THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN,
NATIONAL SYSTEM OF INNOVATION AND
HIGHER EDUCATION
The Second HESA Biennial Research and Innovation Conference
Michael Kahn
Stellenbosch University, Matieland 7602
mikejkahn@gmail.com
Research and Innovation Associates
HSBC: The World in 2050
China #1
United States #2
India #3
Brazil #7 (wrong! It’s already #6)
Egypt #19 (that’s before the Arab Spring!)
ZA # 30 (down from #28)
South Africa: three crises and three economies
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Crisis of exclusion: poverty
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Crisis of growth: globalization and technological change
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Crisis of the environment: going grey, not green
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Economy 1: Formal and wealthy ~ like Norway, but
warmer
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Economy 2: Informal and poor ~ unquantified
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Economy 3: Offshore ~ the ‘Brand’ Trek over the Limpopo
London
Houston
Perth
Cape Town
Bits of the puzzle…
Employment in Mining
Employment in Agriculture
Composition of GDP
Agriculture
Mining
Manufacturing
Services
So where to?
A national innovation system is ….
INFORMAL
SECTOR
BUSINESS
UNIVERSITIES
UTILITIES
55 GOVT. DEPTS
INSTITUTES & MUSEUMS
9 SCIENCE
COUNCILS
S&T SERVICES
100s NGOs
A missing piece
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Korea 343 USPTO patents over 1963 to 1987
ZA 1744 USPTO patents over 1963 to 1987
Korea 57625 USPTO patents over 1987 to 2008
ZA 2232 USPTO patents over 1987 to 2008
Norway 3898 USPTO patents over 1987 to 2008
•There is no IP in an ingot of gold or a tonne of coal
•High tech exports comprise small volume of exports
•Our manufacturers seek technology via foreign partners
•What are we going to be doing differently?
Enhancing competitiveness in the Platinum Group Mining cluster
MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY
Haulage
Refrigeration , generators & compressors
Jewelery
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
Electronic detonators
Sensors
Simulation
Tomography
Control systems
Remote sensing
EXPLORATION
Geotechnology
Mapping
ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY
Water management
Chemical recycling
Zero emission technologies
MARKETS
Mining technology
Project management expertise
BIOTECHNOLOGY
Bioleaching
Biodegration
CHEMICAL TECHNOLOGY
Surfactants
Flocculants
Explosives
CATALYSTS & FINE
CHEMICALS
Auto catalysts
Fuel cell catalysts
Pharamceuticals
Korea – GERD/GDP; BERD/GERD
From 0,8% to 1,5% => from 18500 to 41500 researchers
Thanda Bantu…
Full-time equivalent researchers
Ensure policy consistency
Sub-output 5.1.3: Increase the output of doctoral
graduates to 1,350 per annum by 2014.
From Apartheid Development State to Lean
State to Developmental State II?
RDP
GEAR
ASGISA …..
The New Growth Path
(The Nationalization Debate)
Industrial Policy Action Plan 1,2,3
Green Paper on PSET
Vision for 2030
A Development State is …
“A developmental state may be perceived as one that
“authoritatively, credibly, legitimately and in a binding manner
is able to formulate and implement its policies and
programmes. This entails possessing a developmentalist
ideology that privileges industrialization, economic growth and
expansion of human capabilities. Such a state also has to be
able to construct and deploy the institutional architecture within
the state and mobilize society towards the realization of its
developmentalist project. A developmental state is therefore
defined in political, ideological and institutional terms.”
(ECA, 2011).
NPC diagnostic
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Too few South Africans work
The quality of school education for most black people is sub-standard
Poorly located and inadequate infrastructure limits social inclusion
and faster economic growth
Spatial challenges continue to marginalise the poor
South Africa’s growth path is highly resource-intensive and hence
unsustainable
The ailing public health system confronts a massive disease burden
The performance of the public service is uneven
Corruption undermines state legitimacy and service delivery
South Africa remains a divided society
Where are the new policies taking us?
New Growth Path: A Workers Utopia where the
Competition Commission levels the playing field
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Industrial
Strategy tries to be all things to all people;
lacks focus; weak understanding of innovation
Green
Paper on PSET is supply side driven; weak
understanding of innovation; inclusion is the main object
Year Innovation Plan – also supply side driven– has
captured the research and innovation policy space –
deferred to by NGP, IPAP, PSET and NPC
Ten
Concerned scientists submission to NPC …
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Much can be achieved with existing technologies. It is not so
much a case of a poverty of technology, as a poverty of
politics.
Constructing and implementing solutions requires analytic and
technical skill, careful navigation of political constraints, and
willingness to learn from one’s mistakes.
Technology, through the digital revolution, plays a
considerable part in detecting and promoting corruption, and
in service delivery.
Morality and shared values go to the heart of healing our
national divides. The social sciences and humanities play the
key role in understanding and perhaps mitigating these issues.
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Ours is a small science and innovation system comparable with
Norway, whose population is ten times smaller. But Norway has
25,000 FTE researchers compared with our 19,000. In 2007
we produced 5045 scientific publications; Norway 6815. In
1990 USPTO awards were 115 for both; Norway is now 240,
while we are still at 116. Norway’s output of PhDs/million of
population was 151, compared with our 27. One exception is
the registration of plant cultivars where we are internationally
competitive. SET graduates currently comprise 20% of the
total.
This should rise to 40% over the next ten to fifteen years.
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To revitalize postgraduate training we must raise investment
levels, hire and retain the best staff, and hunt for this talent
locally and globally. We note that our salaries are globally
competitive, which implies that the search is one that perhaps
requires but a political nod. A sustained and well-funded
campaign to train graduates in specific skills, locally and
abroad, must be instituted, especially in new and emerging
technologies. In order to reduce churn or dropout such a
campaign should include measures to build social cohesion in
the academic enterprise.
Suspend immigration restrictions for the highly skilled
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Enhancing higher (vocational and further) education pivots on
well-functioning schools that provide quality education in
science, mathematics and technology to boys and girls in a
well-rounded curriculum.
Re-establish the Dinaledi Academies under DHET
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One of the tasks of government is to ensure the enabling
environment that nurtures such creativity, especially regarding
intellectual property rights, an essential step in
commercialization. Intangibles require different regulations to
the tangibles of physical capital and money.
Review IPR legislation to remove disincentives
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Foster local design and production especially in capital goods
- heavy industry, including energy-efficient power station
generators and heat exchangers, locomotives, ships and new
generation airships for moving people and heavy loads. This
would require cooperation among state-owned enterprises,
science councils, the private sector and higher education. At
least two policy issues call for attention - ensuring access to
local raw materials at prices near cost.
Stipulate that consortia with foreign firms include local
production and technology transfer requirements.
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Enabling people to live with dignity in affordable, fire resistant
shelter, near to sources of employment and with access to safe
transport is a sine qua non and not rocket science.
Human settlement is a socio-economic and political process,
and an engineering issue
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For the next few decades commodities will dominate the
economy. In the same way that infrastructure development may
foster industrial diversification, so too for the minerals base.
One appreciates the issue of economies of scale, yet remains
perplexed to see steel coil sail away and motor car door
panels return.
Local must be lekker
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The overarching project must be the war on poverty, in all its
manifestations: access to services, shelter, safety, and economic
and social opportunity. This would necessitate an agency with
the sole remit to steer, plan and coordinate such a drive, and
for it to be staffed with the high-skilled visionaries who can see
the opportunities of the contemporary era and have the
flexibility, authority and integrity to take the considered risks
that make for such innovation.
Declare war on poverty, under a general staff
that coordinates the science and innovation
system
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In our view IPAP is too broad, apparently seeking to make
everyone happy. To plan is to choose, and IPAP has not been
sharp enough in going for capital goods that are central to the
First Economy. Allied to this should be intensification of niche
manufacturing and services activities such as catalysis,
telemetry, encryption and software engineering.
Build the capital goods sector
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Support the Third Economy, and build the African common
market, in all its manifestations, water, mining, manufacturing
and services. This would necessitate government and the
private sector operating synergistically in the international
domain. Such rapprochement can but benefit the domestic
economy as well. The project requires skilful diplomacy across
the equator and the South Atlantic, and includes tangible, if not
essential scientific cooperation in response to climate change,
and food and water security.
Food and water security, with mitigation of
climate change is the third national project
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Resuscitate capacity in Foresight
A Presidential Council on Science and Innovation should
replace NACI. The Council will be provided with professional
research support that will ensure that prioritization and
agenda setting are carried out with rigour and vigour, that
resources are allocated to a well-defined set of major
initiatives, and that the institutional landscape is fit for purpose.
PCRI will cover all facets of innovation – technological, social,
public sector, education, and (promote) accountability,
transparency and responsiveness.
Establish aPresidential Council on Science &
Innovation
Higher education …
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Vision for 2030 scopes many of the right things!!!!
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Celebrate SARChI, the CoEs and ESASTAP !!!!
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Celebrate and insist on openness
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Re-think the meaning of the majority classroom
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Investigate the impact of social class
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Remain focused on core competences: “The most
important impacts (of higher education) are of an indirect
nature, such as through the supply of highly educated and
skilled personnel” (Fagerberg, 2006). Build the SET base.
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Work with the National Planning Commission to realize
Vision for 2030
We bring the African ball to the BRIC Club
(EU)
RUSSIA
(USA)
CHINA & INDIA
BRAZIL
Services
Resources
SOUTH AFRICA
HR