IANAS 2nd Energy Meeting – Bogotá, Colombia 9-10 June 2011 Bioenergy strategy: the LACAF/GSB project Luís Cortez Professor UNICAMP Vice Coordinator of Special Programs- FAPESP 1 Presentation 1. Introduction 2. Presentation LACAF/GSB project collaboration: - GSB tasks - LACAF structure - LACAF/GSB/IANAS collaboration Global Sustainable Bioenergy project-GSB Board: Prof. Carlos Henrique de Brito Cruz, Fapesp, Brazil (Chairman) Prof. Luuk van der Viellen, T.U. Delft, The Netherlands Dr. Martin Keller, Oak Ridge Laboratory, USA Executive Committee: Prof. Lee Lynd, Darthmouth College, USA Prof. Patricia Osseweijer, T.U. Delft, The Netherlands Prof. Luís Cortez, UNICAMP, Brazil 3 GSB tasks • • • • • • • • • Task 1. Task 2. Task 3. Task 4. Task 5. Task 6. Task 7. Task 8. Task 9. Current land inventory Pasture intensification Double crops Change animal feed rations Dietary choice & food supply chain efficiency Energy crop productivity Food security Fertilizer demand, residue utilization, and soil fertility Integrated analysis GSB Stage 2 Tasks Current Land Inventory (Foundation for other tasks) Potential Levers Fostering large scale bioenergy production Available Task 2 Pasture Land intensification (Quantity Task 3 & quality) Double crops Task 4 Changed animal feed rations Literature Burned/disturbed land Potential Levers or/and Constraints Demand Productivity of food/feed crops Task 6 Bioenergy Crop Productivity Task 9 Integrated Analysis Tons Conversion (Literature) Task 5 Dietary choice & food supply chain efficiency Bioenergy Production Potential (Quantity & quality) Land Required For Food Production Literature Potential/Perceived Showstoppers Task 7 Food security impacts Fertilizer demand Task 8 impacts Fuel & electricity demand and efficiency of utilization (literature) Whether/How Showstoppers Can be Avoided Land Availability for bioenergy in Latin America and Africa Sources: FAOSTAT (2008), IICA (2009), www.eclac.org. 2009 6 Food (Grains) and Energy (Gasoline) Dependence in Latin America Food Independence and Gasoline Dependence Pasture and Prairie Land (Mha) Paraguay - 16 Argentina - 100 Export - Import / Consumption Agricultural (in)dependence - Grains 100% Food and Gasoline Independence Brazil - 196 Argentina - 100 50% Colombia - 39 Mexico - 75 Brazil - 196 Peru - 17 Bolivia - 33 0% Nicaragua - 3 Bolivia - 33 Peru - 17 Guatemala - 2 Guatemala - 2 Costa Rica - 1 Nicaragua - 3 -50% Mexico - 75 Costa Rica - 1 -100% -100% Colombia - 39 Cuba - 3 Food Dependence and Gasoline Independence Food and Gasoline Dependence Jamaica - 0.2 Guyana - 1 Jamaica - 0.2 Paraguay - 16 Cuba - 3 0% 100% Energy (in)dependence - Gasoline Export - Import / Consumption Source: FAO and IEA 7 Ethanol production in Latin America Source: USDA, 2010 8 Latin America & Caribbean and Africa LACAF project 1. Diagnosis of Energy and Food Situation in LA and AF & Integrated analysis Coordinator: Luiz Augusto Horta Nogueira (UNIFEI) – Why should Latin American and African countries get involved in a global effort to increase biofuels production? – How can countries in LA and AF implement the necessary actions: the cases of Colombia, Guatemala, South Africa and Mozambique? – What is the present and expected future situation of energy and food security in Latin America and Africa? – Integrating analysis for AL and AF LACAF project 2. Determining the Physical Potential for Sugarcane Ethanol Production in Latin America and Africa Coordinator: André Nassar (ICONE) – Identify potential areas to sugarcane production in African and Latin American countries; (CTC team) – Quantify the different production potential of sugarcane crops in these countries; (CTC team) – Assess the land use impacts of biofuels production in Latin America and Africa: the cases of Colombia, South Africa and Mozambique – Use a Sugarcane Crop Model and Estimate Total Sugarcane Ethanol Production in LA and AF LACAF project 3. Crop and Pasture Productivity, Improving Soil Fertility and Needs for Fertilizers Coordinator: Heitor Cantarella (APTA/IAC) – Analyzing the Increase Productivity in Agriculture: Pasture Productivity (Geraldo Martha), Sugarcane Expansion with Pasture Integration – Analyzing the Possible Impact of Advanced Technologies in Agriculture: precision agriculture, no-till, soil conditioning – Estimating the Future Inorganic Fertilizer Demand and Recycling Nutrients in Sugarcane Ethanol Production LACAF project 4. Production Models & Innovation Coordinator: Manoel Regis Lima Verde Leal (CTBE) – Defining Possible Production Models for LA and AF – Analyzing the Possible Impact of Advanced Technologies in Conversion: Celullosic ethanol, energy cane LACAF project 5. Assessing the Constraints and Benefits of sugarcane ethanol production in LA and AF Coordinator: José Antonio Scaramucci (NIPE/UNICAMP) – Agriculture and energy issues analysis in Latin America and Africa – Scenarios for future demand of food and its impacts on land use – Economic analysis of the advancement of sugarcane bioenergy in Latin America and Africa: the cases of Colombia, Guatemala, South Africa and Mozambique – Impacts on socio-economic development from Sugarcane Ethanol Production Latin America and Africa: the cases of Colombia, South Africa and Mozambique Sugarcane Ethanol in Latin America Colombia: • The world’s second-largest sugarcane ethanol producer • Governmental regulations established a mandatory blend (E10) • Current ethanol production covers 85% of the local needs • Colombia has a great potential for sugarcane ethanol production in the East part of the country (expected lower yield than Cauca Valley) Guatemala: • Number one producer of sugarcane in Central America • In 2009, Guatemala produced 2.38 million tons of raw sugar, of which 1.3 million tons were exported • 5 out of the 14 sugar mills are also producing ethanol, whose production reached 265 million liters in 2008 • All of the ethanol is exported, mainly to Europe and the U.S. • The domestic market for biofuels consumption has not been developed yet Sources: IICA (2009); USDA (2010) 14 Collaboration LACAF-GSB Coordination of tasks Role in the LACAF Project Coordinator of Subproject 2: Land Use and determining LA and AF Bioenergy potential Role in the GSB project Coordinator task 1: Current Land Inventory a) Global land use inventory b) Local (e.g. country-scale) validation Edgar Beauclair (Esalq/USP, Brazil) Sugarcane Model Jeremy Woods (IC, UK) Food Security, Food VS Biofuels Coordinator task 6: Energy crop productivity Multi-crop global energy crop productivity model Analyst task 3: Double crops a) Global double crop productivity model b) Local validation Coordinator task 7: Food security Analysis of conditions under which bioenergy positively and negatively impacts food security André Nassar (ICONE, Brazil) Heitor Cantarella (APTA, Coordinator of Subproject 3: Brazil) Fertilizer Demand Coordinator task 8: Fertilizer demand and soil fertility a) Comparative analysis of fertilizer requirements for various energy crops b) More detailed analysis of specific aspects Collaboration LACAF-GSB Analysts of tasks Keith Kleine (ORNL, USA) Land Use and determining LA and AF Bioenergy potential Analyst task 1: Current Land Inventory a) Global land use inventory b) Local (e.g. country-scale) validation Geraldo Martha (Embrapa, Brazil) Analyst task 2: 2. Pasture productivity a) Global pasture productivity model and estimation of the pasture yield gap b) Local (e.g. country-scale) validation Analyst task 4: Changed animal feed rations Analysis of 2 to 4 examples Analyst task 4: Changed animal feed rations Analysis of 2 to 4 examples Analyst task 6: Energy crop productivity Multi-crop global energy crop productivity model Analyst task 3: Double crops a) Global double crop productivity model b) Local validation Pasture Productivity Miguel Taube (UNISOMA, Sugarcane-Beef Integration Brazil) Luis Pinto (UNISOMA, Brazil) Sugarcane-Beef Integration Fabio Marin (Embrapa, Brazil) Sugarcane Model Collaboration LACAF-GSB Analysts of tasks Durval Dourado (Esalq/USP, Brazil) Sugarcane Model Raffaella Rossetto (IAC/APTA, Brazil) Fertilizer Demand, Nutrient recycling Oscar Braunbeck (CTBE, Brazil) Advanced Technologies in Agriculture: precision agriculture, no-till, soil conditioning Paulo Sérgio Graziano Magalhães (UNICAMP, Brazil) Advanced Technologies in Agriculture: precision agriculture, no-till, soil conditioning Antonio Bonomi (CTBE, Brazil) Advanced Technologies in Agriculture: precision agriculture, no-till, soil conditioning Analyst task 6: Energy crop productivity Multi-crop global energy crop productivity model Analyst task 3: Double crops a) Global double crop productivity model b) Local validation Analyst task 8: Fertilizer demand and soil fertility a) Comparative analysis of fertilizer requirements for various energy crops b) More detailed analysis of specific aspects Analyst task 8: Fertilizer demand and soil fertility a) Comparative analysis of fertilizer requirements for various energy crops b) More detailed analysis of specific aspects Analyst task 8: Fertilizer demand and soil fertility a) Comparative analysis of fertilizer requirements for various energy crops b) More detailed analysis of specific aspects Analyst task 8: Fertilizer demand and soil fertility a) Comparative analysis of fertilizer requirements for various energy crops b) More detailed analysis of specific aspects Collaboration LACAF-GSB Integrating Results Emile van Zyl (Stellenbosh University, South Africa) José Rincon (IANAS, Colciencias, Colombia) Luiz A. Horta Nogueira (UNIFEI, Brazil) Diagnosis and Integration in AF; Innovation Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints Diagnosis and Integration in LA Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints Coordinator of Subproject 1: Diagnosis and Integration in LA and AF Manoel Regis Leal Coordinator of Subproject 4: (CTBE, Brazil) Production Models and Innovation José Antonio Scaramucci Coordinator of Subproject 5: Socio(NIPE/UNICAMP, Brazil) Economic Evaluation Edmar Luiz Fagundes de Socio-Economic Evaluation Almeida (UFRJ. Brazil) José Maurício S. Bento Socio-Economic Evaluation (Esalq/USP, Brazil) Márcia Azanha Socio-Economic Evaluation (Esalq/USP, Brazil) Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints Collaboration LACAF-GSB Integrating Results Jean-Claude Autrey (ISSCT, Mauritius) Annie Chimphango (Stellenbosh University, South Africa) Francis Yamba (CEEEZ, Zambia) Laurent Corcodel (ERCane, Reunion Island) Francis Johnson (SEI, Sweden) V. Kafarov (UIS, Colombia) Frank Rosillo-Calle (IC, UK) Alexandre Strapasson (IC, UK) Leonard Sebio (UNICAMP, Brazil) Juan (UNICAMP, Brazil) Diagnosis and Integration in AF Diagnosis and Integration in AF; socio-economic aspects Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints Diagnosis and Integration in AF; socio-economic aspects Diagnosis and Integration in AF; socio-economic aspects Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints Diagnosis and Integration in AF; socio-economic aspects Diagnosis and Integration in LA Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints Diagnosis and Integration in LA and AF Diagnosis and Integration in LA and AF Diagnosis and Integration in AF Diagnosis and Integration in LA LACAF/GSB/IANAS Collaboration • Prof. José Rincón Martinez – Coordinator in Colombia and Guatemala •Partners in Colombia: •Colciencias •CENICAÑA •Universidad Insustrial de Santander (Prof. V. Kafarov) •Fedebiocombustibles •Partners in Guatemala: - CENGICAÑA LACAF/GSB/IANAS Collaboration • GSB tasks (defined) • LACAF structure (defined) • LACAF Teams (defined) • LACAF – GSB Collaboration (defined) • IANAS Collaboration • Other countries ? • Meetings? Sugarcane Bioethanol: R&D for Productivity and Sustainability • • • • • • Lauched Sept 2010 992 pages 76 chapters 139 authors Publisher: Ethanol PP Project: Sales by Amazon 1st Brazilian Bioenergy Science & Technology Conference - BBEST • Venue: Campos do Jordão, SP, Brazil • August 14-18, 2011 http://www.bbest.org.br/ 23