Spatial-temporal behavior modeling of
human development indexes in Water
Supply and Sanitation Management
in developing countries
Celine DONDEYNAZ
Supervisors: Prof Chen, Dr C Carmona-Moreno, Dr X Zhang
Background
United Nations Millennium Goals for Development
International initiative to reduce poverty by 2015
Regarding water and sanitation supply the ultimate objective is
to provide facilities to 100% of the population.
To reach this objective intermediate goals were established
GOAL 7
Target 10
Halve, by 2015, the proportion of the population without sustainable access to
safe drinking water and basic sanitation
http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/
Background
In 2004, in the sub Saharan Africa region
are out off the track


Access to clean water = 56 %
Access to basic sanitation
facilities = 37 %
In 2004, in the Northern Africa region are in
the track


Access to clean water = 91 %
Access to basic sanitation
facilities= 77 %
Ref: Joint Monitoring Programme, Mid-term assessment of the
Millennium development goals, 2006.
Pit latrine in Lalibela , Ethiopia, C.Dondeynaz
This reflects the efficiency of the WSS management in a specific developing country
which is a combination of a wide range of variables
a complex and a cross cutting issue
Development strategies
Variables
( interaction between them )
Social-organizational Factors
- Human - activities pressure on WR
Environmental Factors
Aid delivery to
the Water sector
- Governance and political commitment
State of the WR
- Performance of WSS infrastructures
Donor Countries
??
Accessibility to WSS for
population
Society
General welfare, health, social, economic…
Progresses towards the
MDG’s
Developing countries
Acronyms
WR = Water Resources
WSS = Water Supply and Sanitation
Monitoring and Assessment
MDG = Millennium’s Development Goals
General framework for Water Supply and Sanitation management in developing countries
Subject and questions 1/1
OBJECTIVE : Find spatial-temporal trends and pattern behaviors between
environmental and social/organizational variables that could affect the level of
WSS and the welfare level of a country.
=> Better understand the keys elements involved in an improved WSS
management.
HOW : Spatial-temporal analysis of the selected variables using
multivariate analysis methods and GIS analysis tools.
Main QUESTIONS
1. Are the different variables and data coherent enough to establish spatial-temporal behaviors?
2. Can be established measurable protocols and can behavior patterns be extrapolated in time and
at other spatial scales?
3. Can data and patterns be integrated into a tool for better understanding these mechanisms ?
Subject 2/2
GENERAL STEPS FORESEEN
Step 1 Data collection and coherence verification
Step 2 Multivariate statistical analysis to find common and
cross-linked behaviors among the different variables
Step 3 Integration of indicators, factors and variables into a
GIS analysis tool for the spatial analysis and
visualisation of system dynamics.
Temporal analysis will be performed in a later stage.
Step 1: DATA COLLECTION
Scope of the data collection



International data providers : UNEP – FAO – JRC – WB …
Factors Considered : Environmental, Social/organisational
Scale : National country level in a first stage
(Application at basin level in a second stage)

Time series : consistency issue requires a strict examination of data
coherence and methodologies.
SELECTION AND PREPARATION OF THE DATASET
Ongoing process
LIST of Variables being considered
Social/organizational Cluster
Environmental Cluster
• Water resources availability
(Water poverty index, Water
stress, water bodies ...)
• Land cover indicators (dryland
coverage, forest cover..)
Accessibility to WSS Cluster
• Activities pressure ( water demand,
irrigation level, industrial pollution,
production indexes..)
• Demographic pressure ( growth,
repartition Urban-rural)
• Governance
Country Welfare Cluster
• Population access to Sanitation
( total- rural- urban)
• Health indicators (water-born
disease, mortality, life expectancy..)
• Population access to Water
Supply( total- rural- urban)
• Poverty indicators ( HDI, National
poverty index, education level...)
STEP 2 : STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
Objective: To find out how the collected variables are interlinked, we will use
several multivariate statistical methodologies to evaluate relationships
between indicators.
* XLSTAT
* SPSS
 Multivariate analyses
- of the variables
- at country level
STEP 3 . Integration into a GIS

Objective: Geographical Information System (GIS) analysis tools will be also
used to analyze the spatial behavior first at national level and maybe at
regional level, if relevant.
 Tools considered
- GIS Open source software
for spatial analyses
- Web based analysis
visualisation and database
consultation tools
Ref : D Chen, C Carmona, A Leone, S Shams, “Assessment of Open Source GIS Software for Water Resources
Management in Developing Countries” 2008, 23 p, ISBN 978-9279-11229-4
Conclusion
Thanks you for attention
Questions ?