Towards a European Collision Warning and Avoidance Centre
BURAK YAGLIOGLU
Dr. ELİF KUTDEMİR, Dr. EGEMEN IMRE, ÖZGÜN YILMAZ
P2ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820
Prediction, Protection & Reduction of
Orbital Exposure to Collision Threats
63rd International Astronautical Congress
Naples, 5 October 2012
Outline
 Introduction
 Current Conditions and Standardized Operations
 The European Collision Warning Avoidance Centre (ECWAC)
 Conclusions
63rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012
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Introduction
 Space assets becoming more critical for many aspects of the
daily life
 More small scale operators to launch space assets
 Protection of the space assets
 Prevention is better than cure
 Well protected big players: Not enough!
 Any collision in space > faster cascade > everyone loses
 How to enable small players to protect themselves?
63rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012
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Environmental Characteristics
Good prediction
High risk
Catastrophic results
Reasonable prediction
Very low risk
Catastrophic results??
OK prediction
Low risk
Catastrophic results??
LEO
MEO
GEO
Object
Population
Characteristics
†
Very high density of both
trackable (~5%, > 5cm.)
and non trackable objects
Low density of trackable
(>0.4 m.) and non
trackable objects
High density of trackable
(>1 m.) objects, stable
regions are more
populated
Conjunction
Characteristics
†
Impact velocities
associated with
conjunctions are high and
collision risk is higher
around polar regions
Relatively the lowest risk
of conjunction with
objects in space
Impact velocities
associated with
conjunctions are
relatively lower
*
However, it has to be taken into account in radiation shielding design and in the operations phase.
† Based on the analysis performed using the ESA MASTER 2009 software.
63rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012
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Overview of Collision Avoidance Operations
JSpOC
(CSMs, TLE data)
Rough Assessment
PoC > PoC threshold
Flight
Dynamics
(Precise orbit data for
target satellite)
Fine Assessment
PoC > PoC threshold
Manoeuvre Planning
Operator
PoC > PoC threshold
RADAR
(Platform and Mission
Constraints/Considerations)
Manoeuvre Decision
(RADAR data for chaser)
Post Manoeuvre Activity
63rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012
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Main Problem
 While big operators are able to implement standard
procedures with access to:
• all sorts of data,
• tools and sensors
to check for possible risks and refine the data with
further sensor measurements,
most other operators have varying degrees of awareness
and capabilities regarding conjunction prediction,
analysis and collision avoidance manoeuvring.
63rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012
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ECWAC
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ECWAC
More Ground
and Space
Based Sensors
Consultancy in S/C
and Mission Design
Better Collision
Risk Indicators
New Service
63rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012
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ECWAC
Service
Available to
Everyone
Service
Available to
Everyone
Service
Available to
Everyone
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Proposed Improvements
 Better Risk Analysis Data (For Everyone)
 Improved the observation sensor network for better quality
 Standardized risk analysis tools through a common access point
 Better and Standardized Manoeuvre Planning
 Better understanding of the conjunction information
 Standardized tools for manoeuvre planning
 Standardized conjunction analysis tools to be made available during
the manoeuvre planning stage
63rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012
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Proposed Improvements
 Collision Avoidance as a Part of Routine Operations
 A well established operational procedure with all sorts of necesssary
information
 The measures should be initiated as early as possible
 The state of the conjunction event chain should be well documented
and communicated
 Collision Avoidance as a Part of Design
 Enhance the flexibility of mission concept to account for the risk
reduction operations
 Establish a telemetry based system diagram including troubleshooting
and problem indicators
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Conclusions
 Space debris problem is NOT going away!
 Small operators are posing a significant threat for everyone
(including themselves!)
 Europe can lead the way by extending SSA: ECWAC!
 Through ECWAC, more awareness, more information and
more tools to be made available:
 At design stage
 During regular operations
 When handling a conjunction event
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QUESTIONS
GRAZIE!
burak.yaglioglu@tubitak.gov.tr
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