By Julien Grollier
The challenge ahead
Food security

one of the main challenges in East Africa
Global warming


will change agricultural and trade patterns
add an additional 600 million hungry people by
2080 in sub-Saharan Africa
Way forward


Harnessing the potential of trade to ensure
affordable food for millions of people
Putting in place appropriate policies to achieve
this
Need of the hour
 Develop understanding of how climate change,
food security and trade interact
Food Security and
Agriculture in East Africa
The region is
• Has a huge potential and capacity to produce enough food
for regional consumption and a large surplus for export to the
world market
YET, it is
• Heavily dependent on agriculture sector for revenue,
employment and food security
• Frequently affected by serious food shortages
• Paradoxically, while 8 in 10 people rely on agriculture for
their living, about 4 in 10 are undernourished
SOME CAUSES
 High variability in production due to high variability of
weather (climate change)
 Inadequate food trade between surplus and deficit areas
8 in 10 East Africans
depend on
agriculture for their
living
19%
31%
38%
66%
44%
 Low agricultural productivity
 Price volatility
SHARE OF POPULATION
 Land availability and access
UNDERNOURISHED IN EAC COUNTRIES
State of Food Security and
Agriculture in East Africa
Some Indicators
Food Trade in East
Africa
EVOLUTION OF EAC TRADE IN CEREALS
(2003-2007)
EAC region is increasingly
dependent on cereal imports.
Positive total Balance of Payment is
due to production of export crops like
tea, coffee, horticulture etc.
SHARE OF INTRAREGIONAL FOOD
TRADE IN TOTAL
There is potential for much greater intraregional food trade, particularly when it can
contribute to better regional food security
in the food scarce regions
Implications of climate
change in the region
Expected impact of climate change in the region
include:

More floods and droughts

Increased sea levels leading to changed ecology of coastal
areas

Altered eco-systems of lakes leading to less fish catches

Less supportive conditions for the production of current
staple food crops

Less agricultural and food production, leading to higher
prices

Changes in patterns of production, including in fisheries,
and hence changing patterns of trade
However, some specific studies indicate that the impact
of climate change may be positive and negative
depending on the crops.
Implications of climate
change in the region
Climate change will change the pattern
and magnitude of precipitation leading
to changing patterns of production and
trade.
The poor and marginalized, both rural
and urban, are expected to face the
worst consequences.
CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY INDEX
2011
Trade: part of the solution ?
Opportunities for Food
Security
 Increased availability and affordability of staple
food
 Generation of export revenue from non-food
products will facilitate food imports for food
scarce regions
 Increased livelihood options and demand for
labour and business opportunities in transport,
processing, trading, etc
 Greater production efficiencies and lower
prices for both urban and rural consumers.
Trade: part of the solution ?
Opportunities for Food
Security
 Niche export crops are labour intensive and
create new livelihoods for poor producers despite
climate change
 WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) allows
expenditure by developing country governments
to maintain food security stocks (not treated as a
subsidy)
 Gradual liberalization of services in developing
countries under GATS can facilitate the availability
of better infrastructural services, thus improving
competitiveness
Trade: part of the solution ?
Opportunities for Climate
Change
 trade can be part of the climate change mitigation
and adaptation strategies

e.g, by encouraging trade in organic products, use of
energy-efficient transportation, increasing regional trade etc.
 trade can increase the availability of resources and
technologies to plan and implement mitigation and
adaptation policies
 The linkages between trade and climate change are
little understood and need to be investigated
Trade: Some challenges
to be addressed
 Subsidized food production in OECD countries are
allowed by the WTO Agreement on Agriculture
(AoA) and can depress international food prices
discourages investment in EAC food production
 cheap food imports can displace domestic production,
particularly by small and subsistence farmers.

 Trade liberalization measures might lead to
immediate increase in imports rather than exports
Trade: Some challenges to
be addressed
 Increased exports can disproportionately
affect subsistence farmers, mostly
women
 Lower revenues through customs duties
might reduce resources to deal with
 food security challenges
 climate change challenges
 Higher volumes of trade can directly
contribute to larger greenhouse gas
emissions
Trade: Some challenges to
be addressed
 The linkages between trade and climate change are
little understood and need to be investigated
 No mandatory provision against export prohibitions
in AoA, whereby a country willing to ensure
domestic food security impacts that of other
countries negatively
 Strict global standards for patents and lack of
protection of bio-diversity, genetic resources and
traditional knowledge under the TRIPs Agreement

can potentially impede the transfer of required
mitigation/adaptation technologies to EAC countries at
affordable prices.
EAC Institutional and Policy
framework
EAC countries are conscious of the challenges
related to food security , climate change and trade.
They have strived to develop regional policies to
deal with them, including:

EAC Common Market Protocol, which entered into force in
July 2010. It provides for free movement of labour, goods,
services, capital, and the right of establishment within the
EAC.

Preparations towards the establishment of an East African
Monetary Union by 2012

The EAC Food Security Action Plan (2011-2015), which
serves as a guide to the implementation and actualization
of the regional food security objective

The EAC Climate Change Policy, which is being
implemented

A Climate Change Master Plan and Strategy is being
Remaining gaps and
Capacity Building Needs

No regional policy addresses all three
issues in an inclusive manner

Limited capacity of the EAC Secretariat to
comprehensively examine climate change,
food security, and trade issues, and hence
to develop adequate and holistic policy
responses in consultation with relevant
stakeholders

Region-wide, multi-stakeholder networks
(comprising governmental, private sector,
civil society, and academia representatives
from all EAC countries) that are crucial for
this endeavour have not been fully
developed
Remaining gaps and
Capacity Building Needs

Although EAC countries are active
participants in international trade and are
members of the WTO, they do not formally
coordinate their negotiating positions

More regular participation of EAC
Secretariat in UNFCCC meetings will greatly
help in coordination of EAC countries’
positions and hence improving their
negotiating strength
Thank You