GLOBAL CHANNEL TRENDS, 2013 Shifting patterns in regional channel growth May 2013 1 A Service LOUISE HOWARTH Senior Retail Analyst Contents 1. Introduction 2. Overview 3. Regions: 4. 2 1. Western Europe 2. Central & Eastern Europe 3. North America 4. Latin America 5. Africa & Middle East 6. Asia Pacific 7. Oceania Summary & Implications 1. Introduction 1. Introduction Local consumer behaviour and market influences across the world are shaping channel trends in regional markets in different directions and at varying rates. Retailer and supplier strategies are moulded by such factors and, as a result, instead of a global strategy, there is a need to tailor approaches at the local level. This report looks to highlight key trends within regions which have been occurring over the last five years, as well as pull up opportunity channels for the future. 4 2. Global Overview 2. Overview Hypermarkets & superstores remain the largest channel. However, growth is slowing as the sector becomes saturated. Indeed, all other channels outpace it in terms of the five-year CAGR. Although still very small in terms of sales, online channel growth has soared over the last five years and is set to more than double again in the next five. Global: Channel Sizes by Sales, 2007-2017f (USD bn) 2,500 Retail Banner Sales (USD bn) 2,000 1,500 2007 1,000 2012 2017 500 0 Hypermarkets & Supermarkets & Discount stores Convenience & Cash & Carries & Drugstores, Superstores Neighbourhood Forecourt stores Wholesale clubs Pharmacies & stores Perfumeries Online* - Planet Retail’s coverage of Grocery and Health & Beauty e-commerce sales. Source: Planet Retail. 6 Channel Online* 2. Overview Big-box channels have seen relatively low rates of expansion over the last five years compared to smaller grocery formats such as discount and convenience & forecourt outlets which have seen strong rates of store openings. This has been driven in part by saturation of available big-box sites, consumers’ desire for local, convenient shopping and the provision of online shopping. Global: Channel Sizes by Outlets, 2007-2017 400,000 350,000 Number of Outlets 300,000 250,000 200,000 2007 2012 150,000 2017 100,000 50,000 0 Hypermarkets & Supermarkets & Superstores Neighbourhood stores Source: Planet Retail. 7 Discount stores Convenience & Cash & Carries & Forecourt stores Wholesale clubs Channel Drugstores, Pharmacies & Perfumeries 2. Overview Number of Hypermarket & Superstore Outlets by Region Though hypermarkets & superstores is the largest channel by Retail Banner Sales (RBS) globally, regional charts show huge disparities between the number of outlets, and the rate which they are increasing, across the world’s regions. 30,000 North America 20,000 30,000 2007 Western Europe 20,000 2007 2012 10,000 2017 0 30,000 20,000 0 Source: Planet Retail. 8 2017 0 LATAM 30,000 2007 2017 Central & Eastern Europe 20,000 2007 2012 2012 10,000 20,000 10,000 10,000 0 2017 0 Africa & Middle East 30,000 2007 20,000 2017 Asia & Oceania 2007 2012 2012 2012 10,000 30,000 10,000 0 2017 2. Overview Number of Discount Outlets by Region Discount is the fastest-growing channel by outlet numbers globally. Western Europe leads in terms of physical presence. However, huge network growth is occurring in all regions as retailers look to cater to cash-conscious shoppers. 60,000 North America 40,000 60,000 2007 Western Europe 40,000 2007 2017 0 60,000 40,000 20,000 60,000 2007 40,000 2012 20,000 0 Source: Planet Retail. 9 2017 2017 40,000 2007 2012 20,000 Africa & Middle East 60,000 2007 40,000 0 2017 Asia & Oceania 2007 2012 2012 20,000 2017 0 0 LATAM Central & Eastern Europe 2012 2012 20,000 60,000 20,000 0 2017 2. Overview Number of Convenience & Forecourt Outlets by Region The international convenience & forecourt store network is larger than any other channel. Yet there are clear disparities in total stores per region. Areas experiencing urban booms are ideal targets for this retail format. 200,000 North America 150,000 200,000 2007 2012 100,000 2017 2007 100,000 2012 50,000 0 0 LATAM 200,000 150,000 2007 100,000 2012 2017 150,000 2007 2012 100,000 2017 50,000 0 Asia & Oceania Africa & Middle East 200,000 2007 150,000 2007 100,000 2012 100,000 2012 2017 2017 50,000 50,000 50,000 0 0 0 Source: Planet Retail Central & Eastern Europe 150,000 2017 10 200,000 150,000 50,000 200,000 Western Europe 2. Overview Taking the Top 10 global retailers as a sample, it is clear the hypermarkets & superstores channel is gradually declining as a proportion of total revenue as retailers see more potential in other formats. Global: Channel Sizes of the Top 10 Global Grocery Retailers by Total Sales, 2007-2017 (USD bn) 100% 90% Retail Banner Sales (USD bn) 80% Other 11.2% Non-store commerce 70% 7.5% 60% 10.4% 10.8% 7.8% 7.7% 50% 40% Discount stores 30% 60.7% 56.4% 53.2% 2012 2017 20% 10% 0% 2007 Channel Note - ‘Non-store commerce’ includes e-commerce and other non-store sales such as catalogue and direct. Source: Planet Retail. 11 Drugstores, Pharmacies & Perfumeries Cash & Carries & Wholesale clubs Convenience & Forecourt stores Supermarkets & Neighbourhood stores Hypermarkets & Superstores 2. Overview Proportion of web shoppers who have made grocery purchases online. Online grocery shopping is most prevalent among shoppers in the Asia region. Growth is being spurred by retailers embracing e-commerce as young, affluent, tech-savvy consumers opt to shop via the channel. 11% 27% 10% 8% 10% 33% 7% 13% 7% Source: Planet Retail’s Online Shopper Survey data. 12 31% 2. Overview What is driving channel growth rate change? Consumer behaviour and demand is driving the shift in formats to some extent. Hectic work/home schedules Two working parents Busy lifestyles Smartphone/tablet penetration Increasing single person households Urban dwelling Commuting Changing Demographics Increasing access to technology Tech-savvy generations becoming key consumers Shoppers becoming more informed Ageing population 13 Home access to the internet 2. Overview What is driving channel growth rate change? Market saturation, economic conditions and governmental legislation are also hugely influential factors on trends in retail channels. Demand for lower prices squeezing margins and effecting CAPEX Greenfield zones implemented to fight urban sprawl Reduced consumer spending High street vacancies Reducing availability of large, out-of-town sites Largest players shifting focus on underdeveloped channels Barricades put up by Governments to protect against influx of multinationals Aggressive competition Emerging markets with increasing household incomes demanding more investment and choice Competition commissions blocking new developments 14 3. Regions Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe North America Asia Africa & Middle East Latin America Oceania 3.1 Western Europe 3.1 Western Europe Region Many countries within Western Europe have reached saturation point with the larger hypermarket & superstores and cash & carry channels due to changing consumer habits and a lack of available sites. Western Europe: Channel Sizes by Sales, 2007-2017 (USD bn) 600 Retail Banner Sales (USD bn) 500 400 300 2007 2012 200 2017 100 0 Hypermarkets & Superstores Source: Planet Retail 17 Supermarkets & Neighbourhood stores Discount stores Convenience & Forecourt stores Channel Cash & Carries & Wholesale clubs Drugstores, Pharmacies & Perfumeries 3.1 Western Europe Region Key Channel Trend: Customers Craving Convenience Over the last five years, the convenience & forecourt channel has grown at a relatively strong rate while other channels have witnessed a slowdown. While once Western Europe’s urban dwellers made regular trips to out-oftown hypermarkets, increasingly busy lifestyles have reduced the amount of time free to spend on grocery shopping. Ready to eat, ready to heat food and topup items are increasingly desired at a local level, spurring the growth of small formats. Retailers have been catering to urban dwellers and commuters by stocking larger fresh ranges, on-the-go alternatives to fast food outlets and cafés as well as essential household items. 18 Planet Retail’s take Smaller stores generate higher operating costs and therefore squeeze margins, forcing prices to be pushed higher. However, many multi-channel retailers pledge one price across the board. As an increasing proportion of sales come from smaller stores, retailers and suppliers will begin to feel the effect. The Western Europe region is home to many of the most developed grocery markets in the world. Grocery channel trends often occur here first. The expansion of small stores in urban areas, which has been seen in markets like the UK, is predicted to be a key trend in other regions highlighted in this report. 3.1 Western Europe Region Opportunity: Blurred Channels Shoppers’ desire for convenience and adoption of technology is blurring channels in Western Europe. Forward-thinking retailers are embracing e-commerce, aiming to make the transition between online and physical stores as seamless as possible. Customers are choosing the efficiency of ordering from the sofa/office/commuter train and - rather than having to choose a four-hour time slot for home delivery - are collecting orders at their own convenience from a local store. According to Planet Retail E-commerce Shopper Data 14% of French online shoppers have used the Drive & Collect option. As the number of Drives increases, this number will rise. The major French players are taking this one step further with the Drive format. The numbers of Auchan’s Chronodrive and Auchandrive locations are increasing while March 2013 saw it announce Drive locations for its Simply Market banner. Trials are also being conducted to find synergies between Grocery and Drive formats. 19 © Tesco.com Tesco has 1,500 non-food click & collect sites including a number of Express stores, covering 85% of the UK. It also offers grocery click & collect services across 140 outlets. Tesco advertising aimed at London commuters, emphasising online shopping options available with smartphone ordering. Planet Retail’s take Grocery e-commerce ventures require much investment and profitable returns are uncertain to say the least – particularly in the short to medium-term. However, playing the long game will pay off – as Tesco has shown in the last few years (being the first UK grocery retailer to announce a profit derived from its online operations). 3.2 Central & Eastern Europe 3.2 CEE Region Between 2007-2012, sales grew impressively across most channels in CEE with the exception of cash & carries and wholesale clubs which stuttered somewhat. However, sales are predicted to pick up in the next five years. CEE: Channel Sizes by Sales, 2007-2017 (USD bn) 180 Retail Banner Sales (USD bn) 160 140 120 100 2007 80 2012 60 2017 40 20 0 Hypermarkets & Superstores Source: Planet Retail 21 Supermarkets & Neighbourhood stores Discount stores Convenience & Forecourt stores Channel Cash & Carries & Wholesale clubs Drugstores, Pharmacies & Perfumeries 3.2 CEE Region Key Channel Trend: Convenience Stores Gaining Importance Over the last five years the convenience sector has been a key fast-growing channel in many countries across the CEE region. Convenience stores are traditionally well established in countries like Poland and Greece, while being relatively new as a store concept to consumers in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Russia. Carrefour opened 100 franchised Carrefour Express stores in Poland in 2012 and plans to continue its store opening programme. Polish operator Zabka rolled out 600 convenience outlets between 2010-2012. Tesco has been introducing Tesco Express stores in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. X5 Retail Group in Russia is successfully developing its Perekrestok Express banner in Moscow and Central Russia. 22 Planet Retail’s take Though a regional trend, which has been ongoing for the last few years, there is still massive potential for this format in Russia and in some Balkan countries, like Romania. Tesco will be the fastest-growing convenience store operator in the region over the next five years with a 2012-2017 CAGR growth rate of 17.3%. However, the retailer is unlikely to penetrate the Polish market due to the high level of competition. Foreign retailers have to adjust their product ranges to local conditions as some product categories like ready meals have much lower penetration than in neighbouring Western Europe. 3.2 CEE Region Opportunity: Wholesalers and local cash & carry operators. Wholesale and cash & carry operators have the opportunity to expand their retail networks in order capture the “middle man” revenue between suppliers and local independents. Low household incomes means much of the regional population do smaller basket shops, more frequently. As a result there is still a robust mom & pop retail industry. Retailers are expanding rapidly, often via a franchise model, in order to establish themselves within close proximity to as many independent retailer customers as possible. Eurocash has doubled its number of franchised abc stores to 5,451 between 2008-2012. This is a strategy the retailer is pursuing for the future. Planet Retail’s take Polish Eurocash supplies over 10,000 owned, franchised and managed stores. Sales at its cash & carry stores rose 14.5% to PLN4.07 billion (USD1.25 billion) with like-for-like sales growth of 9% in 2012. 23 To boost revenues in its cash & carry stores, Metro Group is developing a network of franchised neighbourhood stores like LaDoiPasi in Romania, Fasol in Russia and Odido in Poland. The existence of independent shopkeepers is endangered by Discount chains penetrating small towns. Independent retailers will increasingly seek help from wholesalers and cash & carry operators to be able to compete. Targeting more local independents via the franchise route is a smart option for cash & carry operators hoping to offset declines in sales caused by the struggling Foodservice sector. Franchisees are often more familiar with the needs of the local customer while retailers can more easily promote their private label products. Cash & carry operators have an opportunity to enter the grocery e-commerce channel as Metro Group’s Makro cash & carry has already done in Poland. A considerable advantage lies in the dense network of collection points available in franchise stores. 3.3 North America 3.3 North America Region Shoppers’ strong focus on value and convenience will spur even greater activity in the discount and club store sectors. Traditional supermarkets, meanwhile, will be forced to adapt to evolving consumer interests. North America: Channel Sizes by Sales, 2007-2017 (USD bn) 1,200 Retail Banner Sales (USD bn) 1,000 800 600 2007 2012 400 2017 200 0 Hypermarkets & Superstores Source: Planet Retail 25 Supermarkets & Neighbourhood stores Discount stores Convenience & Forecourt stores Channel Cash & Carries & Wholesale clubs Drugstores, Pharmacies & Perfumeries 3.3 North America Region Key Channel Trend: Cash-strapped Consumers Fuelling US Value Store Activity. The discount/value channel registered an 8% CAGR from 2007-2012 versus 3% for the total US grocery channel as shoppers seek bargains. Eight leading US value chains added more than 5,000 stores in the last five years. Planet Retail projects 7,000 more by 2017. Value channel operators are aggressively renovating stores to improve the shopper experience. Dollar General plans 550 renovations or remodels in 2013. Consumables are accounting for a rising percentage of sales as operators add selections to attract more traffic and drive shopper frequency. Lower-price private label selections are becoming increasingly prominent. Family Dollar plans to have 1,500 items by yearend, 30% more than a year earlier. 26 Leading US Value Chains: Steadily Adding Outlets Retailer 2007 2012 Change Dollar General 8,194 10,482 27.9% Family Dollar 6,430 7,442 15.7% Dollar Tree 3,302 4,601 39.3% Big Lots 1,353 1,500 10.8% Save-A-Lot 1,191 1,329 11.5.% Note - Save-A-Lot data includes franchised stores Source: Company reports; Planet Retail.. Planet Retail’s take A multitude of shoppers gravitated to value-oriented stores during the recession and many - along with additional customer - will still be frequenting these outlets as the economy improves. It will result in strong growth opportunities for value channel merchandisers and creates a ripe environment for the launch of additional outlets and store brands. 3.3 North America Region Opportunity: Retail’s biggest players move to cash in online. Shoppers’ focus on convenience, value and price is making e-commerce an increasingly attractive merchandising vehicle for US grocers. And activity is already on the upswing. Walmart is to install lockers in 12 US stores to hold goods ordered online for shopper collection. The lockers will initially be rolled out on a test basis starting in summer 2013. Amazon has been expanding its grocery selection since its introduction in 2006. Its AmazonFresh grocery delivery service has been tested in the Seattle area since 2007. Target is piloting merchandise delivery and pick-up models. One test allows shoppers to order and pay online and pick up products instore. Another allows for online payment with items shipped from a store with a same-day delivery option. Ahold USA’s Stop & Shop division developed a smartphone application that allows customers to scan groceries, tally their orders, receive personalised savings and check-out. 27 Ahold’s Peapod home delivery service has more than 100 virtual grocery stores at high traffic locations. Customers can order items by scanning product photos on billboards with their smartphones. Planet Retail’s take Grocery e-commerce is in its infancy, but the potential payback is immense. Shoppers are going online for convenience and savings and retailers that fail to respond risk being left behind. 3.4 LATAM 3.4 LATAM Region Larger-format stores clearly generate more sales than any other channel in LATAM. However, as retailers have begun to “back-fill” inner city areas where space is at a premium, smaller formats such as discount stores (offering convenience and low prices) have become the concept of choice. LATAM: Channel Sizes by Sales, 2007-2017 (USD bn) 180 Retail Banner Sales (USD bn) 160 140 120 100 2007 80 2012 60 2017 40 20 0 Hypermarkets & Superstores Source: Planet Retail 29 Supermarkets & Neighbourhood stores Discount stores Convenience & Forecourt stores Channel Cash & Carries & Wholesale clubs Drugstores, Pharmacies & Perfumeries 3.4 LATAM Region Key Channel Trend: Hypermarkets & Superstores Channel Rules. Continued growth in hypermarkets & superstores over the last five years means the channel has remained in the top spot in Latin America despite challenges from cash & carries and discount stores. Some large conurbations show signs of saturation and, as a result, retailers are looking beyond the major cities. Second tier cities with under 50,000 inhabitants have become interesting, displaying signs of potential for the short to mid-term future. © Soriana Big-box is maintaining its dominance in the region as the key channel for expansion by the major players, although recently in the form of smaller “compact hypermarkets”. Planet Retail’s take Although hypermarkets & superstores continue to dominate, retailers are increasingly adopting a multi-channel approach. Cash & carry growth is also thriving in Latin America due to the significant size of the traditional mom and pop sector and this format’s appeal to low income groups. About three-quarters of future growth in the hypermarket channel for the whole region will derive from Mexico and Brazil and be led by Walmart, which has a strong presence in Mexico, where hypermarkets & superstores are by far the main channel. 30 3.4 LATAM Region Opportunity: Bodegas Bodegas take their name from the traditional Latin American/Spanish term for a grocery store. They fall under the discount channel as their hard line sees them offer a limited assortment of basic merchandise, focusing on food and housewares, with a high percentage of private labels. The Bodega format allows retailers to reach lower-income consumers in urban environments. The smaller size of Bodega stores. compared to superstores allows the format to reach consumers from more convenient locations. Instore services (bill-paying facilities and pharmacies) encourage return trips. Walmart has taken the lead with a variety of Bodega banners, including Bodega Aurrera (Mexico), Todo Dia (Brazil) and Changomas (Argentina). 31 Planet Retail’s take Bodegas target a growing lower income consumer group with little access to modern grocery outlets. Stores need more frequent replenishment than other larger formats – which can be a problem in emerging countries with poor supply infrastructures. Bodegas offer a limited assortment. Often shoppers need to frequent another outlet in order to buy all the items required. In the medium term, click & collect could be implemented in Latin American Bodegas, particularly in countries like Brazil where e-commerce is booming. This will offer a factor of differentiation from rivals. 3.5 Africa & Middle East 3.5 Africa & Middle East Region Though founded on a low base due to the fragmented nature of the market, growth rates in this region are impressive. Future growth will be spurred as the markets (particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa) see infrastructure improvements and develop a more modern grocery distribution system. Africa & Middle East: Channel Sizes by Sales, 2007-2017 (USD bn) 50 Retail Banner Sales (USD bn) 45 40 35 30 25 2007 20 2012 2017 15 10 5 0 Hypermarkets & Superstores Source: Planet Retail 33 Supermarkets & Neighbourhood stores Discount stores Convenience & Forecourt stores Channel Cash & Carries & Wholesale clubs Drugstores, Pharmacies & Perfumeries 3.5 Africa & Middle East Region Key Channel Trend: Modernisation Through Supermarkets & Neighbourhood Stores There are over 200,000 so-called Spaza shops (small independent neighbourhood stores) in South Africa and an estimated three million in the region. Modern market players mainly expand via supermarkets (rather than hypermarkets). Consumer habits and restrictions include: Frequent & small shopping trips and small product units, due to low car-ownership rates, small houses and storage problems (e.g. refrigeration), and unreliable electricity supply. Factors contributing to retail modernisation: Rising incomes, albeit from a low level; population growth; increased demand for more sophisticated products; continued political stabilisation in most countries, and partial infrastructure improvements. Planet Retail’s take With grocery prices traditionally high in this region due to supply chain problems, populations are looking towards modern supermarkets in the hope they will drive efficiencies, consequently meaning lower consumer prices. The lack of a reliable supplier base, predominantly poor infrastructure, low car ownership and too small a demand for broad product variety mean that hypermarkets will not a growth segment at this point in time. 34 3.5 Africa & Middle East Region Opportunity: Suppliers pushing into independent trade As retail modernisation is slow in Sub-Saharan Africa, suppliers are actively seeking opportunities to sell through independent channels. These account for 45% of South African grocery retail, and approximately 80% in Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole. The estimated three million spaza shops across Sub-Saharan Africa source most of their products through cash & carry outlets. However, the most aggressive FMCG suppliers have now switched to direct delivery, which is proving to be a very efficient route to consumers. 35 © e-spaza.com Supply chains are best developed across South Africa and in the 50+ cities with over one million inhabitants across SubSahara. As retail modernisation continues at a slow pace (and is only beginning outside South Africa), the mass market is most efficiently targeted through independent spaza shops. Planet Retail’s take Outside South Africa, Sub-Sahara continues to be a consumer market of cities, rather than countries. In an environment of comparatively well-developed infrastructure, income levels tend to be four to five times above national average in the region’s large cities. Direct spaza distribution of FMCG products (currently practised by the likes of Coca-Cola, Diageo, BAT and Oceana) requires field teams of sales representatives who will usually visit stores once a week and re-stock on the spot. High-value ranges such as tobacco are usually re-stocked through logistics partners with high levels of safety expertise. 3.5 Africa & Middle East Region Case study: Shufersal, Israel’s Discount Leader. Shufersal has played a pivotal role in developing the discount channel in the country over the last five years. In 2010-2011, it began to convert Shufersal Big hypermarkets to Shufersal Deal discount stores which quickly became a hit with consumers. The retailer has no real domestic rival - Alon Holdings Blue Square pushing a low-price formula in its Mega hypermarkets does not pose a significant threat. Shufersal’s focus on discount formats signals a major shift in its strategy. Previously, it had keen to open any format in order to prevent rivals obtaining locations. It also operates Shufersal Yesh Discount stores exclusively catering to the ultraorthodox community. 36 Planet Retail’s take Social justice protests in Israel have put tremendous pressure on product prices. Shufersal’s discount stores are a testimony to shoppers’ growing focus on price. Over the years, discount formats have changed from open market bazaar-style layouts to sophisticated retail outlets focused on the shopping experience. Poundstretcher ventured abroad by setting up its first international store in UAE in 2012 – a bold move and one likely to make more international retailers think about setting up discount stores in the Middle Eastern region. 3.6 Asia 3.6 Asia Region The two vastly different (yet somehow complimentary) hypermarket & superstore and convenience channels will remain most important in serving Asia’s grocery needs, despite discount and cash & carry being the region’s fastest-growing channels. Asia: Channel Sizes by Sales, 2007-2017 (USD bn) 400 Retail Banner Sales (USD bn) 350 300 250 200 2007 2012 150 2017 100 50 0 Hypermarkets & Superstores Source: Planet Retail 38 Supermarkets & Neighbourhood stores Discount stores Convenience & Forecourt stores Channel Cash & Carries & Wholesale clubs Drugstores, Pharmacies & Perfumeries 3.6 Asia Region Key Channel Trend: The Compact Hypermarket Emerges Despite the growth of convenience, hypermarkets remain the largest sales channel in Asia. With changing consumer trends and some countries reaching saturation it will be the Compact Hypermarket concept that is likely to drive sales in the future. The hypermarket sector is shaped by a mix of locals like AEON and Seven & I, and long-established foreign players in the region like Walmart, Tesco and Auchan. AEON is the largest hypermarket player in Asia, with around 800 outlets in 2012, having driven its expansion through mergers and acquisitions. Tesco, Walmart and Carrefour have slowed down store expansion in China, whereas Auchan (in partnership with RT-Mart ) plans aggressive expansion especially in tier 3 and 4 cities. Planet Retail’s take Auchan is to expand its hypermarkets in India and China. It has major expansion plans for China, targeting tier 3 and 4 cities. However, low consumer spending in these cities and different shopping patterns will be a challenge for the retailer. Auchan could launch its compact hypermarket concept Auchan City in Asia, which it already operates successfully in Russia. Auchan will become the second-biggest hypermarket player in Asia by 2017, overtaking Walmart, Seven & I and Tesco. It will likely enter new markets like Vietnam in the next five years. Japan’s AEON, which acquired Carrefour stores in Thailand 2012, is likely to establish a foothold through M&A in Indonesia and market entry into Cambodia in 2014. 39 3.6 Asia Region Opportunity: Young, tech-savvy shoppers spend online. Across much of Asia, while online spending is small, access to mobile technology is growing, offering huge potential for players in the e-commerce channel. Even developed markets like Japan see a relatively small proportion of grocery spending directed to the e-commerce channel, due to traditional cultural preferences. That said, potential lies in the huge young population in many Asian markets. This more tech-savvy demographic contains enormous promise for sustained online development through e-commerce and m-commerce. Tesco’s Asian strategy of investing a significant amount of capex to develop its e-commerce offering across all operational markets is a prime example of how retailers should be thinking. 40 Planet Retail’s take Set-up costs for online grocery operations in Asia are likely to be considerable, especially in light of delivery costs, which can be high due to poor infrastructure. Tesco would be wise to pursue a roll-out of grocery click & collect services if the venture is to prove profitable. It has already unveiled plans to pilot such services in Thailand following trials in the UK and Czech Republic. Planning to launch its e-commerce venture in Shanghai, Tesco will face major competition from Walmart’s Yihaodian, which already has a strong presence in Shanghai, specialising in grocery e-commerce. 3.7 Oceania 3.7 Oceania Region Oceania’s sparse population means there is too small a demand to support a higher number of big-box outlets, as a result the majority of sales are generated in the supermarkets & neighbourhood stores channel. Oceania: Channel Sizes by Sales, 2007-2017 (USD bn) 140 Retail Banner Sales (USD bn) 120 100 80 2007 60 2012 2017 40 20 0 Hypermarkets & Superstores Source: Planet Retail 42 Supermarkets & Neighbourhood stores Discount stores Convenience & Forecourt stores Channel Cash & Carries & Wholesale clubs Drugstores, Pharmacies & Perfumeries 3.7 Oceania Region Key Channel Trend: Aldi, Australia’s Discount Giant Growing at the fastest rate over the last five years has been the discount channel, thanks largely to Aldi’s Australian operation. Aldi (Süd) has been on a rapid expansion drive on Australia’s east coast since its market entry in 2001, having opened 300 outlets by the end of its last fiscal year. The retailer has been able to develop without any real domestic competition. Its strategy has been to establish a brand presence in local areas before growing its reach geographically. As a result, the retailer is still very much concentrated in the south-east pocket of Australia. It sees the potential for approximately 500 stores in the area before looking at moving further afield. 43 Planet Retail’s take Traditionally, grocery prices are high in this region due to its geographical distance from other large land masses and a vast amount of uninhabited territory entailing increased supply costs, as well as the market’s duopolistic competitive environment. Aldi’s discount format offers something different to the Australian public – a key reason behind its success. Aldi’s market entry and subsequent expansion has been a contributing factor to the current price war between the major supermarket chains Woolworths and Coles. 3.7 Oceania Region Opportunity: Convenience & forecourt stores serving the busy consumer. Though the last five years may have been ruled by the discount channel, a wealth of opportunity lies in the convenience arena for the future. The lack of established The an lack of an established convenience store chain like 7Eleven in New means there7-Eleven is a gap in this highly convenience storeZealand chain like concentrated grocery market. Foodstuffs’ On The Spot in New Zealand means there is a gap chain’s growth has remained fairly stagnant and thus the arena is still very much dominated by local indies. in this highly concentrated grocery market. Growth for Foodstuffs’ On The Spot chain has remained fairly stagnant and thus the arena is still very much dominated by local independents. 44 © coles.com.au Australia is massively under-served by Australia is massively underserved by the convenience the convenience channel. Even though channel. Though the likes of 7-Eleven (which operates over 600 7-Eleven outlets in the country) present, the the major grocery the likes of are are present, chains have all overlooked the channel in favour of larger major grocery chains for the supermarket formats. have, However, smaller formats offering top-up items and pre-made meals could fill a need most part,those overlooked this channel in from with busy lifestyles living in Australia’s major urban . supermarket formats. favour of districts larger Planet Retail’s take Considering the level of urban development the key countries in the region have reached it is surprising how underdeveloped the convenience channel is. Smaller formats offering top-up items and pre-made meals could fill a need from consumers with busy lifestyles living in Australasia’s major urban districts. Woolworths and Coles in Australia are both developing their grocery e-commerce offering and steadily introducing click & collect across their networks. 4. Summary & Implications 4. Summary & Implications Channel strategies must be tailored on a regional level due to differing consumer cultures and stages of market development. However, as an overall trend we are seeing less demand for big-box stores and greater focus being placed on small, conveniently located outlets complimented by a wider online offer. Western European retailers’ profits taking a hit. Retailers operating in developed nations are struggling to maintain profitability at their larger out-of-town stores as convenience and online shopping channels prevail. Those operating in developing markets can benefit from being ‘one step ahead’ when considering whether a similar future lies ahead for their hypermarket format stores and may wish to adjust their strategies accordingly. For multinationals, flexibility is imperative. Taking a varied, multi-channel approach reduces risk when considering the mid- to long-term impact of cultural shifts, changing consumer patterns, governmental influence, technological developments (and access) and economic factors. A multi-format strategy also allows a retailer the flexibility to pursue different opportunities, including market entries, pricing and store locations. North America & Oceania moving at a slower pace. Not all developed markets are experiencing consumer acceptance of e-commerce, m-commerce, click & collect and Drive at the same fast rate as the more densely populated Western Europe. However, retailers should still expect similar consumer desires – arising from busy lifestyles and access to technology - to emerge. 46 4. Summary & Implications Local and international suppliers must also be aware of the Channel trends occurring on a regional level around the world. Suppliers will need to predict and adapt to changes in Channel trends by taking a flexible approach to supply and distribution. Tailor offer for different channels. As already being witnessed at many Discount chains, national brands are able to penetrate the channel while avoiding cannibalising their own sales at other store formats by manufacturing products in different pack sizes. Beware, smaller formats means less shelf space. Suppliers will be required to adapt by offering retailers appropriately sized products, single or smaller multi-pack sizes and different promotions (with less of a focus on multi-buy). A reduced amount of space for SKUs also increases the chance that brands will be dropped by retailers – especially in favour of their own private label lines. Profit squeezes passed on to suppliers. As store sizes shrink, retailer margins will be pressed and the profit squeeze could be filtered through to suppliers. Online ‘shelves’ should be viewed as complimentary. The burgeoning e-commerce channel may lead customer buying patterns in the opposite direction, as they are able to buy larger pack sizes and quantities without the need to consider transporting their purchases home. 47 Author LOUISE HOWARTH Senior Retail Analyst Louise.Howarth@4c.planetretail.net Louise Howarth is a Senior Retail Analyst based in London, covering the Oceania retail market in addition to the global electronics and office sectors. She has also spent time in the US supporting Planet Retail’s North America team. Louise has a Degree in Geography from the University of Leeds in the UK. Contributing analysts: Milos Ryba, Carlos Hernandez, Rich Mitchell, Manu Ghai, Tatjana Wolff. 48 All images ©Planet Retail Ltd unless otherwise stated. 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