Plug-In Hybrid-Electric Vehicles
Current Status, Long-Term Prospects and Key Challenges
University of Colorado Sustainable Energy Course Lecture
by
Tony Markel
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Thursday November 16th, 2006
Overview
• Why plug-in?
• What is a Plug-In Hybrid-Electric Vehicle (PHEV)?
• State-of-the-art in PHEV technology and key players in
the industry
• Key challenges in bringing viable PHEVs to market
• NREL’s contributions to PHEV research and
development
Why Plug-In Hybrids?
The Perfect Storm
• World oil production predicted to peak
within the next 5-15 years
• Recent increase in gasoline price is
indicator of growing tension between
supply and demand
Domestic Production
Domestic Consumption
20
Petroleum (mmb/day)
• Petroleum consumption has steadily
increased while domestic production has
continued to decline
25
15
10
5
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Gasoline price - 200% rise in 8 years!
Weekly National Average Gasoline Price ($/gallon)
$3.50
$3.00
$2.50
$2.00
Source: Hubbert Center Newsletter #99/1 R. Udall and S. Andrews
$1.50
WHAT’S OUR PLAN?
$1.00
$0.50
Source: US Dept of Energy, Energy Information Administration
$1990
1993
1995
1998
2001
2004
2006
America’s Oil Addiction
• Transportation sector nearly
100% petroleum dependent
• Transportation accounts for
two-thirds of total petroleum
consumption
“America is addicted to oil…”
• 58% of petroleum is
imported
The President’s Advanced Energy Initiative Goals:
Fueling Our Vehicles
1.
Develop advanced battery technologies that allow a plug-in hybrid-electric vehicle to
have a 40-mile range operating solely on battery charge
2.
Foster the breakthrough technologies needed to make cellulosic ethanol costcompetitive with corn-based ethanol by 2012.
3.
Accelerate progress towards the President’s goal of enabling large numbers of
Americans to choose hydrogen fuel cell vehicles by 2020.
Source: www.whitehouse.gov
Oil Use Reduction with HEVs
Light Duty Fleet Oil Use - Impact of HEVs on Consumption
16
2005 AEO Base Case
HEV Scenario
14
Oil Consumption (MPBD)
12
Oil use same as today!
3 MBPD
10
8
6
4
This highly aggressive scenario assumes 100% HEV sales from 2010 onwards…
2
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Year
HEVs unable to reduce consumption below today’s consumption level
Produced using VISION model, MBPD = million barrels per day
Oil Use Reduction with PHEVs
Light Duty Fleet Oil Use - Impact of PHEVs on Consumption
16
2005 AEO Base Case
PHEV Scenario
14
Oil Consumption (MPBD)
12
Oil use reduction!
4 MBPD
10
8
6
PHEVs on E85 ??
4
This highly aggressive scenario assumes 100% HEV sales
from 2010 and 50% PHEV40 sales from 2020 onwards…
2
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Year
PHEVs reduce oil consumption with a transition to electricity
Produced using VISION model, MBPD = million barrels per day
What is a Plug-In Hybrid-Electric Vehicle
(PHEV)?
Contemporary Hybrids
Toyota Camry
Honda Civic
Saturn Vue
Toyota Prius
Honda Accord
Ford Escape
Toyota Highlander
Lexus RX400h
Honda Insight
Lexus GS450h
Chevy Silverado
A “Full” Hybrid
ADVANCED ENGINE
ELECTRIC ACCESSORIES
ENGINE DOWNSIZING
PETROLEUM ONLY
REGENERATIVE BRAKING
76hp gasoline engine, 67hp electric motor, 1.5kWh battery
ENGINE IDLE-OFF
A Plug-In Hybrid
ADVANCED ENGINE
Fuel Flexibility
ELECTRIC ACCESSORIES
ENGINE DOWNSIZING
PETROLEUM
AND/OR
ELECTRICITY
ENGINE IDLE-OFF
REGENERATIVE BRAKING
BATTERY RECHARGE
76hp gasoline engine, 67hp electric motor, 9.0kWh battery (30mi)
Benefits of a Plug-In vs. Full Hybrid
CONSUMER BENEFITS
Lower
“fuel”
costs
Fewer
fill-ups
Home
recharging
convenience
By plugging it in…
Less CO2
emissions
Less air
pollution
Less
petroleum
use
NATIONAL BENEFITS
Fuel
flexibility
Vehicle-to-grid
(V2G) potential
Better
Energy utilization of
diversity generation
capacity
Plug-In Hybrid Variants - Midsize Sedan
HEV
Conventional
164hp
103hp
47hp / 1.3kWh
3150 lbs
3070 lbs
3460 lbs
3240 lbs
PHEV40
110hp
60hp / 16.1kWh
PHEV20
106hp
Note: these are hypothetical vehicles with equivalent 0-60mph performance
59hp / 7.7kWh
Plug-In Hybrid Fuel Economy
Predicted fuel economy and operating costs for midsize sedan1
Vehicle Type
Gasoline
Fuel
Economy
Electricity
Use
Annual
Energy Use
Annual
Energy Cost
Recharge
Time3
Conventional
27 mpg
---
564 gal.
$1360
---
Hybrid-Electric
36 mpg
---
416 gal.
$1000
---
Plug-In Hybrid
20mi range
51 mpg
0.09 kWh/mi
297 gal. and
1394 kWh2
$716 + $125
< 4 hrs
Plug-In Hybrid
40mi range
69 mpg
0.16 kWh/mi
218 gal. and
2342 kWh2
$525 + $211
< 8 hrs
1)
2)
3)
Assumes 15,000 miles annually, gasoline price of $2.41 per gallon, electricity price of 9c/kWh
Note that average US household consumes 10,700 kWh of electricity each year
Using 110V, 20A household outlet
PHEVs Reduce Fuel Consumption By >50%
On Real- World Driving Cycles
227 vehicles from St. Louis each modeled as a conventional, hybrid and PHEV
35
400
Conventional
Hybrid
PHEV20
PHEV40
26 mpg
350
30
25
20
300
37 mpg
• 8647 total miles driven
• 100% replacement of
sample fleet
58 mpg &
140 Wh/mi
250
200
15
150
10
100
76 mpg &
211 Wh/mi
5
0
0
5
10
15
Time of Day (hr)
20
25
50
0
30
Average Daily Costs
Cumulative Fuel Consumed (gallons)
Percentage of Vehicle Fleet In Use (%)
40
Gas.
Elec.
¢/mi
CV
$3.45
---
9.1
HEV
$2.48
---
6.5
PHEV20
$1.58
$0.48
5.4
PHEV40
$1.21
$0.72
5.1
Assumes $2.41/gal and 9¢/kWh
PHEVs:
>40% reduction in
operating costs
>$500 annual savings
HEVs and PHEVs Likely to Reduce Greenhouse Emissions
Source: Hybrid Electric Vehicle Working Group, www.epri.com
Electrified Miles May Lead to Cleaner Operation
Source: Hybrid Electric Vehicle Working Group, www.epri.com
PHEV Impact on Utilities
Load (% of Annual Peak Load)
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
Summer Maximum
0.2
Winter
0.1
Spring Minimum
0
0
24
48
72
96
120
144
Hour
Typical Hourly Electric Demand Patterns
168
PHEV Impact on Utilities
Utility Sized for
Annual Peak
700
650
600
Peak Shaving?
550
Load (MW)
No PHEVs
w/PHEVs
Excess Capacity
500
450
Night-time
charging
of PHEV’s
400
350
Ratio of base to peak
is measure of utility
performance
300
250
200
0
2000
4000
6000
Hour
Hours at Load Annually
Assumes utility controlled night-time charging for 50% of the
vehicles in this utility district
8000
State-of-the-Art in PHEV Technology and
Key Players in the Industry
OEM Plug-In Hybrids
2003 Renault Kangoo Elect’road
- up to 50mi electric range
- approximately 500 sold in Europe
DaimlerChrysler Sprinter PHEV
- 15 prototypes being produced for
testing in various locations in
Europe and North America
- up to 20mi electric range
DaimlerChrysler Sprinter PHEV
OEM Plug-In Hybrids
“…Toyota executive Shinichi Abe has been quoted…that Toyota
is working on plug-in hybrids…that the next-generation Prius will
have an all-electric range of about nine miles…”
Green Car Congress, 23 April 2006
“…we are looking at plug-in hybrids…we are very keenly looking
at it, and working with that technology.”
Bill Ford Jr, 11 May 2006
Other PHEV Prototypes - Industry
EnergyCS Plug-In Prius
HyMotion Escape PHEV
AC Propulsion Jetta PHEV
AFS Trinity Extreme Hybrid™
Esoro AG H301
Other PHEV Prototypes - Universities
University of California,
Davis
University of Queensland,
Australia
San Diego State University
PHEV Batteries
Johnson Controls / SAFT
Valence Technologies
Cobasys
Hymotion
PHEV Supporters
Founding Partners
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Austin Energy
City of Austin, Texas
City of New York
Set America Free Coalition
Center for Energy and Climate Solutions
Center for National Security Policy
American Public Power Association
Plus several hundred other cities and counties, utilities,
national security and environmental groups
www.pluginpartners.org
PHEV Supporters cont.
Membership as of March 2006
— Pacific Gas & Electric (utility)
— Southern California Edison (utility)
— Raser Technologies (drives)
— Maxwell Technologies (ultracaps)
— Electrovaya (lithium batteries)
— Enax (lithium batteries)
— Daiken (lithium batteries)
— International Battery (lithium batteries)
— A123Systems (lithium batteries)
— Delta-Q Technologies (power electronics)
www.hybridconsortium.org
PHEV Supporters cont.
• Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
• California Cars Initiative
• Plug-In America
• Americans for Energy Independence
• Senator Orrin Hatch (R), Utah
• President George W. Bush
Key challenges in bringing
viable PHEVs to market
Battery Life
• PHEV battery likely to deep-cycle each day driven: 15 yrs equates to 4000-5000 deep cycles
• Also need to consider combination of high and low frequency cycling
70%
50%
4000
Data presented by Christian Rosenkranz (Johnson Controls) at EVS 20
Battery Packaging
Vehicle Costs
Projected Retail Powertrain Costs - Midsize Sedans
1) including manufacturer and dealer markups
2) all component costs assume projected status
$18,000
$16,000
$14,000
$663
charger/plug
battery
motor/inverter
transmission
engine
$663
$12,000
$8,433
$10,000
$5,117
$8,000
$2,433
$6,000
$2,079
$2,407
$2,454
$1,992
$2,004
$2,020
$2,865
$2,919
$3,002
HEV
PHEV20
PHEV40
$1,998
$4,000
$2,000
$4,005
$CV
Vehicle Costs cont.
Cumulative Vehicle plus Energy (Fuel/Elec.) Costs
$60,000
CV
HEV
PHEV20
PHEV40
Cumulative cost (2006 $)
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$2.41/gal. (today)
$3.00/gal.
$4.00/gal.
(2005 avg)
$20,000
$10,000
$0
5
10
Time after purchase (years)
15
Vehicle Costs cont.
Why would PHEV buyers pay more?
1. Tax incentives
2. Reduced petroleum use, air pollution and CO2
3. National energy security
4. Less maintenance
5. Reduced fill-ups
6. Convenience of home recharging (off-peak)
7. Improved acceleration (high torque of electric motors)
8. Green image, “feel-good factor”
Summary
1. PHEVs are a key technology in the portfolio of
options to reduce US oil use
2. They also provide significant other consumer and
national benefits
3. Precommerical PHEV prototypes are on the road
today
4. There has been a surge in community, industry and
political support for PHEVs
5. The key remaining barriers to commercial PHEVs are
battery life, packaging and cost
Summary of NREL PHEV Activities
• National benefits assessment – oil use and greenhouse
emissions
• Vehicle-Level
—
—
—
—
PHEV systems modeling and design tradeoffs analysis
Battery characterization testing and engineering
Developing procedures for PHEV testing and MPG reporting
Evaluating real-world use and performance of PHEVs
• Utility Level
— Assessment of PHEV impacts on utilities
— Exploring synergies between PHEVs and renewables
— V2G opportunities for PHEVs in regulation services
• Advisors to DOE and automotive OEMs – working
to identify and overcome barriers to PHEV adoption
Vision for Transport in Sustainable Communities
PHEVs with renewable electricity and biofuels/hydrogen
Acknowledgements
NREL Center for Transportation Technologies and Systems:
• Terry Penney – Manager, FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies
• Matthew Thornton, Tony Markel, Aaron Brooker, Jeff Gonder –
Vehicle Systems Analysis Team
• Michael O’Keefe – Advanced Power Electronics Team
• Ahmad Pesaran – Energy Storage Team
• Jennifer Elling, Theresa von Kuegelgen – Communications Team
NREL Energy Analysis Office:
• Walter Short, Paul Denholm, Peter Lilienthal
Disclaimer and Government License
This work has been authored by Midwest Research Institute (MRI) under
Contract No. DE-AC36-99GO10337 with the U.S. Department of Energy
(the “DOE”). The United States Government (the “Government”) retains
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