Bringing manufacturing Jobs Back Home To Offshore or Reshore? How to Objectively Decide SMA Harry Moser President Reshoring Initiative Definitions Reshoring/Backshoring/Onshoring/Insourcing: Bringing back manufacture of products that will be sold or assembled here. Producing near the consumer! Geographic sourcing alternatives Flawed company economic model 60% of manufacturers: Apply “rudimentary” total cost models Wage Arbitrage PPV (Purchase Price Variance) Landed Cost Ignore 20% or more of the total cost of offshored products Source: Archstone Consulting survey, American Machinist Mag., 7/16/09 “Manufacturing Is Expected to Return to America” “Renaissance in Manufacturing” “We expect net labor costs for manufacturing in China and the U.S. to converge by around 2015” “take a hard look at the total costs” Source: Boston Consulting Group press release 5/11 & 4/12 Chinese no longer “just thankful not to go hungry.” Source: Michelle D. Loyalka, 2/17/12 NYT The Industry-Led Initiative Provides Free Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) Software for companies and suppliers Online Library of 400+ reshoring articles Case Study template for posting cases. Media coverage of the trend: WSJ, Fox Business, USA Today, IW, CBS, CNBC, etc. ~100 presentations/year nationwide Motivation for skilled manufacturing careers Solutions to major supply chain problems TCO Estimator benefits Provides a single TCO for each source Flexible: values are 100% user selected. Broad: Easy to use: 29 cost factors. Via pull down menus you automatically insert: Freight rates for 17 countries Duty rates for parts or tools, e.g. molds Current value and 5 year forecast of TCO. Explanations and references to help select values. Free TCO Comparison Example Even Landed Cost Misses a lot of TCO Source: TCO user 2012 database 27 cases China vs. U.S: Median values Some Reshorers Water-heaters Bringing Production back from China: Water-heater production Unionized facility in Louisville, KY 400 jobs, renovated facility Reasons: Tax incentives High-tech new model Ease of design collaboration with workers: cut cost $20 2 tier contract Chinese cost: -30% becomes +6% considering inventory and delivery problems Will move a “significant piece” of appliance production back Reshoring is happening! 34% of larger companies surveyed “are considering bringing manufacturing back to the U.S.” (MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation 2012) 40% of contract manufacturers have done reshoring work this year (MFG.com 4/12) % of U.S. consumers who view products Made in America very favorably: 78% (2012) up from 58% (2010) (AAM June 28-July 2, 2012) More likely to buy U.S. product 76% Less likely to buy Chinese product 57% (Perception Research Services Intl. survey 7/12, 1400 consumers) 50,000 Manufacturing Jobs since Jan 2010! Reshoring yielded: About 50,000 manufacturing jobs* ~ 10% of manufacturing job growth since the Jan. 2010 low ~ 100,000 total, including multiplier effect * Source of estimate: Reshoring Initiative tabulation of jobs listed in 287 Reshoring Library articles, 85% published since Jan 2010 BCG’s Tipping Point Industries Computers and electronics Appliances/electrical equipment Machinery Furniture Plastics and rubber Fabricated metals Transportation goods U.S. Manufacturing Nears the Tipping Point, Boston Consulting Group Industries of published cases Industry Number Elec. equip, appliances & components Transportation equipment Computer and electronics Machinery Miscellaneous Plastics and rubber Fabricated metal parts Furniture Clothing and textiles Food and beverage Primary metals, food and beverage Library, July 2012 Source: Reshoring Library, March 2013 46 34 25 21 19 16 16 12 4 4 2 each Reasons for reported cases REASON Wage and Currency Changes Quality, Warranty, Rework Freight Cost Delivery Travel Cost/Time or Local Onsite Inventory Intellectual Property Loss or Risk Total Cost Communications Image/Brand (prefer US) Difficulty of Innovation/Product Differentiation Loss of Customer Responsiveness Price Natural Disaster Risk Green Considerations Government Incentives Burden on Staff, Political Instability, Personnel Risk, Regulatory Compliance Reshoring Library 3/13 # of CASES CITED 72 51 44 43 38 26 25 22 20 17 10 9 7 6 4 4 3 each 61% of reshoring cases are from China Country from which reshored China Mexico Japan Number 105 21 12 India Taiwan Canada, Spain Germany, Malaysia, Philippines 8 5 3 each 2 each 1 each Brazil, El Salvador, Indonesia, Hungary, Singapore, UK, Venezuela, Guatemala, Singapore, Malaysia Source: Reshoring Library 3/16/13 Potential for reshored jobs is huge! Scenario Source of Scenario Today: If all Reshoring companies used TCO Initiative By 2015: If Chinese BCG wage trends continue Mfg. Jobs* ~500,000 Total Jobs** 1,000,000 1,000,000 2,000,000 Better U.S. training, ~AMP 2,000,000 process improvement, (Advanced automation, tax rates Mfg. Partnership) End of offshore Most mfg. 3,000,000 currency manipulation trade groups 4,000,000 6,000,000 * # of jobs is cumulative. ** Assumes a low 1.0 Multiplier Effect. Gaining support in Washington, DC Commerce Dept: 2012 budget specifies TCO. Links: http://nist.gov/mep/reshoring.cfm http://business.usa.gov/program/reshoring-initiative http://www.manufacturing.gov/other_orgs.html Major new site: http://acetool.commerce.gov/ 6 rounds of free MEP webinars, next 6/12/13 Testified at Congressional hearing on 3/28/12 Working actively with SelectUSA Calls from: United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission White House National Economic Council 1/11/12 Insourcing Forum But how do apprenticeships and credentials pay? What can you do? Use the tools. Free at www.reshorenow.org Reshore. Help your customers reshore Use our archived webinars to inform staff and customers Call on me to speak at: open houses, webinars, customer industry conferences Post a link like http://www.presflex.com/american-made/ Submit cases of customer reshoring to promote your company and steel Help me find a big U.S. “poster company.” Investment By understanding: Your U.S. customers can: the advantage of producing near the consumer, and the small TCO gap instead of the large price gap justify domestic investment, process improvement, automation, training, etc. And do not have to sacrifice quality, delivery, time-to-market, or employees to be competitive and profitable. A not-for-profit with 47 sponsors Platinum Gold Gold Gold G Silver Silver A not-for-profit with 47 sponsors Bronze BronzeB ronzeBro nze SteeelSStSteeleel Steel Iron Iron Help slow the offshoring flood now! Contact: Harry Moser Founder and President 847-726-2975 harry.moser@reshorenow.org www.reshorenow.org Recruiting trainees for the skilled manufacturing workforce: http://tinyurl.com/33vpz9k