Energy for Transportation
and Developments in
Plug-in Vehicles
Guenter Conzelmann
Center for Energy, Environmental, and Economic Systems Analysis
Decision and Information Sciences Division (DIS)
Argonne National Laboratory
9700 South Cass Avenue
Argonne, IL 60439
Why Electric Transportation?
 The nation has an oil problem
– U.S. is refining more oil than it has, and
consumes even more
 The current high oil prices reflect the
increasing global demand for a limited
energy resource: China is number 2 in oil
use and India is 6th…and growing
 Oil is predominately a transportation energy
problem, with economic, environmental, and
geopolitical concerns for the nation
120
Reserves
Production
Consumption
100
80
60
98
40
90
75
20
25
0
2
10
U.S.
Rest of World
 Oil is an energy security issue
 Reliance on domestic oil is not sustainable,
we cannot drill our way out of the problem
 Even optimistic projections leave us heavily
dependent on foreign oil
2
Electric Vehicles: Are they Real?
Source: EPRI, 2009)
3
Electric Vehicles are Part of the Government-Industry
Partnership Advanced Propulsion Portfolio Vision
 Portfolio approach as there is no clear winner
 Likely, the U.S. solution with include a mix of technologies with multiple fuel sources
(electricity, biofuels, alternative fuels, etc.)
4
Existing Battery Technologies do not yet Approach the
Energy and Power in an Internal Combustion (IC) Engine
 R&D on New Technologies is still needed
5
HEV, PHEV, E-REV, BEV, AEV, CS, CD, V2G, etc.: Might as
well Talk to my Dog???
6
The Main Concepts in Simple Terms
 HEV: Hybrid electric vehicle (Ford Escape, Toyota Prius)
– Small battery, gets recharged from regenerative breaking; very limited all-electric range
– No plug
 PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
– Larger battery; gets charged by plugging I
– Different drivetrain configurations
• Series: ICE turns generator which charges battery which runs electric motor (Chevy Volt)
• Parallel: ICE and electric motor both run the car simultaneously (Honda Insight)
• Mix
 E-REV: Extended Range Electric Vehicle
– A PHEV with a bigger battery for driving ranges of 40-60+ miles using only the battery (allelectric driving); after which the gas engine starts
 BEV: Battery Electric Vehicles
– Pure electric vehicles; only has an electric drivetrain
– When your out of battery, you are out of battery
7
Basic Concept of a Plug-in Electric Vehicle
10 kWh JCS
Li-ion battery
8
Different Ways of Controlling/Operating PHEVs
Engines/Batteries
Blended Modes (conventional
engine cycles on/off fairly
frequently)
All-Electric Modes (conventional
engine stays off for an extended
period of time until the battery
charge reaches a certain level;
then starts up)
SOC: State of Charge (Battery)
9
There Will be a Substantial Cost Premium to Early Adopters;
Estimates of Premium Vary Noticeably
Incremental Cost over Conventional (1000$)
25
Argonne
NAS 2015 Probable
NAS 2015 Optimistic
20
15
10
5
0
Conventional
HEV
(e.g., Prius)
PHEV10
(4kWh)
PHEV20
(8kWh)
E-REV30
(12kWh)
E-REV40
(16kWh)
10
Estimated Paybacks Can be Very Long; But the More you
Drive (and the Higher the Price of Gasoline), the Better it is
Source: Sharer and Rousseau, 2009, ANL
11
Increases in Powertrain Cost are Not the Only Cost Increases
that Consumers May Need to Pay
 Chargers and cord and connector between vehicle and plus
 Charging Circuit Upgrades or Installation
– If you want faster charging, you will need an upgrade
– Level 1: Your standard circuit (110V, 20Amps, 1.1 KW)
– Level 2: Upgraded circuit (220V, 15 Amps, 3.3 kW)
Charging Time (Hours)
12
110V, 15A
110V, 20A
220V, 20A
220V, 30A
10
n
n
n
8
Midsize car
Crossover SUV
Traditional SUV
6
4
2
0
PHEV20 PHEV30 PHEV20
PHEV30 PHEV20 PHEV30 PHEV20 PHEV30
12
Examples for In-Home Charging and Public Charge
Stations
Source: Coulomb Technologies, 2010
13
How do We Use Vehicles?
 PHEVs with an all-electric-range (AER) of 20 Miles could cover about 40% of daily
Vehicles-Miles-Traveled (VMT) on electricity
 PHEVs with a 30-Mile AER could cover about 55% of Daily VMTs
14
How do We Use Vehicles? (2)
 Weekday Last Vehicle Trip Ending Time Shows a Sharp Peak At 5-6 PM, Totaling
15% of Vehicles
16%
Share of vehicles
used on weekdays
12%
The chart shows national data. Similar
patterns can be observed for different
regions in the country.
10%
8%
6%
Share of vehicles
used on weekend
4%
Last Trip Ending Time
23:01-24:00
22:01-23:00
21:01-22:00
20:01-21:00
19:01-20:00
18:01-19:00
17:01-18:00
16:01-17:00
15:01-16:00
14:01-15:00
13:01-14:00
12:01-13:00
11:01-12:00
10:01-11:00
9:01-10:00
8:01-9:00
7:01-8:00
6:01-7:00
5:01-6:00
4:01-5:00
3:01-4:00
2:01-3:00
0%
1:01-2:00
2%
0:01-1:00
Share of Sampled Vehicles
14%
15
15
2%
2%
0%
0%
Last Trip End Time
Last Trip End Time
22:01-23:00
21:01-22:00
20:01-21:00
19:01-20:00
18:01-19:00
17:01-18:00
16
23:01-24:00
Share of vehicles
used on weekend
16:01-17:00
23:01-24:00
22:01-23:00
21:01-22:00
20:01-21:00
19:01-20:00
18:01-19:00
17:01-18:00
16:01-17:00
15:01-16:00
14:01-15:00
13:01-14:00
12:01-13:00
11:01-12:00
10:01-11:00
Share of vehicles
used on weekend
15:01-16:00
14:01-15:00
13:01-14:00
12:01-13:00
14%
11:01-12:00
12%
10:01-11:00
9:01-10:00
8:01-9:00
7:01-8:00
6:01-7:00
5:01-6:00
4:01-5:00
3:01-4:00
2:01-3:00
14%
9:01-10:00
Last Trip End Time
8:01-9:00
6%
7:01-8:00
July-Sep
10%
6:01-7:00
8%
4%
5:01-6:00
Last Vehicle Trip Ending
Pattern of Trips Made During
July Through September
6%
4:01-5:00
16%
3:01-4:00
Jan-Mar
1:01-2:00
8%
10%
2:01-3:00
Last Vehicle Trip Ending
Pattern of Trips Made During
January Through March
0:01-1:00
12%
Share of Vehicles Used
Share of vehicles
used on weekdays
1:01-2:00
Share of vehicles
used on weekdays
Share of Vehicles Used
23:01-24:00
22:01-23:00
21:01-22:00
20:01-21:00
19:01-20:00
18:01-19:00
17:01-18:00
16%
0:01-1:00
23:01-24:00
22:01-23:00
21:01-22:00
20:01-21:00
19:01-20:00
18:01-19:00
Share of vehicles
used on weekend
17:01-18:00
16:01-17:00
15:01-16:00
14:01-15:00
13:01-14:00
12:01-13:00
11:01-12:00
10:01-11:00
9:01-10:00
8:01-9:00
7:01-8:00
6:01-7:00
5:01-6:00
4:01-5:00
4%
16:01-17:00
0%
3:01-4:00
Share of vehicles
used on weekend
15:01-16:00
14:01-15:00
13:01-14:00
12:01-13:00
12%
11:01-12:00
14%
10:01-11:00
0%
2:01-3:00
14%
9:01-10:00
8:01-9:00
4%
7:01-8:00
6%
6:01-7:00
2%
1:01-2:00
6%
5:01-6:00
4:01-5:00
3:01-4:00
2:01-3:00
10%
1:01-2:00
2%
0:01-1:00
Share of Vehicles Used
10%
0:01-1:00
Share of Vehicles Used
How do We Use Vehicles? (3)
 Some variation; the hottest months have the smallest peak hour share
16%
Share of vehicles
used on weekdays
Last Vehicle Trip Ending
Pattern of Trips Made During
April Through June
8%
Apr-Jun
Last Trip End Time
16%
Share of vehicles
used on weekdays
12%
Last Vehicle Trip Ending
Pattern of Trips Made During
October Through December
8%
Oct-Dec
4%
Worst Case: Charging Starts when People Arrive at their
Homes; Will Show Grid Impacts
180,000
30,000
WECC April 2020 Aggressive PHEV Case:
Charge When Arriving @ Home
150,000
PHEV Aggressive
Baseload
25,000
Base + PHEV Aggressive
20,000
Total Load [MW]
PHEV Load [MW]
120,000
90,000
15,000
60,000
10,000
30,000
5,000
0
0
0
24
48
72
96
120
144
168
17
17
A Smart Vehicle-Grid Interface Configuration (Smart Grid,
Smart Vehicle) will Reduce (Avoid?) System Impacts
V2G
18
Utilities see PHEV Smart-Charging as Critical for Success
 Impact of PEVs on the 2020
Summer Load of Southern
California Electric Power Grid
– Peak power will increase
substantially without
management
 Optimal management requires
smart grids and smart vehicles
 Local circuits (blocks and
neighborhoods) must be
protected from overload
– Transformers need cooling
periods at night
– Lifetime may be reduced
 Consumer education and pricing
policy will be key enablers
Source: SCE, 2009
19
Best Case: Smart-Charging Delays Start of Battery Charging,
and Perfectly Fills the Load Night-time Valley
180,000
30,000
WECC April 2020 Aggressive PHEV Case:
Smart Charging
150,000
20,000
PHEV Load [MW]
120,000
Total Load [MW]
25,000
PHEV Aggressive Smart
Baseload
Base + PHEV Aggressive Smart
90,000
15,000
60,000
10,000
30,000
5,000
0
0
0
24
48
72
96
120
144
168
20
20
V2G: Vehicles could be an Active Component of the Future Grid
 Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) is a PHEV equipped with a communications interface
– Control signals are sent from the grid operator to manage the flow of energy between the
vehicle and the grid
• Changing charging rate; reversing the flow of energy to feed back to the grid depending on
a variety of factors including current grid load, current amount of renewable generation,
state of charge of the vehicle, and real-time energy pricing
– Direct load control (similar to AC programs)
 With true bi-directional flow capability, vehicles could provide ancillary grid services
– Frequency control, regulation and spinning reserves
– Help penetration of intermittent renewable energy generation resources (solar and wind)
 Another option is Vehicle-to-House (V2H)
– Plug-in vehicles treated as power generation resource along with solar or wind power, and
controlled directly by an energy management system which controls the energy load at the
home or business
 Some issues
– Automakers want dumb charging (KISS), utilities want smart charging
– Distribution system not built for bi-directional flows; will need infrastructure investments
– Communication infrastructure would have to be developed
– Effect of increased grid-controlled cycling on battery life time
21
Argonne is Analyzing Grid Integration Issues of Plug-in
Hybrid Electric Vehicles
 New analysis initiated for DOE
 Total of 4 case studies at different levels of
detail
– Western Interconnect, Illinois, New York ISO,
New England ISO
 Involves projecting PHEV penetration,
electricity demand, charging scenarios, grid
and infrastructure impacts, electricity prices,
and emissions
Western Interconnect
Model Representation
22
22
Summary of Recent Studies on Impacts of PHEVs on Power
Systems
Study
Where?
When?
How Much PHEVs?
Hadley, 2008 (ORNL):
Estimates marginal generation
needed in individual regions.
Estimates GHGs and criteria
pollutants.
Thirteen 2007
NERC Regions
a) after 5 PM
b) after 10 PM
25% on-road LDV share
in 2030
Lemoine, 2008 (UC Berkeley):
Estimates CAISO (CA) capability to
meet PHEV electric demand.
California
a) evening (1 charge/day)
b) morning and evening
(2 charges/day)
Several penetration
scenarios from 20% of
annual new vehicle sales
to 100% by PHEVs
Miller, 2007 (Atomic Energy of
Canada Limited): Aggregate
analysis of new nuclear electricity
supply required.
Ontario
Off-peak charging of
PHEVs, balance of plant
output replacing current
coal.
One third of LDV energy
demand is from electricity
EPRI & NRDC, 2007:
Examines GHG impacts of PHEVs
under three alternative futures: low,
medium, and high carbon intensity
Thirteen 2007
NERC regions
Charging distributed
throughout the day, but
mainly off-peak
3 scenarios: 20%, 62%,
and 80% share of new
LDV sales by PHEVs in
2050
Kintner-Meyer, 2007 (PNNL)
12 modified
NERC Regions
Valley filling of daily
electric load curve
Estimates total available
energy to charge PHEVs
23
23
The Starting Point is to Estimate the Future PHEV Market
using Market Simulation Tools
24
Estimates of Number of PHEVs on the Road in 2020 by
Region
 About 10% of Cars and SUVs In 2020 are assumed to be PHEVs
 Breakdown into AER 10, 20, 30, and 40 using average typical travel pattern (NHTS)
– PHEV10 – 39%; PHEV20 – 29%; PHEV30 – 19%; PHEV40 - 13%
3,000,000
Useable battery energy =
60% of rated energy
PHEVs in 2020
2,500,000
2,000,000
Battery Rating
16 kWh
12 kWh
8 kWh
4 kWh
Further broken
down into
Chicago and Rest
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
California
WECC
Excluding
California
Illinois
New England
New York
25
PHEV Load Profiles for Different Charging Behavior
26
Load/Grid Impacts Vary due to Different Vehicle Adoption
Rates and Different Urban/Rural Driving Patterns
Different
impacts
27
New Capacity Requirements in 2020 due to PHEV Loads
Power
System
System
Peak
Load
(MW)
Unconstrained Charge
Max.
PHEV
Load
(MW)
System
New
Peak
Capacity
Increase Addition
(MW)
(MW)
NY-ISO
38,738
685
370
NE-ISO
31,292
759
513
WECC
156,325
3,807
1,819
Illinois
38,749
563
336
NGCC
400
NGCC
400 +
GT 230
NGCC
5x400
NGCC
400
Constrained Charge
Max.
PHEV
Load
(MW)
System
New
Peak
Capacity
Increase Addition
(MW)
(MW)
Smart Charge
Max.
PHEV
Load
(MW)
System
New
Peak
Capacity
Increase Addition
(MW)
(MW)
685
181
GT 230
1,286
0
0
759
169
GT 230
1,373
0
0
3,807
589
NGCC
2x400
5,935
0
0
563
178
GT 230
1,028
0
0
28
WECC Results: Additional Generation from Gas and Coal
12
Marginal Generation for PHEV Load (TWh)
Renewables
Biofuels
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Coal
10
8
6
4
2
0
Unconstrained
-2
3-Hour Shift
Smart-Charge
29
IL Results: Baseline Generation Mix in April and July
Generation (GWh)
2000
1800
April (Week 14)
1600
July (Week 32)
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
30
PHEV Impact on Hourly Loads, Scenario A, Week 32 (July)
31
PHEV Impact on Hourly Loads, Scenario A, Week 14 (April)
32
PHEV Impact on Annual Load Duration Curve, Scenario A
33
PHEV-Induced Change in Generation Mix in April:
Substantially More Coal, a Little More Gas
450
Scenario A
Scenario B
400
Change in Generation (GWh)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
34
PHEV-Induced Change in Generation Mix in July:
Less Additional Coal, More Gas
450
Scenario A
Scenario B
400
Change in Generation (GWh)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
35
Simulated Prices for Chicago Area – Week 32 (July):
Different Price Impacts under Different Scenarios
36
Location is Important – Simulated Prices in July (Week 32)
Chicago Area
Mid-Illinois
37
Summary of Petroleum Energy and GHG Effects of All
Evaluated Options: Unconstrained Charging Scenario
1.4
EV
PHEV SI Gasoline
PHEV CI Diesel
PHEV SI Corn-E85
PHEV SI H. Biomass-E85
PHEV FC Distributed SMR-H2
PHEV FC Central H. Biomass-H2
1.2
color/pattern of marker = fuel/vehicle type
shape of marker = electricity generation mix
size of marker = AER rating
[VMTCD/VMTtotal]PHEV10 = 19%
[VMTCD/VMTtotal]PHEV40 = 51%
EV, US Ave mix
EV, NE Ave mix
EV, CA Ave mix
GHG Emissions (relative to GV)
1.0
H2
Petroleum fuels
E85
0.8
Small marker for PHEV10
Large marker for PHEV40
0.6
Baseline (GV)
0.4
Regular HEV (AER 0)
US Ave. Mix
WECC Mix
0.2
NY Mix
IL Mix
Renewable
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Petroleum Use (relative to GV)
38
Summary
 PHEVs can play a substantial role in reducing our petroleum consumption
 GHG emission reductions related to PHEV depend heavily on the energy/power mix,
Average Hourly Wind Fraction
0.70
70
0.60
60
0.50
50
0.40
40
0.30
30
0.20
20
0.10
0.00
Chevy Volt Phone App
and 2008 Real-Time Prices in IL Hub
80
IL Wind 01
IL Wind 03
Real-Time Price IL
IL Wind 02
IL Wind 04
Average Hourly Real-Time Price [$/MWh]
the vehicle configuration, and the choice of technology
 Smart-infrastructure is critical to manage the additional load on the grid
 PHEVs/EVs may facilitate the use of large penetration of variable, renewable
resources
0.80
Average Hourly Wind Profiles for 4 Locations in Illinois
 Keep it simple for the consumer
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
39