Cost Benefit Analysis of proposed reforms to water access for Petroleum & Gas Projects Qwater Conference 7-8 November 2014 Project Overview Cost Benefit Analysis for the Qld Dept of Natural Resources and Mines - to support a Consultation Regulation Impact Statement Project 2 covered water access for Mines and Petroleum projects – proposed aligning the requirements Focus on Non-Associated Water for Petroleum and Gas projects Particularly important for Shale gas 2 Key Definitions Associated Water - water that is not necessarily and unavoidably taken in the process of extracting the resource (eg. mine dewater) Non Associated Water - water that is not necessarily and unavoidably taken. This includes water for: − hydraulic fracturing; − accommodation camps; and − in drilling operations. Petroleum and gas activities – all activities undertaken on survey, exploration or production tenures. These include: − conventional oil and gas projects; − CSG projects; and − shale gas projects. 3 Summary of Gas Reserves Shale gas Tight gas Coal seam gas Conventional 2000 – 5000 metres 2000 – 5000 metres 300 – 1000 metres 1000 – 5000 metres Rock type Shale Sandstone and limestone Coal seams Sandstone and limestone Production well type Vertical or Horizontal Vertical or Horizontal Vertical Vertical and Horizontal Hydraulic fracturing Always Always Occasionally Rarely Water released through Low gas extraction High Low Water required for hydraulic fracturing High Low Not Applicable Estimated Qld reserves Cooper Basin 92.9 trillion cubic feet ~30 trillion cubic feet (92% of Australia’s ~ 0.57 trillion cubic 4 feet Depth below surface Options Considered Base case: No legislative change, work cooperatively with industry. No legislative but government and industry work together to encourage minimisation of impacts and promote the coexistence Option 1: Require an entitlement under the Water Act. Remove the statutory right to non-associated water, and require an entitlement under the Water Act (eg. water allocation, licence or permit). Option 2: Increased obligations. Retain current statutory rights and introduce further statutory obligations. Require tenure holders to assess the options for sourcing non-associated water, and to minimise impacts of taking water 5 Option 1 – Aligns Requirements Note that Option 1 (and the proposed change for mineral resources would align the requirements for Mines and Petroleum & Gas Current statutory provisions Water take Associated Water Non-associated water Mineral resources* Petroleum and gas^ Dewatering licence in groundwater management areas Obligations in Chapter 3 Licence in groundwater management areas Obligations in Chapter 3 Proposed statutory provisions Water take Associated Water Non-associated water Mineral resources* Petroleum and gas^ Obligations in Chapter 3 Obligations in Chapter 3 Licence in groundwater management areas Entitlement in groundwater management areas OR additional underground water obligations 6 Cost Benefit Analysis Cost Benefit Analysis undertaken over 10 years. Requires inputs (for both CSG and Shale Gas): − Project numbers; − Project size; and − Requirements of an “average project” (monitoring bores, baseline assessments, make good arrangements…). The impacts of the proposed change can be categorised as: − the costs and benefits for private industry; − impacts on government costs; and − environmental and social costs and benefits. 7 Costs and benefits for private industry Cost Type Project approvals & monitoring bore network Ongoing admin costs Other Cost Baseline Comment Chapter 3 covers both Associated and Baseline Ave cost per project Shale gas $4,250,000 $100,000 Base costs plus costs to obtain a water licence Base costs plus costs to obtain a water licence $250,000 $13,333 No change from base case No change from base case Cost to industry includes net cost of water purchases (after resale) Cost to industry includes net cost of water purchases (after resale) Non-associated water Make Good Arrangements, implementing spring management strategies, etc Option 2 CSG Non-associated water Chapter 3 covers both Associated and Option 1 Not quantified Not quantified Avoid need for Make Good Arrangements Avoid need for Make 8 Good Arrangements Other industry impacts Improved social licence to operate (Option 1 and 2) − proposed changes may improve community comfort regarding water take for petroleum and gas activities Increased uncertainty (Option 1 only) − As Option 1 will require approval of a licence, the proposed change will represent a higher level of uncertainty for industry in the exploration and feasibility stages of a project. Improved competition between energy producers through consistent framework of underground water rights (Option 1 only) 9 Impacts on government costs Setup costs − 1 of a number of reforms – so not easy to isolate costs − Estimated by government at: − $75,000 for Option 1 and − $500,000 for Option 2 Ongoing costs − Estimated by government at: − 1 FTE per annum ($100,000) for Option 1 and − 2 FTEs per annum ($200,000) for Option 2 10 Environmental and social costs and benefits Potential costs of the proposed changes − Could shift investment to other regions (it is unclear whether movement is realistic) Potential benefits of the proposed changes − minimising the unintended impacts of gas development – It was noted that fraccing has been used in the Cooper Basin for conventional oil and gas Marsden Jacob estimated that at full production between 8,000 to 24,300 wells would be necessary for the most productive part of the Cooper Basin (requiring around 30 and 40 billion litres annually) 11 Compiled CBA Cost / Benefit Business – Regulatory Burden Option 1 (PV over 10 yrs) Option 2 (PV over 10 yrs) Slight increase in compliance costs in substantive compliance costs for some sites (CSG and shale projects) -$2,107,000 May need to purchase water Business – Other costs uncertainty and social licence benefits competition between energy producers State Govt (Regulator) Unquantified May need to obtain water from alternative source -$2,107,000 Unquantified social licence costs (DNRM) -$702,000 costs (EHP) One-off legislative and administrative costs -$1,405,000 -$75,000 One-off legislative and administrative cost Potential impact on regional investment impacts (other users & environment) Unquantified Potential impact on Environmnt regional investment and impacts (other users & Social environment) Unquantified Total -$2,884,000 -$500,000 12 -$4,012,000 Conclusions Over a 10 year period the quantified costs of the proposed reform will result in a net cost of around: − $3 million for Option 1 and − $4 million for Option 2. Key unquantified costs include: − the potential need for industry to purchase water; − increased uncertainty with the licence approval process (Option 1 only) Key unquantified benefits include: − social licence and better relationships with landholders; − competition between energy producers (Option 1 only); − impacts on groundwater; and − risks to regionally significant aquifers 13 Further Information Report is available online www.dnrm.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/17 8876/mja-report-project2.pdf alex.marsden@marsdenjacob.com.au Marsden Jacob’s Offices: − Perth − Melbourne & − Sydney 14 15