Richard Kamidza
Regional Trade Policy Advisor
Hub & Spokes Project
SADC Secretariat
Private Bag 0095
Gaborone
Botswana
rkamidza@sadc.int or richard.kamidza@gmail.com
+67 74 337 037 or +267 3951077
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Introduction
Trade Development Challenges
Context in trade policy formulation
Formulating national trade policies
Implications of weak trade policy formulation
What should Members of Parliament do?
Conclusion
The dilemma facing developing countries including Namibia!
Falling Export Receipts
Development Aid
External Debt;
Balance of Payment
challenges
Though global trade is recognised as a powerful engine of economic
growth & poverty reduction, many developing countries including
Namibia:
 find it difficult to maximise benefits from trade;
 still lack a cohesive national trade policy or trade development
strategy;
 experience high staff turnover in trade related ministries thereby
making it difficult to build an experienced & knowledgeable trade
policy machinery;
 have incomplete trade statistics & industry data which impedes
the ability to make informed decisions in formulating trade
policies, conducting trade negotiations & assessing trade
development progress;
 have existing trade consultative networks to inform policy making
that are over-represented by government officials at the expense
of the private sector & civil society;
……… many developing countries including Namibia lack:
 sound analysis of trade opportunities; strategic &
targeted interventions; & inclusive stakeholder
engagement & coordinated action;
 coordination mechanism to enhance effective trade
policy formulation & trade negotiations partnership
between governments, regional organisations, the
private sector, civil society & development partners;
 the ability to harness trust & accountability while
addressing trade capacity development needs;
 substantial resources targeting long-term solutions
(human and institutional trade capacities) and short term
capacity gaps (backstopping support and trade analysis);
……… many developing countries including Namibia:
 Have exports that are under threats from regional competitors (South
Africa), the global financial crisis & the Eurozone debt crisis resulting in:
˃ balance of payment difficulties;
˃ Reduced national budgets;
˃ Retrenchment of civil service personnel including trade related
ministries;
˃ For example, the Eurozone crisis has directly reduced South Africa’s
manufactured exports to that region (Europe is accounts for a third of
South Africa’s manufactured exports) (Business Day, 11/5/2012);
˃ According to Statistics South Africa on 10/5/2012, in March:
+ manufacturing factory production fell by 2,7% year on year;
+ output across a broad range of industries declined by 4,3%;
+ mining production dropped by 9,8% year on year;
+ Production of motor vehicles, food a& beverages, basic iron &
steel, petroleum & chemical products, & furniture all fell;
Institutional challenges (Is this the case with Namibia?)
 Some developing countries have significantly weak:
˃ institutional capacity, structures & systems in:
+ trade policy formulation; &
+ trade negotiations;
˃ civil service capacity to generate & implement evidencebased trade policies, resulting in the adoption of ad-hoc
measures as instituted by ruling political elites & other
vested interest groups with strong political ties;
˃ platforms for consultations & dialogue on trade issues
between government officials & Non-State-Actors (business
sector, civil society, labour, media) & parliamentarians;
Stakeholder relationships (Is this the case with Namibia?)
 Some developing countries have:
˃ contested trade policy formulation environment in which political
agents, private sector lobbies, civil society institutions, donor
agencies & researchers want to influence the process & outcome;
˃ strong organized private sector (Manufacturers Association;
National Association of Chambers of Commerce; National
Association of Small Scale Industrialists; Association of Exporters;
banking institutions and other professional associations) that is:
+ capable of influencing the formulation & implementation of
trade policies, trade negotiations & regional trade agenda;
+ vocal, often interested in defending commercial interests of its
constituents by extensive lobbying of various government
offices & the Presidency for extended protective periods of
high tariffs;
Stakeholder relationships (Contd.) (Is this the case with
Namibia?)
 Some developing countries have:
˃ been experiencing increasing participation of civil society
institutions (NGOs, faith-based institutions, consumer
advocacy groups & labour):
+ In trade policy formulation & trade negotiations;
+ In advocating for the interest of ordinary citizens,
particularly the vulnerable groups in society (women,
youths & physically challenged) in both urban & rural
areas;
˃ been experiencing limited presence of academic & research
institutions in trade policy formulation & trade negotiations;
Why trade policy formulation?
» This is central to the overall goal of achieving sustainable social-economic
development;
» This requires patience, tenacity & flexibility;
» This is not a finite process or event, but a continuous cycle;
Trade related Namibian Ministries involved in designing trade policy include:
Trade & Industry
Fisheries & Marine Resources
Finance
Mines & Energy
Environment & Tourism
Agriculture, Water & Rural Development
Central Statistics Office
National Planning Commission
For instance:
 Finance – overseas the setting & administration of taxes and
duties;
 National Planning Commission – ensures compatibility of new
trade treaties with existing national development plans;
 Trade & Industry – ensures coherence with regional trade agenda;
Formulating national trade policies (Contd.)
… the process
President /
Prime Minister
National
Assembly
Legislative Proposals
Cabinet
National Focal
Point on Trade
Trade
Policy
Goals
National
Legislation
Other
fiscal
policy
goals
Non State
Actors
Trade Policy
Proposals
Inter-Ministerial
Forum on Trade
Tariff Technical
Committee
Implementation Institutions (some examples)
•Ministry of Trade & Industry;
•Ministry of Fisheries & Marine Resources;
•Department of Customs, etc.
Formulating national trade policies (Contd.)
Coordination & Communication Strategy
Information
Trade Policy or
Trade
Negotiations
Discussion
Participation
Formulating national trade policies (Contd.)
 However, the above requires effective:
– coordination of various trade-related agencies within
government;
– Strengthening of private sector engagement by:• avoiding ad-hoc approach to the sector;
• mainstreaming consultative network with balanced
cross-sectoral representation;
• encouraging the sector to build technical skills in order
to provide quality advice and input;
• encouraging the sector to participate in specialised
trade policy training programmes;
– dialogue facilitation with other stakeholders such as:
– NSAs – business sector; civil society groups & labour; &
– MPs;
Formulating national trade policies (Contd.)
BUT in some regional countries there is: (Which is true for
Namibia?)
 lack of reliable network of public-private sector trade policy
practitioners that is trusted by government;
 no reliable trade statistics & industry data to assist in making
informed decisions as well as assess trade development
progress;
 weak synergies & coalitions between & among various key
constituencies, resulting in lack of collective ownership of the
trade regime;
 weak institutional & structural capacity in trade policy
formulation & trade negotiations at all levels;
 no regulatory frameworks resulting in fluctuating exchange
rates, high inflation rates & poor fiscal measures amid
widespread corruptions;
 low industrial capacities & competitiveness;
BUT in some regional countries: (Is this the case with Namibia?)
 developing national trade policy takes up-to 5 years;
 trade agreements continue to be negotiated without a guiding national
trade policy strategy;
Lessons from other regional countries on national trade policy
formulation & trade negotiations;
 Mauritius
 Has a fairly resourced trade negotiation structure (a political
directive);
 Botswana
 More often, government & NSAs meet under platform;
 Zimbabwe
 Has a loose, non-binding structure;
 South Africa:
• Has National Economic Development and Labour Council (NEDLAC),
a vehicle in which representatives of government, labour, business &
community organisations seek common ground on socio-economic
development including trade policy formulation; trade negotiations; &
regional integration processes;
Trade policy & regional integration initiatives
Namibian trade policy & its linkage with regional integration initiatives;
 SACU Agenda:
– Common Monetary Area (monetary policy);
– Revenue sharing arrangement;
– Share of that market;
– How strategic is Namibia in SACU?
 SADC Agenda
– Consolidation of SADC FTA following its launch in 20008;
– Focuses on:
– Reducing trade protection;
– Spurring competitive liberalization;
– Enhancing economic efficiency;
– Improving investment prospects for the region;
– Fostering complementarities in regional industrial policy;
– Improving cross-border infrastructure development;
Trade policy & regional integration initiatives (Contd.)
 the Tripartite FTA involving COMESA, EAC & SADC;
– comprises 26 countries (half of AU) with a combined population of
527 million people;
– is based on three Pillars:
• Industrial development
• Infrastructure Development
• Market integration
– The processes:
• 1st phase of negotiations focuses on tariff liberalization; rules of
origin; customs cooperation & customs related matters; NonTrade-Barriers; Technical Barriers in Trade; etc.
• 2nd phase of negotiations will focus on trade in services; trade
related issues, trade development & competitiveness;
– How is Namibia positioning itself to exploit this market?
– Is Namibia domesticating regional development plans, programmes,
policies & decisions?;
Implications of weak trade policy formulation
Does Namibia’s trade
policy generates enough
revenue to support Socioeconomic development
challenges including
transport networks?
Implications of weak trade policy formulation (Contd.)
Does Namibia’s trade policy implementation capable of supporting health & poverty
alleviation?
Part of MY community or family tree
Does Namibia’s trade policy implementation supporting
education or information technology expansion?
My grandmother follows
national development issues
& events on facebook &
twitter;
Implications of weak trade policy formulation (Contd.)
USA: US$342 = R2,538
Germany: € 375 = R3712
Stakeholders must:
 Strategically link with:
˃ national & regional trade negotiators;
˃ national & regional trade focused institutions;
˃ development partners working on trade issues;
 Monitor:
˃ The design &/or implementation of your trade policy;
˃ how government officials share trade negotiated outcomes & agreed
regional trade schedules & commitments with other stakeholders &
citizens;
˃ how negotiators to package national interests, positions & offers
during regional, bilateral and multilateral trade negotiations;
 Support for the setting up of national & regional institutions that develop
knowledge, skills & capacities to simultaneous deal with regional, bilateral
& multilateral trade negotiations;
 Form or build synergies, coalitions & partnerships with other stakeholders
in order to ensure fair scrutiny of the process & outcomes by all
stakeholders, media & citizens;
Conclusion
As MPs when interacting with government negotiators & officials on trade
policy or trade negotiations, always seek answers on the following questions:
•What gains are possible? What gains are likely? For whom?
•What losses are possible? What losses are likely? For whom?
•What is the cost of not engaging in trade policy formulation?
•What is the cost implications of blame shifting in trade policy
design?
•How to develop collective multi-stakeholder leadership , skills &
strategies that generate benefits from trade related policies?
•How to link trade related processes and outcomes with poverty
alleviation & sustainable socio-economic development?
Thank you