NATO’S RESPONSE TO NEW SECURITY CHALLENGES
Michael Rühle
Head, Energy Security Section
NATO Emerging Security Challenges Division
ATHENA CONFERENCE
Athens, 17 June 2014
THE HAZARDS OF PREDICTION
“Persons who pretend to predict the future shall
be considered disorderly and will be liable to a fine
of $300 or three months in jail.”
Old Criminal Code of New York
WHY PREDICTION IS NECESSARY
“My interest is in the future because I am going to
spend the rest of my life there.”
Charles F. Kettering
MAJOR TRENDS (1)
• Decline in state sovereignty; power shift
from states to international or non-state
networks
• Proliferation of new technologies (e.g. biotechnology; cyber) to empower state and
non-state actors
MAJOR TRENDS (2)
• New Nuclear Weapons States (real and
“virtual”)
• Failing states as safe havens and training
grounds for terrorist groups, pirates, drugs …
• Cyber attacks (from disruption to
destruction)
MAJOR TRENDS (3)
• Competition for scarce natural resources
(energy, rare earths) can spark territorial
conflicts
• Climate Change can cause natural disasters
and amplify regional conflicts
DILEMMAS OF COLLECTIVE ACTION
• New threats may not affect all countries in
the same way and at the same time different degrees of solidarity
• Some new threats are not predominantly
military in nature
• Responding to new threats requires
civilian and military means
POLITICAL FRAMEWORK (MANDATE)
Strategic Concept (2010)
• Devotes considerable attention to emerging
security challenges
BUREAUCRATIC CHANGES
Emerging Security Challenges Division (2010):
• Cyber defence; Counter-terrorism; WMD-nonproliferation & CBRN defence; Energy security;
Nuclear policy; Science for Peace and Security
Programme
• Strategic Analysis Capability; Economic Security
Assessment
POLICY DEVELOPMENT (1)
• Cyber Defence Policy & Action Plan
• Counterterrorism Political Guidelines
• Strategic Level Policy for WMD Non-Proliferation
• Summit Progress Reports on NATO’s Role in
Energy Security
POLICY DEVELOPMENT (2)
• Better intelligence-sharing
• More analyses on current and future security
risks (to stimulate Allied debate)
• Clearer direction for NATO’s education and
training efforts on emerging challenges
POLICY DEVELOPMENT (3)
• Incorporation of emerging challenges into
NATO exercises
• Closer links with other International
Organisations, NGO’s, scientific community
and private sector
INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL CHALLENGES
• Emerging challenges compete with “traditional”
security issues
• Limited “buy in” by some Allies and NATO’s
leadership
• NATO’s (military) toolbox limits its importance
as an actor in meeting non-traditional
challenges
THE WAY AHEAD
• Stronger reflection of emerging challenges in
NATO’s training & education efforts as well as
exercises
• More regular strategic-level discussions on
emerging security challenges
• Enhanced “connectivity” of NATO with other
players
“YOU CANNOT TEACH AN OLD DOG NEW TRICKS”
APPLYING NOAH’S RULE
“Predicting rain doesn’t count.
Building arks does.”