INSTITUTE FOR DEMOCRACY AND MEDIATION
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN & SECURITY AFFAIRS (CESA)
Albania’s membership to NATO
Costs and Benefits
Col (R) Foto DURO
IDM Senior Researcher
1
Foto
DURO
F.Duro
IDM
– 23.04.13
I. MEMBERSHIP COSTS
2
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
I. MEMBERSHIP COSTS
1. Adapt ourselves
2. Contribute to NATO
3
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
MEMBERSHIP COSTS
1. Adapt ourselves
a. Legislation
b. Conceptual/Doctrinal changes
c. Structural changes
d. Modernization
e. Make our environment secure/reliable to NATO
2. Contribute to NATO
a. “Common Fund”
b. NATO led missions
c. NATO routine activities
d. NATO permanent agencies
e. NATO integrated structures
f. Putting our infrastructure at NATO disposal
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
4
MEMBERSHIP COSTS
1. Adapt ourselves
a. Legislation
b. Conceptual/Doctrinal changes
c. Structural changes
d. Modernization
e. Make our environment secure/reliable to NATO
2. Contribute to NATO
a. “Common Fund”
b. NATO led missions
c. NATO routine activities
d. NATO permanent agencies
e. NATO integrated structures
f. Putting our infrastructure at NATO disposal
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
5
CONCEPTUAL/DOCTRINAL CHANGES
Long Term
Development
RESOURCE
PEACE TIME
STATIONING &
PLAN
MANAGEMENT
INFRASTRUCTURE
2007-2020
STRATEGY
NATIONAL
SECURITY
STRATEGY
HUMAN
NATIONAL
MILITARY
STRATEGY
PLAN
LOGISTIC
SUPPORT
TRANSPORTATION
PLAN
PLAN
EXCESS
AMMUNITION
DEMOLISHING
PLAN
MODERNISATION
PLAN
2007-2012
GUIDING
POLICIES
JOINT
DOCTRINE
AAF
ARMY
DOCTRINE
of
AAF
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
NAVY
DOCTRINE
of
AAF
AIR FORCE
DOCTRINE
LOGISTICS
DOCTRINE
6
CONCEPTUAL/DOCTRINAL CHANGES
Long Term
Development
RESOURCE
PEACE TIME
STATIONING &
PLAN
MANAGEMENT
INFRASTRUCTURE
2007-2020
STRATEGY
NATIONAL
SECURITY
STRATEGY
HUMAN
NATIONAL
MILITARY
STRATEGY
PLAN
LOGISTIC
SUPPORT
TRANSPORTATION
PLAN
PLAN
EXCESS
AMMUNITION
DEMOLISHING
PLAN
MODERNISATION
PLAN
2007-2012
GUIDING
POLICIES
JOINT
DOCTRINE
AAF
ARMY
DOCTRINE
of
AAF
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
NAVY
DOCTRINE
of
AAF
AIR FORCE
DOCTRINE
LOGISTICS
DOCTRINE
7
LONG TERM VISION
Money allocation
50
(billion Leks)
Long Term
Development
45
PLAN
2007-2020
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
New economic situation calls for revision and adjustments
based on a more realistic forecast
1 $ ~ 100 Leks
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
R&D
Infrastr
Equipment
O & M8
Personnel
Strategic Defense Review
Coordinate
National
Security
Strategy
Roles and
Missions
Scenarios
Interpret
NSS process
Existing
Force
Structure
Future
Force
Structure
Current
and Planned
Capability
Capability
Requirement
SDR
process
Decision
Gap Analysis
Resource
Constraints
Affordability
Analysis
Force
Development
Options
Operational
Requirement
Conditions
Standards
Alternative
Force
Structures
Operational
Capabilities
Capability Goals /
Target Levels
Capability Goals /
Target Levels
Decision
Publish
Recommendations
9
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
SDR process – contingencies
1- Defense of the Country
– Article 5 inside Albania
– Non-article 5 inside Albania
2 - Contribution to International Peace and Stability
– Article 5 outside Albania
– NonArt5 Crisis Response Operation
3 - Protection of Constitutional Order
4 - Public Safety
– Terrorist attack / threats
5 - Civil Emergencies
6 - Cyber Security
10
13 group scenarios, representing 33 “most likely” security scenarios
Foto
DURO
F.Duro
IDM
– 23.04.13
MEMBERSHIP COSTS
1. Adapt ourselves
a. Legislation
b. Conceptual/Doctrinal changes
c. Structural changes
d. Modernization
e. Make our environment secure/reliable to NATO
2. Contribute to NATO
a. “Common Fund”
b. NATO led missions
c. NATO routine activities
d. NATO permanent agencies
e. NATO integrated structures
f. Putting our infrastructure at NATO disposal
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
11
STRUCTURAL CHANGES
NATO – a dynamic organization
– To reflect changes in security environment
– AAF focused more on:
• Light infantry units (fit for diverse terrain and urban
operations)
• Airborne type of troops
• Medium lift helicopters
• Field service units
– “Niche capabilities”
12
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13
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
SOME PRINCIPLES OF THE NEW
STRUCTURE
• More suitable for a small armed force
• More direct link between GS and units
• Units – role - “force provider”
• Joint Oper Centre – “force user”
• Improve “teeth to tail” ratio
• Authorized strength - 10 000 personnel (reduction by
2000)
14
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
AAF authorized force
18000
Personnel
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Personnel
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
Officers
1000
NCO
500
Professionals
0
Conscripts
HUMAN
RESOURCE
MANAGEMENT
STRATEGY
15
Civilians
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
MEMBERSHIP COSTS
1. Adapt ourselves
a. Legislation
b. Conceptual/Doctrinal changes
c. Structural changes
d. Modernization
e. Make our environment secure/reliable to NATO
2. Contribute to NATO
a. “Common Fund”
b. NATO led missions
c. NATO routine activities
d. NATO permanent agencies
e. NATO integrated structures
f. Putting our infrastructure at NATO disposal
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
16
MODERNIZATION
(1. To adapt ourselves)
(Million Lek)
17
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18
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
MEMBERSHIP COSTS
1. Adapt ourselves
a. Legislation
b. Conceptual/Doctrinal changes
c. Structural changes
d. Modernization
e. Make our environment secure/reliable to NATO
2. Contribute to NATO
a. “Common Fund”
b. NATO led missions
c. NATO routine activities
d. NATO permanent agencies
e. NATO integrated structures
f. Putting our infrastructure at NATO disposal
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
19
SECURE ENVIRONMENT
AT NATO DISPOSAL
(1. To adapt ourselves)
• The Albanian Defense
establishment currently
operates more than 25
munitions depots all over
the country.
• They contain almost
100,000 tons of various
types of munitions.
• About 90,000 tons of the
munitions in the Albanian
Defense inventory were
declared excess.
• Difficult to guard and
manage because of the
significant reduction of AAF
and concentration to the
main centers
• Expected to be finalized by
end 2013
20
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
MEMBERSHIP COSTS
1. Adapt ourselves
a. Legislation
b. Conceptual/Doctrinal changes
c. Structural changes
d. Modernization
e. Make our environment secure/reliable to NATO
2. Contribute to NATO
a. “Common Fund”
b. NATO led missions
c. NATO routine activities
d. NATO permanent agencies
e. NATO integrated structures
f. Putting our infrastructure at NATO disposal
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
21
NATO recources
•
•
•
•
•
Common-Fund
– Military Budget
– Civil Budget
– NSIP (NATO Security &
Investment Program)
Common Fund
10%
36%
Civil Budget
54%
Military Budget
NSIP
Multinational Budget
– AWACS
– AGS
Contributions “in kind”
Trust Funds
~ 2.5 miliardë €/vit
Albania – 0.0843%
Albania in Kosovo Trust
Fund (500,000 Euro/year)
National
– All systems (with some exemptions for major systems) are member
nations responsibility. They are put at NATO disposal according to the
situation
22
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
NATO Civil Budget
22%
Consultation & Cooper
with Partners
36%
14%
Alliance Capabilities
28%
Support to Operations
Public relations
NATO Military Budget
1%
7%
6%
3%
21%
C3 Support
16%
NAEW&C
27%
Air C2 Other
13%
16%
6%
Command Struct 21%
27%
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
6%
CRO
13%
TEE
7%
Pensions
6%
R&D
3%
PfP
1%
23
MEMBERSHIP COSTS
1. Adapt ourselves
a. Legislation
b. Conceptual/Doctrinal changes
c. Structural changes
d. Modernization
e. Make our environment secure/reliable to NATO
2. Contribute to NATO
a. “Common Fund”
b. NATO led missions
c. NATO routine activities
d. NATO permanent agencies
e. NATO integrated structures
f. Putting our infrastructure at NATO disposal
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
24
Albania Force Contribution
SFOR (1996)
1 Coy
ALTHEA (2008)
KOSEOD Team
ACTIVE
ENDEAVOR
1 OMLT (2011)
(with USNJNG)
Herat (2007)
2 COYs
Kabul (2002)
1 PLT
End
EndFrreed
Freed (2004)
(2004)
11Coy
COY
Kandahar (2010)
SOF (COY - )
Tchad(2008)
(2008)
Tchad
Coy
11Coy
25
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
AAF authorized force
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
500
Force contribution over the time
8.6%
Personnel
Personnel
18000
7.8%
400
300
200
3.5%
0.9%
100
0
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
26
% relative to Land Forces
CAPABILITY TARGETS (ALB)
OPER
PERS/STRUCT
INFO&SECUR
LAND
28
L-0001 LAND
OP/TRAIN
29
L-0020 IED
Countering
30L-0035
NAVY
43
M-0001
MARITIME
OP/TRAIN
44 M-2200
Maritime
Interdict
AIR
47 A-0001 AIR
OP/TRAIN
03
G-0360
Secur
Coop (NATO)
04
G-0630
Nation HUMINT
07
G-2781
CYBER DEFENSE
10
Force
Contrib
12
L-0048 Extreme
Climate Cappabil
35
G-3023
C2 MODE 5 IFF
32
G-3140
33
L-0315
Tactic
Air Con
L-0895 Individ
Combat Sys
38 L-0905
Indirect
Fire Support
HOST.N.SUP
06G-2780 Network
Stabil
Reconstr Spec
22G-4490
14G-3781
31
15 G-3782
CBRN
Protect
Enab Commun
08
G-2860 Network
ENAB INFO SYS
ISTAR
OTHER
13G-3780
PROTEC
L-0047 CS
Stabil
Recons Coord
Stab
Recons
Pre-deploy
CONTRIBUT
09
G-2861 Network
ENAB SERVICES
23G-4570
Bord.
Sec.Equip
11
G-3070 Network
Eabl INTEROPER
24G-4571
Bord
Sec.Pers.Train
45
M-2842
MARIT
COMUNIC
G-4572
Bord. Sec
Inf&Comun
25
48
A-1459 Air Navig
AIDS & Radios
34 L-0410
36 L-0890
37
KOMUNIC
Glob.Navig.Sat Sys
11 CT-s
L-0880 NonLethal Cap/Weap
Urb.Op
Combin Arms
CSS
CS
LEGAL
26
G-4573 Bord
Sec. Languag
17 CT-s
46
M-2920
MARIT
AWARE
49
A-2900
NATINADS
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
8 CT-s
27G-4574
Bord
Sec. Organiz
27
CAPABILITY TARGETS (ALB)
OPER
PERS/STRUCT
STRUCT
CJTF
01
OTHER
G-0050
COLLECTIVE
DEFENSE
02
HOST.N.SUP
CSS
CS
LEGAL
TRANSPORT
SUPPLY
GENERAL
05 G-2702
G-0355
LANGUAGE REQ
40
CJTF
HQ Augment
17
41
L-3540
PSYOPS Elem
G-3783
CIMIC Teams
4 CT-s
1 CT
16G-4055 NATO
G-4153
RSOM
Supp Chain
Management
18
G-4156
Avia Support
19
G-4174
Strat Move
20
G-4211
Nat.Support
Depl. Forces
21 G-4244
Medic
Support
39
L-1000 Eng
Mob-Count-Surv
42
8 CT-s
L-4212 CSS
Contribution
28
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
CAPABILITY TARGETS (ALB)
OPER
PERS/STRUCT
INFO&SECUR
LAND
28
L-0001 LAND
OP/TRAIN
29
L-0020 IED
Countering
30L-0035
NAVY
43
M-0001
MARITIME
OP/TRAIN
44 M-2200
Maritime
Interdict
AIR
47 A-0001 AIR
OP/TRAIN
03
G-0360
Secur
Coop (NATO)
04
G-0630
Nation HUMINT
07
G-2781
CYBER DEFENSE
10
Force
Contrib
12
L-0048 Extreme
Climate Cappabil
35
G-3023
C2 MODE 5 IFF
32
G-3140
33
L-0315
Tactic
Air Con
L-0895 Individ
Combat Sys
38 L-0905
Indirect
Fire Support
HOST.N.SUP
06G-2780 Network
Stabil
Reconstr Spec
22G-4490
14G-3781
31
15 G-3782
CBRN
Protect
Enab Commun
08
G-2860 Network
ENAB INFO SYS
ISTAR
OTHER
13G-3780
PROTEC
L-0047 CS
Stabil
Recons Coord
Stab
Recons
Pre-deploy
CONTRIBUT
09
G-2861 Network
ENAB SERVICES
23G-4570
Bord.
Sec.Equip
11
G-3070 Network
Eabl INTEROPER
24G-4571
Bord
Sec.Pers.Train
45
M-2842
MARIT
COMUNIC
G-4572
Bord. Sec
Inf&Comun
25
48
A-1459 Air Navig
AIDS & Radios
34L-0410
36 L-0890
37
KOMUNIC
Glob.Navig.Sat Sys
11 CT-s
L-0880 NonLethal Cap/Weap
Urb.Op
Combin Arms
CSS
CS
LEGAL
26
G-4573 Bord
Sec. Languag
17 CT-s
46
M-2920
MARIT
AWARE
49
A-2900
NATINADS
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
8 CT-s
27G-4574
Bord
Sec. Organiz
29
CAPABILITY TARGETS (ALB)
OPER
PERS/STRUCT
LEGAL
CS
CSS
HOST.N.SUP
OTHER
Minimum of 1,000 personnel.
Capable of:
L-0035
Force
Contribution
• tactical deployment by helicopters in all terrain
• high intensity war fighting and manoeuvre in all
terrain
• capable of joint and combined expeditionary warfare
• tactical employment in extreme weather conditions
• counter-insurgency, peace support and other
manpower intensive operations
• movement in own vehicles in tactical formations and
action and manoeuvre on foot.
• integrating into a higher, brigade level formation
• independent operations for 5 combat days of supplies 30
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
MEMBERSHIP COSTS
1. Adapt ourselves
a. Legislation
b. Conceptual/Doctrinal changes
c. Structural changes
d. Modernization
e. Make our environment secure/reliable to NATO
2. Contribute to NATO
a. “Common Fund”
b. NATO led missions
c. NATO routine activities
d. NATO permanent agencies
e. NATO integrated structures
f. Putting our infrastructure at NATO disposal
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
32
Participation in NATO routine activities
– About 420 committees, subcommittees, commissions,
working groups in NATO
– Hard to calculate an approximate cost of participation
in all of them.
– Selected to participate - 45
– Albania – declared to host 1 multinational EX per year.
33
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
Participating in a variety of NATO
structures /initiatives:
–
NATINEADS
–
Air surveillance
–
•
Stage I – use/exploit air picture provided by two NATO
CAOCs
•
Stage II – develop capacities (starting from 2012) to
provide data (1 stationary radar followed (if) by -2 mobile)
Air Policing
•
To be provided by NATO
•
Albania to provide support (emergency landing, C-SAR,
Air-picture data exchange…)
34
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
MEMBERSHIP COSTS
1. Adapt ourselves
a. Legislation
b. Conceptual/Doctrinal changes
c. Structural changes
d. Modernization
e. Make our environment secure/reliable to NATO
2. Contribute to NATO
a. “Common Fund”
b. NATO led missions
c. NATO routine activities
d. NATO permanent agencies
e. NATO integrated structures
f. Putting our infrastructure at NATO disposal
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
35
Participation in NATO PE structures
– Planned about 26 military personnel by mid 2010 to be
assigned in NATO integrated structures (actually 28 till
2011)
– More interest on IT, operations, CIMIC
– Two folded cost:
• Financial
• Loss of some of the most qualitative personnel from our
staffs/units
36
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
37
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
MEMBERSHIP COSTS
1. Adapt ourselves
a. Legislation
b. Conceptual/Doctrinal changes
c. Structural changes
d. Modernization
e. Make our environment secure/reliable to NATO
2. Contribute to NATO
a. “Common Fund”
b. NATO led missions
c. NATO routine activities
d. NATO permanent agencies
e. NATO integrated structures
f. Putting our infrastructure at NATO disposal
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
38
Key infrastructure available to NATO
(2. Contribution to NATO)
– HNS – Initial Operational Capability (IOC)
– Catalogued:
•
•
designated seaports, airports, communication hubs, etc.
Military installations (Command posts, Operation centers,
training ranges).
– Services to NATO units (transiting or deployed in our country)
•
•
•
Host Nation Support
Movement coordination and information
Cargo processing (in airports, seaports)
– HNS to meet NATO standards (not simply put at NATO
disposal)
•
Still a “grand master plan” to be finalized (about the
requirements and the cost to prepare key infrastructure for
NATO needs)
39
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
II. MEMBERSHIP BENEFITS
40
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
II. MEMBERSHIP BENEFITS
a. Political/economic perspective
b. Security/defense perspective
41
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
a. Political/economic benefits
• Message of a country meeting the standards:
- Functioning Democracy
- Rule of law
- Free market economy
• A country with potentials
- For foreign investors to invest
- As a reliable partner in bilateral/multilateral
initiatives
In general, NATO membership is a strong “motor” for
change, improvement and preparation for EU integration
42
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
GDP Growth
Data/year
2001
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
GDP (million euro)
4541
7828
8870
8693
8872
9140
9277
GDP growth rate
7.9%
5.9%
7.5%
3.3%
3.7%
3.0%
1.5%
10000
(million euro)
8000
6000
GDP (million euro)
4000
2000
0
YEARS
Source: Albania 2012 Progress Report, EU Commission Staff working paper
43
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
Net foreign direct investment (FDI)
(million euro)
Year
Net foreign direct investment
(FDI) (million euro)
2001
2007
2008
231
492
731
2009
732
2010
2011
837
754
2012
900
Million Euros
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
YEARS
FDI (million Euro)
Source: Albania 2012 Progress Report, EU Commission Staff working paper
44
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
b. Security/defense perspective
a) Strategic level:
• Part of the most successful and long-lived political-military
alliance in history
• Integration into a large family of nations (collective defense)
• Part of important tables of decision making
• Part of sub-structures dealing with:
- Defense planning
- Intelligence sharing
- Modernization of systems/equipment
- Education and training (Defense Academies Consortium)
- Air Defense (NATO has taken over Albanian air space
surveillance/protection)
- Maritime defense (Operation “Active Endeavour”)
- Informatization / automation and cyber defense
45
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
b. Security/defense perspective
b) Operational level:
• The package of Capability Targets
- Orients AAF to a more effective military “better fit for
mission”
- Better linkage between ambition – resources (80% of
Albanian defense resources for this package)
• Useful Lessons Learned (from NATO led missions abroad – ISAF)
46
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
b. Security/defense perspective
c) Tactical level:
• Opportunity for Albanian militaries (officers, NCOs, soldiers) to
operate in multinational environments/missions
• More effective training, based on real challenges, mostly for:
- Operating in urban environments
- Asymmetric threats
- In very demanding/diverse missions by perspective of
culture, religion, traditions etc.
47
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13
THANK YOU!
QUESTIONS ?
48
F.Duro IDM – 23.04.13