Spatial Data and
Analysis in Support
of Improved Policy
and Planning
Christopher Auricht
chris@auricht.com
John Dixon
John.Dixon@aciar.gov.au
ACIAR
Canberra
21 June 2012
2
Talk outline
 Context
and Background
 Needs
 Issues
and status of spatial data
 Methodology used in developing an updated
farming systems dataset and analysis for SubSaharan Africa
 Status and future work
3
Facts
 According

to CGIAR analysis
One billion of the worlds poor within Africa and
Asia (those living on less than $1 per day) are fed
primarily by:
 hundreds
of millions of small-holder farmers (often with
less than 2 ha of land, several crops, and a cow or
two), or
 Herders (most with fewer than five large animals)
Solution
 Develop
sustainable farming systems that
improve efficiency gains to produce increased
food production
4
One Billion People Suffer Chronic
Hunger and Poverty
5
Scale of Rural Hunger


Nearly one billion people experience debilitation,
health-threatening hunger each year
4 out of 5 of these people are rural farmers
Trends in maize shortage in Zambia
Percentage of farm households with maize shortage
The Hunger
Period
6
Hunger Hotspots Superimposed on Farming
Systems
Source: InterACADEMY Council 2004
8
Background




Business as usual investments in agriculture unlikely to
deliver sustainable solutions in many countries
Numerous issues often identified as barriers to
progress e.g. inefficiencies in program delivery,
political uncertainty etc. These are not the only
problem!
Existing systems (often under stress) have been, and
are expected to continue to accommodate large
increases in population, increasing urbanisation, rising
demand for animal products and competition for
land and water
Forecasts suggesting that current practices will not
stay abreast with population growth, environmental
change and increasing demand for animal products.
9
Needs
 Requires
a strategic approach, an appreciation of
scale, and an understanding of the interactions
between and within systems
10
The current ACIAR project
 Builds
on the work of Dixon et al 2001
www.fao.org/farmingsystems/
11
2001 Farming Systems and Poverty






Global study – part of the World Bank Rural Sector Review
Widely accepted as pioneering body of work – looked at
things as a ‘surface’ across landscape not confined by
country borders
Largely driven by LGP/AEZ and market access,
supplemented by expert opinion
Extensively used to guide investment at the program level
and frame analysis in numerous global studies
Approach focused on high level farming systems within six
developing regions
Involved use of various thematic data layers to underpin
the delineation, characterisation / description and
subsequent analysis of systems
12
Program Application
Major rivers
Major Lakes
National Boundaries
Regional Programme
Countries
#
Major Farming Systems
1. Irrigation
2. Tree crop
3. Forest based
Uganda
Kenya
4. Rice-tree crop
Rwanda
5. Highland perennial
6. Highland temperate mixed
Tanzania
Malawi
7. Root crops
11. Agro-pastoral millet/sorghum
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Mo
za
mb
9. Maize mixed
iqu
e
8. Cereal-root crops mixed
10. Large commercial and smallholder
12. Pastoral
N
13. Sparse (arid)
14. Coastal artisanal fishing
900
0
900 Kilomete rs
13
Hunger Hotspots and Farming Systems
14
Sub-Saharan Update
 Farming
systems website in FAO still one of the
most visited sites within the organisation
 Previous study 10 years old
 Consistent seamless datasets somewhat
limited in original work
 In need of updating as spatial extent of
systems and frame conditions changed e.g.
climate, population, urbanisation, market
access etc.
 Many updated and new datasets available
15
Current Situation




2012 – Large quantity of potential datasets – approx. 300
alone in the Harvest Choice database  longitudinal and
some predictive data now available
GAEZ 3.0 - 1,000’s of datasets representing 100’s of
thematic layers
Challenge – which ones to use and how
Strategic approach




Access and collation
Assess (fit-for-purpose) and Prioritise (currency, coverage,
scale etc)
Process  Products
Disseminate
16
Methodology
 Work
in collaborative fashion with authors and other large
data providers e.g. IFPRI – Harvest Choice, UN-FAO,
ILRI, ICRAF, IIASA, CGIAR others
.
Spatial
and
Tabular
Data
Delineate new Farming
System Boundaries –
Iterative process based
on concept of central
tendancy
Characterise and
describe systems
Statistics and Analysis
17
Approach
 Integration

LGP and Market access
 Supporting







of new datasets –
Datasets
Population (rural, urban, total)
Livestock – cattle, sheep, goats, poultry, LU and
TLU
Crop areas and production
Yield gaps
Protected areas
Poverty  $2.00 and $1.25 /day
Nutrition
18
Hunger, Poverty & Productivity
Spatial Covariates/Proxies & Analytical Flow
Terrain,
Demography,
Infrastructure,
Admin Units
Production
Environment &
Constraints
Production
Systems &
Performance
Maize
Yield
Potential
t[DM]/ha
Interventions/ Linkage to
Macro
Responses
Models
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
100
80
60
Fertilizer Application Rate
kg[N]/ha
40
20
0
40
30
20
10
Irrigation
0
Threshold
NA
% of Available
Soil Water
Settlements,
ports,
markets
Administrative
Units
Profitability
of
small
irrigation
Runoff
Profitability
Port
Market
Road,
Slope,
Elevation
travel
rail,
travel
aspect,
times
river,
times
drainage
&
ICT
costs
&
Pests
networks
costs
Cropland
Drought
&Agroecological
Diseases
extent
Incidence
(Maize
Value
& Crop
intensity
Zones
&Stem
ofSeverity
Production
Yield
Borer)
Farming
Responses
per
Systems
Quantity
Rural
Distribution
to Fertilizer
Inputs,
Person
of
Nutrients
Management,
ofscale
Aggregate
Welfare
Removed
Benefits
to CC
FPUs
Distribution
&
Yields
Crop
Suitability:
Rainfed
Wheat
Source: HarvestChoice 2010
19
Changes between 2001 and 2012
20
Updated FS Boundaries and LGP
21
Yield Gap – Aggregate of Major Crops
22
23
Big questions for management and policy
 What
is it?
 Where is it?
 What are its characteristics and how does it
operate ?
 What are the risks/threats ?
 What are the opportunities (Research / Extension) ?
 How changing with time ?
 Evaluation and Performance
24
Spatial data
 Tool
to support process
 Understand
 Analyse
 Develop interventions
 Monitor
 Not the answer in itself 



has limitations
Fit for purpose
Complement with expert knowledge
25
Thanks
 Acknowledgements








ACIAR
IFPRI – Harvest Choice
CGIAR
ILRI
ICRAF
FAO
IIASA
others
 Questions
& Discussion