Article written by
Ray Kurzweil

st
• Started with John Kay’s invention of flying shuttle, 1733
• James Watt’s steam engine (1769) should be mentioned
• Characteristics: Mechanization.
• Impact on industry: shifted from cottage industry with craft to mass production with machine tools.

‘Products’ of 1 st Industrial
Revolution
• Steam engine;
• Internal combustion engine;
• Electricity, and its use: -
• Train, automobile, airplane, ocean vessel;
• Bulldozer, excavator;
• Refrigerator, air-conditioner;
• Skyscraper;
• Weapon; -

1 st Industrial Revolution: a two-edge sword?
• So many benefits and advantages it has brought to us.
• Any negativity?

• Founded in 1811.
• Central issue: Workers’ job security threatened by mechanization and automation.
• Automation vs. job has been a ‘pain’ issue in the process of industrial revolution, even up to now.

• Technological progress eliminates some current jobs.
• Does new tech create more new jobs than those displaced?
• Do the new jobs pay more of less than the older ones?
• What about the workers who are displaced?

st
• In 1870, 31% of Americans, or 12 millions, had jobs
• In 1985, 48% of Americans, or 116 millions, had jobs.

• GNP per capita was $530 in 1870, and
$3,500 in 1970 (in 1958 dollars), which increase 6 times.
• Percent of American workforce that involved in food production:
In 1900, 34%;
In 1990, only 3%.

nd
• It is now in progress.
• It is led and inspired by computers.
• It extends and multiplies our mental abilities, comparing to the 1 st industrial revolution that extends and multiplies our physical capabilities.

‘Products’ of 2 nd Industrial
Revolution
• Computers (PCs, …)
• Internet
• Cell phones
• CD, DVD, MP3, digital camera, …
• GPS
• Gene engineering
• Embedded in most modern machines

• Humans are increasingly relying on machines whose intelligence may be as flawed as our own.
• Technology can be, and is already, a powerful ally of the totalitarians and terrorists. – This danger is real, not
‘potential’.

• Computers use almost no natural resources.
• Value of a ‘high tech’ product lies primarily in the ‘knowledge’ (rather than materials) it contains.

• The value of knowledge and technology reflects the cost of research and development (R&D) of the product’s hardware and software, as well as the cost to maintain the ability of continuing to advance and further the R&D.

• The power of computer technology (the ratio of speed over cost) has doubled every 18 to 24 months.
• This is called the Moore’s Law.

A Unprecedented Challenge to
Our Superiority of Intelligence
• The 1 st industrial revolution has helped human become superior in physical capability.
• The 2 nd industrial revolution is helping machines achieve intelligence, which may become superior in mental capability on top of us.
• Is our intelligence unique and insuperable?

• It is the earth that circles the sun, rather than the sun circles our earth.
• Nicolaus Copernicus, Polish, 1473 – 1543, published his theory in book <On the
Revolutions of Heavenly Spheres> in
1543.

• Machines that are getting smarter are a sword of two edges. It is looming large no matter whether we like it or not.
• It cannot be stopped.
• We need to comprehend it, live with it, harness it constructively, and turn threats into challenges.

How Far Can 2 nd Revolution Go?
• The machines of 1 st revolution have over performed our muscles.
• Do you think the machines of 2 nd revolution will over perform our brains?

• Comparing to the 1 st one, the 2 nd industrial revolution is a continued process which will last long and whose impacts on human beings are divergent, boundless, and beyond estimation.

• “
While the first industrial revolution increased the demand for and the value of natural resources, the second industrial revolution is doing the opposite
.”
(Bottom of page 8, paragraph 18)
• Do you agree? Why or why not?