Differing Ideas about
Population Growth
Divergent ideas about
population growth
There are both optimistic and pessimistic
views on population growth:
1.
Cornucopian (Optimistic)
2. Bogue (Optimistic)
3. Malthus (Pessimistic)
4. Catton (Pessimistic)
Optimistic Views…

General agreement that large families and
growing population are highly desirable

Such opinions have been expressed by
religious leaders because large families
theoretically contribute more adherents
(supporters, believers) to the faith

Large number of adherents make religion
both socially and politically powerful
1. Cornucopians

Many people have faith in the human ability to find
technological innovation that will produce increases
in Earths carrying capacity
◦ People who believe this are called cornucopian’s

They would point to agricultural and industrial
revolution, which led to unprecedented (never done
before) increase in world population

Cornucopians would suggest the nature of the next
revolution is IMPOSSIBLE to predict

They would say that the next revolution would have
to solve the most serious threats we face

Ex: Cornucopian's believe that breakthroughs in
energy production, like these wind turbine generators,
could support a much larger population
Bogue

D.J Bogue described what he called the theory of
demographic regulation

By this, he meant that, over an extended period
of time, a society naturally limits its own
population

The population will grow only in response to
Earths ability to support it

This theory appears to be supported by the
demographic transition model
In developed
countries- Sweden-,
the population has
already naturally
limited itself
Whereas countries
such as Mexico, the
population is still
continuing
Pessimistic Views…

Although most people throughout history have been optimistic
about every-increasing population levels, there have been
critics of this optimism
◦ Since the population levels have exploded in recent decades

Pessimistic critics have basically made the same point:
◦ Earth is of finite size and has an ability to support only a
certain level of population
◦ They feel ultimately, we will reach a point where the
size of the population will be unsustainable because it
exceeds that worlds ability to support it
Malthus

Anything described as Malthusian or neo Malthusian (neo
means something is new, recent) is pessimistic about
population growth

People who share Malthus views are called neo- Malthusians

He theorized that population would grow

Food production cannot be increased as rapidly as
population can grow
◦ in a geometric sequence (1, 2, 4, 8, 16)
◦ while food could only increase arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4)
◦ NOT A SUSTAINABLE situation

The only possible result would be the onset of “misery”
which included famine, disease and warfare, all of which
produce a terrible collapse of population and suffering for
millions
Example
African nations experiencing a food crisis are a
living example of Malthus theory.
Globe & Mail reports: “UN call for developing countries to put
more emphasis on agricultural production- less on
providing food assistance in emergencies (which will not
provide a sustainable solution)
Catton

He introduced the concept of Earths carrying capacity,
which he states can be exceeded only at the expense of
environmental damage
◦ Closely related to ecological footprint

Catton suggests Earths population has been exceeding its
carrying capacity for many years

This excess has been possible because we are using up the
worlds fixed stock of non renewable resources

Sooner or later our economic and ecological systems must
collapse

When this occurs we will find the true carrying capacity has
been diminished because so much of our non renewable
resources is gone
Example
The immense population and standard of living require us to
burn the oil and coal that our descendents will need.
= Phantom Carrying Capacity
Suzuki Test Tube

http://interactive.nfb.ca/#/testtube
Population Explosion

The final stage of demographic transition model is know as posttransition

In post- transition, a country’s birth rates equals or may even
fall below its death rate

Population then stabilizes or declines

Countries shift into post transition as they experience the benefits
of economic and social growth

This growth is responsible for the completion of demographic
transition in counties as varied as Canada, Sweden, Singapore
◦ But what happens if a country does not achieve the level of
economic and social development that leads to post
transition?
Too Many People: The
Demographic Trap

Some experts think that some nations of the developed and
developing regions may not reach post transition

They fear that these developing countries may fall into a situation
known as the demographic trap
◦ Situation where these countries continue to experience a high birth rate
instead of the declining birth rate of the late transition stage

Increasing population places great demands on the country for an
increased food supply and for all kinds of services, medical,
educational services

If the countries birth rate continues, the population explosion will
continue to happen until a Malthusian collapse becomes inevitable
◦ This collapse would occur because the population had grown to the point where it
exceeded the carrying capacity for the country
Overpopulation
Overpopulation

Each year, India’s population grows by an amount almost
equal to the population on Ontario and Quebec combined

This means, annually, the Indian economy must provide food,
housing, healthcare, education and everything else that 10
mill more people need

China is experiencing a similar situation- its population is
growing annually by 7 million, an amount equal to the
population of Quebec.

The demands of these growing populations
will exceed their countries carrying capacity
◦ This = OVERPOPULATION!