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Global Hunger and Food Security series
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28 October 2011
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A Collaborative Exercise

What three words would you use to describe industrial
agriculture and its food system?
o Write these words on one half-sheet of paper.
o Hand this in.

What additional words or phrases should we add to the
sticky wall to complete the picture?

What challenges pose significant risks for industrial
agriculture?
o Jot these down in a few words on a half-sheet of paper.
o Hand it in.

Which challenges are the most threatening to industrial
agriculture and its food system?
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Energy, Ecological Degradation, & Climate Change
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Overall energy use in the U.S. food system
o Energy use by households (appliances, trips to grocery store) is a
bigger factor than processing, fertilizers, or food miles!
Source: Post Carbon Institute & USDA

U.S. energy inputs for different foods
o Daily per capita energy
input for junk foods and
drinks is even higher than
the energy input for animal
products.
o Healthiest foods (fruits,
vegetables, and grains) have the
lowest energy input.
o Total daily per capita energy input
is 17,000 calories. This is more than
8-fold higher than the recommended
calorie intake per person.
Source: Post Carbon Institute & USDA

“Peak soil”
o US soil depletion is 10-20x faster than natural replenishment.
(Pimentel 2006)
o Globally, erosion destroys cropland the size of Indiana annually.
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Loss of beneficial species
o Insecticides kill beneficial
species (including pollinators
and pest predators) along
with pest species.
o Colony collapse disorder has
affected nearly 1/3 of all
honeybees in the US. (Source:
Natural Resources Defense
Council)
o Globally, the use of “elite
germplasm” and expansion
of fields threaten the survival
of heirloom and locallyadapted varieties.
Source: NY Times 2007
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Loss of beneficial species
o Soil biodiversity affects
infiltration and storage of
water, resistance to erosion,
nutrient cycling, soil fertility,
carbon sequestration, and
crop health.
o Soil organisms are affected
by temperature, moisture,
soil texture, salinity, pH, and
biotic factors (such as
interactions with plant roots).
o The effects of intensive
agricultural practices on soil
biodiversity are still largely
unknown.
Source: Matson et al. 1997
Phenomenon and direction of trend
Over most land areas, warmer and
fewer cold days and nights, warmer and
more frequent hot days and nights
Likelihood of
Agriculture, forestry and ecosystems
future trends
Virtually
certain
Increased yields in colder environments;
decreased yields in warmer environments;
increased insect outbreaks
Warm spells/heat waves. Frequency
increases over most land areas
Very likely
Reduced yields in warmer regions due to
heat stress; increased danger of wildfire
Heavy precipitation events. Frequency
increases over most areas
Very likely
Damage to crops; soil erosion, inability to
cultivate land due to waterlogging of soils
Area affected by drought increases
Likely
Land degradation; lower yields/crop
damage and failure; increased livestock
deaths; increased risk of wildfire
Intense tropical cyclone activity
increases
Likely
Damage to crops; windthrow (uprooting) of
trees; damage to coral reefs
Increased incidence of extreme high
sea level (excludes tsunamis)
Likely
Salinisation of irrigation water, estuaries
and fresh- water systems
Source: IPCC 2007 Synthesis Report
Source: Fischer et al. 2002
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
What three words would you use to describe what
sustainable food systems look like?
o Write these words on one half-sheet of paper.
o Hand this in.

What additional words or phrases should we add to the
sticky wall to complete the picture?

1.
2.
3.
4.
“To be sustainable, a farming system needs to be
sufficiently productive, robust (be able to continue to meet
goals in the face of stresses and fluctuating conditions),
use resources efficiently, and balance the four goals.”
Satisfy human food, feed, and fiber
needs, and contribute to biofuel needs.
Enhance environmental quality
and the resource base.
Sustain the economic viability of
agriculture.
Enhance the quality of life for farmers,
farm workers, and society as a whole.
1.
Understanding systems and their dynamic behaviors
2.
Intervening in systems to affect change
3.
Transitioning to sustainable food systems in the face of
unprecedented challenges
o Socioeconomic and political priorities
o Scientific priorities
o Educational priorities
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Systems are comprised of
stocks interconnected by
flows and self-regulated by
feedback loops.
Strengths of different loops
often determine the
dynamics of system
behaviors.
A system is always more
than the sum of its parts.
Often the least obvious part
is a crucial determinant of
its behavior.
Vensim model of crop production
Source: Meadows 2008
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1.
2.
3.
Why Systems Work So Well
Stressing a system often causes it to
become more resilient (able to bounce
back). This is due to feedback loops.
Most systems are self-organized (they
adapt, learn, develop, and “complexify”
through the use of simple rules).
This is a source of heterogeneity and unpredictability.
Self-organizing systems generate hierarchies
(aggregations of subsystems). These evolve from the
bottom up and become a source of stability and resilience.
Source: Meadows 2008
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1.
2.
3.
Systems surprise us
Everything we think we know is a model.
Models usually have strong congruence with
the world.
However, models always fall short in fully
representing the world.
o Bounded rationality:
Our knowledge is always incomplete.
o “The bounded rationality of each actor in a system – determined by the
information, incentives, disincentives, goals, stresses, and constraints
impinging upon that actor – may or may not lead to decisions that
further the welfare of the system as a whole. If they do not, putting new
actors into the same system will not improve the system’s performance.
What makes a difference is redesigning the system to improve the
information, incentives, disincentives, goals, stresses, and constraints
that have an effect on specific actors.” (Meadows, p. 110)
The Top Twelve Most Effective Leverage Points:
12. Constants: alter subsidies, taxes, standards
11. Buffers: change size of stabilizing stocks relative to flows
10. Physical structure: rebuild stocks and flows
9. Delays: alter rates of flows and feedback loops
8. Balancing feedback loops: match the strength of these loops to the
impact they are designed to correct
7.
Reinforcing feedback loops: reduce the gain of these loops to slow
growth in the system
6. Information flows: add or restore missing info flows and accountability
5. Rules: alter incentives, punishments, constraints
4. Self-organization: add, change, or evolve system structure
Source: Meadows 2008
The Top Twelve Most Effective Leverage Points:
3. Goals: change the purpose or function of a whole-system goal
o
Who is wielding power for what purpose?
o
What should be the system’s most important goal?
2. Paradigms: alter the mindset out of which the system arises
o
Point out the anomalies and failures of the old paradigm and keep
advocating for the new one.
o
Work with change agents and the open-minded, not with
reactionaries.
1. Transcending paradigms: keep yourself unattached
o
In light of bounded rationality, no paradigm truly reflects the entire
spacious reality of the universe.
“Manifesto: The Mad Farmer Liberation Front”
by Wendell Berry
Source: Meadows 2008
Socioeconomic and political priorities
 From consolidation & specialization to modularity & diversification
o Consolidation – ADM, Cargill, ConAgra exert control “from seed to shelf”
o Specialization – Growers under contract to produce one or two species
o Modularity – “Foodshed” concept envisions regional networks of
interdependent producers, companies, citizens, researchers…
o Diversification – Improve resilience economically and ecologically

Reform agricultural policies
o Inverted food pyramids – US
farm subsidies work at cross
purposes with US nutritional
recommendations
o Sustainable food policies –
build resilient food systems
that promote human health
and climate mitigation
Scientific and technological priorities
 Incremental approaches – practices and technologies that
address specific production and/or environmental concerns
associated with industrial agriculture
o Two-year crop rotations instead of continuous cropping
o Precision agriculture using GPS navigation
o New varieties produced via classical breeding
and/or genetic engineering
o Reduced tillage or no-till practices that save
fuel and reduce erosion
o Integrative pest management

These help, but even in aggregate, they
do not solve sustainability concerns.
Economic
Growth
Social
Progress
Environmental
Stewardship
Scientific and technological priorities
 Transformative approach – relies on whole-system redesign
and synergies with natural systems
o Couple mixed-crop and livestock systems (e.g. aquaponics)
o Organic farming with polycultures
o Development of perennial grains
o Direct-marketing (e.g. CSAs, farm-to-cafeteria)
o Urban organic agriculture


Move towards sustainability by integrating
ecological, socioeconomic, and
profitability objectives.
Hindered by existing market structures,
agricultural policies, and prevailing
paradigms.
Source: http://www.gcbl.org/economy
Scientific and technological priorities
 Agroecosystem paradigm
o Ecosystem is a “functional system of complementary relations between
living organisms and their environment [that maintain] a steady yet
dynamic equilibrium”.
o Agroecosystem is a “complex set of biological, physical, chemical,
ecological, and cultural interactions determining the processes that
permit us to achieve and sustain yields.”

Key emergent qualities (research priorities)
1.
2.
3.
4.
Energy flow – need to maximize use of renewable sources
Nutrient cycling – need to close nutrient loop (sewage recycling)
Population regulation – need diverse structures and species
relationships that permit natural control and regulation mechanisms
Dynamic equilibrium – need sufficient structural and functional
complexity in the system to enable resistance and resilience
Source: Stephen R Gliessman
Scientific and technological priorities
 Back to the future
o “Traditional and indigenous agroecosystems are different from
conventional systems in that they developed originally in times or
places where inputs other than human labor or local resources were
generally not available... Production takes place in ways that
demonstrate people’s concerns about long-term sustainability of the
system, rather than solely maximizing output and profit.”
o “Traditional agroecosystems… can serve as the starting point for the
conversion to more sustainable agroecosystems.”

Building sustainable agroecosystems
o Knowledge of place (local ecology and local limits)
o Wisdom of past experience (successes and failures)
o Knowledge of environmentally-sound management practices
o Redesigning the system to bring out ecological processes and natural
control mechanisms with human management
Source: Stephen R Gliessman
Scientific and technological priorities
 Some implications
o Agroecoystems will likely have somewhat lower and more variable
yields than industrial systems, but this will be offset by reduced
reliance on external inputs, more reliance on natural control of
pests, and reduced negative impacts off-farm.
o Agroecosystems will likely require more labor and this, in turn, will
likely reverse the trend towards “get big or get out”.
o Agriculture is the result of a coevolution. Thus, innovations in
sustainable agriculture co-require cultural transformations.
o The transition to sustainable food systems is inherently
interdisciplinary, encompassing ecological, social, economic, and
political, philosophical, and religious dimensions of life.
Source: Stephen R Gliessman
Educational priorities
 Teach key concepts through societal challenges
o Societal challenges are too great for a “business as usual” approach

Link experiential learning to communal priorities and values
o Hone problem-solving, scientific reasoning, computation, teamwork,
and communication skills through community-oriented projects

Teach scientifically
o Mentor by modeling systems thinking and problem-solving
o Regularly use assessments to monitor learning gains
o Employ pedagogies of engagement that reflect best research on
how people learn