Assessing climate change risk
Introduction
Welcome & Acknowledgement
Background
[Insert Council logo]
• Workshops  action plan
• General Manager’s support
Housekeeping
• Facilities, OH&S, Turn off mobiles
Introduction
Purpose
• Developing a Climate Change Action Plan
Program
• Keeping to time
• Respectful discussion
Introductions
Right: An action planning workshop
at The Hills Shire Council
Progress
Gain
internal
support
Identify Planning
Team
Steering Committee Meeting 1
-Develop a planning program
Workshop 1
-Introduction
Workshop 2
-Risk assessment
Steering Committee Meeting 2
-Research adaptation options
Workshop 3
-Adaptation
actions
Steering Committee 3
-Mitigation
Steering Committee
Meeting 5 -Review
Steering Committee
Meeting 4 -Action plan
Workshop 4
-Mitigation actions
Expected
outcomes
Participants will:
• Understand concepts of risk assessment
• Brainstorm/ undertake group work to:
– Identify potential risks to Council service areas
– Analyse risk statements to determine
preliminary levels of risk
– Evaluate risks to determine priorities
What is risk?
Level of Risk = Likelihood of an occurrence x
Consequence of that occurrence
What is the likelihood it will occur?
What are the potential consequences
of the occurrence?
© State of New South Wales
through the Department of Planning
Risk assessment
• AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009 Risk Management –
Principles and Guidelines
• Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management
– A Guide for Business and Government
Australian Greenhouse Office, 2006
Photo courtesy of Scott Lenton,
Clarence Valley Council
Risk assessment
Communicate & consult
Monitor & review
Establish
the context
- Objectives
- Stakeholders
- Success
criteria
- Climate
scenarios
Identify the
risks
- What can
happen
- How can it
happen
Analyse
the risks
- Review
controls
- Likelihood
-Consequence
- Level of risk
Risk Assessment
Evaluate
the risks
- Evaluate risks
- Prioritise risks
- Screen risks
Treat the
risks
- Identify
options
- Select the
best
- Develop
plans
- Implement
(AGO, 2006)
Establishing
the context
• Climate change scenarios
• Scope – activities; geographic boundaries; time
horizon
• Stakeholders – involvement & communication
• Framework for evaluating risks
• Organisation’s concerns
Photo courtesy of Scott Lenton,
Clarence Valley Council
Identification of risks
•
Understanding the links between climate change and risk
Climate Impact:
(e.g. Increased frequency of hot days)
Hazard associated with the impact:
(e.g. accelerated deterioration of buildings)
Consequence of hazard to Council objectives:
(e.g. increased maintenance costs to Council)
Risk statement:
“Increased frequency of hot days, leading to accelerated deterioration
of buildings resulting in increased maintenance costs to Council”
Examples
Climate impact
Increased frequency of hot days
Hazard associated with
impact
Increased energy
demand and
increased
brownouts
Increased indoor patronage
at Council community
centres
Increased
beach/pool
patronage
Increase in
heat related
illness for
outdoor staff
Decrease in
Council service
delivery
Increased service
requirements
Increased water
related injury
Increase in time
lost for stop work
orders
Further consequences to Council objectives may cascade from the above
Consequences of hazard
to Council objectives
Risk Statements
• Example of an adequate risk statement:
Increased frequency of hot days, leading to
accelerated deterioration of Council assets resulting
in increased maintenance costs to Council
• Example of a risk statement which may not be
detailed enough:
Increased hot days leading to increased
maintenance of buildings
It is not clear how the maintenance of buildings will
affect council activities
Identifying risks
Activity
• Divide into groups of 3 -5 people (different roles)
• You will be assigned a key element
• Think of all risks for the key element:
o
o
o
o
o
o
Service delivery
Related services and service providers
Personnel
General public
Systems and equipment
Administration and support
Identifying risks
….Activity continued….
•
•
•
•
Record all ideas
Aim for cause effect statements
Link risk statements to service objectives
Ensure risk statement will be understood by
staff who have not attended this workshop
Identifying risks
• Link risk statements to service objectives:
– Public safety
– Local economy and growth
– Community and lifestyle
– Environment and sustainability
– Public administration
Activity to be followed by break while facilitator
enters into spreadsheet
Analysis of
risk statements
Level of Risk = Likelihood of an occurrence x
Consequence of that occurrence
• Analysis should take into account controls including any current management regimes &
responses in place to control each risk.
Determining
consequence
• Consequence = “How bad is it likely to be”
• Risks can affect Council in many different ways
depending on objectives (Success Criteria)
• Success Criteria suggested by the AGO (2006):
– Public safety
– Local economy and growth
– Community and lifestyle
– Environment and sustainability **Replace with Council
risk framework if
– Public administration
applicable**
Determining
consequence
Public Safety
Rating
Catastrophic Large number of
injury or loss of life
Major
Isolated instances
of serious injury or
loss of life
Moderate
Small number of
injury
Minor
Serious near
misses or minor
injuries
Success Criteria
Community and
Environment and
lifestyle
sustainability
The region would be
Major widespread loss
seen as very
of environmental
unattractive, moribund amenity and
and unable to support progressive
its community
irrecoverable
environmental damage
Regional stagnation such Severe and
Severe loss of
that businesses are unable widespread decline in environmental amenity
to thrive and employment services and quality of and a danger of
does not keep pace with
life within the
continuing
population growth
community
environmental damage
Local economy and
growth
Regional decline leading to
widespread business
failure, loss of employment
and hardship
Public administration
Public administration
would fall into decay
and cease to be
effective
Public administration
would struggle to
remain effective and
would be seen to be in
danger of failing
completely
Significant general
General appreciable
Isolated but significant Public administration
reduction in economic
decline in services
instances of
would be under
performance relative to
environmental damage pressure on several
current forecasts
that might be reversed fronts
with intensive efforts
Individually significant but Isolated but noticeable Minor instances of
Isolated instances of
isolated areas of reduction examples of decline in environmental damage public administration
in economic performance services
that could be reversed being under severe
relative to current forecasts
pressure
Insignificant Appearance of a
Minor shortfall relative to
threat but no actual current forecasts
harm
There would be minor No environmental
areas in which the
damage
region was unable to
maintain its current
services
**Replace with Council risk framework if applicable**
There would be minor
instances of public
administration being
under more than usual
stress but it could be
managed
Other success
criteria
A level that would
constitute a complete
failure
A level that would
constitute a major
problem close to
complete failure
A significant issue
which may be
reversed with major
efforts
No significant harm,
but should be
considered to prevent
further escalation
A level that would
attract no additional
attention or resources
Determining
likelihood
Likelihood rating
Recurrent Risks
Single Events
Almost Certain
May occur several times a year
>50% chance of occurring
Likely
May occur around once a year
50% chance of occurring
Possible
May occur once every 10 years
<50% chance of occurring
Unlikely
May arise once in 10 - 25years
>0% chance of occurring
Rare
Unlikely in the next 25 years
Close to 0% change of
occurring
**Replace with Council risk framework if applicable**
Analysing risks
Level of Risk = Likelihood of an occurrence x Consequence of that
occurrence
Likelihood
Consequence
Insignificant
Minor
Moderate
Major
Catastrophic
Almost Certain
Medium
Medium
High
Extreme
Extreme
Likely
Low
Medium
High
High
Extreme
Possible
Low
Medium
Medium
High
High
Unlikely
Low
Low
Medium
Medium
Medium
Rare
Low
Low
Low
Low
Medium
**Replace with Council risk framework if applicable**
• Any questions?
Analysing risks
Activities:
• Analysing each risk statement – using the
Risk Assessment Tool
• Prioritising risk statements – can be
completed after the workshop by the
Steering Committee
Risk Assessment
Tool
Controls
• Council’s current controls are considered when
determining the likelihood and consequence of
each risk statement
• Only measures that are already in place can be
considered as controls
• Examples: routine monitoring and repair
systems, existing levees, incentive programs
Achievements
from the workshop
During the workshop we have:
• Developed a list of detailed risk statements
relevant to Council service areas
• Analysed risk statements to determine
preliminary levels of risk
• Evaluated risks to develop a list of priority risk
statements to be addressed in the climate
change action plan
Conclusion
• Thank you
• Evaluation forms
References
• AGO, 2006, Climate Change Impacts and Risk
Management – A Guide for Business and Government.
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/community/~/media/pu
blications/local-govt/risk-management.ashx
• Australian and New Zealand Standard AS/NZS 4360:
2004 Risk Management.
• AS/NZS ISO 31000: 2009 Risk Management – Principles
and guidelines.