Impacts Of Future Lifestyles On
Residential Recycling Programs
Canadian Waste Sector Symposium
Montreal, Quebec
November 9, 2011
Geoff Love, Love Environment
Maria Kelleher, Kelleher Environmental
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Presentation Outline
Looking at the future
 Start with the past and present

◦ Brief look at how residential recycling has
evolved
◦ Recent changes to residential recycling
materials
Research on future lifestyles
 What this means for residential recycling
system planning
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Residential Recycling in 1980’s and
1990’s
Life used to be simple (in the old days!)
Many original residential recycling programs developed
in Canada and the US late 1980’s and 1990’s
 For 20 years, our efforts have focussed on:
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Collecting paper, glass, metals, plastics
Expanding materials we collect
Stabilizing markets for processed materials
Increasing participation and capture of materials
Driving recovery up and driving costs down
Making the system more efficient
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Recycling Systems More Complex
From 2005 On….
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More materials added to residential recycling programs
Green Bin programs added to complexity of collection
More single stream recycling systems
MRFs became larger and more complex
More user pay systems and container limits
Less garbage
◦ some communities moved to bi-weekly garbage collection
◦ increased capture in recycling programs
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Composition and amounts of recyclables stayed
generally the same
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Things began to Change in the late
2000’s
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Composition of recycling stream began to change
Residue rates increased
Markets began to complain about quality of
materials from MRFs
Operators began to notice a drop in ONP
(significant in some cases) and increase in OCC
With drop in paper and increase in convenience
packaging, composition of recycling stream very
different to a few years earlier – more
items/picks; less weight/tonnes
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Implications of Changing Residential
Recycling Material Composition on
Recycling System
More plastics, less glass, less newspapers, more
corrugated containers
 Impacts on collection system
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Less heavier material
More lightweight and low density material
Truck will cube out sooner
Increases collection costs
MRF designs need to change to accommodate
different material mix
 Material revenues will be affected (reduced)
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Toronto Recycling Material
Revenues (to the mid 2000s)
71% to 75% of revenues from paper
 10% of revenues from aluminum
 10% to 12% of revenues from HDPE and
PET
 If paper continues to decrease, impacts on
revenues could be significant
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Background to Toronto Future Blue
Bin Study (2010)
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Toronto Residential Garbage, Green Bin and Blue Bin
tonnages all lower 2009 vs 2008
Significant drop in paper fibres collected 2009 vs
2008 (15%)
Lower paper tonnages had a significant impact on
program revenues
10-year Business Plan was being developed
Staff needed to understand materials and amounts in
the future Blue Bin for business planning
Kelleher Environmental hired to carry out a “high
level” study to provide directional information
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Future Blue Bin Study Project
Elements
Research future lifestyles
 Research future packaging trends
 Carry out in-store “packaging audits”
 Develop projections of Blue Bin tonnages
and composition by material for 5 years
and 10 years out
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Predicting the Future Is Challenging

You can try to put well researched facts into
sophisticated models, however, these are not
always right…
◦ Leisure society due to automation
◦ “Paperless” society
Bigger picture – life is changing and will continue
to change
 The future is not “more of the same” – not just
faster computers, high tech cars, smarter homes,
more TV channels, but something different
 Large body of work by “futurists” used for this
study
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Literature on the Future
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“I’ve seen the future brother, and its murder”
- Leonard Cohen
Futurists:
◦ Centre for Future Studies; The Futurist; Forum for
the Future; World Future Society, etc
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More traditional literature:
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Canadian Food Trends to 2020
The Future Consumer (Capgemini, UK)
The Future of Consumer Products Industry (IBM Global)
Twilight of the American Newspaper
Demographic Trends, etc.
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Demographic Trends
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Aging Canadians
◦ we are living longer
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Evolving Households
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Smaller households
Fewer Children
More 1-person households
More urban dwellers
More multi-family units (>50% in Toronto)
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Lifestyle Trends
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The Internet …(has changed everything)
Handheld and mobile devices changing the way we live
and communicate
Changing meal patterns – fewer family dinners
 Shifting expenditures – more take away food
 Newer faces in Canada – larger variety of foods
 More shopping via internet – more food packaging
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Convenience is king…
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Re-sealable packages
More ready to eat meals - e.g. salads from grocery stores
Complicated packaging (to accommodate arthritic hands)
More plastic packaging
Smaller portion packaging
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The “Death” of Newspapers
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Ontario ONP Numbers Dropping
Significantly 2007 to 2009
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
-
2003
2004
2005
Recycled
2006
2007
Disposed
2008
2009
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Impacts Of Drop in ONP in MRF
Printed paper was 55% ONP; 45% other
paper
 Now 45% or less ONP; 55% or more other
paper
 Harder/impossible to create #8 News bale
 MRFs now produce #6 News bale
 Mills are getting used to this change (as they
need the fibre)
 Used to think this was single stream system
issue – now understand its a more complex
combination of factors at play
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Impacts of Internet on Residential
Recycling
Less/smaller newspapers
 More shopping by internet
 Purchases are delivered by corrugated or
boxboard container
 More OCC and OBB showing up in
residential recycling programs
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Growth in US Internet Sales
(as % of total sales)
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Growth in Canadian Internet Sales
($ billion per year)
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12 Packaging Trends Which Will
Impact Residential Recycling
Light-weighting
2. Increase in multi-layer packaging
3. Material substitution (mostly plastic replacing glass, Al, steel)
4. More fruits/veg packaged in thermoform plastic
5. More ready cooked meals and take out packaging (in
thermoform plastic)
6. SUPs (stand up pouches)
7. Re-sealable packaging
8. More smaller single serve packages
9. More snack packaging
10. Brand owner and retailer led initiative (Sustainable packaging)
11. Smart packaging – can tell when food is beginning to decay
12. Increase in bio-based packaging
1.
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Projected Residential Recycling
Material Changes
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Relative amounts of fibre and containers will change over
time
◦ More plastic, less paper
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Newsprint amounts will decrease over time
 Toronto ONP down 15% 2008 to 2009
OCC will increase over time
Amount of plastic packaging will increase
Glass will decrease
Metals will stay about the same
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Background To Toronto 2010
Packaging Audits
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Identify extent to which consumer items
purchased in Toronto stores were in
packaging which is:
◦ Recyclable now or
◦ Could be recycled in the future or
◦ Is unlikely to be recycled in the future
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Look at packaging audit methods used
elsewhere and modify to suit Toronto 2010
circumstances
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Packaging Audit Approaches From
Other Jurisdictions
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“War on Waste” - UK Local Government
Association
◦ purchase basket of goods (30) in 8 different
stores to compare packaging efficiency
◦ Repeated 2007, 2008, 2009
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The ULS (Use Less Stuff) Packaging
Efficiency Study as it Relates To Waste
Prevention (US)
◦ 300 products in different packaging formats
◦ Repeated 1995, 2007
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2010 Packaging Audits
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Purchased 150 items in large grocery store:
◦ Consumer Price Index list (60 items) – reflected
typical “shopping basket” in the early Blue Box years
◦ Use Less Stuff (ULS) US report list
◦ New products identified through store visit which
would not have been popular when CPI started
◦ New packaging formats which are gaining in
popularity
Weighed empty package (each component) and
package when full of product
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2010 Packaging Audits
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Categorize each component as:
◦ Recyclable now;
◦ Recyclable in all plastic film program;
◦ Recyclable in all plastics program;
◦ Not recyclable for foreseeable future
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“Normalize” the data to take account of
typical annual purchases of each product.
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Packaging Audit Results By Weight
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Packaging Audit Conclusions
Audit provides “snapshot” of the range of
packaging formats
 Many packages are recycled in current
Toronto program
 “All film” program would increase diversion
 Increase in thermoform PET for wide range
of products
 “All plastics” program would increase
diversion
 Many multi-layer packages which are not
recyclable
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Comparison of Canadian Imports and
Exports of PCF from 2000-2009
3,000,000
2,500,000
Import Tonnes
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
Export Tonnes
500,000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Import Tonnes
2005
2006
Export Tonnes
2007
2008
2009
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We collect it…we just can use (all) of it
25
20
Canadian
Production
(Million
Tonnes)
15
10
Canadian
5
Consumption
(Million
Tonnes)
0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Production MIL Tonnes
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Consumption MIL Tonnes
2007
2008
2009
2010
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Plastics Exports (in pounds)
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Plastic export graph from Jerry Powell
presentation at Halifax
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The China Factor: Growth in Paper
Manufacturing Business (2000 to 2015)
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Implications Of Changing
Composition on Business Planning
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Future tonnages and composition impact
on:
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Collection
Processing
Markets
Revenues
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Future Scenarios
• Based on Forum for the Future DEFRA work
in UK
◦ Modified for Canada/Toronto
Three Scenarios Developed
 Status Quo – focus on regional
 Fast Changes – good economy, increased oil
prices, focus on global
 Smaller World – bad economy, very high
energy prices, focus on local
 Most Likely Scenario - Hybrid
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Recycling Material Tonnages in
Toronto 2020 vs 2010 Baseline
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15% reduction in weight per household of
printed paper and packaging in Blue Bin over 10
years
◦ Reduction of 18% paper kg/hh/year
◦ 17% increase in plastic kg/hh/year
◦ Amount of metals stays the same – flat
kg/hh/year
◦ Decrease of 50% glass kg/hh/year
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Conclusions
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The world is changing at a rapid rate:
◦ Lifestyles are changing
◦ Packaging formats are changing
All of these changes impact on recycling
business plans
 Toronto Future Blue Bin Study was first to
look at this issue and translate estimates
into Business Planning
 Need to “refresh” the lifestyle and packaging
research annually or bi-annually to catch new
trends and plan for their impacts
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Thank You

Geoff Love
◦ loveenvironment@routcom.com
◦ 647-248-2500

Maria Kelleher
◦ maria@kellenv.com
◦ 416-567-7439
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