INSTITUTE FOR DEMOCRACY AND MEDIATION CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN & SECURITY AFFAIRS (CESA) Albania’s membership to NATO Costs and Benefits Col (R) Foto DURO IDM Senior Researcher 1 Foto DURO F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 I. MEMBERSHIP COSTS 2 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 I. MEMBERSHIP COSTS 1. Adapt ourselves 2. Contribute to NATO 3 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 MEMBERSHIP COSTS 1. Adapt ourselves a. Legislation b. Conceptual/Doctrinal changes c. Structural changes d. Modernization e. Make our environment secure/reliable to NATO 2. Contribute to NATO a. “Common Fund” b. NATO led missions c. NATO routine activities d. NATO permanent agencies e. NATO integrated structures f. Putting our infrastructure at NATO disposal F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 4 MEMBERSHIP COSTS 1. Adapt ourselves a. Legislation b. Conceptual/Doctrinal changes c. Structural changes d. Modernization e. Make our environment secure/reliable to NATO 2. Contribute to NATO a. “Common Fund” b. NATO led missions c. NATO routine activities d. NATO permanent agencies e. NATO integrated structures f. Putting our infrastructure at NATO disposal F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 5 CONCEPTUAL/DOCTRINAL CHANGES Long Term Development RESOURCE PEACE TIME STATIONING & PLAN MANAGEMENT INFRASTRUCTURE 2007-2020 STRATEGY NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY HUMAN NATIONAL MILITARY STRATEGY PLAN LOGISTIC SUPPORT TRANSPORTATION PLAN PLAN EXCESS AMMUNITION DEMOLISHING PLAN MODERNISATION PLAN 2007-2012 GUIDING POLICIES JOINT DOCTRINE AAF ARMY DOCTRINE of AAF F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 NAVY DOCTRINE of AAF AIR FORCE DOCTRINE LOGISTICS DOCTRINE 6 CONCEPTUAL/DOCTRINAL CHANGES Long Term Development RESOURCE PEACE TIME STATIONING & PLAN MANAGEMENT INFRASTRUCTURE 2007-2020 STRATEGY NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY HUMAN NATIONAL MILITARY STRATEGY PLAN LOGISTIC SUPPORT TRANSPORTATION PLAN PLAN EXCESS AMMUNITION DEMOLISHING PLAN MODERNISATION PLAN 2007-2012 GUIDING POLICIES JOINT DOCTRINE AAF ARMY DOCTRINE of AAF F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 NAVY DOCTRINE of AAF AIR FORCE DOCTRINE LOGISTICS DOCTRINE 7 LONG TERM VISION Money allocation 50 (billion Leks) Long Term Development 45 PLAN 2007-2020 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 New economic situation calls for revision and adjustments based on a more realistic forecast 1 $ ~ 100 Leks F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 R&D Infrastr Equipment O & M8 Personnel Strategic Defense Review Coordinate National Security Strategy Roles and Missions Scenarios Interpret NSS process Existing Force Structure Future Force Structure Current and Planned Capability Capability Requirement SDR process Decision Gap Analysis Resource Constraints Affordability Analysis Force Development Options Operational Requirement Conditions Standards Alternative Force Structures Operational Capabilities Capability Goals / Target Levels Capability Goals / Target Levels Decision Publish Recommendations 9 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 SDR process – contingencies 1- Defense of the Country – Article 5 inside Albania – Non-article 5 inside Albania 2 - Contribution to International Peace and Stability – Article 5 outside Albania – NonArt5 Crisis Response Operation 3 - Protection of Constitutional Order 4 - Public Safety – Terrorist attack / threats 5 - Civil Emergencies 6 - Cyber Security 10 13 group scenarios, representing 33 “most likely” security scenarios Foto DURO F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 MEMBERSHIP COSTS 1. Adapt ourselves a. Legislation b. Conceptual/Doctrinal changes c. Structural changes d. Modernization e. Make our environment secure/reliable to NATO 2. Contribute to NATO a. “Common Fund” b. NATO led missions c. NATO routine activities d. NATO permanent agencies e. NATO integrated structures f. Putting our infrastructure at NATO disposal F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 11 STRUCTURAL CHANGES NATO – a dynamic organization – To reflect changes in security environment – AAF focused more on: • Light infantry units (fit for diverse terrain and urban operations) • Airborne type of troops • Medium lift helicopters • Field service units – “Niche capabilities” 12 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 13 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 SOME PRINCIPLES OF THE NEW STRUCTURE • More suitable for a small armed force • More direct link between GS and units • Units – role - “force provider” • Joint Oper Centre – “force user” • Improve “teeth to tail” ratio • Authorized strength - 10 000 personnel (reduction by 2000) 14 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 AAF authorized force 18000 Personnel 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Personnel 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 Officers 1000 NCO 500 Professionals 0 Conscripts HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT STRATEGY 15 Civilians F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 MEMBERSHIP COSTS 1. Adapt ourselves a. Legislation b. Conceptual/Doctrinal changes c. Structural changes d. Modernization e. Make our environment secure/reliable to NATO 2. Contribute to NATO a. “Common Fund” b. NATO led missions c. NATO routine activities d. NATO permanent agencies e. NATO integrated structures f. Putting our infrastructure at NATO disposal F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 16 MODERNIZATION (1. To adapt ourselves) (Million Lek) 17 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 18 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 MEMBERSHIP COSTS 1. Adapt ourselves a. Legislation b. Conceptual/Doctrinal changes c. Structural changes d. Modernization e. Make our environment secure/reliable to NATO 2. Contribute to NATO a. “Common Fund” b. NATO led missions c. NATO routine activities d. NATO permanent agencies e. NATO integrated structures f. Putting our infrastructure at NATO disposal F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 19 SECURE ENVIRONMENT AT NATO DISPOSAL (1. To adapt ourselves) • The Albanian Defense establishment currently operates more than 25 munitions depots all over the country. • They contain almost 100,000 tons of various types of munitions. • About 90,000 tons of the munitions in the Albanian Defense inventory were declared excess. • Difficult to guard and manage because of the significant reduction of AAF and concentration to the main centers • Expected to be finalized by end 2013 20 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 MEMBERSHIP COSTS 1. Adapt ourselves a. Legislation b. Conceptual/Doctrinal changes c. Structural changes d. Modernization e. Make our environment secure/reliable to NATO 2. Contribute to NATO a. “Common Fund” b. NATO led missions c. NATO routine activities d. NATO permanent agencies e. NATO integrated structures f. Putting our infrastructure at NATO disposal F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 21 NATO recources • • • • • Common-Fund – Military Budget – Civil Budget – NSIP (NATO Security & Investment Program) Common Fund 10% 36% Civil Budget 54% Military Budget NSIP Multinational Budget – AWACS – AGS Contributions “in kind” Trust Funds ~ 2.5 miliardë €/vit Albania – 0.0843% Albania in Kosovo Trust Fund (500,000 Euro/year) National – All systems (with some exemptions for major systems) are member nations responsibility. They are put at NATO disposal according to the situation 22 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 NATO Civil Budget 22% Consultation & Cooper with Partners 36% 14% Alliance Capabilities 28% Support to Operations Public relations NATO Military Budget 1% 7% 6% 3% 21% C3 Support 16% NAEW&C 27% Air C2 Other 13% 16% 6% Command Struct 21% 27% F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 6% CRO 13% TEE 7% Pensions 6% R&D 3% PfP 1% 23 MEMBERSHIP COSTS 1. Adapt ourselves a. Legislation b. Conceptual/Doctrinal changes c. Structural changes d. Modernization e. Make our environment secure/reliable to NATO 2. Contribute to NATO a. “Common Fund” b. NATO led missions c. NATO routine activities d. NATO permanent agencies e. NATO integrated structures f. Putting our infrastructure at NATO disposal F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 24 Albania Force Contribution SFOR (1996) 1 Coy ALTHEA (2008) KOSEOD Team ACTIVE ENDEAVOR 1 OMLT (2011) (with USNJNG) Herat (2007) 2 COYs Kabul (2002) 1 PLT End EndFrreed Freed (2004) (2004) 11Coy COY Kandahar (2010) SOF (COY - ) Tchad(2008) (2008) Tchad Coy 11Coy 25 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 AAF authorized force 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 500 Force contribution over the time 8.6% Personnel Personnel 18000 7.8% 400 300 200 3.5% 0.9% 100 0 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 26 % relative to Land Forces CAPABILITY TARGETS (ALB) OPER PERS/STRUCT INFO&SECUR LAND 28 L-0001 LAND OP/TRAIN 29 L-0020 IED Countering 30L-0035 NAVY 43 M-0001 MARITIME OP/TRAIN 44 M-2200 Maritime Interdict AIR 47 A-0001 AIR OP/TRAIN 03 G-0360 Secur Coop (NATO) 04 G-0630 Nation HUMINT 07 G-2781 CYBER DEFENSE 10 Force Contrib 12 L-0048 Extreme Climate Cappabil 35 G-3023 C2 MODE 5 IFF 32 G-3140 33 L-0315 Tactic Air Con L-0895 Individ Combat Sys 38 L-0905 Indirect Fire Support HOST.N.SUP 06G-2780 Network Stabil Reconstr Spec 22G-4490 14G-3781 31 15 G-3782 CBRN Protect Enab Commun 08 G-2860 Network ENAB INFO SYS ISTAR OTHER 13G-3780 PROTEC L-0047 CS Stabil Recons Coord Stab Recons Pre-deploy CONTRIBUT 09 G-2861 Network ENAB SERVICES 23G-4570 Bord. Sec.Equip 11 G-3070 Network Eabl INTEROPER 24G-4571 Bord Sec.Pers.Train 45 M-2842 MARIT COMUNIC G-4572 Bord. Sec Inf&Comun 25 48 A-1459 Air Navig AIDS & Radios 34 L-0410 36 L-0890 37 KOMUNIC Glob.Navig.Sat Sys 11 CT-s L-0880 NonLethal Cap/Weap Urb.Op Combin Arms CSS CS LEGAL 26 G-4573 Bord Sec. Languag 17 CT-s 46 M-2920 MARIT AWARE 49 A-2900 NATINADS F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 8 CT-s 27G-4574 Bord Sec. Organiz 27 CAPABILITY TARGETS (ALB) OPER PERS/STRUCT STRUCT CJTF 01 OTHER G-0050 COLLECTIVE DEFENSE 02 HOST.N.SUP CSS CS LEGAL TRANSPORT SUPPLY GENERAL 05 G-2702 G-0355 LANGUAGE REQ 40 CJTF HQ Augment 17 41 L-3540 PSYOPS Elem G-3783 CIMIC Teams 4 CT-s 1 CT 16G-4055 NATO G-4153 RSOM Supp Chain Management 18 G-4156 Avia Support 19 G-4174 Strat Move 20 G-4211 Nat.Support Depl. Forces 21 G-4244 Medic Support 39 L-1000 Eng Mob-Count-Surv 42 8 CT-s L-4212 CSS Contribution 28 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 CAPABILITY TARGETS (ALB) OPER PERS/STRUCT INFO&SECUR LAND 28 L-0001 LAND OP/TRAIN 29 L-0020 IED Countering 30L-0035 NAVY 43 M-0001 MARITIME OP/TRAIN 44 M-2200 Maritime Interdict AIR 47 A-0001 AIR OP/TRAIN 03 G-0360 Secur Coop (NATO) 04 G-0630 Nation HUMINT 07 G-2781 CYBER DEFENSE 10 Force Contrib 12 L-0048 Extreme Climate Cappabil 35 G-3023 C2 MODE 5 IFF 32 G-3140 33 L-0315 Tactic Air Con L-0895 Individ Combat Sys 38 L-0905 Indirect Fire Support HOST.N.SUP 06G-2780 Network Stabil Reconstr Spec 22G-4490 14G-3781 31 15 G-3782 CBRN Protect Enab Commun 08 G-2860 Network ENAB INFO SYS ISTAR OTHER 13G-3780 PROTEC L-0047 CS Stabil Recons Coord Stab Recons Pre-deploy CONTRIBUT 09 G-2861 Network ENAB SERVICES 23G-4570 Bord. Sec.Equip 11 G-3070 Network Eabl INTEROPER 24G-4571 Bord Sec.Pers.Train 45 M-2842 MARIT COMUNIC G-4572 Bord. Sec Inf&Comun 25 48 A-1459 Air Navig AIDS & Radios 34L-0410 36 L-0890 37 KOMUNIC Glob.Navig.Sat Sys 11 CT-s L-0880 NonLethal Cap/Weap Urb.Op Combin Arms CSS CS LEGAL 26 G-4573 Bord Sec. Languag 17 CT-s 46 M-2920 MARIT AWARE 49 A-2900 NATINADS F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 8 CT-s 27G-4574 Bord Sec. Organiz 29 CAPABILITY TARGETS (ALB) OPER PERS/STRUCT LEGAL CS CSS HOST.N.SUP OTHER Minimum of 1,000 personnel. Capable of: L-0035 Force Contribution • tactical deployment by helicopters in all terrain • high intensity war fighting and manoeuvre in all terrain • capable of joint and combined expeditionary warfare • tactical employment in extreme weather conditions • counter-insurgency, peace support and other manpower intensive operations • movement in own vehicles in tactical formations and action and manoeuvre on foot. • integrating into a higher, brigade level formation • independent operations for 5 combat days of supplies 30 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 MEMBERSHIP COSTS 1. Adapt ourselves a. Legislation b. Conceptual/Doctrinal changes c. Structural changes d. Modernization e. Make our environment secure/reliable to NATO 2. Contribute to NATO a. “Common Fund” b. NATO led missions c. NATO routine activities d. NATO permanent agencies e. NATO integrated structures f. Putting our infrastructure at NATO disposal F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 32 Participation in NATO routine activities – About 420 committees, subcommittees, commissions, working groups in NATO – Hard to calculate an approximate cost of participation in all of them. – Selected to participate - 45 – Albania – declared to host 1 multinational EX per year. 33 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 Participating in a variety of NATO structures /initiatives: – NATINEADS – Air surveillance – • Stage I – use/exploit air picture provided by two NATO CAOCs • Stage II – develop capacities (starting from 2012) to provide data (1 stationary radar followed (if) by -2 mobile) Air Policing • To be provided by NATO • Albania to provide support (emergency landing, C-SAR, Air-picture data exchange…) 34 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 MEMBERSHIP COSTS 1. Adapt ourselves a. Legislation b. Conceptual/Doctrinal changes c. Structural changes d. Modernization e. Make our environment secure/reliable to NATO 2. Contribute to NATO a. “Common Fund” b. NATO led missions c. NATO routine activities d. NATO permanent agencies e. NATO integrated structures f. Putting our infrastructure at NATO disposal F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 35 Participation in NATO PE structures – Planned about 26 military personnel by mid 2010 to be assigned in NATO integrated structures (actually 28 till 2011) – More interest on IT, operations, CIMIC – Two folded cost: • Financial • Loss of some of the most qualitative personnel from our staffs/units 36 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 37 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 MEMBERSHIP COSTS 1. Adapt ourselves a. Legislation b. Conceptual/Doctrinal changes c. Structural changes d. Modernization e. Make our environment secure/reliable to NATO 2. Contribute to NATO a. “Common Fund” b. NATO led missions c. NATO routine activities d. NATO permanent agencies e. NATO integrated structures f. Putting our infrastructure at NATO disposal F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 38 Key infrastructure available to NATO (2. Contribution to NATO) – HNS – Initial Operational Capability (IOC) – Catalogued: • • designated seaports, airports, communication hubs, etc. Military installations (Command posts, Operation centers, training ranges). – Services to NATO units (transiting or deployed in our country) • • • Host Nation Support Movement coordination and information Cargo processing (in airports, seaports) – HNS to meet NATO standards (not simply put at NATO disposal) • Still a “grand master plan” to be finalized (about the requirements and the cost to prepare key infrastructure for NATO needs) 39 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 II. MEMBERSHIP BENEFITS 40 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 II. MEMBERSHIP BENEFITS a. Political/economic perspective b. Security/defense perspective 41 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 a. Political/economic benefits • Message of a country meeting the standards: - Functioning Democracy - Rule of law - Free market economy • A country with potentials - For foreign investors to invest - As a reliable partner in bilateral/multilateral initiatives In general, NATO membership is a strong “motor” for change, improvement and preparation for EU integration 42 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 GDP Growth Data/year 2001 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 GDP (million euro) 4541 7828 8870 8693 8872 9140 9277 GDP growth rate 7.9% 5.9% 7.5% 3.3% 3.7% 3.0% 1.5% 10000 (million euro) 8000 6000 GDP (million euro) 4000 2000 0 YEARS Source: Albania 2012 Progress Report, EU Commission Staff working paper 43 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 Net foreign direct investment (FDI) (million euro) Year Net foreign direct investment (FDI) (million euro) 2001 2007 2008 231 492 731 2009 732 2010 2011 837 754 2012 900 Million Euros 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 YEARS FDI (million Euro) Source: Albania 2012 Progress Report, EU Commission Staff working paper 44 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 b. Security/defense perspective a) Strategic level: • Part of the most successful and long-lived political-military alliance in history • Integration into a large family of nations (collective defense) • Part of important tables of decision making • Part of sub-structures dealing with: - Defense planning - Intelligence sharing - Modernization of systems/equipment - Education and training (Defense Academies Consortium) - Air Defense (NATO has taken over Albanian air space surveillance/protection) - Maritime defense (Operation “Active Endeavour”) - Informatization / automation and cyber defense 45 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 b. Security/defense perspective b) Operational level: • The package of Capability Targets - Orients AAF to a more effective military “better fit for mission” - Better linkage between ambition – resources (80% of Albanian defense resources for this package) • Useful Lessons Learned (from NATO led missions abroad – ISAF) 46 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 b. Security/defense perspective c) Tactical level: • Opportunity for Albanian militaries (officers, NCOs, soldiers) to operate in multinational environments/missions • More effective training, based on real challenges, mostly for: - Operating in urban environments - Asymmetric threats - In very demanding/diverse missions by perspective of culture, religion, traditions etc. 47 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13 THANK YOU! QUESTIONS ? 48 F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13