)
• Shell, Total
• But also Mittal Energy, Sinopec and CNPC
• Russian investments
Esp.Lukoil (Tengiz, Karachaganak), joint ventures
Gazprom – joint venture KazRosGas
- Gazprom 50%; processing of gas and sales in Kazakh
internal market and abroad)
- gas is distributed to Russia to Orenburg refinery and sold
by Russian companies to Eastern Europe (Baltic
countries, Ukraine) or Turkey
- Almost monopolist exporter of Kazakh gas and key
player in internal market with gas
Rosneft – subsidy RN-Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan – export of resources
• Transport of resources from Kazakhstan mainly
through Russian territory and infrastructure
• Oil
System CPC (Caspian Pipeline Consortium) –
Transneft, KazMunaiGaz, Chevron, Rosněfť,
ENI...; from Tengiz to Russian port Novorossijsk
(possibly through Burgas – Alexandropolis)
Atyrau – Samara (to Eastern Europe through BPS,
Druzhba, Black Sea ports)
Transport from port Aktau – either railway transport
and usage of Russian pipelines (Transneft) or
even possible transport through Baku – Tbilisi –
Ceyhan (diversification, Trans-Caspian system)
Kazakhstan – export of resources
• Oil – diversification
2006 – celebration of opening of Atasu – Alashankou (also
possibility to transport Russian oil to China in this way)
Plans to build 2nd line of Kazakhstan-China pipeline
• Gas
Kazakhstan rather transit state (for gas from other Central
Asian countries), import of gas from Uzbekistan,
transport network needs modernisation
Central Asia – Centre gas pipeline system: built in Soviet
era (1960´s), gas from Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and
Western Kazakhstan, joined with Gazprom transport
system and transported to CIS and Europe
Kazakhstan – gas pipelines II
• Kazakhstan – China pipeline: part of Central Asia-China
pipeline, Turkmen gas is delivered from the UzbekKazakh border to China (2 lines: 1. Turkmen gas; 2.
sources from W Kazakhstan)
• Project of Pri-Caspian (Caspían Coastal) pipeline:
Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan-Russia: supposed to join
Central Asia-Centre pipeline (alternative to projects that
circumvent Russian territory – BTE, Nabucco)
• Project of Trans-Caspian pipeline Aktau-Baku (through
Caspian Sea, joining Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum and possibly
Nabucco X unsolved problem of the status of Caspian
Sea)
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus
• The most important oil pipeline delivering oil to Europe and
circumventing Russian territory is BTC – second longest oil pipeline
after Druzhba
• Oil pipeline Baku – Supsa (former part of Soviet pipeline system,
now operated by ExxonMobile)
• Baku-Novorossijsk (with Russian Transneft) – originally through
Chechen territory, 2000 – circumvention through Dagestan
• Railway transport of oil
Azerbaijan – gas pipelines
• Gas pipeline Baku – Tbilisi – Erzurum: almost the same route
2007, gas from big Azerbaijani deposit Shah Deniz to Georgia and
Turkey (one of the supposed bases for Caspian gas deliveries into
Europe)
• Project Nabucco – agreement about gas deliveries for Nabucco was
signed in Baku in January 2011 (obligation to deliver „substantial
volume of gas“ necessary for „Southern corridor“ building
X 2009 Azerbaijani president Aliyev signed agreement with Russia
about gas deliveries – doubts about impacts on Nabucco project
Energy and geopolitics of South
Caucasus
• Importance of Georgia as transit state for both oil and gas, storage
capacities
• Black Sea: Kulevi terminal, Batumi port
• During Russian-Georgian war 2008 ports that play important role in
railway transport of oil were damaged as well as Baku-Supsa oil
pipeline and railway routes; partial stop of BTE operation and of
extraction in Azerbaijani oil fields
X Peripherial position of Armenia – problem of diversification of
resource deliveries was not solved (originally Armenia was offered to
take part at oil pipeline from Azerbaijan X conditioned by evacuation
of Armenian troops from the disputed area of Nagorny Karabakh)
• Cooperation Armenia – Iran (oil, gas pipelines)
• Metsamor nuclear power plant (possible danger – seismically active
zone)