The Commission’s terms of reference
” The Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy is to examine how
Denmark can reduce and ultimately eliminate dependency on fossil
fuels in the long term. The Climate Commission shall describe how to
implement this long-term vision.”
The Climate Commission’s deliberations should take the following criteria into
consideration:
1.
Reducing the emission of greenhouse gases
2.
Increasing energy efficiency
3.
Maintaining the high security of energy supply
4.
Ensuring macroeconomic cost-effectiveness by using market-based
solutions
5.
Continuing a high level of economic growth
6.
Ensuring positive business development and promoting international
competitiveness of business in Denmark
7.
Ensuring environmentally sustainable development.
Composition of the Commission
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Katherine Richardson (chairperson), Professor and Vice-Dean at the University of
Copenhagen
Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Professor at the University of Copenhagen
Jørgen Elmeskov, Director of the Policy Studies Branch of the OECD Economics Department
Cathrine Hagem, Senior Researcher with Statistics Norway
Jørgen Henningsen, Previously Director in the European Commission
John A. Korstgård, Professor and Head of Department at Aarhus University
Niels Buus Kristensen, Head of Department for DTU Transport at the Technical University of
Denmark
Poul Erik Morthorst, Research Specialist at Risø DTU, the National Laboratory for Sustainable
Energy at the Technical University of Denmark
Jørgen E. Olesen, Research Professor at University of Aarhus
Mette Wier, Executive Director of AKF, Danish Institute of Governmental Research
21 meetings. Scientific analyses. Documentation can be found on:
www.klimakommissionen.dk
mb/d
Challenge: Great pressure on ressources of oil and natural gas
120
Natural gas liquids
Non-conventional oil
100
80
Crude oil - yet to be
developed (inc. EOR)
or found
60
Crude oil - currently
producing fields
40
20
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Half of the world’s
demand for oil in
2030 is yet to be
developed or
found.
• Rising prices
• Great
uncertainty
• Oil and natural
gas limited to
few sources
Challenge: Fossil fuels make up the bulk of carbon emissions.
An effort is necessary here in order to achieve the goal
Current
emissions
70,00
50,00
40,00
30,00
EU target
Fossil fuels
GHG-emissions, Mio. t/y
60,00
Emissions from fossil
fuels in the energy sector
Other emissions
20,00
80 %
reduction
10,00
0,00
2008
80% reduction
TWO GOALS FOR THE COMMISSION
Independence from oil,
coal and natural gas
Ambitious climate goal
Renewable energy
can cover
Denmark’s energy
needs.
Derived from EU’s
target of 80-95 %
reduction of
emissions by 2050
THE COMMISSION’S PRINCIPLES
Economic growth will continue
”Denmark is not an island”
Independence should be obtained with the
lowest possible societal cost
There are no chosen technologies.
”Market choice rather than command and control”
Biomass gives opportunities and challenges
The Commission’s Results
• Denmark can become independent of fossil fuels by 2050.
• Even as our energy demand doubles.
• The technology is available today, but more will become
available.
• Small additional cost as continued dependence on fossil fuels
will become an expensive habit.
Our energy needs will rise, but there are ample
renewable ressources
300
Pct. of total energy needs covered in 2050
Wind can cover
energy needs 2 ½
times.
250
200
150
100
50
0
Total energy need
Potential wind
power
Potential solar
power
Potential from
biomass and
waste
STRATEGY WITH TWO ELEMENTS
1. We need to use energy more effectively. Technological
solutions and investments have a large potential
More effective energy use by 2050 relative to today
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Heating
Appliances
Transport
Industry and
agriculture
We can
halve the
amount of
energy that
we use on
household
appliances
relative to
today
STRATEGY WITH TWO ELEMENTS
2. The energy of the future will come from renewable sources
THE ENERGY SYSTEM OF THE FUTURE
The remaining emissions derive primarily from the
agricultural sector
THE COMMISSION’S 40 RECOMMENDATIONS
GENERAL
• That a new tax be introduced on fossil fuels, which will ensure
that market mechanisms become the drivers of change. A
clear message on the gradual, projected increase of the tax
provides a secure environment for investment decisions
• Funding for research and development to be maintained at
current years level. With stable funding over 5-10 yr. intervals.
THE COMMISSION’S 40 RECOMMENDATIONS
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• A new ”energy savings account” introduced for all buildings.
The account is linked to the individual building. The lower the
building’s energy efficiency the higher will be its required
saving. The savings are available for projects, which improve
the building’s energy efficiency.
• Higher incentives for the use of heat pumps.
• No new oil heaters after 2015.
THE COMMISSION’S 40 RECOMMENDATIONS
TRANSPORT
• Duty reductions on electric cars extended after 2015 until a
critical mass of 100,000 cars is reached. Duty reductions to
encompass plug-in hybrids.
• A single plan for an infrastructure to allow charging of electric
cars.
• Demonstration of the use of biogas in heavy load transport
THE COMMISSION’S 40 RECOMMENDATIONS
THE TOTAL ENERGY SYSTEM
• A complete plan for an intelligent electrical grid in Danmark
(smartgrid)
• Extension of offshore wind turbine capacity with 200 MW/yr.
from 2015 to 2025.
THE COMMISSION’S 40 RECOMMENDATIONS
OTHER
• Strengthened international effort for continued energy
efficiency improvements.
• Effort in relation to other sources of greenhouse gases
(primarily from agriculture)
• A statutory framework for the vision of Denmark becoming
independent of fossil fuels complemented with regular
reviews of progress towards the ultimate goal.
The extra price tag for independence is small
250
GNP in 2050 – with and without fossil
fuels (index 2008=100)
200
2050
without
fossil fuels
150
100
50
0
2008
2050 with
fossil fuels
Consumers will pay about the same
Difference in price of electricity with and
without wind power
(Dkr. per. kWh in 2050)
Despite our energy needs doubling by
2050 the total cost for heating,
transport and energy will remain the
same as today.
3
2
1
Primarily due to gains from energy
efficiency.
0
Consumer price
with wind power
Consumer price
without wind
power
Conversion can create growth
• Denmark is in a position of strength within the fields of green
energy and energy efficiency. But the world is on the move.
• Rising investment can increase growth.
• Enery costs make up on average 4 pct. of the cost of doing
business in Denmark (more for some companies)
• Total energy costs are expected to fall as a share of the total
costs of doing business by 2050
THE ROAD TO INDEPENDENCE MUST START NOW
• The conversion represents a revolution of our energy
system.
• It takes time to reshape our energy system.
• If we wait the cost may well rise.