The Chesapeake Bay Program’s
Scenario Builder
Gary Shenk
CCMP workshop 5/11/2010
Chesapeake Bay Program
Decision Support System
Land Use
Change Model
Watershed
Model
Management
Actions
Criteria
Assessment
Procedures
Bay
Model
100
90
CFD Curve
Scenario
Builder
Percent of Time
80
70
Area of Criteria
Exceedence
60
50
Area of Allowable
Criteria
Exceedence
40
30
20
10
0
0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Percent of Space
Airshed
Model
Effects
Allocations
2
Quick Overview of Watershed Model Scenarios
Hourly output is summed over
10 years of hydrology to
compare against other
management scenarios
Hourly Values:
Rainfall
Snowfall
Temperature
Evapotranspiration
Wind
Solar Radiation
Dewpoint
Cloud Cover
HSPF
Snapshot:
Land Use Acreage
BMPs
Fertilizer
Manure
Atmospheric Deposition
Point Sources
Septic Loads
1991-2000
“Average Annual
Flow-Adjusted Loads”
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3
Non-Point Source Practices and Programs
Practices With Nutrient and Sediment Reduction Efficiencies
Atmosphere
Fertilizer
Manure
Load reductions attributed to
upland benefit employing
“efficiencies”
• Efficiencies can vary by hydrogeomorphic region
25 land uses
Runoff
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Scenario
Builder
Software that simulates land
use and management for
input to the Phase 5
Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Model
5
5
Number of segment / land-use / years in watershed model
1000000
operations
100000
Watershed Model
History
10000
1000
100
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year of completion
2005
2010
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Watershed Model History
Year
1982
1985
1992
1994
1997
2000
2008
Segs
64
64
64
89
89
94
1000
Years Land Uses
2
5
2
5
4
8
8
9
8
9
11
9
22
25
Purpose
Split point source and nonpoint source
Establish 40% goal
Define 40% by basins
Simulate nutrient cycle in more detail
Re-evaluate and redefine 40% by major basin
Set new goals and distribute by major subbasin
TMDL
Management questions and model have been
both increasing exponentially in complexity.
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7
Number of Scenarios
•
•
•
•
•
Mid 1980s – 0
Early 1990s – fewer than 10
Late 1990s – 37
Early 2000s – 400-500
2010 model – about 100 pre-finalization
– 1000s?
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8
Scenario Generation History
• 1982 – no scenarios
• 1985 - 1994 – Aquaterra and SAIC
– simple scenarios through hand calculation and
spreadsheets
– modified watershed model by hand
• 1995 – 2009
– series of increasingly interconnected spreadsheets
– Automated Modification of watershed model
• 2010
– Scenario Builder
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10
Non-Point Source Practices and Programs
Practices that Alter Nutrient Applications to Agriculture Land
Uncollected
Pasture
Volatilization
Phytase
Precision Feeding/Forage Management
Manure Transport
Beef
Volatilization
Dairy
Swine
Layers
Collected
Broilers
Turkeys
Enclosure
Daily Application
Horses
Storage
Spring/Fall
Application Crop
Volatilization
Barnyard
Runoff
Daily Application
Runoff
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Watershed Wide Crops by Acreage
25.7%
11.9%
11.7%
1.8%
0.3%
1.2%
0.8%
2.4%
0.3%
0.9%
14.8%
21.5%
Tracking yields and
acreages on a county
basis
9.1%
Corn & Sorghum (Grain)
Corn & Sorghum (Silage)
Soybeans
Small Grains
Other Hay
Alfalfa
Vegetables Harvested
Berry & Orchard
Potatoes
Tobacco
Cotton
Peanuts
Approximately 100 crop types and 10 growing
regions with different parameters for each
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Outputs to Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model
• BMPs
– Descriptions
– Acres
– Pounds nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment reduced
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Land uses
Manure (nutrient species/land use/month)
Septic system loads
Vegetative Cover
Fertilizer application
Legumes (pounds nitrogen)
Maximum crop uptake
Uptake curve (monthly nutrient uptake by land use)
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Scenario Builder Versions
•
•
•
•
•
1
2
3
4
5
Land use and Nutrient Inputs
BMPs, point source, septic
NEIEN implementation
Summarized reports
Web interface
Scenario Builder Planned Enhancements
• Version 2.2a: System Maintenance and Documentation Release
– System documentation updated
• Version 2.3: Septic and Atmospheric Deposition
– Add these are two new sub-systems
• Version 2.4: BMP Descriptions and Other BMP Files
– Accessory BMP files that the model needs to process BMP data from Scenario
Builder.
– Input the Phase 5.3 watershed model outputs
• Version 2.5: Improve Animal Waste Management System BMPs and Dead Birds
– Both are being addressed by BMPs now—will be addressed more accurately
• Version 2.6: Wastewater Sub System
– Will automate input data generation over 3,000 facilities
• Version 3: NEIEN Exchange
– Conversion of NEIEN BMP exchange data into Scenario Builder formats.
• Version 4: Data Products
– Developing reports or other data products that will stream-line the process for
states, locals and other partners/stakeholders to request information
• Version 5: User Interface
– Evolution of version 2.2 User Interface for running “what if” scenarios
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Co-Developers of the Chesapeake Bay
Program’s Scenario Builder
Chesapeake Bay Program
Developers
EPA
U of MD
TreCom
USGS
NRCS
CRC
VaTech
Advisors and data suppliers
NY, PA, MD, DE, VA, WV, DC
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