Oil vulnerability: managing the risk
Wally Wight ASPO Brisbane – 04 June 2013
Peak Oil,
Implications for planning
ASPO-Australia
Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Oil depletion’s impact on
human settlement is not new
 Global discovery peaked in 1964
 USA production peaked in 1971
 Canada (once considered inexhaustible) peaked in
1973
 Australia peaked in 2000
 I only became aware of peak oil (though not by that
name) nearly 60 years ago by land use change when
my first school closed due to a lack of students.
 The Turner Valley Oilfield, Alberta, Canada (scene of
my childhood and a microcosm of the global scene),
had peaked 15 years before.
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
The Turner Valley Oil Rush
 14 May 1914, Dingman
No 1 blew in:
 It hit pay dirt at 800
metres depth yielding
400 000 cu m/day of
natural gas pushing
out a gusher of oil
 Within 24 hours,
promoters had formed
more than 500 oil
companies!
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Community development
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During the “boom”,
a string of
“shantytowns”
mushroomed:
 Naptha
 Glen Mede (my
first school)
 Hartell
 Mercury
 Little Chicago
(Royalties)
population 1350
 Little New York
(Longview)
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Use and Abuse: “Hell’s half-acre”
Up to the 1940’s, Turner Valley
had been the most
productive field in the entire
British Empire:
 25 000 barrels of oil/day
 20 million Cu M of gas/day
 Gas had little market value
and the “excess” (enough to
satisfy New York City’s
energy needs) was simply
burned off in massive flares.
Production peaked in 1940.
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Changing Technologies
After the peak:
 1950’s reduced gas pressure
meant pumps were required
 Automation reduced labour
demand, resulting in job losses
and depopulation.
 1960’s depeted oil levels were
addressed by water injection.
 1970’s more wells and pumps
were introduced to extract from
increasingly isolated pockets.
 Current flurry of horizontal drilling
and new pumping technology.
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Community deconstruction
“Rural renewal” of
townships
Naptha
Glen Mede
Hartell
Mercury
(refinery
explosion in
1951)
 Royalties




All reconverted
to farmland
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Longview the
only survivor
Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Lessons from this past experience:
 Oil depletion is real, and
already happening.
 Wastage and excesses
make the impacts orders of
magnitude worse.
 We need to recognise
that it is happening.
 We need to curb our
wastage and excess
early to minimise the
impact.
 70+ years post-peak, there
is still oil to be had from
Turner Valley, but
progressively lower in
volume and more difficult
and expensive to extract.
 Globally, we are already
very late in preparing
and responding to the
end of cheap oil.
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
So when do we have to act?
If a crash program to reduce oil use or to switch
from oil to renewable energy had begun:
20 years before Peak Oil (from 1986?):
Possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast
period.
Slight economic disruptions.
10 years before Peak Oil (from 1996?):
Liquid fuels shortfall for roughly a decade after the time that oil
would have peaked.
Moderate economic disruptions.
0 years before Peak Oil (from 2006?):
Significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades.
Severe economic disruptions (as started in 2008? 2nd dip soon?)
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Current switch to “unconventionals”
Already, we are relying more on
unconventional sources, and
are now facing the risks and
consequences.
Actual 1999 BP advertisement
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Can alternative fuels help?
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Likely Oil Depletion “Events”
1. Sudden critical supply interruption
 Sharp price rises
 Reduced availability of supply (queueing, rationing)
2. Intermittent supply constraints
 Volatile price fluctuations (our experience of the last five years),
and/or
 Sharp volatility of demand affected by price (ditto)
3. Progressive supply constraints
 global increase in demand competition
 Increased retention of reserves by exporters, and
 associated price rises (CSIRO models $8.00/litre)
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Transport is dependent on oil
Australia’s oil consumption:
 72% for transport
 8.5% for mining
 7.1% for chemicals
Oil-based plastics are
 Highly vulnerable
 Toxic and non-recyclable
 Minimal local value capture
 4.8% for agriculture
Transport is over 90% oil
dependent
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Energy consumed by vehicles (Qld)
 More than half of energy is consumed by private passenger cars
 Trucks and light commercial vehicles share most of the balance
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Australia relies disproportionately
on road transport
.
 In spite of increasing
vulnerability, the
proportion of freight taken
on trucks is actually
growing.
 Our dispersed population
and economic activity
makes the flexibility of
trucking compelling.
 Transport infrastructure
investment tends to favour
roads to facilitate
increased road freight.
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Our communities are at risk
For any decision
regarding capital
expenditure or
operations:
 Will this initiative
exacerbate oil
vulnerability?
 Or will it reduce
vulnerability?
The viability and
sustainability of our
communities’ are at
stake.
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
We can’t simply build our way
out of oil vulnerability
.
 Reliance on more
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infrastructure as a
possible solution
is problematic.
 Conventional
construction of
transport
infrastructure is
still very oil
intensive in both
materials and
machinery
Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
So how can we respond?
 Identify and quantify oil
usage in each sector and
operation,
 Identify vulnerable
activities and processes,
 Review how critical those
vulnerable activities and
processes are, then
 Assess the risks and
consequences of the oil
depletion events.
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
.
We require a transformation
From:
 Sprawling,
 Car-based monocultures
To:
 Functionally diverse,
 Locally self-reliant,
 Economically productive,
 Socially inclusive,
 Energy and water
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efficient,
 Less carbon intensive,
and
 More resilient settlement
patterns
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Post-Peak,
How will we exchange goods and services? .
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Choice of transit modes
Walking and cycling are most
sustainable;
Buses, trams and trains carry
people more efficiently and
amenably than cars do...and
can share the public realm;
Ferries (or kayaks) turn the
rivers and the Bay from
barriers to connectors
…and make transit an absolute
pleasure!
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Integrate home and vehicle energy .
 Using domestic solar
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to charge the car frees
us from hydrocarbons
 Energy storage in the
car’s battery addresses
one of the key
challenges of domestic
solar
 The effectiveness of
the combination will
depend on when the
car is being charged
and when used.
Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Goods and Services can be
Produced and Exchanged Locally .
 Integration of land use to minimise transport -




(compact, accessible and permeable mixed-use
centres to live, work and play, requiring minimum
motorised travel)
Use public transport, walking and cycling
Buy local – reduce commodity kilometres
Substitute oil-dependent products in favour of
renewable and local alternatives
Get used to living with less – human exchange is
more important than commodity exchange.
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Designing our Urban “places”
Our cities and “places” must support human
exchange …not just “keep the vehicles moving”.
 We live in cities to
maximise exchange with
a minimum of travel.
 Only at the pedestrian
scale and at pedestrian
pace, is valuable human
exchange possible.
 Reducing reliance on
vehicles not only reduces
oil vulnerability, but will
help our cities function.
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
What can place-based planning do?
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Identify opportunities to
reduce vulnerability
 Reinforce land use to
minimise travel (the
most economical trip is
the trip not taken)
 Change modes,
 Change logistics,
 Substitute less
vulnerable activities and
processes,
 Find efficiencies and
economies for activities
and processes that
cannot be avoided
 Find alternative energies
or fuels
Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Social and Land use Responses
Transport vulnerability
is addressed by nontransport solutions
 TOD: Co-location
and intensification of
diverse land uses
 Localisation and selfcontainment of
employment, supply
chains, production,
and economic
activity
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Local government’s role
Some Councils have
taken the initiative to
address vulnerability
of not just their own
operations, but also
their communities.
 Maribyrnong, Vic
 Sterling, WA
 Sunshine Coast, Qld
 Gold Coast, Qld
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Statutory support was emerging .
Towards Q2 2020 Target: Cut by
one-third Queenslanders’ carbon
footprint with reduced car and
electricity use
Qld Government had adopted an oil vulnerability report
and was preparing an Oil Vulnerability Strategy
FNQ and SEQ Regional Plans require oil vulnerability to
be addressed – but will these provisions survive?
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
…and professional interest
 ASPO has long supported initiatives to raise awareness (eg.
Brisbane Chapter locally-produced movie “Australia Pumping
Empty”)
 The Planning Institute of Australia dedicated its December 2010
Australian Planner issue to peak oil and is preparing a book of the
findings,
 ASPO Brisbane and Griffith University are hosting this oil
vulnerability symposium.
So the oil vulnerability issue is gaining credence
and traction…
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Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Conclusions
 What we must
do to respond
to peak oil is
exactly what
must be done
for urban
transformation
 Transition is
an awesome
responsibility
 Are we ready?
ASPO-Australia
Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Thank you
Wally Wight
wwight@gil.com.au
0417 741 377
Coordinator Brisbane Chapter
ASPO Australia
Adjunct Senior Research Fellow
Curtin University Sustainability
Policy (CUSP) Institute
ASPO-Australia
Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas