The Skills Mismatch:
the biggest problem facing the next Government
Lord Baker of Dorking CH
Sunday Times Festival of Education, Wellington College
20th June 2014
We know the problem:
In 2013, the top two shortages for jobs
worldwide were for skilled trades workers and
engineers.
Global Talent Shortage Survey, Manpower Group
The economy is changing
250
Net growth in job numbers, 2010-20 (thousands)
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
Science,
Science,
Skilled
engineering and engineering and agriculture L3
technology
technology
professionals
technicians
(Level 4)
Skilled metal,
electrical,
electronics L3
Skilled
construction L3
1000
An even bigger story: the baby
boomers are retiring
800
600
400
200
0
-200
Replacement
demand
(Thousands)
Huge numbers of people will be
needed by 2020
• Between 2012 and 2020, we need –
– 830,000 SET professionals (degree level)
– 450,000 SET technicians (levels 3 and 4)
• SET = science, engineering and technology
• Figures include growth + replacement demand (mainly to
replace baby boomers planning to retire)
UNIVERSITIES
But supply won’t meet demand
• Demand for science, engineering and
technology graduates: 104,000 per year
between 2012 and 2020
• Number of new graduates taking UK jobs
in SET occupations: 64,000 per year
• Shortfall: 40,000 graduates per
year
Higher education has grown
rapidly – but not in all subjects
% Increase in first degrees 2002-12
Humanities
Business/admin
Creative arts/design
Physical sciences
Engineering/technology
Computer science
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percentage of graduates in non-graduate jobs 30 months after
graduating, by class of degree
Purcell K, Elias P, Atfield G, Behle H, Ellison R and Luchinskaya D (2013), Futuretrack: Transitions into Employment,
Further Study and Other Outcomes. Manchester: Higher Education Careers Services Unit
Employment in retail, catering, waiting and bar jobs six months
after completing a first degree in 2012
Area of study
Fine Arts
Media Studies
Performing Arts
Design
Sociology
Physical and
Geographical Sciences
History
English
Biology
Law
Psychology
Geography
Percentage of
graduates
in work who had
retail, catering,
waiting and bar jobs
29.0
26.7
23.5
23.1
22.7
22.1
21.1
21.4
20.8
19.8
18.9
18.8
Sports Science
Marketing
Politics
Languages
All employed graduates
Business and Management
Studies
Chemistry
Finance and Accountancy
Computer Science and IT
Maths
Physics
Electrical and Electronic
Engineering
Economics
Architecture and Building
Mechanical Engineering
Civil Engineering
17.4
15.9
15.4
15.2
13.7
13.7
13.1
11.3
10.5
9.3
9.0
8.8
7.9
7.9
5.6
4.7
AGCAS and HECSU (2013), What Do Graduates Do?
http://www.hecsu.ac.uk/assets/assets/documents/WDGD_Sept_2013.pdf
SCHOOLS
Over the last 20 years, there has been
a steady erosion of laboratory skills
taught in school science.
Gatsby Charitable Foundation
The development of D & T in the UK
has seen a move away from a skillsfocused curriculum to a knowledgefocused one.
Mike Martin and Gwyneth Owen-Jackson:
Is design and technology about making or knowing?
Design and Technology GCSE: only one
student in three takes a high-tech option
16%
26%
Resistant materials
2%
4%
Food technology
Graphic products
Textiles technology
Electronic products
13%
Systems and control
21%
18%
Other
GCSE Design and Technology Entries, 2013
But Design and Technology GCSE is
taken by only one student in three
2013 entries
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Took any GCSE
Took D&T
Therefore the proportion of all
students taking high-tech options is…
• Resistant Materials:
• Electronic Products:
• Systems and Control:
8.4%
1.4%
0.6%
FURTHER EDUCATION
• In Austria, technical and vocational
education starts at 14.
• In England, most technical and vocational
education starts at 16 – two years behind.
Other countries value vocational
education more highly …
% young people on vocational courses
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Hungary
UK
Denmark
Germany Netherlands
Austria
…and have lower youth unemployment
% of under 25s who are unemployed
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Hungary
UK
Denmark
Germany
Netherlands
Austria
The connection is obvious
100
80
60
40
20
0
% young people
on vocational
courses
% youth
unemployment
Number of 16-24s
starting
apprenticeships in
2011/12
% change since
2010/11
Business, admin and the law
80,320
14.5%
Retail and commercial enterprise
63,670
7.6%
Health, public services and care
49,910
10.5%
Engineering and manufacturing
38,100
6.8%
Percentage of each age group participating in
apprenticeships at the end of 2012
We need new specialist
institutions
“Smaller specialist units, including
University Technical Colleges,
should be created with stronger links
to business, commerce and industry.”
Sir Michael Wilshaw, Her Majesty’s Chief Inspector
Unseen Children, speech, 20 June 2013
New pathways:
University Technical Colleges
The 50
approved
UTCs
Some employers partnering
with UTCs
Universities partnering
with UTCs
New pathways:
Career Colleges
Career Colleges
• Established by further education colleges subjects
linked to labour market – hospitality, catering,
tourism, financial science, digital graphic art.
• Employers:
• partners in designing and delivering the curriculum
• 40% of career college board members
• Progression to apprenticeships, higher education and
employment
• Two pioneering Career Colleges opening in September
2014 in Bootle and Oldham.
New institutions will make a
huge difference – but they
are not enough on their own.
Every school should have a
link with engineering and
manufacturing.
My recommendations
• Get in touch with your local school. Don’t take “no”
for an answer.
• Rally behind a smaller number of big initiatives in
schools.
• Support teachers, especially in Design and
Technology.
• Get a 3D printer into every school.
A FINAL THOUGHT
A target for all schools:
So support UTCs!