The Crisis

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VIPs and
Crisis Management
Giovanni Marizza
[email protected]
26 May 2014, 15.00 – 19.00
Chaim Weizmann
The Crisis:

World War 1, opportunity of establishing a
Jewish «foyer» in Palestine, 1918
The Crisis Management:



Correct forecast, supporting the winners
Employment of a Jewish Brigade with the
British troops
Balfour Declaration annexed to the Peace
treaty
The Result:

Success: base for the future establishment of
a Jewish State
David Ben-Gurion
ִ -‫דָּ וִד בֶּן‬
‫ּגּורּיֹון‬
The Crisis:

World War 2, Shoah:
The Crisis Management:





Again employment of Jewish military units
with British troops
Sharpness
Farsightedness
Capacity of foresight
Exploitation of the western excitability
The Result:

Success: establishment of the self-declared
Jewish state, military regional power

Problem: source of instability for the region
(wars with Arab States), not yet solved

Yesterday Pope Francis: “Two states!”
Valentina
Imre Nagy
The Crisis:

Uprising in Hungary, 1956
The Crisis Management:



No help by the West
NATO: No Action, Talk Only
Contemporary Suez crisis, catalyzing the
Western attention
The Result:




Failure, repression
Communist regime consolidated
Nagy killed by the Soviets
43 years later: Hungary first to join NATO
Gamal Abdel Nasser
The Crisis:

Suez crisis, 1956
The crisis management:





Willingness of exploiting the Arab pride
Blockade of the Canal, nationalization of
the “Company of the Suez Canal” (FR-UK
property)
Underevaluation of the Western resolve
Ingenuousness after the FR-UK ultimatum
Incapacity to recognize the Western trap
End of the crisis:
US/SU intervention


USA : colonial enterprise, threat to damage
British interests by economic means
USSR: threat to “nuke” London and Paris
The result:


Failure
Canal reopened
Martin
Charles De Gaulle
The Crisis:

Independence of Algeria, 1954-1962
The Crisis Management:







Uprising: born in Indochina (1954)
1954-62: Counter-insurgency, torture,
terrorism, napalm, concentration camps
(2M)
FLN: based in Egypt (!)
1958: pied-noirs favour the return of CDG
CDG strategy: ambiguity, new constitution,
Algeria “associated territory”
Internal fracture
6 July 1962: referendum, independence
The Result:




More failure than success
Algeria independent
France close to civil war
European territory loses more than 50%
John Fitzgerald Kennedy
The Crisis:

Pig Bay enterprise, Cuba, 1961
The Crisis Management:




Approximate planning by CIA during the
Eisenhower presidency
3 monts after JFK election: Operation
Zapata vs Castro regime (politico-economic
reasons)
Cuban expatriates and CIA agents landing
in Cuba
Excessive confidence in Cuban population
behaviour
The Result:



Complete failure
Damage for the image of JFK (electoral
campaign: peace, freedom…)
Kruscev: “Of what freedom are you
speaking?”
Andrea
John Fitzgerald Kennedy
ISO-8859
FORID:11
partner-pu

The Crisis:
Missiles crisis, Cuba, 1963
The Crisis Management:


Correct diplomatic action
Avoiding any military intervention
The Result:



Success: Soviet withdrawal
Missiles threath disappeared
Failure: US promised to tolerate the Cuban
communist regime (source of instability for
the region and outside, exportation of the
revolution, regime surviving still today)
Yuri
Aleksander Dubcek
The Crisis:

Uprising in Czechoslowakia, Prague Spring
1968
The Crisis Management:



NATO cannot intervene
Doctrine Breznev (Limited sovereignty)
Warsaw Pact (minus Romania) intervenes
militarily
The Result:


Failure, but:
31 years later: Czech Republic first to join
NATO
Herbert Ernst Karl Frahm
Herbert Ernst Karl Frahm
(Willy Brandt)
The Crisis:

Palestinian attack to the Israeli Olimpic
Team, Munich, 1972
The Crisis Management:



Unpreparedness
Superficiality
Refusal of the offer by a specialized Israeli
team
The Result:


Failure
...but the terrorists were all captured and
killed by Mossad
Yitzhak Rabin
‫יצחק רבין‬
The Crisis:

Entebbe raid, Uganda, 1976
The Crisis Management:




High risk, but:
Perfect planning
Perfect simulation (airport similar to that of
Entebbe, in order to train the Special
Forces)
High professionality
The Result:

Great success
Jimmy Carter
The Crisis:

Hostages kidnapping, US embassy Tehran,
1979-1981
The Crisis Management



Military option:
Imperfect planning
Misfortune (sandstorm, crash between 2
aircraft)
The Result:


Complete failure
Hostages released after 444 days (as soon as
the successor of Carter was elected)
Ronald Reagan
The Crisis:

1980: Alarm about Global Warming
The Crisis Management:




Alarmistic report under Carter presidency
(Jason advisory organization)
Nierenberg report (with fake data, in order
to reduce alarm)
The survival of industrial/technological
lobby prevails on the survivability of
common people (Great Smog, UK!)
Political will dominates scientific world
The Result:


Partial success (the problem is postponed)
Failure: combating global warming today is
more difficult
Menachem Begin
‫מנחם בגין‬
The Crisis:

Destruction of the nuclear reactor Osirak,
Iraq 1981
The Crisis Management:




Perfect planning
Courage
Calculated external risk (international
community, USA included, against
preventive attacks)
Acceptance of internal risk (in case of
failure, Israeli government had to resign)
The Result:



Perfect success
End of Iraqi nuclear ambitions
Israel: a safer country
Rebecca
Margaret Thatcher
The Crisis:

Falklands / Malvinas war
The Crisis Management:



Strong resolve
Authoritarian management
(Iron Lady)
The Result:


Success
British pride
Margaret Thatcher
The Crisis:

1985: measures against hooligans after the
Heysel tragedy (Bruxelles)
The Crisis Management:



Strong and immediate countermeasures
adopted by the Brish Government against
Supporter Clubs
Prohibition of external activities
British Government: more effective than
UEFA
The Result:



Success
Defeat of violent hooligans
Good example (not always followed) for
foreign countries
Olof Palme
The crisis:

Threat of Prime Minister’s assassination
The crisis management:



Refusal of personal protection by Olof
Palme
Decision to adopt a low profile by SocialDemocratic Party just to contradict the
predecessor Liberal Party
Mix of ideology, idealism, fatalism,
underestimation of the threat
The result:

Failure, assassination of Prime Minister
Mihail Gorbaciov
The Crisis:

Chernobyl disaster, 1986
The Crisis Management



Underevaluation of the threat
Maintaining the secret
Ineffective measures
The Result:

Failure
Saddam Hussein
The crisis:

1990: Iraq occupies Kuwait; kidnapping of
Western hostages (human shields)
The crisis management





10.000 hostages
Aim 1: dissuade West from bombing
Aim 2: divide each state (government /
public opinion)
EU prohibits talks with SH (solution: secret
talks)
Dozens of trips to Iraq by VIPs, IPs, LIPs or
NAOIPs
The result:


Immediate Iraqi success, Western world
extremely divided
At medium-long term: a failure (war, loss of
Kuwait, SH ousted, captured, jailed, trialed,
hanged)
Aldo Ajello
The Crisis:

Mozambique civil war and UN
intervention, 1992-1994
The Crisis Management:








Application of the perfect algorythm:
- UN deployment
- demining
- withdrawal of refugees
- collecting weapons
- elections
- new army
- UN withdrawal
The Result:




Success
End of civil war
Start-up of a solid democracy
Reconciliation
Richard Holbrooke
The Crisis:

Nineties: implosion of former
Yugoslavia, 1995: civil war in
Bosnia-Herzegovina
The Crisis Management:


Shuttle diplomacy
Cohercitive diplomacy
The Result:

Success: end of war (Dayton
agreement)

Failure: Agreement stops war,
doesn’t establish peace
Ariel Sharon
‫אריאל שרון‬
The Crisis:

Between XX, XXI century: wave of
suicide attacks in Israel
The Crisis Management:

Building of the Wall
The Result:

Success (attacks reduced to zero)
Viktor Chernomyrdin
Виктор Черномырдин
The Crisis:

Hostages kidnapping at
Budyonnovsk hospital
The Crisis Management:
Debatable negotiation with
terrorists
 Special Forces not well trained

The Result:

Failure
Slobodan Milošević
Слободан Милошевић
The Crisis:

Kosovo crisis, 1998-1999
The Crisis Management:
Refusal by Milosevic of
international proposals (OSCE
mission headed by Felipe Gonzales,
withdrawal od Serbian Special
Forces from Kosovo)
 23 Apr. 1998, referendum: is
Kosovo an internal or foreign case?
(98%: internal!)

The Result:
Failure
 Rambouillet talks without outcome
 NATO attack
 Consequence: independence of
Kosovo

Vladimir Vladimirovic Putin
Влади́мир Влади́мирович Пу́тин
The Crisis:

2000: Sinking of Kursk submarine
The Crisis Management:
Lack of interest (he remains on
leave)
 Poor respect for human life
 Keeping the secret in any case
 Refusal of external specialized help
(Norwegian team)

The Result:

Failure, tragedy
Zoran Đinđić
Зоран Ђинђић
The Crisis:

Threat to the life of Serbian Prime Minister
The Crisis Management:
Underevaluation of the threat
 Approximate personal security

The Result:



Failure (Prime Minister assassinated)
Success (new pro-Western policy, economic
reforms, fight against ciminality,
Milosevic’s capture)
Milosevic rendered to ICC
Pajwak
George W. Bush
The Crisis:

Al Qaeda attack against the Twin Towers
and the Pentagon, 11 September 2001
The Crisis Management:

Though measures against
terrorism
The Result:
Domestic policy: success (national
cohesion)
 Foreign policy: failure (decadeslong campaigns in Iraq,
Afghanistan, wave of antiAmericanism)

Vladimir Vladimirovic Putin
Влади́мир Влади́мирович Пу́тин
The Crisis:

2002: Terrorist attack against the
“Dubrovka” theater
The Crisis Management:
Strong resolve
 Strong, brutal measures (gas
employed against everybody:
terrorists and innocent people)

The Result:

“Success”
Gerhard Fritz Kurt Schroeder
The Crisis:

2002: Flood in the Western German regions
The Crisis Management:

Political cynicism, opportunism (during the
electoral campaign, a picture of him in the
middle of the mud permits him to gain a
certain percentage)
The Result:
Success (Schroeder wins the
elections)
 Consequence: Germany (2003)
doesn’t intervene in Iraqi crisis,
Europe divided

Lewis Paul “Jerry” Bremer III
The Crisis:

Iraqi reconstruction, 2003
The Crisis Management:
Ignorance of the local situation
 Ignorance of previous lessons
learned (Germany, Japan)
 Disbandment of Iraqi Armi
 Disbandment of the Ba’ath Party

The Result:
Failure
 CPA: Cannot Provide Anything
 Today’s Iraq is not a safer place

Jose Maria Alfredo Aznar Lopez
The Crisis:

Atocha Station terrorist attack,
Madrid 2004
The Crisis Management:
Willingness of politically exploiting
attacks
 Attempt to blame ETA (political
elections)

The Result:



Failure
Aznar’s Party loses the elections
Consequence: the new Prime Minister
(Zapatero) withdraws Spanish military
units from Iraq
Vladimir Vladimirovic Putin
Влади́мир Влади́мирович Пу́тин
The Crisis:

2004: terrorist attack against the
school of Beslan
The Crisis Management:


Strong mesures
Brutal repression
The Result:
Success
 All terrorists killed

George W. Bush
The Crisis:

2005: hurricanes Kathrina, Rita
The Crisis Management:
Poor resources (National Guard,
materials, resources employed in
Iraq)
 Wrong management, incorrect
forecast: “Rita will pass over
Houston”.

The Result:
Failure
 Houston evacuation, disorders, 100
victims… and Rita never passed
over Houston.

Barak H. Obama
The Crisis:

Deepwater Horizon disaster, oil
spill in the Gulf of Mexico
The Crisis Management:

Subjection to the oil companies
The Result:
Failure
 Environmental disaster

Sohiala
Nicholas Sarkozy
The Crisis:

2011: Libyan crisis
The crisis management:
Media campaign stressing the
casus belli (popular uprising,
brutal government’s repression)
 Lessons learned of Suez 1956: USA
must be involved

The result
Success
 More prestige for France in the
Mediterranean
 More Libyan energy resources for
France (at the expenses of Italy)

Bashar al-Assad
The crisis:

Civil war in Syria
The crisis management:
Strongpoints of the regime:
 Reliance on regime’s supporters
(Iran, Russia, Hezbollah…)
 Russia’s support in exchange of a
naval base
 Western weakness (Obama: reset
with Russia)

The result?



Success? (no international consensus about
military option)
Re-election next 3 June? (no opposition,
elections organized by the regime, 1/3 of
population: displaced…)
Chemical weapons to be destroyed by 30
June? (85% not enough, possibility to use
hidden stocks in order to blame opposition)
VIPs and
Crisis Management
Giovanni Marizza
[email protected]
26 May 2014, 15.00 – 19.00
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