Export performance of Sri Lanka Statistical Analysis By Subhashini Abeysinghe, Senior Economic Analyst Verité Research Pvt. Ltd. A interactive Forum “Whither Exports in the next 5 years?”, Organized by The Exporters Association of Sri Lanka 25th October 2013 Exports from selected East Asian Countries (as a % of World Exports) 3,00% 2,50% 2,00% 1,50% 1,00% 0,50% Sri Lanka South Korea Malaysia Source: World Trade Organization Thailand 2012 2008 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 1984 1980 1976 1972 1968 1964 1960 1956 1952 1948 0,00% Viet Nam Exports as a % of GDP: Comparison with East Asian NICs 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 0 Malaysia Sri Lanka Thailand Source: World Bank Data Korea, Rep. Exports As a % of GDP: Comparison with selected developing countries in Asia 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Bangladesh Vietnam India Sri Lanka Source: World Bank Data Cambodia 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 0 Sri Lanka: Growth in Exports and Imports by Month 100 80 60 40 20 -40 Export Growth Import Growth Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka июл.13 май.13 мар.13 янв.13 ноя.12 сен.12 июл.12 май.12 мар.12 янв.12 ноя.11 сен.11 июл.11 май.11 мар.11 -20 янв.11 0 Annual Average Export Growth (%) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2002-12 2010-12 Source: World Trade Organization Sri Lanka Pakistan Chile Malaysia Thailand South Korea Brazil Bangladesh India Cambodia Viet Nam Ghana 0 Composition of Exports from Sri Lanka Composition of Exports (% of GDP) Composition of Exports (Value USD Mn) 25 9000 8000 20 7000 6000 15 5000 4000 10 3000 2000 5 Agricultural exports Industrial Exports Services exports Agriculture Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Services 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 0 2004 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 0 2003 1000 Industry Composition of Exports from Sri Lanka Industrial Exports (As a % of Total Exports) Agriculture Exports (As a % of Total Exports) 80 28 78 26 24 76 22 74 20 72 18 16 70 Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 10 2005 66 2004 12 2003 68 2003 14 Composition of Exports from Sri Lanka Textile and Garments as a % of Manufacturing 80 Garments Exports: Vietnam and Sri Lanka Value & % of Manufacturing Exports 70 160 60 140 50 50 120 40 40 30 30 20 20 60 10 China Malaysia Viet Nam India Sri Lanka 2012 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 0 Indonesia Thailand 100 80 60 40 10 20 0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 70 VT (USD Bn) VT (% of Manu.) Source: World Trade Organization/Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports SL(USD Bn) SL(% of Manu.) Apparel Sector Top 5 Products Exported to USA 350 500 250 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 3,0 Value (US$ Mn) 2012 2011 2010 2009 Quantity (Mn Units) Leading apparel items exported as a % of Total apparel imports into USA from Sri Lanka (at 6 digit level) Persons engaged '000s (L) 31 18 Top 5 26 Top 10 2002 62 58 49 No. of establishments (R ) Source: Department of Census and Statistics 2008 2,0 2007 1000 450 4,0 2006 550 5,0 2005 1500 6,0 2004 650 7,0 2003 2000 Us$ Million 750 8,0 2002 No of Persons 850 2500 No of establishments 3000 950 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 Million Units Employment and Establishments 38 33 Top 15 Top 20 2012 Source: US International Trade Commission Agricultural Products Tea Exports (Price and Volume) Desiccated Coconut Cinnamon 500 Volume Value 10 121 1 362 -16 115 36 203 400 200 300 150 200 100 100 50 0 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Natural Rubber 300 250 Million Kg Tea 600 Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports Volume Mn Kg Price Rs/Kg Rs/Kg Agriculture Product Export Growth (%): 2002-2012 350 Agricultural Products Average Price (Rs per Kg) 70 1200 60 1000 50 800 40 Tea Bags Packets Bulk Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports Tea Bags Packets Bulk 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2005 2012 2011 2010 0 2009 0 2008 200 2007 10 2006 400 2005 20 2006 600 30 2004 Percentage Composition of Tea Exports Instant tea Source: Sri Lanka Customs Statistics Agricultural Products 600 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0 Labour Force (000' persons) Daily wages (incl price share and incentive) 1 0 COP (USD/Kg) Source: Statistical Information on Plantation Crops Vietnam 200 Kenya 300 2 India 400 Bangladesh 500 3 Sri Lanka 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 Cost of Production and Productivity- Tea Rs per Day 000' Persons Employment and Wages - Plantations Productivity (000Kg/ha/yr) Product Concentration Product Concentration of Exports at HS 4 digit 59 61 49 52 Composition of Exports by Product Diamonds Spices Rubber products 36 35 Tea Petroleum products Apparel CR(5) CR(10) 2005 CR (15) 2012 Other 0 10 2012 Central Bank Annual Reports and Sri Lanka Customs Statistics 20 30 40 2002 50 Market Concentration Direction of Exports (As a % of Total Exports) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Market Concentration of Exports (% of Total Exports) 82 75 74 66 62 Asa EU USA Other 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 51 CR(5) Asia - India Central Bank Annual Reports and Sri Lanka Customs Statistics CR(10) 2005 2012 CR(15) Services Exports 1000 0,01 500 0,00 0 World Exports (USD BN) 2012 0,02 2010 1500 2008 0,03 2006 2000 2004 0,04 2002 2500 2000 0,05 1998 3000 1996 0,06 1994 3500 1992 0,07 1990 4000 1988 0,08 1986 4500 1984 0,09 1982 5000 1980 0,10 Share of Sri Lanka Source: World Trade Organisation Value USD Bn % Share Commercial Services: Value of World Exports and the Market Share of Sri Lanka Services Exports Exports as a % of Total World Export of Commercial Services 3,50 3,00 2,50 India Malaysia 2,00 Sri Lanka Viet Nam 1,50 Indonesia Thailand 1,00 0,50 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 0,00 Services Exports Ranking of Sri Lanka Global Locations Index 2011 Export Earnings: USD Million Total Score 1200 21 Business Environment 1000 People, skills and availability 800 Financial Attractiveness 600 44 33 6 0 10 20 30 40 50 Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index Rank out of 140 countries (2013) 400 200 Availability of qualified labor IT/BPO Sector 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 0 Tourism Sector 112 ICT infrastructure 116 Tourism infrastructure 108 Environmental sustainability 119 Overal rank Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports & Export Development Board 74 0 50 100 Source of Export Growth Intensive Margin or Extensive Margin? Shift in Product Composition: 2005 & 2012 (Change as a % of Exports): 62 71 39 63 84 95 24 44 87 08 20 21 85 89 11 53 38 03 23 61 09 40 -8,0 -3,0 HS Description 62 71 39 63 84 95 24 44 87 Apparel – not Knitted or crocheted Precious stones Plastics/articles thereof Made up textile articles Machinery and parts Toys, games, sports equip. Tobacco, manufac. Tobacco Wood and articles thereof Vehicle spare parts 08 20 Coconuts/fruits Preparations vegetables, fruits 21 85 89 11 Misc. edible preparations Electrical machinery and parts Ships, boats Milling industry products 53 38 03 23 Veg. textile fibers Misc. chemical products Fish Residues from food indus/animal feed 61 09 40 Apparel – Knitted or crocheted Tea and spices Rubber and articles thereof 2,0 Source: Sri Lanka Customs Statistics Source of Export Growth Intensive Margin or Extensive Margin? Annual Average Growth (%) : 2006 - 2012 39 61 71 63 95 24 62 09 87 03 44 53 84 40 08 85 38 11 20 23 21 89 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 HS Description 39 61 71 63 95 61 24 09 87 03 44 53 84 40 08 Plastics/articles thereof Apparel – not Knitted or crocheted Precious stones Made up textile articles Toys, games, sports equip. Apparel – Knitted or crocheted Tobacco, manufac. Tobacco Tea and spices Vehicle spare parts Fish Wood and articles thereof Veg. textile fibers Machinery and parts Rubber and articles thereof Coconuts/fruits 85 38 11 20 Electrical machinery and parts Misc. chemical products Milling industry products Preparations vegetables, fruits 23 21 49 89 Residues from food indus/animal feed Misc. edible preparations Printed books, papers, pictures Ships, boats Source: Sri Lanka Customs Statistics Source of Export Growth Intensive Margin or Extensive Margin? Change in Direction of Exports: 2005 &2012 U.S.A. INDIA U.KING. SPAIN SNGAPOR FRANCE JAPAN U.ARB.E SU.ARAB SYRIA NETHLDS ISRAEL HG KONG MALDIVE PAKISTN UKRAINE SWEDEN RUSSIA THAILND BANGLA MEXICO CANADA AUSTRAL SWITZLD LIBYA AZBIJAN GERMANY MALYSIA INDNSIA TURKEY IRAQ CHINA BELGIUM IRAN ITALY -10,0 -5,0 Average Export Growth (2005-2012) U.S.A. INDIA SPAIN TOTAL U.K. FRANCE JAPAN U.A.E. SYRIA NETHERLANDS RUSSIA GERMENY BELGIUM CANADA PAKISTAN AUSTRALIA SAUDI ARABIA HONG KONG ISRAEL MEXICO UKRAINE MALDIVES IRAN SWITZERLAND ITALY TURKEY THAILAND SWEDEN BANGLADESH CHINA SINGAPORE IRAQ INDONESIA MALAYSIA LIBYA AZERBAIJAIN 0,0 5,0 Source: Sri Lanka Customs Statistics 0 20 40 60 Exports to Asia Exports to Selected Asian Countries (China, S. Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore) 40 35 As a % of Total Exports 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Thailand Vietnam India Pakistan Source: www.trademap.org Sri Lanka Exports from Sri Lanka: Shrinking Share in a Growing Market 20 0,03% 6 0,02% 4 0,01% 2 0,00% 0 World Exports Share of Sri Lanka 2011 8 2008 0,04% 2005 10 2002 0,05% 1999 12 1996 0,06% 1993 14 1990 0,07% 1987 16 1984 0,08% 1981 18 1978 0,09% World Export Value USD TN % Share of Sri Lanka 0,10% World Export Value of Merchandise Exports and World Market Share of Sri Lanka Time Taken to Double World Exports USD Trillion 19791991 19912003 20032008 2-4 4-8 8-16 13 Years 13 Years 6 Years ? Exports from Sri Lanka: In Shrinking Markets? Share of Agricultural Products and Clothing Exports in World Exports 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0 Agriculture products Clothing Source: World Trade Organisation Exports from Sri Lanka: In Shrinking Markets? Source: Key Trends in International Merchandise Trade, UNCTAD, 2013 Exports from Sri Lanka: In Shrinking Markets? Share of World Imports 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 0 Developed economies Developing economies Developing economies: Asia Source: UNCTAD International Trade Statistics Thank You!