The Roadmap of cooperation
between Russia and the European Union in
the energy sector until 2050
Institute of Energy Strategy
Deputy General Director
Alexey Gromov
The EU-Russia Energy Dialogue
Brussels, 18th February 2011
EU and Russia: energy market interdependence
• Energy markets are globalizing
• Russia is a key supplier of energy for EU
• EU is a key market of energy for Russia
• Oil market as global factor
• LNG market is globalizing
• Russia develops alternative export markets
• EU develops alternative import sources
2
Russia and EU need common long-term Energy Vision
• Long-term global social and economic vision
250
• Nature – Society – People system
200
• Mathematical modeling
150
• global energy modeling
• macroeconomics modeling
100
• Technology foresight
50
• energy foresight
• non-energy foresight
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
• Energy sector analysis
Fact
Факт
Reference scenario
- Energy-intensive
Инерционный
сценарий
Stagnation scenario
- Energy savings
Стагнационный
сценарий
Innovative scenario
- Energy efficiency
Иннновационый
сценарий
• Key trends
• Key events
3
Global energy trends: shift to the developing countries
12
10
36
Global energy
consumption, btoe
30
8
24
6
18
4
12
2
6
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
ОЭСР,
факт
Fact OECD
Инерционный
сценарий,
ОЭСР
Reference scenario,
OECD
Stagnation scenario,
OECDОЭСР
Стагнационный
сценарий,
Innovative scenario, OECDОЭСР
Иннновационыйсценарий,
2030
2050
0
CO2 emission,
billion tonnes
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
РС,
факт
Fact
non-OECD
Инерционный
сценарий,
РС
Reference scenario,
non-OECD
Stagnation scenario,
non-OECD
Стагнационный
сценарий,РС
Innovative scenario,
non-OECD
Иннновационый
сценарий,
РС
4
Global energy trends: shift to the low-carbon energy
20
Reference scenario –
carbon-intensive + geopolitics
btoe
16
Stagnation scenario –
renewables + climate policy
12
Innovative scenario –
smart energy + market
8
4
Uncertainty is very high
 Renewables are key factor
0
2010
2050, reference
scenario
Oil
Nuclear
New renewables
Gas
Biomass
2050,
stagnation
scenario
2050,
innovative
scenario
 Radical change in energy mix
may happen and may not
Coal
Hydro
5
European energy market:
uncertainty is related with renewables and regulation
6000
EU electricity generation, bln mWh
2500
5000
EU primary energy consumption,
mtoe
2000
4000
1500
3000
1000
2000
1000
500
0
0
2010
2050,
2050,
2050,
reference stagnation innovative
scenario
scenario
scenario
Fossil fuel
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewables
2010
Oil
Nuclear
New renewables
2050,
reference
scenario
Gas
Biomass
2050,
2050,
stagnation
innovative
scenario
scenario
Coal
Hydro
EU share in global primary energy demand declines from 14,5% to 11-12%
7
European energy market:
shift from commodities to service and to technology
•
•
•
•
•
•
Energy efficiency: €40 bln in 2009
Energy service: €10 bln in 2009
Smart grids: €30 bln in 2009
Renewable energy market: €50 bln in 2009
Carbon markets: €70 bln in 2009
EU as the global leader in new low-carbon energy
Energy
commodities
market
2010
Energy
service
market
2030
Energy
technology
market
2050
7
Russia in global energy sector
Trend
Slowing demand
for Russian energy
Shift of demand to
Asia
End of oil era
Risk for Russia
Slowing growth of
economy & export
Growing competition
in Europe
Economic crisis
Climate policy
Limited export
opportunities
Irreversible lag for
Russia in energy and
economy
New-generation
energy sector
Requirement for Russia
Optimization of export
pipeline projects
New export destinations
in Asia
Reduce dependence on
oil exports
New markets
Modernization and
innovative development
of energy and economy
To achieve these goals,
Russia needs cooperation with European Union
8
Key challenge for Russia:
oil prices: wave dynamics and downward trend
120
Долл. 2009 г. за баррель
Downward trend
100
From commodity market to
service & technology market
80
Volatility reduction
60
The end of oil business
40
20
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Фактические
цены Brent
Fact
Инерционный
сценарий
Reference scenario
Stagnation scenario
Стагнационный
сценарий
Innovative scenario
Инновационный
сценарий
9
EU and Russia cooperation: common opportunities
Oil & gas
Energy efficiency
Modernization
Arctic fields
EU-Russia Centre for Common investment
development
energy innovation
in Russia
Projects of
Cooperation in
Interconnection of
common interest renewable energy
power systems
Oil prices forecast Heating efficiency in Cooperation in smart
Russia: EU experience greed development
Oil market
is needed
regulation
Common vision of Regional and
Import of equipment
the transit
municipal energy
and technology
problem
cooperation
Creation of common pan-European energy space is a key goal
Objective differences between Russia and EU should be regarded
10
Thank you for your attention!
Institute of Energy Strategy
www.energystrategy.ru
Tel. +7(495) 698-52-34
Е-mail: ies2@umaiI.ru