The Gartner Hype Cycle for Education Through the Nexus Lens Building the Strategic Technology Map Dr.Jan-Martin Lowendahl VP, Research © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. This publication may not be reproduced or distributed in any form without Gartner's prior written permission. If you are authorized to access this publication, your use of it is subject to the Usage Guidelines for Gartner Services posted on gartner.com. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner di sclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information and shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in such information. This publication consists of the opinions of Gartner's research organization and should not be construed as statements of fact. 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Adaptive E-Textbooks Big Data Gamification MOOC Social Software Standards Learning Stack Wireless aaS COBIT Adaptive Learning Citizen Developers Digital Preservation of Research Data BYOD Strategy Student Retention CRM E-Book Readers Open-Source SIS Game Consoles as Self-Publishing BPO Media Hubs SIS International Data Mobile-Learning Low-Range/ Interoperability Standards Tablets Mashups Midrange Handsets Affective Computing Open-Source Financials Unified Communications and Campus App Store EA Frameworks ITIL Collaboration 802.11n Open Microcredentials Web-Based Social Learning Lecture Capture and Retrieval Tools Education Tablet Office Productivity Platform for Intellectual Property Rights and Royalties Suites Education Management Software IT Infrastructure Utility Cloud HPC/CaaS Quantum Computing Enterprise Architecture Mobile-Learning SaaS Administration Applications Smartphones Open-Source Middleware Open-Source Learning Repositories Mashware Suites Hosted Virtual Desktops Emergency/Mass Notification Services E-Textbook Cloud Email for Staff and Faculty Virtual Environments/Virtual Worlds From, "Hype Cycle for Education, 2013," 25 July 2013 (G00251104) Hype Cycle for Education, 2013 A CIO Toolbox expectations Learning Stack Citizen Developers Student Retention CRM Open-Source SIS Adaptive E-Textbooks Big Data Gamification MOOC Social Software Standards Wireless aaS COBIT Adaptive Learning Digital Preservation of Research Data BYOD Strategy Years to mainstream adoption: Less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years More than 10 years Obsolete before plateau E-Book Readers Game Consoles as Self-Publishing BPO Media Hubs SIS International Data Mobile-Learning Low-Range/ Interoperability Standards Tablets Mashups Midrange Handsets Affective Computing Open-Source Financials Unified Communications and Campus App Store EA Frameworks ITIL Collaboration 802.11n Open Microcredentials Web-Based Social Learning Lecture Capture and Retrieval Tools Education Tablet Office Productivity Platform for Intellectual Property Rights and Royalties Suites Education Management Software IT Infrastructure Utility Cloud HPC/CaaS Quantum Computing Enterprise Architecture Mobile-Learning SaaS Administration Applications Smartphones Open-Source Middleware Open-Source Learning Repositories Mashware Suites Hosted Virtual Desktops Emergency/Mass Notification Services E-Textbook Cloud Email for Staff and Faculty Virtual Environments/Virtual Worlds Peak of Innovation Trough of Plateau of Inflated Slope of Enlightenment Trigger Disillusionment Productivity Expectations As of July 2013 time From, "Hype Cycle for Education, 2013," 25 July 2013 (G00251104) #GartnerSYM Off the Hype Cycle: e-portfolio, User-centric IAM, Organization-centric IAM, SOA, Student Enrollment CRM, Open-Source Portals, Social Media in Education © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Hype Cycle for Education, 2013 A CIO Toolbox expectations Learning Stack Citizen Developers Student Retention CRM Open-Source SIS Adaptive E-Textbooks Big Data Gamification MOOC Social Software Standards Wireless aaS COBIT Adaptive Learning Digital Preservation of Research Data BYOD Strategy The Capabilities: Digitalization Exostructure E-Book Readers Game Consoles as Self-Publishing BPO Media Hubs SIS International Data Mobile-Learning Low-Range/ Interoperability Standards Tablets Mashups Midrange Handsets Affective Computing Open-Source Financials Unified Communications and Campus App Store EA Frameworks ITIL Collaboration 802.11n Open Microcredentials Web-Based Social Learning Lecture Capture and Retrieval Tools Education Tablet Office Productivity Platform for Intellectual Property Rights and Royalties Suites Education Management Software IT Infrastructure Utility Cloud HPC/CaaS Quantum Computing Enterprise Architecture Mobile-Learning SaaS Administration Applications Smartphones Open-Source Middleware Open-Source Learning Repositories Mashware Suites Hosted Virtual Desktops Emergency/Mass Notification Services E-Textbook As of July 2013 Cloud Email for Staff and Faculty Virtual Environments/Virtual Worlds Peak of Innovation Trough of Plateau of Inflated Slope of Enlightenment Trigger Disillusionment Productivity Expectations time From, "Hype Cycle for Education, 2013," 25 July 2013 (G00251104) #GartnerSYM Off the Hype Cycle: e-portfolio, User-centric IAM, Organization-centric IAM, SOA, Student Enrollment CRM, Open-Source Portals, Social Media in Education © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. The Expanding Education Ecosystem Increasing Options and Competition! You Are Here DIY Importance of Exostructure Kroton OERu Udemy K-12 Georgia Tech Udacity Banner Moodle Civitas Intel Adobe Connect Blackboard Knewton X plugjam Tools 2U Facebook/ Social Embanet Compass Services NCAT Hired Hand Pearson AcademicPub Kno Tegrity Open Tapestry Dell "cloud" Saf-T-Net Context The Expanding Education Ecosystem: A World of Choice (G00228925) McGraw-Hill MS Certification OpenClass Perceptis FE Continuous Fronter Moodlerooms Connections Education Statistics.com Apollo G LiveMocha Workday Texas A&M HE Corporate U Starfish Retention Core StraighterLine OpenCourseWare/ Merlot International Baccalaureate Carnegie Learning MyFit Gaining Competitive Advantage in the Education Ecosystem Requires Going Beyond Mere Infrastructure to Exostructure (G00251105) Content Cool Vendors in Education, 2013 (G00250361) © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Higher Education "Business Model" Scenarios — Technological Decisions by Storytelling Perceived Quality Collectively Defined Oxford Only Us U Everybody's U Community College Scale Exclusive Inclusive Wharton Me, Not U Source: "Four 'Business Model' Scenarios for Higher Education: An Introduction to Strategic Planning Through Storytelling" (G00167364) © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. All About U U.K. Open University Personally Defined Udacity A Nexus of Forces Extreme Networking Pervasive Access GlobalClass Delivery "Big" Context #GartnerSYM © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. The Nexus and Trends in Education Social Learning Mobile Learning Open Badges “Education” Devices MOOC SaaS Admin Solutions #GartnerSYM © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Big Data Adaptive Learning Explaining the Strategic Technology Map y log z T o hn ec lt Re n su 2 tio Ac De n cis ss ce ion 1 tio Ac rt o Improves Institutional ROI Organizational Efficiency Sta Corporate Green Light. Hot Spot! f(x = P ple eo y ) n Pr € No New Ideas … "Unsocial Sociability" Immanuel Kant 1724-1804 Cold Case? People's Choice. Improves Student and Faculty Experience #GartnerSYM Personal Productivity © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Improves Institutional ROI Organizational Efficiency Strategic Direction and Timing: Connecting the Dots in the Education HC/STM Mashup Adaptive Learning CRM, Enroll. Lecture Learning Capture CRM, Ret. & Retrieval Stack Social Learning BPO SIS Platform Standards SaaS Admin App Mashups LMS Open OSS OSS COBIT Microcredentials Fin. SIS Adaptive SIS Data EA FIAM E-Textbooks Interoperability Mobile OC Learning Smartphone IAM E-Textbook SOA "Cloud" Office ITIL OSS Cloud MOOC Middleware Email Suites Faculty E-Book Email Readers Tablet Web/App. Social WaaS Hosting Media Hype Cycle Color Key Strategic Services: Digitalized Flexible Learning Service Improves Student/Faculty Experience (Learning Stack Service) Personal Productivity Improves … Remember "Everything Is Relative" © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Surfing the Perfect Wave #GartnerSYM © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Appendix: Top Lists #GartnerSYM © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 11 Education top 10... (just 5 For now...) • “Business” Trends 1. Student Experience • Technology Trends 1. Big Data (Analytics and Adaptive learning) 2. Outcomes-based Learning 2. Mobile 3. Competing for Students in a Globalized Community 3. Cloud 4. New Business Models 4. Keeping pace with infrastructure/build an exostructure (Figuring out competition and sustainable funding) 5. Data-driven decisions 5. Digital Learning Environment (Mashing up a ...) - ... - ... - Digitalization of Education and Research - Digitalization of Education and Research #GartnerSYM © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. From draft of “CIO World in 2014: An Education Perspective” CIO Agenda: Technology Focus – Top spending Education 1 INFRASTRUCTURE & DATACENTER 2 BI/ANALYTICS 3 CLOUD 4 ERP 5 MOBILE 6 NETWORKING, VOICE AND DATA COMMS 7 SECURITY 8 CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT 9 INDUSTRY SPECIFIC APPLICATIONS 10 LMS 11 DIGITALIZATION/DIGITAL MKTG 12 DESKTOP Global 1 BI/ANALYTICS 2 INFRASTRUCTURE & DATACENTER 3 MOBILE 4 ERP 5 CLOUD 6 NETWORKING, VOICE AND DATA COMMS 7 DIGITALIZATION/DIGITAL MKTG 8 SECURITY 9 INDUSTRY SPECIFIC APPLICATIONS 10 CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT 11 LEGACY MODERNIZATION 12 COLLABORATION Ranking Based on How Many CIOs Cited Each as a Top-Three New Spending Priority for 2014 Educause top 10 trends, 2013 (2014 in March) 1. Access demand 2. Improving student outcomes 3. Cloud strategy 4. IT staffing models 5. Information security 6. Funding IT strategically 7. Sustainable online learning 8. IT consumerization and BYOD 9. Using IT transformatively 10.Analytics to support institutional outcome #GartnerSYM © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Educause Strategic Technologies for 2014 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Business intelligence reporting dashboards Mobile apps for enterprise applications Mobile app development Enterprise identity and access management solutions Learning analytics: Course level Administrative or business performance analytics Unified communications and collaboration 802.11ac wireless networking standard Virtual desktops or virtual PC applications Learning analytics: Degree advising #GartnerSYM © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Horizon Report 2014 • Fast moving trends (1-2 years) - Online, hybrid, and collaborative learning - Social media use in learning • Mid-range trends (3-5 years) - The creator society - Data-driven learning and assessment • Slow trends (5 years and beyond) - Agile approaches to change - Making online learning natural #GartnerSYM © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Horizon Report Educational Technology 2014 • Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year or Less - Flipped Classroom - Learning Analytics • Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two to Three Years - 3D Printing - Games and Gamification • Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Four to Five Years - Quantified Self - Virtual Assistants #GartnerSYM © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. IEEE 2014 1. Mobile cloud convergence will lead to an explosion of new services. 2. Internet of Things will evolve into the Web of Things, increasing the coordination between things in the real world and their counterparts on the Web. 3. New analytics tools will emerge to handle the big data deluge and new leaders will emerge in this arena in 2014. 4. New tools and techniques will bring 3D printing power to corporations and the masses. 5. Online courses demand new technological approaches. 6. Mobile infrastructure must catch up with user needs and demands. 7. New risks and concerns about social network privacy. 8. Intelligent systems and assistive devices will advance smart healthcare. 9. Agencies will attempt to tackle e-government interoperability issues. 10. Scientific cloud computing will further change how science is done to help solve "grand challenges." #GartnerSYM © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. IBM 5 in 5 • The classroom will learn you. The classroom of the future will give educators the tools to learn about every student, and provide students with a tailored curriculum from kindergarten to high school and on to employment. • Your local store will be better than a store on the web. Your local store will use the immediacy of the store experience and proximity to customers to create experiences that cannot be replicated by online-only retail. • Doctors will use your DNA to keep you well. Doctors will create individualized treatment plans for thousands of patients based on genome sequencing. • The city will help you live in it. Cities will better understand in real time how to better manage billions of events occurring within their boundaries to make themselves more liveable and sustainable environments for their citizens. • A digital guardian angel will protect you online. Your digital security bodyguard will act as an intelligent agent across all your devices, IDs and transactions to help determine what’s legitimate and what’s not. #GartnerSYM © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Recommended Gartner Research Agenda Overview for Higher Education, 2014 (G00258317) Hype Cycle for Education, 2013 (G00251104) IT Market Clock for Higher Education, 2013 (G00251103) Predicts 2014: Technology Drives Education Toward Transformation (G00258319 ) The Expanding Education Ecosystem: A World of Choice (G00228925) The Gartner Higher Education Business Model Scenarios: Digitalization Drives Disruptive Innovation and Changes the Balance (G00247129) Cool Vendors in Education, 2011-13 A Quick Look at the Nexus of Forces in Education (G00255220) A Quick Look at Big Data in Education, 2012 (G00236687) Gaining Competitive Advantage in the Education Ecosystem Requires Going Beyond Mere Infrastructure to Exostructure (G00251105) #GartnerSYM © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.