Spatial-temporal behavior modeling of human development indexes in Water Supply and Sanitation Management in developing countries Celine DONDEYNAZ Supervisors: Prof Chen, Dr C Carmona-Moreno, Dr X Zhang Background United Nations Millennium Goals for Development International initiative to reduce poverty by 2015 Regarding water and sanitation supply the ultimate objective is to provide facilities to 100% of the population. To reach this objective intermediate goals were established GOAL 7 Target 10 Halve, by 2015, the proportion of the population without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/ Background In 2004, in the sub Saharan Africa region are out off the track Access to clean water = 56 % Access to basic sanitation facilities = 37 % In 2004, in the Northern Africa region are in the track Access to clean water = 91 % Access to basic sanitation facilities= 77 % Ref: Joint Monitoring Programme, Mid-term assessment of the Millennium development goals, 2006. Pit latrine in Lalibela , Ethiopia, C.Dondeynaz This reflects the efficiency of the WSS management in a specific developing country which is a combination of a wide range of variables a complex and a cross cutting issue Development strategies Variables ( interaction between them ) Social-organizational Factors - Human - activities pressure on WR Environmental Factors Aid delivery to the Water sector - Governance and political commitment State of the WR - Performance of WSS infrastructures Donor Countries ?? Accessibility to WSS for population Society General welfare, health, social, economic… Progresses towards the MDG’s Developing countries Acronyms WR = Water Resources WSS = Water Supply and Sanitation Monitoring and Assessment MDG = Millennium’s Development Goals General framework for Water Supply and Sanitation management in developing countries Subject and questions 1/1 OBJECTIVE : Find spatial-temporal trends and pattern behaviors between environmental and social/organizational variables that could affect the level of WSS and the welfare level of a country. => Better understand the keys elements involved in an improved WSS management. HOW : Spatial-temporal analysis of the selected variables using multivariate analysis methods and GIS analysis tools. Main QUESTIONS 1. Are the different variables and data coherent enough to establish spatial-temporal behaviors? 2. Can be established measurable protocols and can behavior patterns be extrapolated in time and at other spatial scales? 3. Can data and patterns be integrated into a tool for better understanding these mechanisms ? Subject 2/2 GENERAL STEPS FORESEEN Step 1 Data collection and coherence verification Step 2 Multivariate statistical analysis to find common and cross-linked behaviors among the different variables Step 3 Integration of indicators, factors and variables into a GIS analysis tool for the spatial analysis and visualisation of system dynamics. Temporal analysis will be performed in a later stage. Step 1: DATA COLLECTION Scope of the data collection International data providers : UNEP – FAO – JRC – WB … Factors Considered : Environmental, Social/organisational Scale : National country level in a first stage (Application at basin level in a second stage) Time series : consistency issue requires a strict examination of data coherence and methodologies. SELECTION AND PREPARATION OF THE DATASET Ongoing process LIST of Variables being considered Social/organizational Cluster Environmental Cluster • Water resources availability (Water poverty index, Water stress, water bodies ...) • Land cover indicators (dryland coverage, forest cover..) Accessibility to WSS Cluster • Activities pressure ( water demand, irrigation level, industrial pollution, production indexes..) • Demographic pressure ( growth, repartition Urban-rural) • Governance Country Welfare Cluster • Population access to Sanitation ( total- rural- urban) • Health indicators (water-born disease, mortality, life expectancy..) • Population access to Water Supply( total- rural- urban) • Poverty indicators ( HDI, National poverty index, education level...) STEP 2 : STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Objective: To find out how the collected variables are interlinked, we will use several multivariate statistical methodologies to evaluate relationships between indicators. * XLSTAT * SPSS Multivariate analyses - of the variables - at country level STEP 3 . Integration into a GIS Objective: Geographical Information System (GIS) analysis tools will be also used to analyze the spatial behavior first at national level and maybe at regional level, if relevant. Tools considered - GIS Open source software for spatial analyses - Web based analysis visualisation and database consultation tools Ref : D Chen, C Carmona, A Leone, S Shams, “Assessment of Open Source GIS Software for Water Resources Management in Developing Countries” 2008, 23 p, ISBN 978-9279-11229-4 Conclusion Thanks you for attention Questions ?