The Population-Resource
Debate
IB Geography I
Resources (defined)
• Any aspect of the environment that can be
used to meet human needs.
– They can be classified as either natural or
human
Resource Tree Diagram
Natural
Resources
Human
Resources
People
Finite
Resources/Nonrenewable
Finance
Buildings
Infinite
Resources or
Renewable
Resources
Infrastructure
Natural Resources
• Naturally occurring substances such as oil,
forests and fish- which are considered to
have value by human populations.
– They can be classified as either renewable
and non-renewable
Flow Renewable Resources
• Renewable resources that do not need
regeneration. They are in constant supply.
– These include: solar, wind and tidal power.
Resource Depletion
• The consumption of non-renewable
resources which will eventually lead to the
exhaustion of the resource.
– This can occur very quickly
Opening Activity
• If living the lifestyle we are accustomed to
right now (food, car, house,
stuff…RESOURCES) meant a large group
of people would have to die, how would
we (as a world) decide who dies?
• In the quest to maintain resources, is it
okay to wish catastrophe upon millions?
Or billions?
Theories on the
relationship between
population and
resources
Thomas Malthus
• 1766-1834. Born in the UK
• Wrote ‘An essay in the First
Principle of population’ first
published in 1798:
• He was the first person to introduce the
idea of a population ceiling or a carrying
capacity of the environment.
• The world population in 1798
was at 790 million people. We
have now passed the 7 billion
mark.
• Malthus was writing in the late 1700’s, so
we need to consider the norms back then
when analyzing his ideas:
– food supplies were uncertain due to bad
weather and disease
– Mostly agrarian society with limited
technology.
– Malthus could never have foreseen the
technological advances of science like
herbicides, pesticides, fertilizers, cross
breeding techniques, genetic engineering and
the mechanization of the agricultural
business.
Malthus recognized that population if
unchecked, grows at a geometric rate:
1
24
8 16
32
However, food only increases at an
arithmetic rate, as land is finite.
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Malthusian Catastrophe
War,
famine,
disease.
Negative checks/Preventative Checks
(decreased birth rate)
• Negative Checks were used to limit the
population growth. It included abstinence/
postponement of marriage which lowered
the fertility rate, or possibly anti-natalist
policies.
• Malthus favored moral restraint (including
late marriage and sexual abstinence) as a
check on population growth.
• However, it is worth noting that Malthus
proposed this only for the working and poor
classes!
Positive checks
(increased death rate)
• Positive Checks were ways to
reduce population size by events
such as famine, disease, war increasing the mortality rate and
reducing life expectancy.
Optimum Population
The highest average living standard marks
the optimum population
The economic optimum (the level of
population which, through the production
of goods and services, provides the
highest standard of living)
Before that population is reached the
country is underpopulated, and after it is
reached it is overpopulated
Population Pressure
• When population exceeds carrying
capacity for a given area
The Population Resource
Debate
Neo-Malthusians
• This is an idea of thought that follows
Malthus’ ideas.
• Those who fear that population growth will
outstrip resources leading to the
consequences predicted by Thomas
Malthus.
The Club of Rome
(Neo Malthusian)
The club was made up of
experts from many
disciplines, including
mathematicians, scientists,
economists, industrialists and
geographers.
In 1972 the Club of Rome
published their findings which
essentially predicted what
Malthus warned of in 1798.
Their work was called the
“Limits to Growth Model.”
Limits to Growth Model
Resources
High
Population
Pollution
Food
Industrial Output
Low
1900
2100
The Club of Rome – basic
conclusion….
• If present growth trends in world population
continue and if associated industrialization,
pollution, food production and resource
depletion continue unchanged, the limits to
growth on this planet will be reached
sometime in the next 100 years.(2070)
• The most probable result will be sudden
and uncontrollable decline in both
population and industrial capacity
Paul Ehrlich
• In 1968 a prominent biologist by the
name of Paul Ehrlich published a
book called The Population Bomb.
• Ehrlich predicted that the 1970’s
would usher in an era of famine and
starvation-all based on 1950’s
problems in LEDC’s
• Ehrlich believed that all resources
were finite.
• Shortly after Ehrlich’s writing the Club
of Rome was formed.
Ehrlich (Neo Malthusian)
• In it he warned of doom and gloom resource depletion, species extinction and a
human population so large that as a
species we would face mass poverty,
famine, starvation and death.
• According to Ehrlich, the Earth had reached
its carrying capacity long ago and we were
living on borrowed time.
Carrying Capacity (again)
• The maximum number of people that may
live in or visit a destination at the same
time, without causing destruction of the
physical, economic, socio-cultural
environment and an unacceptable
decrease in the quality of the living
environment.
Carrying Capacity Criticism
• The main criticism is that population and
technology constantly change so the
carrying capacity may change.
• A country's carrying capacity may change
because:
–
–
–
–
–
New resources are discovered or resources run out
New technology like solar panels or desalination are introduced
New transport links are built
New sources of water are found or new crops engineered
Natural disasters damage infrastructure and resources
Carrying Capacity can be
divided into different sections:
• Ecological/Environmental: The extent that an
environment can tolerate a population
• Economic: the amount of people an economy
can support in terms of jobs
• Perceptual/Social: this relates to the negative
social effects related to its population size
• Physical: the actual number of people a place
can actually hold due to its size
Malthus and the Club of
Rome – are they right?
What evidence is there
to support their ideas?
Video: Overpopulation, the Making
of a Myth
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=p
layer_embedded&v=vZVOU5bfHrM
Esther Boserup 1965
• Boserup was optimistic and believed
that people have resources of
knowledge and technology and that
“necessity is the mother of invention”,
thus as populations grow towards the
carrying capacity they develop new
ways to use resources (food) more
productively.
• Can you think of real life examples?
Thus…….
• Demographic pressure (population
density) promotes innovation and
higher productivity in use of land
(irrigation, weeding, crop
intensification, better seeds) and
labour (tools, better techniques).
Population and
resource
relationship after
Boserup
Was Boserup Right?
What about resource degradation
and pollution? Can we continue to
innovate to overcome these issues?
The debate goes on…….
Julian Simon
• Julian Simon, a University of Maryland
economist, has written several books on
population most famously The Ultimate
Resource.
• Simon thought that all of the doom and
gloom of Ehrlich was nothing but nonsense.
He claimed that resources are infinite in the
sense that human beings will never run out
of them for whatever purpose they decide to
use them for.
• Essentially, Simon considered humans to be
the “ultimate resource”
Neo Malthusian v Anti Malthusian
The 2 sides
• Neo-Malthusian
• The Club of Rome,
Paul Ehrlich
•
•
•
•
Modern day Advocates of
Thomas Malthus
Pessimistic view
The idea that the Earth
has a carrying capacity
Initial views that the world
had difficulty feeding itself,
but today pollution and
climate are the
challenges
• Anti-Malthusian
• Esther Boserup and
Julian Simon
• Optimistic views
• Technology and
Resource
Substitution
constantly revises
the carrying capacity
Arguments for Neo-Malthusians
• The stead global decline in the area of farmland per
person
• The steep rise in the cost of many food products in
recent years
• The growing scarcity of fish in many parts of the world
• The already apparent impact of climate change on
agriculture in some world regions
• The switchover of large areas of land from food
production to the production of biofuels, helping to create
a food crisis in order to reduce the energy crisis
Arguments for Anti-Malthusians
• Resource optimists highlight a number of
continuing advances including:
– The development of new resources
– The replacement of less efficient with more
efficient resources
– The rapid development of green technology
with increasing research and development
– Important advances in agricultural research
– Stabilizing levels of consumption in some
developed countries
Key Point
Demand for resources and the resulting waste
and pollution depends on 3 factors.
Population - How many people are there?
Consumption – How much does each person
consume?
Intensity – How efficiently do we use resources?
Are we heading for catastrophe?
Can we keep going the way we have
been - the business as usual
approach - and rely on tech and
markets and creativity?
Or is a radically different world view
required?
Key Question
(Neo-Malthusian Doomsters)
believe that rapid population
growth and increased levels of
development have led to a
situation where there are
insufficient resources and too
much waste and pollution.
(Anti-Malthusian Boomsters)
champion the ability of humans to
innovate, develop and adapt, as the
solution to the issues associated with
population growth, resource
consumption and waste.
Where do you stand on this continuum?
Vote with your feet!!
Key Question
(Neo-Malthusian Doomsters)
believe that rapid population
growth and increased levels of
development have led to a
situation where there are
insufficient resources and too
much waste and pollution.
(Anti-Malthusian Boomsters)
champion the ability of humans to
innovate, develop and adapt, as the
solution to the issues associated with
population growth, resource
consumption and waste.
What policies or ideas would you propose for
population management, consumption, waste
and pollution, resource intensity and resource
conservation?
Past Exam Questions within this
topic
• Explain the anti-Malthusian view of the
relationship between population and resources.
• Describe what is meant by a Neo-Malthusian
view?
• Explain the views of Neo-Malthusians.
• Why are today’s Neo-Malthusians concerned
with the relationship between population size
and resource consumption?
• Explain the opposing views of the NeoMalthusians and Anti-Malthusians.