Experimental risk assessment for dispersal, invasion, and impact on wild algae of genetically-modified Scenedesmus dimorphus UCSD Shovon Mandal Nathan Schoepp Jonathan Shurin Steven Mayfield Michael Burkart Ryan Stewart Steven Villareal Sapphire Energy Shawn Szyjka Yan Poon Briana Niessen Synthetic biology to improve algae biofuel feedstocks: What are the risks to native ecosystems? Three stages of invasion: dispersal, establishment, impact Three stages of invasion: dispersal, establishment, impact Three stages of invasion: dispersal, establishment, impact Measuring dispersal Measuring dispersal A- days to invasion 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% E B- percent invaded 20 10 34 0 21 >59 26 42 34 50 40 100 100 0 100 Distance: P=0.0003 100 Distance*direction: P=0.004 75 75 -10 32 30 (m/s) Frequency of counts by wind direction (%) 20 30 0 to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 10 mean = 0.681 S calm = 15.8% 0 0 40 W distance North (meters) > 59 -10 distance North (meters) 50 N -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 distance East (meters) -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 distance East (meters) Measuring dispersal A- days to invasion 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% E B- percent invaded 20 10 34 0 21 >59 26 42 34 50 40 30 (m/s) Frequency of counts by wind direction (%) 20 30 0 to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 100 10 mean = 0.681 S calm = 15.8% 0 100 0 0 40 W distance North (meters) > 59 100 75 75 100 -10 32 -10 distance North (meters) 50 N -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 distance East (meters) -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 distance East (meters) Measuring colonization in native plankton Population grows in all lakes regardless of starting density 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.2 10^6 10^5 10^4 10^3 10^6 10^5 10^4 10^3 10^6 10^5 10^4 10^3 Initial density (cells/ml) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 GM WT 0.0 0.2 0.0 10^6 10^5 10^4 10^3 Santee 0.4 0.6 0.8 Lindo 0.4 0.6 10^6 10^5 10^4 10^3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 r (day-1) Poway 0.8 Murray 0.8 Miramar Lake: P<0.001 Density: P<0.001 Lake*density: P=0.01 Measuring impact • Does invasion affect diversity, composition or biomass of native algal species? No effect of GMO on algal biomass 1 8 15 Day 24 1 8 15 Day 24 1 8 15 Day 24 6 Santee 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Lindo 4 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 GM WT C 0 Chlorophyll-a (log ug/L) Poway 6 Murray 6 Miramar 1 10 22 1 10 Day Lake: P<0.0001 Treatment: P<0.0001 Date: P=0.0003 Lake*treatment: P=0.02 22 Day Control WT GM Santee Lindo Poway Miramar Lake: P<0.0001 Lake*treatment: P=0.06 Murray number of algal species 0 5 10 No effects on native diversity No effects on native species composition RDA2 0.5 1.5 Santee GM Control WT -0.5 Lindo Scenedesmus addition Miramar Poway Murray -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 RDA1 0.5 Unproductive lakes 1.0 Conditions for spread of GMO algae Dispersal • GM Scenedesmus colonize tanks up to 50m from raceway • Dispersal rate declines with distance from source Conditions for spread of GMO algae Dispersal Invasion • GM and Wild-type Scenedesmus populations grow in lake water with native plankton communities at any starting density Conditions for spread of GMO algae Dispersal Invasion x Impact • No apparent effects on biomass, diversity or composition of native algae What risks do GMO algae pose to native ecosystems? • Modified or unmodified algae are likely to disperse from cultivation and colonize natural water bodies • GM Scenedesmus is ecologically indistinguishable from WT in its impact on native ecosystems