2011 Strategic Review
- The Inventory Analysis
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
1000000
500000
Stock
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
2061
2063
2065
2067
2069
2071
2073
2075
2077
2079
2081
2083
2085
2087
2089
2091
2093
2095
2097
2099
2101
2103
2105
2107
2109
2111
2113
2115
2117
2119
Raw Volume (m ³)
Figure 3 – Cumulative Forecast Raw Arisings of UK LLW and VLLW
4500000
4000000
Total: 4.4 million m3
LLW
VLLW
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
VLLW: 3.3 million m3
LLW: 1.1 million m3
0
Year
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
2113
2115
2117
2119
2105
2107
2109
2111
2099
2101
2103
2091
2093
2095
2097
2083
2085
2087
2089
2075
2077
2079
2081
2067
2069
2071
2073
2059
2061
2063
2065
2053
2055
2057
2045
2047
2049
2051
LLW
2037
2039
2041
2043
2029
2031
2033
2035
120000
2021
2023
2025
2027
2013
2015
2017
2019
Stock
2011
Raw Volume (m ³)
Figure 4 – Annual Raw Arisings of UK LLW and VLLW
140000
VLLW
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Year
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 5 – Raw Waste Arisings of UK LLW and VLLW by Waste Producer (m3)
Sellafield Ltd,
3,313,854 ,
75%
RSRL,
103,184 ,
2%
NNL,
2,445 ,
0%
Ministry of Defence,
52,159 ,
1%
Minor Waste Producers,
7,495 ,
0%
LLWR,
17,693 ,
0%
Magnox South,
195,668 ,
4%
Magnox North,
291,260 ,
7%
Culham JET,
6,570 ,
0%
URENCO,
Westinghouse,
2,811 ,
239,933 ,
0%
5%
British Energy,
97,255 ,
2%
DSRL,
GE Healthcare Ltd,
73,230 ,
24,030 ,
2%
1%
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 6 – Raw Waste Arisings of UK LLW by Waste Producer (m3)
RSRL,
20,246 ,
2%
NNL,
2,445 ,
0%
Ministry of Defence,
30,798 ,
3%
Sellafield Ltd,
384,671.,
35%
Culham JET,
6,570 ,
1%
Minor Waste Producers,
7,495 ,
1%
Magnox South,
190,986 ,
17%
Magnox North,
257,860 ,
24%
LLWR,
17,693 ,
2%
Westinghouse,
1,358 ,
0%
URENCO,
125 ,
0%
British Energy,
97,255 ,
9%
DSRL,
57,879 ,
5%
GE Healthcare Ltd,
16,730 ,
2%
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 7 – Raw Waste Arisings of UK VLLW by Waste Producer (m3)
Westinghouse,
238,575 ,
DSRL,
7%
15,351 ,
URENCO,
0%
2,686 ,
0%
GE Healthcare Ltd,
7,300 ,
0%
Magnox North,
33,400 ,
1%
Magnox South,
4,682 ,
0%
Ministry of Defence,
21,362 ,
1%
RSRL,
82,938 ,
3%
Sellafield Ltd,
2,929,182 ,
88%
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 8 – Material Proportions in Raw LLW arisings between 2010 and 2120 (te)
Metals,
483,969 ,
41%
Soil/Rubble,
529,985,
45%
Soft Organics,
57,772 ,
5%
Graphite,
13,071 ,
1%
Wood,
13,127 ,
1%
Other,
35,678 ,
3%
Plastic/Rubber,
42,044 ,
4%
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 9 – Raw LLW Materials Arisings by Time Period (te)
600000
Post 2100
2060-2100
2030-2060
500000
2010-2030
Stock
Mass (te)
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
Graphite
Metals
Plastic/Rubber
Soft Organics
Soil/Rubble
Wood
Other
Material Category
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 10 – Material Proportions in Raw VLLW between 2010 and 2120 (te)
Soil/Rubble,
2,993,137 ,
85%
Soft Organics,
66,642 ,
2%
Plastic/Rubber,
26,523 ,
1%
Metals,
294,025 ,
8%
Graphite,
1,826 ,
0%
Other,
92,227 ,
3%
Wood,
48,016 ,
1%
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 11 – Raw VLLW Materials Arisings by Time Period (te)
Post 2100
3000000
2060-2100
2030-2060
2010-2030
2500000
Stock
Mass (te)
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
Graphite
Metals
Plastic/Rubber
Soft Organics
Soil/Rubble
Wood
Other
Material Category
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 12 – Activity Distribution of LLW and VLLW Volumes
LLW
3500000
VLLW
Raw Volumes (m3)
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
<4
4 - 40
40-200
200-4000
> 4000
Activity Band (Bq/g)
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 13 – 10 Year UK Regional Distribution of Raw LLW and VLLW (2010 - 2020)
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 14 – 110 Year UK Regional Distribution of Raw LLW and VLLW (2010 - 2120)
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 16 – Actual Container Receipts at the LLW Repository since 2005/2006 FY
700
25 Misc
600
20 Misc
14 THISO's
83 THISO's
Misc
THISO's
No. of Container Receipts
500
37 Misc
16 Misc
400
300
HHISO's
64 THISO's
72 THISO's
612 HHISO's
2 Misc
27 THISO's
573 HHISO's
200
342 HHISO's
378 HHISO's
296 HHISO's
100
0
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
Financial Year
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 17 – Packaged Volume Receipts at the LLW Repository since 2005
12000
230
182
287.5
1,079
Misc
THISO's
10000
Packaged Volume (m3)
HHISO's
425.5
8000
6000
832
184
936
11,934
23
351
11,174
4000
7,371
6,669
5,772
2000
0
0
05/06
0
06/07
0
07/08
0
08/09
0
09/10
Financial Year
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 18 – Activity Distribution of Historic Disposals
1000
900
No. of Consignments
800
700
600
500
743
(29%)
400
300
852
(33%)
766
(30%)
200
100
63
(2%)
137
(5%)
0
<4
4 - 40
40-200
200-4000
> 4000
Activity Band (Bq/g)
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 19 – Overview of Radioactive Waste Inventories since 1994
VLLW
4500000
LLW
Raw Volumes (m3)
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
UKRWI 1994 UKRWI 1998 UKRWI 2001 UKRWI 2004
WIDRAM
2005
WIDRAM
2006
UKRWI 2007
WIDRAM
2008
WIDRAM
2009
UKRWI 2010
Radioactive Waste Inventory Type
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 20 – Potentially Contaminated Land Stock and Future Arisings from 2010-2120 (m3)
Sellafield,
13,096,800 ,
99%
Aldermaston,
109,750 ,
1%
Capenhurst,
6,860 ,
0%
Springfields,
34,000,
0%
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 21 – NORM Waste Arisings Over Time
1000
Oilfield NORM solids currently discharged offshore
900
Oilfield NORM solids currently delivered to shore
800
Approx volume (m3)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
2028
2032
2036
2040
Years
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 32 – SMART Inventory Volume Projections up until C&M Phase (~2030)
140,000
120,000
29,983
Volume (m3)
100,000
80,000
22,745
60,000
33,355
102,718
40,000
53,903
39,539
20,000
0
2010 Radioactive Waste Inventory
SMART Inventory review in situ
SMART Inventory review with size
correction
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 33 – SMART Inventory Impact on the Cumulative Raw Arisings of UK LLW/VLLW (2010-2030)
500000
SMART Inventory LLW Volume
Smart Inventory VLLW Volume
450000
UKRWI 2010 VLLW Volume
UKRWI 2010 LLW Volume
400000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
2029
2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
0
Stock
Raw Volume (m ³)
350000
Year
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 34 – SMART Inventory Impact on the Cumulative Raw Arisings of UK LLW/VLLW (2010-2120)
4500000
Smart Inventory VLLW Volume
SMART Inventory LLW Volume
4000000
UKRWI 2010 VLLW Volume
UKRWI 2010 LLW Volume
3500000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
2117
2119
2113
2115
2109
2111
2105
2107
2103
2099
2101
2095
2097
2091
2093
2087
2089
2083
2085
2079
2081
2075
2077
2073
2069
2071
2065
2067
2061
2063
2057
2059
2053
2055
2049
2051
2045
2047
2041
2043
2039
2035
2037
2031
2033
2027
2029
2023
2025
2019
2021
2015
2017
2011
2013
0
Stock
Raw Volume (m ³)
3000000
Year
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
2119
2115
2117
2113
2109
2111
2107
2103
2105
2101
2097
2099
2095
2093
2089
2091
2087
2083
2085
2081
2077
2079
2075
2071
2073
2069
2067
2063
2065
2061
2057
2059
2055
2051
2053
2049
2047
2043
2045
2041
2037
2039
2035
2031
2033
2029
2025
2027
2023
2021
2017
2019
2015
2011
2013
Stock
Raw Volume (m ³)
Figure 35 – Cumulative Raw Arisings of UKRWI LLW and VLLW inc. 2D148 Reduction
4500000
4000000
2D148 VLLW Cumulative Volume
3500000
UKRWI 2010 VLLW Volume
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
Year
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
4500000
ACCELS VLLW Volume
4000000
ACCELS LLW Volume
3500000
UKRWI 2010 VLLW Volume
3000000
UKRWI 2010 LLW Volume
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
Stock
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
2061
2063
2065
2067
2069
2071
2073
2075
2077
2079
2081
2083
2085
2087
2089
2091
2093
2095
2097
2099
2101
2103
2105
2107
2109
2111
2113
2115
2117
2119
Raw Volume (m ³)
Figure 36 – Cumulative Raw Arisings of ACCELS and UKRWI LLW and VLLW
Year
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 37 – Raw waste arisings of ACCELS LLW and VLLW by Waste Producer (m3)
Sellafield Ltd,
1,308,914 ,
56%
RSRL,
103,184 ,
4%
NNL,
2,445 ,
Ministry of Defence, 0%
URENCO,
2,811 ,
0% Culham JET,
6,570 ,
0%
52,159 ,
2%
Minor Waste Producers,
7,495 ,
0%
Magnox South,
185,664 ,
8%
Magnox North,
239,308 ,
11%
LLWR,
17,693 ,
1%
DSRL,
73,230 ,
3%
GE Healthcare Ltd,
24,030 ,
1%
Westinghouse,
239,933 ,
10%
British Energy,
97,255 ,
4%
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 38 – Raw waste arisings of ACCELS LLW by Waste Producer (m3)
Ministry of Defence,
30,798 ,
3%
NNL,
2,445 ,
0%
RSRL,
20,246 ,
2%
Sellafield Ltd,
384,671 ,
36%
Minor Waste Producers,
7,495 ,
1%
Culham JET,
6,570 ,
1%
URENCO,
125 ,
0%
Magnox South,
180,982 ,
17%
Magnox North,
218,864 ,
21%
DSRL,
57,879 ,
6%
LLWR,
17,693 ,
2%
GE Healthcare Ltd,
16,730 ,
2%
Westinghouse,
1,358 ,
0%
British Energy,
97,255 ,
9%
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Figure 39 – Raw waste arisings of ACCELS VLLW by Waste Producer (m3)
URENCO,
2,686 ,
0%
Westinghouse,
238,575 , DSRL,
18% 15,351 ,
1%
GE Healthcare Ltd,
7,300 ,
Magnox North,
1%
20,444 ,
2%
Magnox South,
4,682 ,
0%
Ministry of Defence,
21,362 ,
RSRL,
2%
82,938 ,
6%
Sellafield Ltd,
924,243 ,
70%
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16
Raw Volumes (m3)
Figure 40 – Overview of Radioactive Waste Inventories including ACCELS Reductions
4500000
VLLW
4000000
LLW
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
UKRWI
1994
UKRWI
1998
UKRWI
2001
UKRWI
2004
WIDRAM
2005
WIDRAM
2006
UKRWI
2007
WIDRAM
2008
WIDRAM
2009
UKRWI
2010
ACCELS
2011
Radioactive Waste Inventory Type
2011 Strategic Review – NLWS/LLWR/16