Engineering Project Management Eng R. L. Nkumbwa™ www.nkumbwa.weebly.com © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 1 Outline PM in today’s environment rapid change BPR The project plan Management & communications Organizational, people, political issues Stakeholders Tools & methodologies © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 2 New Business Environment Change – at ever faster pace Globalization/Internet Intense Competition BPR leading to Downsizing, flattening Team approach, empowerment E-Commerce, outsourcing © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 3 Change Business Change Projects Project Management (PM) © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 4 Project Characteristics Defined goal Primary sponsor or customer Set of activities Unique, complex, sequenced Start & finish Temporary, time frame for completion Limited resources Dollars, people Uncertainty, risk © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 5 Ongoing Activities Have opposite characteristics to projects Similar, often identical products or services No defined end Staffing & management practices geared to above © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 6 What is Project Management? PM is the application of knowledge, skills, tools and techniques to project activities in order to meet project requirements. (PMI) PM is an art. is a science. has a set of tools and methods. © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 7 Three Disciplines © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 8 Project Dynamics: The Triple Constraints Cost Time Scope Quality Resources © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 9 Scope Creep (Wysocki) Scope creep any change not in original plan IT particularly prone to creep major challenge for PMs Hope creep will catch up next week Effort creep 95-99% complete Feature creep team member adds features © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 10 Traditional Project Management PM practiced (not by name) for millennia PERT/CPM tools developed in 1950s Focus on time, budget, specs Gantt charts, Pert/CPM s-shaped budget curves resource matrices Customers an afterthought Project managers’ domain limited implementers © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 11 New Project Management Need to enhance traditional PM to: become more customer focused utilize new tools & softer skills empower/select project managers decision making profit-loss responsibilities entrepreneurial approach business know-how © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 12 PMI PMBOK Project management Body of Knowledge © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 13 Effective Project Managers Lead by example Visionaries Technically competent Decisive Good communicators © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. Good motivators Stand up to execs when necessary Support team members Encourage new ideas Zimmerman & Yasin 1998 14 Effective Project Managers Alternate View Leaders (also managers, administrators) Communicators Goal oriented Problem solvers Innovators Work well under pressure (able to laugh) Technically competent, respected, aware Know company & its business © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 15 Project Manager Traits Systems approach Analytical skills Ability to zoom forest versus trees big picture versus details Firm yet flexible “Velvet covered brick” © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 16 Project Life Cycle -- Phases © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 17 Project Management Process Groups © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 18 Project Life Cycle (Frame) Concept Planning Execution Closeout Operation Maintenance © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 19 PM Life Cycle (Wysocki) Five Phases 1. Scope project 2. Develop project plan 3. Launch plan 4. Monitor/control project project 5. Close out project © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 20 Why Projects Succeed User involvement Exec management support unequivocal sponsorship Clear understanding & statement of requirements Effective planning Realistic expectations Standish Group survey of IT execs © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 21 Building Bridges versus Software Why do bridge projects usually succeed? Why do software projects usually fail? on time within budget meet expectations © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 22 Successful Projects Depends on your point of view Execs, users & project team view success differently Is project successful if meets stated goals, schedule & budget? Does project result in tangible, cost effective business improvement for users? © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 23 Success as perceived by Execs Real business asset Cost controlled (low) Objectives achieved Not oversold Not over-committed Well managed effective controls, milestones achieved © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 24 Success as perceived by Project Team Execs & users happy with results Management committed & supportive Necessary resources available enough, adequate Managed changes effectively Schedule realistic Gained experience © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 25 Project Discipline Definition: act of encouraging desired pattern of behavior the glue that holds it all together project manager, team, organization Implementing discipline set realistic goals obtain commitments track progress against plans enforce commitments Whitten © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 26 Key Concepts (Verzuh) PM – emerging career track PM – art informed by science Challenges of PM personnel, estimating, budgeting, authority, controls, communication PM is industry independent, project managers aren’t © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 27 Key Concepts (Verzuh) Continued Managing Expectations (later session) No damage can’t keep giving 120% order ulcer medication Surviving organizational structure authority, communications, priority, focus, chain of command © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 28 Quotes from Verzuh Primary responsibility of project manager to lead customers, management, vendors and encourage them to work together during the project. Success may demand every technique in this book Project manager is catalyst Energy & attitude give the power © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 29 Silver Bullets Organizations & their execs have problems They look to projects to solve them Too many have silver bullet expectations of projects They fail to address the root causes of their problems © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 30 Success or Failure? “BIG I” Successful? Well planned? Clear accountability? Did things go wrong? Effective communications? Carrot & stick? © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. “BCMDC” Fiasco? Planned or happened? Anyone accountable? Anyone fired? Frank’s plumbing? One disaster after another? Who cares? 31 Overview Delighting customers Needs to requirements Organizational issues Stakeholders Politics (revisited) Getting the project off the ground Scope the Project Project Charter (Verzuh) Project Overview Statement (Wysocki) © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 32 Delighting Customers Delight – not just satisfy Knowing who they are, what they want, when they are right & wrong Obsession with customer satisfaction is part of the new project management Nothing obvious/trivial about identifying customers © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 33 Delighting Customers (cont.) “High-value organizations are in business of selling solutions, not hardware, and customer satisfaction achieved through partnering between buyers & sellers” (Frame) © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 34 Meeting Customer Expectations Product/service usable Promises kept competent/gracious service needs understood & addressed effectively © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 35 Customers= Needs/Requirements Must work tirelessly to understand them It’s a translation process twixt ill-defined languages © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 36 Customers= Needs/Requirements Needs analyst traits: strong ability to deal with customers political skills technically competent open-minded & imaginative high tolerance for ambiguity articulate Technicians tend to produce Mercedes not the Hyundai that=s wanted © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 37 Bridging Customer-Developer Gap Partner with customers (stakeholders) Use “Joint” techniques: Joint Project Planning (JPP) Joint Application Development (JAD) If fail to get needs/requirements right both sides at fault Communications barriers cultural, vocabulary, medium, feedback Tips: be up front, cautious (Murphy’s Law), realistic, clear, don’t jump to solutions, communicate/educate © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 38 Improving Needs Definition Understand present system in full context Identify multiple customers, prioritize their needs Needs defining task force involving customers Educate customers in rudiments of project management must realize it=s an exercise in compromise multiple customers, conflicting needs, budget & schedule constraints © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 39 Needs Analysis Organizational Key Areas of Analysis Present System © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. Functional Requirements 40 Organizational Issues You are PM not CEO/COO Yet you need organization’s commitment, so: focus org. culture on customer value (culture change!) unbridled change so organize into short, achievable deliverables improve processes for customer delight strengthen project staff capabilities, e.g. business & nontechnical skills © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 41 Changing Corporate Culture BPR (project oriented) not TQM (process oriented), so: Focus on value Encourage upside-down thinking Power sharing Long term view Total customer focus © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 42 Business Reengineering & Quality Management Business Quality Improvement Definition Target Potential Payback Risk What Changes? Primary Enablers Business Reengineering Incrementally Improving Existing Processes Radically Redesigning Business Systems Any Process Strategic Business Processes 10%-50% Improvements 10-Fold Improvements Low High Same Jobs - More Efficient Big Job Cuts; New Jobs; Major Job Redesign IT and Work Simplification IT and Organizational Redesign © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 43 Organizational Commitment Organization committed to PM: organization has project management system defining processes & practices system disseminated to employees via education & training Management instills the discipline necessary to ensure system followed system is living document not collecting dust © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 44 Customers Dont Cooperate Common complaint from PMs: customers not behaving responsibly “customer” not monolith prime cause organizational politics Educate customers, educate, educate emphasize contractual obligations meeting key milestones establish steering committee © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 45 Stakeholder Concept In projects stakeholders are the movers & shakers Stakeholder roles Customers/users Sponsor(s) Line (functional) management Project manager Project team Anyone/everyone else with a stake Verzuh © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 46 Stakeholders First identify all stakeholders Must delight not just customers, but also stakeholders This is tough! Customers, management, project team must all agree on project goals Project manager must coordinate, guide, lead this diverse group through the project stages © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 47 Politics Revisited “Politics is the art of influence” DON’T accept things at face value, be insensitive to politics, be hyper-political Action guide positive attitude to politics develop base of authority get a grasp of political environment action plan © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 48 Politics Revisited Building authority formal (from position) technical/expert authority charisma purse string (rewards) bureaucracy old boy network . . . etc. Support of “power players” © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 49 Project Teams Traditional teams full time members co-located easy to develop esprit de corps Today’s teams part-timers not assigned for duration virtual environment tough to build effective teams, demands ingenuity © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 50 Getting Project off the Ground Remember project success demands goals agreed by all stakeholders control of scope management support PROJECT CHARTER brief, high level document formally establishing project understood & signed by all key stakeholders © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 51 Project Charter Establishes rules of game What project includes, what it doesn’t (boundaries) Goals, constraints, success criteria Negotiate Formally agree Note Statement of Work (SOW) NOT usual usage of term © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 52 Establish Initiate Charter establishes project Next must compete with other projects for scarce resources Prioritize – go or no go? Go ahead Begin Analysis Phase needs requirements detailed SOW © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 53 Wysocki: Scope the Project Wysocki’s equivalent of the Charter: Project Overview Statement (POS) About one page, but attachments: risk & financial analyses approval by project mgr & core team (?) Joint Project Planning (JPP) session Project Definition Statement (PDS) next stage considerably more detail © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 54 POS Components 1. 2. Problem/opportunity factual statement accepted by organization Goal (one goal) gives purpose & direction what will be done defines final deliverable/outcome SMART specific, measurable, assignable, realistic, time frame © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 55 POS Components 3. 4. Objectives 1. outcome 2. time frame 3. measure 4. action Success criteria • why do we want to do project? • measurable business value • sells project to execs © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 56 POS Components 5. Assumptions, risks, obstacles • what can go wrong? • alert management to factors that may interfere/compromise • specific, brief © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 57 Politics Politics: control of outcomes via control of people. Use political tools in conjunction with product-oriented tools Use of political tools NOT inherently bad Ignoring politics can result in unnecessary losing outcomes © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 58 Politics vs Product Product Ethics product/service provided to customer function-quality-service Success if meets specs, on time, under budget © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. Politics perception of what we provided perception-expectation success defined by positive surprises 59 Perceptions & Expectations Customers have preconceived perceptions & expectations Perhaps unrealistic, in hope of solving major problems These perceptions/expectations are reality to them If discrepancy, surprise will occur © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 60 First Law of Politics Rule #1: surprise will always happen Rule #2: managing surprises is key to customer satisfaction First Law Perception – Expectation = Surprise Perception: view of product/service actually observed Expectation: view what should be able to do © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 61 Reality is a Myth Imagined Map Truth . . what you believe . . . . subjective © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. Real Territory Fact . . . . what is true . . . objective reality 62 Second Law of Politics Second Law: Perception = Reality Doesn’t matter what you do, only what people think you do As many truths (realities) as there are people; no-one better than any other © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 63 Third Law of Politics There are trade-offs twixt wants and needs Also gap twixt wants/needs can create negative surprise later hence poor customer satisfaction Third Law Wants – Needs = Surprise © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 64 Fourth Law of Politics Fourth Law Perception today = Expectation tomorrow This is law of political momentum More effort required as time goes on to create positive surprises © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 65 Political Definition of Success Notes: Success exists in minds of customers Success varies over time Our task is to control surprises This takes precedence over product/services © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 66 Equation for Success Success = Sum of surprises as perceived by all customers over time i=n Success = ( ∑ S i ) t i=1 n = # of customers t = time © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 67 Equation for Success II i=n Success = (∑ s i w i ) t i=1 w = weight associated with each customer © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 68 Political Credibility Every person/organizational component has a stack of political “chips” There is “price” when we try to control an outcome If we don’t have enough chips at the time we fail to control So vital to maintain sufficient pile of chips © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 69 Political Credibility Chips go away when we spend in political process we create negative surprises & they evaporate over time We gain chips when we create positive surprises we “join” & via our business/technical abilities © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 70 Attaining Political Credibility Establish mission what products/services we provide Identify customers functional (direct) political (indirect) Survey customers what expectations/perceptions exist? criteria for measuring them? triggers for them? © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 71 Attainment (continued) Survey customers (cont.) customer wants/needs? contradictions twixt them? wall erected? Establish vehicles “For each customer, what vehicle exists to control expectations/perceptions in the criteria for that user?” © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 72 Leverage Techniques Leverage to be effective must apply political credibility at right point this is principle of leverage target chips toward specific “owners” (we may be credible with one person not another) not enough to have chips, we must have them in right place at right time © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 73 Leverage Techniques Leverage principles target chips to be where & when needed Identify winners/losers; winners work for you; losers against Use someone else’s chips; get one of winners to attempt control © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 74 Persuasion Common mistake among technicians assume sufficient evidence/logical argument will convince people that reason & logic rule the day But best idea backed by credible evidence won’t fly unless those controlling outcome agree to it We must sway the decision/outcome © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 75 Persuasion Process Define decision we want List every major player who can affect decision people, groups, organizations i.e. the stakeholders Assess position of each player -- for or against power of each player priority each player places on outcome © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 76 Persuasion Process (cont.) What can we do to cause the power, position, priority of each player to change so the outcome we want will occur? © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 77 Persuasion (cont.) Person Power Position Priority Score A B C 4 2 1 4 -5 0 1 5 2 16 -50 0 (assign value, 1-5, 5 high) © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 78 Summary Technical Competence is Insufficient Embrace Politics © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 79 Remember Verzuh’s Five Essential Success Factors Agreement on Goals Plan clearly indicating what and who Constant, effective Communication Controlled Scope Management support © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 80 Overview Selecting Projects Risk Management Work Breakdown Structure Realistic Estimating Scheduling Methods Gantt, CPM, PERT Time Boxes & Critical Chain © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 81 Selecting Projects In most organizations projects must compete for priority, dollars, resources Financial Models detailed financial analysis cost–benefit ratios © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 82 Selecting Projects (cont.) Martin Buss “How to Select Projects” Harvard Business Review 1983 Small project selection team grids with criteria, high-medium-low criteria generally financial, technical, enhancing core competencies, organizational fit against costs review proposals, then quick collective judgment © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 83 Buss’s Grid Approach Grid A Low Medium High High Medium Financial Benefits © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. Low 84 Risk – Risk – Risk Life is full of uncertainty, i.e. Risk Projects are inherently & especially risk prone Insurance companies are risk managers Re projects: Murphy was an optimist if it can go wrong, it will As project managers: We must apply systematic risk management techniques throughout project They are part of our toolkit (PMBOK) © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 85 Risk Management Software Engineering Institute (SEI) perspective: URLs http://www.sei.cmu.edu/programs/sepm/risk/risk.mgmt.overview.html http://www.sei.cmu.edu/programs/sepm/risk/principles.html Risk management must be continuous thru life of project Risk & opportunity go hand in hand © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 86 SEI on Risk "Risk in itself is not bad; risk is essential to progress, and failure is often a key part of learning. But we must learn to balance the possible negative consequences of risk against the potential benefits of its associated opportunity." © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 87 Sources of Project Risk General sources environmental (largely uncontrollable) external, e.g. government regulations internal, e.g. new division VP technical market financial people © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 88 Sources of Project Risk (cont.) What goes wrong with projects in your environment? Standish top five success factors user involvement, management support, requirements greed/understood, planning, realistic expectations Verzuh top five agreed goals, planning, communication, controlled scope, management support © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 89 Verzuh on Risk Management Selecting right project is business risk; managing uncertainty is project risk Identifying risks – involve stakeholders Risk Profiles: questionnaire addressing expected project risk areas Guidelines: industry & organization specific address both product & mgt risks gauge magnitude of risk – high/medium/low © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 90 Verzuh (cont.) Dealing with risk (make a decision) Accept – understanding risks, consequences, probabilities, react if happens Avoid – change scope to avoid, accept “low risk– low return” Monitor – contingency plans ready, e.g. at DIA back-up baggage handling Transfer – contract, outsource, insure (but remember win— win) Mitigate – work hard to reduce risk © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 91 Top 10 Risk Item Tracking Tool for maintaining awareness of risk throughout life of a project Establish periodic review of the 10 project risk items List current/previous ranking, number of times the risk appears on list over time, summary of progress made in resolving each risk item © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 92 Top 10 Risk Item Tracking Example Monthly Ranking Risk Item This Last Month Month Inadequate planning 1 2 4 Working on revising the entire project plan Poor definition of scope 2 3 3 Holding meetings with project customer and sponsor to clarify scope Absence of leadership 3 1 2 Just assigned a new project manager to lead the project after old one quit Poor cost estimates 4 4 3 Revising cost estimates Poor time estimates 5 5 3 Revising schedule estimates © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. Number Risk Resolution of Months Progress 93 Expert Judgment Many organizations rely on intuitive feelings & past experience of experts to help identify potential project risks Experts categorize risks as high, medium, low with or without more sophisticated techniques © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 94 Results of Effective Project Risk Management Unlike crisis management, good project risk management often goes unnoticed Well-run projects appear almost effortless, but a lot of work goes into running a project well Project managers should strive to make their jobs look easy to reflect the results of well-run projects Duck on water – smooth on top, but underneath paddling like hell to keep afloat © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 95 Estimating “Project best understood by breaking it down into its parts” Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) powerful tool for doing this (not just a task list) defines the total scope of the project fundamental to much of project planning & tracking © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 96 WBS Start at top, progressively break work down (tree structure) into work packages Roll up the packages for bottom up estimating Packages give clear work assignments For chart form of a WBS see Verzuh page 103 For outline (list) form see Verzuh page 104 © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 97 Realistic Estimating Lots of reasons for poor estimates inexperience, technical problems, changes optimists, lowballing, politics Bottom-up cost estimating rollup the WBS packages Top-down or Parametric estimating from experience to complex models © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 98 Realistic Estimating (cont.) Which technique is better? ideally use both early on don’t have WBS so must use top-down accuracy of top-down depends on availability/quality of historical data building complete WBS can be expensive but guesses can be even more costly © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 99 Developing Project Schedule Base documents Project charter – start/end dates, budget Scope statement & WBS -- what will be done Activity definitions develop more detailed WBS plus supporting explanations to understand all work to be done © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 100 Scheduling Tools & Methods Gantt Charts Critical Path Method (CPM) Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) Time Boxes Critical Chain (Theory of Constraints) © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 101 Activity Sequencing Review activities; determine dependencies Mandatory dependencies: inherent in the nature of the work; hard logic Discretionary: defined by the project team; soft logic External: involve relationships between project and external activities Must determine dependencies to use critical path analysis © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 102 Gantt Charts Created 1800 Standard format for displaying project schedules activities, durations, start/end finish dates displayed in calendar format Advantages enforces planning easy to create & understand preferred for summary/exec-level information Bar chart: simplified version © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 103 Sample Project Gantt Chart © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 104 Sample Tracking Gantt Chart white diamond: slipped milestone © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. two bars: planned and actual times 105 Critical Path Method (CPM) Developed 1957 CPM diagram shows: activities, durations, start/end dates & sequence in which they must be completed Critical path for project: series of activities that determines earliest time by which project can be completed Critical path is longest path through network diagram has least (zero) slack or float © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 106 CPM (cont.) Critical path helps you make schedule trade-offs Slack or float : amount of time activity can be delayed without delaying early start of dependent activities © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 107 Simple Example of Determining Critical Path consider following network diagram assume all times in days C=2 start 1 A=2 2 B=5 4 E=1 3 6 D=7 5 finish F=2 a. How many paths are on this network diagram? b. How long is each path? c. Which is the critical path? d. What is the shortest amount of time needed to complete this project? © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 108 PERT Developed 1959 for Polaris project Similar to CPM but addresses uncertainties in task durations Uses probabilistic time estimates – optimistic, most likely, pessimistic estimates of activity durations Hence reduces Risks associated with estimating © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 109 PERT Formula and Example PERT weighted average formula: optimistic time + 4X most likely time + pessimistic time 6 Example: PERT weighted average = 8 workdays + 4 X 10 workdays + 24 workdays 6 = 12 days where 8 = optimistic time, 10 = most likely time, and 24 = pessimistic time © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 110 Selecting Scheduling Approach Consider project size, risk and complexity Gantt senior management smaller, less complex projects CPM medium size/complexity/risk PERT high risk projects medium to high complexity © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 111 Time Box Scheduling Deals with delivering in short time frames Focuses on prioritization Facilitator brings stakeholders together to agree on priorities It’s customer–developer partnering win-win Compromise on scope to achieve early delivery © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 112 Critical Chain Scheduling Addresses challenge of meeting or beating project finish dates Application of the Theory of Constraints (TOC) Developed by Eliyahu Goldratt in his books The Goal & Critical Chain Method of scheduling that takes limited resources into account when creating project schedule & includes buffers to protect completion date Assumes resources do not multitask as it often delays task completions & increases total durations © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 113 Critical Chain (cont.) Simple view: in critical situation, don’t try to strengthen all of the links in the chain focus on the weakest link Some organizations view as best thing since sliced bread But does it sound like common sense? © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 114 Break then Case Discussion Risk Management case Guest Diane Luther (Ventana Group) © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 115 Embracing & Managing Change Change will happen Are we prepared to deal with it? blurred visions rubber baselines fluctuating priorities All contribute to: Scope creep schedule slippages cost overruns customer dissatisfaction © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 116 Sources of Change Changing players Folks change their minds Budget instability Technology keeps changing Changing competitive environment The economy © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 117 Change Management Strategies Develop pro-change mind-set only 16 % Promethean “If it ain=t broke, don=t fix it@ in revolutionary times, traditionalists crushed beneath tidal wave of change innovation often comes from outside Learn how/when to Ago with the flow@ And when to resist change © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 118 Developing Pro-Change Mindset Through education & training Upside-down thinking, in order to thrive in turbulent times Think multiple customers & stakeholders, not just one Use crises to change traditional attitudes & focus on new ways of doing things © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 119 Configuration Management (CM) Resist change via bureaucracy Change control via CM Rigorously screen changes formal process for assessing merit major or minor impact? if major goes to Change Control Board (CCB) document changes update baseline © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 120 Written change proposal Change Control Process Rework proposal CCB Review Accepted for impact study Rework Rejected stop proposal deigned, documented, implementation schedule Rework Rework proposal CCB reviews Accepted in product Rejected stop Proposal implemented © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 121 Change Management (Harris) * Accept all written change proposals Project team assesses impact cost, staff, schedule Change team* reviews value, importance (politically weighted) triage add to scope, phase II, phase III Key stakeholders, project manager © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 122 Project Communication Failure to communicate effectively often greatest threat to project success Communication is oil that keeps project running smoothly Stakeholders who needs to know what, when (how often) & how? constant, effective communication among everyone involved in project formal, informal, written, verbal © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 123 Communications (cont.) Need formal communications plan plus informal supplementation as required Integrated with overall project plan Conflict is endemic to project, need skills to manage confrontation (aka problem solving mode)* compromise smoothing forcing withdrawal (least desirable in projects) * project management is all about solving problems quickly & effectively © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 124 Communications (cont.) Make assignments crystal clear Running meetings effectively is key skill Individual status meetings spend regular, quality time with each team member Kick-off meeting (see Verzuh) need clear, decisive start © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 125 Effective Meetings (Verzuh) Five rules agenda in advance begin/end on time pass on information come to decision stay on track Draw people out avoid long meetings (one hour if practical) for each agenda item everyone should come prepared silence not necessarily consent Record decisions & action assignments keep on top of resulting action list © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 126 Project Progress Monitoring, Tracking, Controlling, Managing How does a project get to be six months late? Control versus Risk control – track progress, detect variances in plan, take corrective action Balance risk & control © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 127 Monitor & Control Progress reports current period, cumulative, exception, variance Level of detail activity manager – detailed, granular project manager – all open activities senior management – graphical, exception, milestones use WBS charts Graphical reports – Gantt, milestone charts © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 128 Problem Tracking & Management Daily – project manager tracks progress against schedule & problems Successful problem management identify before happen or at least at first symptoms put recovery plans in place – don’t delay Problem management process identify & determine criticality (80-20)* assign an owner document recovery plan Monitor progress, daily if critical * prioritize © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 129 Measuring Work Performance PM “jokes” last 10% of project takes 50% of the work projects stuck at 90% for months Problem not sudden insurmountable obstacles – it’s inaccurate measurement Percentage of work completed too open to subjectivity Cost & schedule are 2/3 of cost, schedule, quality equilibrium, so we measure them © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 130 Integrated Cost & Schedule Control Graphical approach Compare actual against planned /projected costs ($) Problems but $ spent don’t indicate actual work completed Accounting information often lags Hence Earned Value approach determine value of work completed © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 131 Earned Value Chart for Project (After Five Months) © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 132 Earned Value Approach Developed in 1960s for large defense projects; now used in smaller projects 50-50 rule assumes task 50% complete when started, 100% when completed Compare earned value to planned costs Collecting data large projects employ cost account managers for smaller projects, use 50-50 rule, take advantage of milestones, or can guess using experience Limitations of earned value availability of accurate, timely data educational; need organizational understanding © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 133 Outsourcing Control costs Focus on core work Expand resources Underlying rationale economic bigger no long better replaced by lean and mean focus on core activities with outside resources to cover auxiliary goods/services © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 134 Outsourcing (cont) Outsourcing is part of project manager’s toolkit contracting skills essential motivating staff who don=t work directly for you strongest motivator is opportunity for self growth Outsource all or major part of project “Don’t underestimate risks of outsourcing” © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 135 Outsourcing (cont) Contracts Fixed-price contracts, OK for routine implementations, not for high risk development Cost-plus contracts, contractor paid costs plus a fee (profit), variations to reduce excessive expenditure Cost-plus-fixed-fee, fee independent of costs, attractive to contractors in high risk projects cost-plus-incentive-fee, carrot and stick, incentive to keep down costs cost-plus-award-fee, award pool & level of award by committee © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 136 Contracting Process Source selection, competitive bid, sole source, informal selection RFP provides bidders with format for proposal for software projects usual to include comprehensive Statement of Work (SOW) RFP for major project can be project in & of itself Evaluating bids establish evaluation criteria, (cost only one factor) best & final offer from short-listed bidders © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 137 Contracting Process (cont) Contract negotiations rights, penalties, payment schedule, fee structure, schedule of deliveries Post-award monitoring, regular say monthly reviews, attention to cost & schedules variances, milestones, need change control process Acceptance & handover customer determines if terms & conditions of contract met differences rooted in interpretation problems often due to parties not having resolved different perspectives, others to dynamic nature of projects © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 138 Joint Project Planning (JJP) Variety of joint planning processes JPP (Wysocki chapter 11) Structured session facilitator essential key stakeholder involved Objective clear & simple develop project plan; negotiated between requestors & providers © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 139 PM Policies & Practices Consistent policies & practices throughout organization SEI: consistent approach to managing project 75% cost reduction over different practices for each project consistent management practices essential development practices can vary © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 140 PM Policies & Practices One policy does not fit all projects Different practices for different types of projects, e.g. small, medium, large small, internal, external practices for above should become progressively more rigorous © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 141 Project Support Office Support is operative word Develops, documents, promotes PM policies & practices Admin support (paperwork) Consulting, mentoring on planning etc. Organizational PM awareness, training Verzuh © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 142 Project Support Office (cont.) Support unit to project managers PM standards Manage communications Admin support Provide training Mentoring role Facilitate deployment (of PM staff) Wysocki © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 143 Organization Wide Today many project-based enterprises PM policies & practices not just for active project participants Increase PM competencies throughout organization management, employees, contractors Spectrum of PM training Everyone should comprehend fundamentals © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 144 Cultural Change Process change relies cultural change Not an easy task due to people issues Takes years rather than months Project support office staff should be evangelists Boeing: Experiment, learn from users what adds value & what does not . . . © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 145 Project Closure “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” George Santayana © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 146 Project Closure Too often avoidance rather than effective closure; recall Six Phases of a Project 1) Enthusiasm 2) Disillusionment 3) PANIC 4) Search for Guilty 5) Punishment of Innocent 6) Praise & Honors for Non-Participants © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 147 Effective Closure Ensure all deliverables installed including documentation Stakeholder acceptance of deliverables Post-implementation review/audit Celebrate success © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 148 Document The Project Project review & evaluation Final Deliverable – evaluation document Summary of project history project successes Failures/problems Compare estimates to actual reasons/observations on differences What should we learn? Do and not do next project © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 149 Post-Implementation Audit Evaluate project’s achievements against plan budget, deadlines, specifications, quality of deliverables, client satisfaction Six questions: 1. Project goal achieved? 2. On time, within budget & per specs? 3. Client (stakeholder) satisfied? 4. Business value realized? 5. PM lessons learned? 6. What worked, what didn’t? © 2010 Nkumbwa™. All Rights Reserved. 150