Managing a Portfolio of Projects – A Playbook for Success Research Team 303 Implementation Session 2014 CII Annual Conference July 21–23 • Indianapolis, Indiana RT 303 – Team Members • Baabak Ashuri, Georgia Tech • John Logan, Irving Oil, Ltd. • Rob Bailey, Fluor Corporation • Sandra MacGillivray, Coreworx • Scott Bergoon, Hargrove Engineers + Constructors • Reza Masoumi, Northeastern University • Fred Delie, Georgia-Pacific, LLC • Charlie O’Hanlon, Architect of the Capitol • James Dyer, WorleyParsons • Marie Robinson, Jacobs • Mohamed El-Mehalawi, Faithful+Gould • Mohsen Shahandashti, Georgia Tech • Roger Haynes, ConocoPhillips • Shaun Tatum, Southern Company • Roger Holtzclaw, BP • Ali Touran, Northeastern University • Vincent Huang, Parsons • Davy Wilson, BP • Rick Ikasalo, SABIC • Tim Wolf, Anheuser-Busch InBev • Gary Lanier, URS Corporation • Edward Minchin, University of Florida Implementation Session Team Moderator Gary Lanier, URS Corporation Panel Baabak Ashuri, Georgia Tech Rick Ikasalo, SABIC James Dyer, WorleyParsons Vincent Huang, Parsons Roger Holtzclaw, BP Portfolio management Playbook Essential Question What practices, techniques, processes and technology are most effective for managing a portfolio of projects? What is a Portfolio of Projects? A group of related or unrelated projects and/or programs managed by a single individual - the portfolio manager Portfolio Formation Strategies Owners • Budget control • Aid in project selection and prioritization Contractors • Align with client requirements • Align with client processes What is a Portfolio of Projects? A group of related or unrelated projects and/or programs managed by a single individual - the portfolio manager Research Objectives • Understand the portfolio management problem, including its main differences with management of individual projects; • Identify and analyze techniques, technology, tools, metrics and processes recommended for portfolio management; and • Recommend practices to help improve overall portfolio management through a well-defined process that is repeatable across portfolios. Research - Methodology Collect Data • Industry Survey • Interviews • Case Studies Analyze Data • Identify Business Drivers • Identify Recommended Practices Develop Tool • Portfolio Management Playbook Research - Survey Research - Survey • Breakdown of portfolio sizes Research - Survey • Breakdown of portfolio budget ranges Research - Survey • Breakdown of portfolio project durations Research - Survey • How successful is Portfolio management in firms? Research - Survey • Areas where firms need to improve metrics Research – Interviews and Case Studies Interviews • Selection of 15 Interview Organizations – Interview questionnaires Case Studies • Selection of 6 Case Studies http://todaycut.com/ Playbook Formation Interviews Case Studies Survey Playbook Playbook Validation Survey “Overall the product is very good and beneficial.” • Industry Experts • Owners & Contractors 3 Questions “The guidebook contains a significant amount of valuable information.” • How useful is each section? • How useful is overall Playbook? • Suggested areas for further research? Feedback • All sections were considered useful by a majority • Limited “new” info for advanced firms • Performance & Risk Management, Case Study Playbook Overview Formation Strategies Portfolio Manager Role Grouping Portfolio Performance Key Results Areas Attributes Portfolio Practices Resource Risk Financial KPIs Lessons Learned Authority Change Prioritizing Career Path Dashboard Appendix FEP Case Study: A System Example Role of the Portfolio Manager Portfolio Manager Role Attributes Attributes • • • • • Interpersonal skills Communication Setting priorities Lead and manage teams Understanding business objectives Training • • • • • Leadership and Management Project Management Time Management Financial Management Risk Management Authority Career Path Role of the Portfolio Manager Common Career Path Project Engineer Project Manager Portfolio Manager Technical – Leadership – Management – Communications Recommended Process for Portfolio Performance Management 1. Determine Key Results Areas Portfolio Performance Key Results Areas KPIs Dashboard 4. Evaluating the Portfolio Performance Management Process 2. Establish Key Performance Indicators 3. Collecting Data and Reporting Results Recommended Process for Portfolio Performance Management Key Results Areas (KRAs): • Schedule • Cost / Cash Flow • Safety and Environment • Change Management/ Scope • Quality • Resource Allocation • Risk Management • Procurement and Supply-Chain Management • Client Satisfaction Recommended Process for Portfolio Performance Management Schedule – Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) include: • Number / Percent of Milestones Completed (or Missed) vs. Planned • Number / Percent of Projects on (or behind) Schedule • Total / Average Days ahead of (or behind) Schedule • Schedule Durations Compared to Benchmarks • Number / Percent of Projects with Schedule Durations Longer (or Shorter) than Benchmarks Recommended Process for Portfolio Performance Management Data Collection and Evaluation • Portfolio Manager will need to establish the data collection process • Common format for collecting data – Software solutions (spreadsheets, databases, Enterprise Systems) • Data interpretation trends and comparison • Report or dashboard – Traffic lights – Scalability – Audience Recommended Process for Portfolio Performance Management Monitoring and Controlling • Process periodically evaluated to ensure Stakeholder requirements are met – Minor adjustments may be necessary to produce more meaningful results – Wholesale changes may be required for major changes such as new or different business drivers Portfolio Practices Recommended Practices • Six areas identified, – Resource Management – Risk Management Resource Portfolio management Playbook – Financial Management Risk Financial Lessons Learned Change FEP – Lessons Learned – Change Management – Front End Planning • Existing practices and techniques at the project but not portfolio level Recommended Practice – Resource Management • “Sharing” – workforce, schedule, budget, procurement strategy • Majority of data related to workforce • Recommendations – Resource planning and ongoing forecasting process – Allow portfolio manager appropriate resource allocation authority – Develop metrics to measure resource management performance – Consider use of appropriate software Recommended Practice – Risk Management • Individual project risks can impact other projects • Most of the project risk management techniques can be applied at the portfolio level • Recommendations – Consistent portfolio risk practice – Portfolio level risk breakdown structure (RBS) – Identify portfolio risk manager – Perform risk assessment at portfolio level Recommended Practice – Risk Management Recommended Practice – Financial Management • Roll up budgets and report at the portfolio level • Activity planning process • Contingency and cash flow • Recommendations – Portfolio budget allocation authority – Contingency at the portfolio level if possible – Manage Cash Flow at the portfolio level – Develop cost performance metrics and dashboards Recommended Practice – Lessons Learned • Successful companies use formal lessons learned process • Lesson learned from projects should be integrated into portfolio management process • Recommendations – Systematic collection of project lessons learned – Analysis of lessons learned – Implementation of lessons learned documentation and communication – Identify lessons learned champion Recommended Practice – Change Management • Common among all companies but lack of consistency • Project changes can create chain reaction on other projects • Recommendations – Consistent procedure and process – Opportunity to automate the process – Introduce change metrics for measurement – Inter-project impact analysis on changes Recommended Practice – Front End Planning • One of the most widely used CII best practices – Front end planning toolkit – PDRI – Alignment thermometer • Recommendations – Rely on front end planning tools during portfolio formation – Standardization of the front end planning process – Benchmark front end planning metrics across the portfolio Playbook Appendix: Example – Portfolio Management in Action • Owner organization • Multiple portfolios – total value of several billion dollars • Assumes KRAs determined & KPIs established • Portfolios formed based on geographical regions Playbook Appendix: Example – Portfolio Management in Action Key Components Necessary for Effective Portfolio Management Analytics, Reporting Data Collection and Management Standardized Processes and Tools Standards and Guidelines Playbook Appendix: Example – Portfolio Management in Action An effective portfolio performance management strategy: • Ensures portfolios align with the organization’s strategic direction • Enables benchmarking of performance • Supports continuous improvement in project and portfolio delivery • Allows for development of best practices for portfolio performance management Playbook Appendix: Example – Portfolio Management in Action Data Collection and Management: • Single, robust database • Shared website – portal and single access point • Project level – performance trends • Portfolio level – resource management and portfolio performance Playbook Appendix: Project Dashboard Executive summary Project Dashboard Individual Project Portfolio Mgr: Project Title: Date: Project Mgr: Jake Ackerman Dominic Parker Stage 1 BW Gas Separation End of Sep-2013 Executive Summary Project Scope Several existing and new Shippers of high Gas/Oil Ratio (GOR) crude have requested increased firm capacity in the Pipeline system. The project will deliver an additional 1460tpd of Natural Gas Liquid (NGL) capacity at the revised composition. The business objective is to increase the onshore facility handling capacity to attract new business to the system. The project will generate significant tariff and trading account receipts in the Onshore Facility and enables production in other assets. Current options/solutions are to implement a number of modifications and upgrades to enable the increased NGL processing capacity. Key Updates this Period Planned 80% Actual 78.1% 25,000 manhours of direct manhours were achieved in September, equivalent to 1/3 of all remaining direct manhours on the project. Mechanical Completion has excedded 50% overall with 76 Priority 1 Mechanical Completion Certificates remaining and anticipated to be closed within the next period. Planned 85.3% Actual 80.9% Plant 2 critical tie-in completed and Plant 1 tie-in constructed. Major Items in the Plan for Next Month Complete Plant 2 Outage 2013 Complete Cooling Water pipework hydrotest. Complete Crude Post Weld Heat Treatment and Hydrotest. Complete Gland / Term of power / instruments cabling. Last Instrument to be Installed Complete installation of Crude (Dehydrator) pipework. Complete installation of Fire & Gas and Flow Transmitter's. Areas of Concern/Opportunities Complete Plant 2 Outage 2013 Complete Cooling Water pipework hydrotest. Complete Crude Post Weld Heat Treatment and Hydrotest. Complete Gland / Term of power / instruments cabling. Last Instrument to be Installed Complete installation of Crude (Dehydrator) pipework. Complete installation of Fire & Gas and Flow Transmitter's. Cost Performance Schedule (Current Year) Cost ($K) $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 Jan-13 Feb-13 $6,000 Baseline Forecast ###### $7,077,898 $5,000 ###### $5,766,911 Actual/Reforecast $4,000 Cumulative Baseline Forecast ###### ########### Cumulative Actual/Reforcast ###### ########### $3,000 $2,000 Jan-13 Feb-13 $K $1,000 Actual Forecast ###### $0 $7,078 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 ###### Apr-13 ###### Jun-13 Jul-13 ###### ###### ###### ###### $4,802,387 ### ##### $2,774,500 ###### ###### ###### Oct-13 ###### ###### $50,000 $40,000 $5,963,629 ### ##### $3,536,030 ###### ###### ###### ###### ###### ###### ###### ###### ###### ###### ###### $45,706,480 ### ##### ########### ###### ###### ###### ###### ###### ###### $50,488,549 ### ##### ########### ###### ###### ###### Apr-13 ###### Jun-13 Jul-13 ###### ###### ###### ###### Jan-13 ###### Feb-13###### Mar-13 $5,767 ###### Apr-13 ###### Actual/Reforecast ###### ### ##### $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 ### ##### #### ###### ###### $4,802 ### ##### #### ###### ###### May-13 $5,964 Jun-13 ### Jul-13 Aug-13 ##### #### ######Sep-13 ###### Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 $0 Cumulative Baseline Forecast ###### $14,156 ###### ######Mar-13 ###### ###### Jan-13 Feb-13 Apr-13 $45,706 Jun-13 ### ##### Jul-13 #### ###### ###### May-13 Aug-13 Baseline Forecast Cumulative Actual/Reforcast ###### $6,557 $50,489 $6,557 ### ##### $4,802 #### ######$4,802 ###### Sep-13 $4,802 Oct-13 $2,775 Nov-13 $2,775 Dec-13 $2,775 Actual/Reforecast $7,078 $7,078 $6,557 $15,095 ###### ######$7,078 ###### ###### $9,328 $5,767 $5,132 $9,168 $6,308 $3,609 $3,536 $2,127 $3,423 Cumulative Baseline Forecast $7,078 $14,156 $21,234 $27,790 $34,347 $40,904 $45,706 $50,509 $55,311 $58,086 $60,860 $63,635 Cumulative Actual/Reforecast $9,328 $15,095 $20,227 $29,395 $35,703 $44,525 $50,489 $56,094 $59,703 $63,239 $65,366 $68,789 $8,822 $5,964 $5,606 Original Budget $224,278,397 Current Budget $229,690,000 Estimated Variance Completion Cost -2.41% $224,278,397 Current Month (Sep-2013) Spend ($) Planned $4,802,387 Actual $3,608,800 -24.85% Variance End of Year Spend ($) Planned $63,634,753 Forecast $68,789,168 8.10% Variance Schedule Performance Project Schedule Project Stage Cost Planned vs Actual/Reforecast Cost Stage 1 Stage 1 (BaseLine) Stage 2 Stage 2 (BaseLine) Stage 3 Stage 3 (BaseLine) Stage 4 Stage 4 (BaseLine) Detailed Design Detailed Design (BaseLine) Procurement Procurement (BaseLine) Construction Construction (BaseLine) Outage TAR (BaseLine) Commissioning Commissioning (BaseLine) 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 Time Frame (Months) Project Stages Stage Start End 1. Appraise Sep-12 Jan-14 2. Select Jan-14 Apr-15 3. Define May-15 Jan-16 4. Execute Feb-16 Sep-18 Key Events / Deliverables Concept Selection Oct-14 Define Plan Approval Apr-15 Exec Plan Approval Jan-16 Pre-S/U HSE Review Jun-18 Commissioning Aug-18 Schedule Durations (Mths) Stage Base Line Forecast 1. Appraise 9 16 2. Select 12 15 3. Define 9 9 FEL 30 40 4. Execute 42 32 Overall 72 72 Schedule Variation 33.26% FEL -23.88% Execution 0.00% Overall Complete Cooling Water pipework hydrotest. Complete Crude Post Weld Heat Treatment and Hydrotest. Complete Gland / Term of power / instruments cabling. Last Instrument to be Installed Complete installation of Crude (Dehydrator) pipework. Complete installation of Fire & Gas and Flow Transmitter's. Playbook Appendix: Project Dashboard Cost Performance Planned vs Actual/Reforecast Cost (Current Year) Cost ($K) $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 Jan-13 Feb-13 ###### Apr-13 ###### Jun-13 $6,000 Baseline Forecast ###### $7,077,898 ###### ###### ###### ###### $5,000 ###### $5,766,911 ###### ###### ###### ###### Actual/Reforecast $4,000 Cumulative Baseline Forecast ###### ########### ###### ###### ###### ###### Cumulative Actual/Reforcast ###### ########### ###### ###### ###### ###### $3,000 $2,000 Jan-13 Feb-13 ###### Apr-13 ###### Jun-13 $K $1,000 Actual Forecast ###### $0 $7,078 ###### ###### ###### ###### Actual/Reforecast ###### Cumulative Baseline Forecast ###### Baseline Forecast Cumulative Actual/Reforcast ###### Actual/Reforecast $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 Jul-13 ### ##### Oct-13 ###### ###### $40,000 $5,963,629 ### ##### $3,536,030 ###### ###### ###### $30,000 $45,706,480 ### ##### ########### ###### ###### $50,488,549 ### ##### ########### ###### ###### Jul-13 $20,000 $10,000 ### ##### #### ###### ###### $4,802 ### ##### #### ###### ###### Jan-13 ###### Feb-13###### Mar-13 Jun-13 ### Jul-13 Aug-13 $5,767 ###### Apr-13 ###### May-13 $5,964 ##### #### ######Sep-13 ###### Oct-13 $14,156 ###### ######Mar-13 ###### ###### Jan-13 Feb-13 Apr-13 $7,078 $7,078 $6,557 $15,095 ###### ######$7,078 ###### ###### $9,328 $5,767 $5,132 $9,168 $50,000 $4,802,387 ### ##### $2,774,500 ###### ###### ###### Nov-13 Dec-13 $0 $45,706 Jun-13 ### ##### Jul-13 #### ######Aug-13 ###### Sep-13 May-13 $6,557 $50,489 $6,557 ### ##### $4,802 #### ######$4,802 ###### $4,802 Oct-13 $2,775 Nov-13 $2,775 Dec-13 $2,775 $6,308 $3,536 $2,127 $3,423 $8,822 $5,964 $5,606 $3,609 Cumulative Baseline Forecast $7,078 $14,156 $21,234 $27,790 $34,347 $40,904 $45,706 $50,509 $55,311 $58,086 $60,860 $63,635 Cumulative Actual/Reforecast $9,328 $15,095 $20,227 $29,395 $35,703 $44,525 $50,489 $56,094 $59,703 $63,239 $65,366 $68,789 Schedule Performance Original Budget $224,278,397 Current Budget $229,690,000 Estimated Variance Completion Cost -2.41% $224,278,397 Current Month (Sep-2013) Spend ($) Planned $4,802,387 Actual $3,608,800 -24.85% Variance End of Year Spend ($) Planned $63,634,753 Forecast $68,789,168 8.10% Variance Actual Forecast ###### $7,078 ###### ###### ###### ###### $0 Cumulative Baseline Forecast ###### Baseline Forecast Cumulative Actual/Reforcast ###### $4,802 ### ##### #### ###### ###### Jan-13 ###### Feb-13###### Mar-13 Jun-13 ### Jul-13 Aug-13 $5,767 ###### Apr-13 ###### May-13 $5,964 ##### #### ######Sep-13 ###### Oct-13 Actual/Reforecast ###### $14,156 ###### ######Mar-13 ###### ###### Jan-13 Feb-13 Apr-13 $7,078 $7,078 $6,557 $15,095 ###### ######$7,078 ###### ###### $9,328 $5,767 $5,132 $9,168 Nov-13 Dec-13 $0 $45,706 Jun-13 ### ##### Jul-13 #### ######Aug-13 ###### Sep-13 May-13 $6,557 $50,489 $6,557 ### ##### $4,802 #### ######$4,802 ###### $4,802 Oct-13 $2,775 Nov-13 $2,775 Dec-13 $2,775 $6,308 $3,536 $2,127 $3,423 Variance 8.10% Playbook Appendix: Project Dashboard Actual/Reforecast $8,822 $5,964 $5,606 $3,609 Cumulative Baseline Forecast $7,078 $14,156 $21,234 $27,790 $34,347 $40,904 $45,706 $50,509 $55,311 $58,086 $60,860 $63,635 Cumulative Actual/Reforecast $9,328 $15,095 $20,227 $29,395 $35,703 $44,525 $50,489 $56,094 $59,703 $63,239 $65,366 $68,789 Schedule Performance Project Stage Project Schedule Stage 1 Stage 1 (BaseLine) Stage 2 Stage 2 (BaseLine) Stage 3 Stage 3 (BaseLine) Stage 4 Stage 4 (BaseLine) Detailed Design Detailed Design (BaseLine) Procurement Procurement (BaseLine) Construction Construction (BaseLine) Outage TAR (BaseLine) Commissioning Commissioning (BaseLine) 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 Time Frame (Months) Project Stages Stage Start End 1. Appraise Sep-12 Jan-14 2. Select Jan-14 Apr-15 3. Define May-15 Jan-16 4. Execute Feb-16 Sep-18 Key Events / Deliverables Concept Selection Oct-14 Define Plan Approval Apr-15 Exec Plan Approval Jan-16 Pre-S/U HSE Review Jun-18 Commissioning Aug-18 Schedule Durations (Mths) Stage Base Line Forecast 1. Appraise 9 16 2. Select 12 15 3. Define 9 9 FEL 30 40 4. Execute 42 32 Overall 72 72 Schedule Variation 33.26% FEL -23.88% Execution 0.00% Overall 0 Cost Performance Timber Gas Lift Beachfield Flare GH Platform Removal Marine Vapour Management NE Decommissioning Sun Decommissioning Prep for wells (BD50) BW Gas Separation GS Fire & Gas Project XP900 Accommodations Quad 205 Polymer Project DRAMP NH500 QD Project 0 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Feb-13 $ 14.6 m $ 13.4 m $ 29.2 m $ 29.0 m M ar-13 $ 14.6 m $ 12.1 m $ 43.8 m $ 41.1 m Apr-13 $ 15.1 m $ 16.5 m $ 58.9 m $ 57.5 m M ay-13 $ 15.1 m $ 15.3 m $ 74.0 m $ 72.9 m Actual $141.0 Variance -4.47% Forecast $217.7 Variance 2.98% Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 $m May-14 $5 m Jan-13 Actual Base Forecast BaseLine Forecast $ 14.6 m Actual Re-Forecast Actual/Re-Forecast $ 15.6 m Cumulative Base Forecast Cumulative Base Forecast $ 14.6 m Cumulative Base Re-Forecast Cumulative Actual/Re-Forecast $ 15.6 m Jun-13 Jul-13 $ 15.1 m $ 19.5 m $ 19.4 m $ 15.9 m $ 89.2 m $ 108.6 m $ 92.2 m $ 108.2 m Aug-13 $ 19.5 m $ 16.6 m $ 128.1 m $ 124.8 m Sep-13 $ 19.5 m $ 16.2 m $ 147.6 m $ 141.0 m Oct-13 $ 21.3 m $ 24.0 m $ 168.9 m $ 165.0 m Nov-13 $ 21.3 m $ 25.1 m $ 190.1 m $ 190.1 m Dec-13 $ 21.3 m $ 27.6 m $ 211.4 m $ 217.7 m 2 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 3 4 2 3 2 2 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 3 4 2 3 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 Project Stage Stage 1 9 11 16% Stage 2 11 13 17% Schedule Index 2 2 3 4 2 3 2 Variation 4 2 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 2 3 2 Planned No of Months Actual / Reforecast No of 4 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 2 3 2 Aug-14 1 2 2 4 2 2 2 Jul-14 1 2 2 4 2 2 2 Jun-14 1 2 2 4 2 2 2 May-14 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 4 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 Apr-14 Project Listing Enhanced Power Upgrade HCFC Replacement Tiger Decommissioning Baku Cond Lines Timber Gas Lift Beachfield Flare GH Platform Removal Marine Vapour Management NE Decommissioning Sun Decommissioning Prep for wells (BD50) BW Gas Separation GS Fire & Gas Project XP900 Accommodations Quad 205 Polymer Project DRAMP NH500 QD Project Mar-14 Schedule Performance Stage 3 7 7 Front End Loading (Stage 2 & Stage 3) 19 20 8% 1.15 Stage 4 26 21 -20% 0.80 Overall Cycle Time (Stage 2 to Stage 4) 46 41 -11% 0.87 Overall Cycle Time (Stage 1 to end Stage 4) 51 54 5% 2 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 4 2 3 2 2 1 2 2 4 2 3 2 2 1 2 2 4 2 3 3 2 2 2 Risk Status Project Stage Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Active D D D D D D C D D D D C D D C D 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 2 2 4 4 3 4 Stage 4 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 1 Legend Stage 3 Stage 2 10% Stage 4 Risk Management Potential High Consequence Risks (D+) (Held by Projects) ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Project Title Baku Cond Lines Prep for wells (BD50) Prep for wells (BD50) HCFC Replacement HCFC Replacement HCFC Replacement Beachfield Flare Beachfield Flare Beachfield Flare Timber Gas Lift GH Platform Removal GH Platform Removal GH Platform Removal Prep for wells (BD50) Sun Decommissioning Sun Decommissioning Risk Title Incident occurring during Hot Work Collision: Vessel Operations West crane removal: Dropped objects PAU Collision with live plant Loss of control over live plant Incident occurring during Hot Work HLV proximity to platform Dropped module/collision - HLV lifting operations Insecure HLV anchoring Primary barrier against gas-lift pressure failure: Casing Bursts Dredging: Platform stability compromised HLV Loss of Stability: HLV Capsize Failure of Personnel Transfer System E-W Crane move: DroppedObjects HLV Loss of Stability: HLV Capsize Failure of Personnel Transfer System Severity Baku Cond Lines Planned $147.6 Planned $211.4 Freq'y Tiger Decommissioning Variance -16.92% $10 m Severity HCFC Replacement Scope defined & concluded with high probability existing plant inventory will not last until new plant is in place. Further contingency measures required if derogation not successful. Plant location evaluation on-going. Identified potential dependency with control room relocation project that may require increased priority. Issues require escalation. On track towards Stage 3 approval in Dec 13. R200 final Statement of Requirements submitted for review and approval. R200 safety and environmental studies on-going. Management of Change for Project Manager change-out progressing. Project work progressing on schedule. There is currently a risk that Wells PA activity will be delayed impacting the eventual facilities removal date. Project slippage of 2 months expected (Sep14 new deterministic date.) Slippage caused by late identification and management of Hazards associated with construction of permanent access road. Recovery plan developed. Temporary road will be used to start critical path work. This will require permit consent and temporary Management of Change approval (2 wks.) Hot Work Go-No-Go review conducted & work approved to commence. Waivers raised against planning gate criteria to allow mobilisation of contractors & start of critical path work (support given by Sr Mgmt.) First batch of pipe spools fabricated & associated work packs completed. Progressing work to demonstrate technical viability of production well retrofit to artificial gas lift and approval by GWO EA via decision paper (expected to obtain sign off by Dec 13.) Approval granted to proceed with approach to fabrication market and preliminary meetings held with Senior Management. Fabrication contract targeted for issue Jan 2014 for a mobilisation window of June-August 2015. Approval received for Contracting Strategy utilising Fuji SOLUTIONS to complete EPC (including new tower fabrication). Fatigue/NDT survey of existing substructure nearing completion ensuring continued integrity, no issues identified to date. Final Statement of Requirements to be issued for sign off by end of Nov. Project Execution Plan issued for review. On track for Stage 3 Approval in Dec. Cost estimate & schedule being developed including Monte Carlo analysis.) Meeting held with Partner, Confidentiality agreement being put in place and outline interface schedule defined. Team working to develop comparative assessment of the two options to make recommendation on the way forward by year end. Best Available Technique (BAT) report completed. Project to be closed-out. Odour Mgmt. Strategy to be handed over to Operations. Closing out and finishing handover to Operations. Progressing in Current Organization until end of Stage 2. Deployment of Procurement & Supply Chain Management resource critical to the success of this project. Schedule Driven, transition to Stage 3 due in October. Approval of Stage 3 Financial Approval to meet project schedule will be a challenge. Plant 1 equipment & 4th out of 4 Waste Heat Recovery Unit's (2014 scope acceleration) released. Plant 1/2 module hydrotest and flushing completed (to enable Mechanical Completion next week.) Twox20" cooling water piping rework on Plant 3 Module ongoing (to be completed by end of Nov.) On track towards agreed capacity release milestone in Dec 13. Project down manning in progress. Info Note approved by Senior Management to close existing project and approve forward plan. Preparing Concept Definition Memorandum. Reviewing organization chart. Independent review of remaining work scope to align with business imperatives. Contractor progressing Stage 1 activity set to plan. Contractor offshore survey completed in November. Structural viability work nearing completion with early results indicating compliant topsides members for the Reference Case. Decision Paper issued to document transition into Stage 2. Risk workshops completed and all major projects risks identified, assessed and risk owners assigned. Targeting Stage 1 to Stage 2 Project Review Meeting in Jan 2014. Started to work the key issues 1) low shear pressure control for wells. 2) inverter mixer feasibility Trials required to demonstrate TRL. Financial Paper drafted in preparation for Stage 1 entry in December. Partner workshop 21st Nov. Project Review Meeting scheduled 18 Dec. Preparing documentation required for entry to Stage 1 gate. In parallel, coordinating ongoing effort to define and evaluate short-term operational measures and mid-term turret mods. Timely implementation of short-term & mid-term measures ahead of potential measures may be critical to protecting production. Project will be recycled into Stage 2 and will be led by the Stage 1 team to demonstrate viability and business needs. $211 $15 m Jan-14 Project handed back to Operations (Will be removed from Portfolio at next Monthly Performance Review). Actual $16.2 Cost Performance (Current Month - Cumulative) Cost ($m) Cost Performance (Year End - Cumulative) Cost ($m) Feb-14 Portfolio Manager Comments Enhanced Power Upgrade ### ### ### ### Apr-14 1,967,959,015 ### ### ### ### Dec-13 217,716,116 $ ### ### ### ### Mar-14 $ Totals Project Listing ### ### ### ### Nov-13 330,800,000 227,000,000 12,600,000 122,822,018 47,600,000 48,300,000 94,296,000 85,000,000 59,000,000 36,100,000 52,032,600 224,278,397 126,130,000 56,000,000 45,000,000 181,000,000 220,000,000 ### ### ### ### Feb-14 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ ### ### ### ### Oct-13 7,231,563 11,194,945 1,470,100 42,246,454 5,700,000 10,442,168 3,448,900 3,473,241 3,683,500 15,600,400 24,110,582 68,789,168 18,399,186 120,000 210,050 985,335 610,525 ### ### ### ### $218 Next 12 Months Total Installed Cost (TIC) of Project ($) 2013 Spend ($) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ ### ### ### ### Jan-14 Mary Lloyd Cary Klein Alberto Graham Roy Ross Blanche Edwards Victor Alvarez Pete Carr Timmy Hicks Gerard Hamilton Ricky Griffin Bobby Smith Dominic Parker Louis Marshall Morris Vega Darrel Long Matt Gardner Ramon Vaughn ### ### ### ### Dec-13 Project Manager Growth Risk Reduction Regulatory Compliance Growth Growth Risk Reduction Regulatory Compliance Risk Reduction Regulatory Compliance Regulatory Compliance Regulatory Compliance Growth Risk Reduction Growth Growth Growth Risk Reduction #### #### #### #### Sep-13 Business Driver Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 1 Stage 4 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 1 Stage 1 Stage 1 Stage 1 #### #### #### #### Oct-13 Current Project Stage Risk Table A B C 12 7 15 D 11 4 8 9 3 1 2 10 5 6 13 14 16 E F G H Freq'y 1 2 3 4 5 6 Leading Indicators Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI) 800 700 600 Score Project Listing #### #### #### #### Nov-13 Portfolio Dashboard (End of Sep 2013) Mar-13 BaseLine $25 mForecast Actual Re-Forecast Cumulative Base Forecast $20Re-Forecast m Cumulative Base Feb-13 CURRENT YEAR Planned $19.5 (Current Year) Jan-13 $30 m Portfolio Project Listing Enhanced Power Upgrade HCFC Replacement Tiger Decommissioning Baku Cond Lines Timber Gas Lift Beachfield Flare GH Platform Removal Marine Vapour Management NE Decommissioning Sun Decommissioning Prep for wells (BD50) BW Gas Separation GS Fire & Gas Project XP900 Accommodations Quad 205 Polymer Project DRAMP NH500 QD Project Cost Performance (Current Month) Cost ($m) Planned vs Actual / Reforecast Cost ($m) Gross Playbook Appendix: Portfolio Dashboard 500 400 Leading Indicators PDRI PDRI 1PDRI 2PDRI 2iPDRI 3 300 200 100 0 Actual Target Target 550 450 300 150 700700 Actual 625 330 180 PDRI 1 550 PDRI 2 625 450 PDRI 2i 330 300 PDRI 3 180 150 7 8 Playbook Appendix: Portfolio Dashboard 0 Cost Performance Cost Performance (Current Month) Cost ($m) Planned vs Actual / Reforecast CURRENT YEAR Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 BaseLine $25 mForecast Actual Re-Forecast Cumulative Base Forecast $20Re-Forecast m Cumulative Base #### #### #### #### #### #### #### #### #### #### #### #### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### $218 $211 $15 m Jan-13 Feb-13 Actual Base Forecast BaseLine ForecastActual Re-Forecast $ 14.6 m $ 14.6 m Actual/Re-Forecast $ 15.6 m $ 13.4 m Cumulative Base Forecast Cumulative Base Forecast $ 14.6 m $ 29.2 m Cumulative Base Re-Forecast Mar-13 $ 14.6 m $ 12.1 m $ 43.8 m Cumulative Actual/Re-Forecast $ 15.6 m $ 29.0 m $ 41.1 m Schedule Performance Apr-13 $ 15.1 m $ 16.5 m $ 58.9 m $ 57.5 m May-13 $ 15.1 m $ 15.3 m $ 74.0 m $ 72.9 m Jun-13 $ 15.1 m $ 19.4 m $ 89.2 m $ 92.2 m Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 May-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Dec-13 Nov-13 $10 m $m Variance -16.92% Cost Performance (Current Month - Cumulative) Cost ($m) Planned $147.6 Planned $211.4 Next 12 Months $5 m Actual $16.2 Actual $141.0 Variance -4.47% Cost Performance (Year End - Cumulative) Cost ($m) Oct-13 Cost ($m) Gross $30 m Planned $19.5 (Current Year) Jul-13 $ 19.5 m $ 15.9 m $ 108.6 m $ 108.2 m Aug-13 $ 19.5 m $ 16.6 m $ 128.1 m $ 124.8 m Sep-13 $ 19.5 m $ 16.2 m $ 147.6 m $ 141.0 m Oct-13 $ 21.3 m $ 24.0 m $ 168.9 m $ 165.0 m Nov-13 $ 21.3 m $ 25.1 m $ 190.1 m $ 190.1 m Dec-13 $ 21.3 m $ 27.6 m $ 211.4 m $ 217.7 m Forecast $217.7 Variance 2.98% Playbook Appendix: Portfolio Dashboard May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 1 2 2 4 2 2 2 1 2 3 4 2 3 2 2 2 3 4 2 3 2 2 2 3 4 2 3 2 2 3 3 4 2 3 2 2 3 3 4 2 3 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 2 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 4 2 3 2 2 1 2 2 4 2 3 2 2 1 2 2 4 2 3 3 2 2 2 Schedule Index Mar-14 1 2 2 4 2 2 2 Project Stage Variation Jan-14 Feb-14 1 2 2 4 2 2 2 Planned No of Months Actual / Reforecast No of Dec-13 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 4 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 Apr-14 Nov-13 Enhanced Power Upgrade HCFC Replacement Tiger Decommissioning Baku Cond Lines Timber Gas Lift Beachfield Flare GH Platform Removal Marine Vapour Management NE Decommissioning Sun Decommissioning Prep for wells (BD50) BW Gas Separation GS Fire & Gas Project XP900 Accommodations Quad 205 Polymer Project DRAMP NH500 QD Project Oct-13 Project Listing Sep-13 Schedule Performance Stage 1 9 11 16% Stage 2 11 13 17% Stage 3 7 7 10% Front End Loading (Stage 2 & Stage 3) 19 20 8% 1.15 Stage 4 26 21 -20% 0.80 Overall Cycle Time (Stage 2 to Stage 4) 46 41 -11% 0.87 Overall Cycle Time (Stage 1 to end Stage 4) 51 54 5% Stage 1 Legend Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 4 2 3 2 2 1 2 4 2 3 2 2 1 2 4 2 3 3 2 2 2 Risk Title Risk Status Severity Freq'y Prep for wells (BD50) BW Gas Separation GS Fire & Gas Project XP900 Accommodations Quad 205 Polymer Project DRAMP NH500 QD Project 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 2 1 1 1 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 Project Stage Incident occurring during Hot Work Collision: Vessel Operations West crane removal: Dropped objects PAU Collision with live plant Loss of control over live plant Incident occurring during Hot Work HLV proximity to platform Dropped module/collision - HLV lifting operations Insecure HLV anchoring Primary barrier against gas-lift pressure failure: Casing Bursts Dredging: Platform stability compromised HLV Loss of Stability: HLV Capsize Failure of Personnel Transfer System E-W Crane move: DroppedObjects HLV Loss of Stability: HLV Capsize Failure of Personnel Transfer System Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Active D D D D D D C D D D D C D D C D 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 2 2 4 4 3 4 Stage 4 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Overall Cycle Time (Stage 2 to Stage 4) 46 41 -11% Overall Cycle Time (Stage 1 to end Stage 4) 51 54 5% 0.87 Playbook Appendix: Portfolio Dashboard Legend Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Potential High Consequence Risks (D+) (Held by Projects) ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Project Title Baku Cond Lines Prep for wells (BD50) Prep for wells (BD50) HCFC Replacement HCFC Replacement HCFC Replacement Beachfield Flare Beachfield Flare Beachfield Flare Timber Gas Lift GH Platform Removal GH Platform Removal GH Platform Removal Prep for wells (BD50) Sun Decommissioning Sun Decommissioning Severity Risk Management A B C 12 7 15 D 11 4 9 8 3 1 2 10 5 6 13 16 14 2 3 4 E F G H Freq'y Leading Indicators Risk Table 1 5 6 7 8 13 14 15 16 GH Platform Removal Prep for wells (BD50) Sun Decommissioning Failure of Personnel Transfer System E-W Crane move: DroppedObjects HLV Loss of Stability: HLV Capsize Failure of Personnel Transfer System Active Active Active Active D D C D 4 4 3 4 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 2 G H Playbook Appendix: Portfolio Dashboard Sun Decommissioning Freq'y 1 2 3 4 5 6 Leading Indicators Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI) 800 700 Score 600 500 400 Leading Indicators PDRI PDRI 1PDRI 2PDRI 2iPDRI 3 300 200 100 0 Actual Target Target 550 450 300 150 PDRI 1 Actual700700 550 625 330 180 PDRI 2 625 450 PDRI 2i 330 300 PDRI 3 180 150 7 8 Playbook Appendix: Next Steps—Data Visualization Managing a Portfolio of Projects – A Playbook for Success Questions/Comments? Portfolio management Playbook