欧洲债务危机：
原因，解决方法及对中国的影响
Eurozone Crisis：
Origin, Solutions and Impact on China
Michele Geraci （杰拉奇）
Head of China Program - Global Policy Institute
Senior Research Fellow and Adjunct Professor of Finance -Zhejiang University
Visiting Assistant Professor of Finance – University of Nottingham, Ningbo
1
Global Policy Institute
Personal Introduction
• Head of China – Global Policy Institute, London
• Senior Research Fellow and Adjunct Professor of Finance –
Zhejiang University
• Visiting Assistant Professor of Finance – Nottingham University
• Electronic Engineering – Graduate degree, University of Palermo
(University College London)
• Master in Business Administration (MBA) - Massachusetts Institute
of Technology, Sloan School of Management
2
Global Policy Institute
Personal Introduction
• Merrill Lynch Investment Banking – Associate
• Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette – Vice President, Head of Latin
America and Co-Head of Europe Telecom Research
• Bank of America – Director, Co-Head of Europe Telecoms
• Pali Capital – Managing Director, Head of Europe Telecoms
• Schroders Asset Management – Head of European Media, Telecom
3
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Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
Introduction to the EU and the Eurozone
Reasons for the current crisis
Impact on China
Recent Events
Q&A
4
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Other Data
5
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Other Data
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Other Data
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Europe：brief history
•
•
•
•
•
•
1945 - End of WWII
1952 – Treaty of Paris signed (France, Italy, Holland, Belgium and
Germany): European Community formally established
1958 – Treaty of Rome signed
1973 – England joins
1992：Treaty of Maastricht – path to Eurozone
2012：27 countries are part of the EU。
12
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Message 1： Not Long after the end of WWI, Europe
had been re-united
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13
EU System
•
•
•
•
•
Free flow of goods and services
Tax-free trade area
Free flow of people
No custom, no need for ID card (ex Schengen)
All citizens from any of the 27 countries enjoys
same rights and befenits
Message2: EU basically looks as if it was a single
country
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14
Eurzozone:’99
First Stage
15
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Eurozone ‘01：
Greece joins
16
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Eurozone ‘12：
17 countries
17
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Convergence Criteria：趋同标准
• If a country wants to join the Eurozone, it
must fulfill certain conditions
• 如果一个国家想加入欧元区，他就必须满
足几个条件。
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Convergence Criteria：趋同标准
• Inflation Rate （通货膨胀）: <1.5% higher than av. of
best three other countries
• Government Deficit/GDP (政府赤字） <3%
• Government Debt/GDP （政府债务与GDP比率）<60%
• Interest Rates (利息率）< 2% more than three lowest
countries
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Inflation
奥地利
比利时
2003
2004
2005
Inflation
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
芬兰
法国
德国
希腊
爱尔兰
意大利
卢森堡
马耳他
荷兰
葡萄牙
斯洛伐克
斯洛文尼亚
西班牙
1.3%
1.5%
4.0%
1.4%
1.3%
2.2%
1.0%
3.4%
4.0%
2.8%
2.5%
1.9%
2.2%
3.3%
8.4%
5.7%
3.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.9%
3.0%
0.1%
2.3%
1.8%
3.0%
2.3%
2.2%
3.2%
2.7%
1.4%
2.5%
7.5%
3.7%
3.1%
2.1%
2.5%
2.0%
4.1%
0.8%
1.9%
1.9%
3.5%
2.1%
2.2%
3.8%
2.5%
1.5%
2.1%
2.8%
2.5%
3.4%
1.7%
2.3%
2.3%
4.5%
1.3%
1.9%
1.8%
3.3%
2.7%
2.2%
3.0%
2.6%
1.7%
3.0%
4.3%
2.5%
3.6%
2.2%
1.8%
2.2%
6.7%
1.6%
1.6%
2.3%
3.0%
2.8%
2.1%
2.7%
0.7%
1.6%
2.4%
1.9%
3.8%
2.8%
3.2%
4.5%
4.4%
10.6%
3.9%
3.2%
2.8%
4.2%
3.1%
3.5%
4.1%
4.7%
2.2%
2.7%
3.9%
5.5%
4.1%
0.4%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
1.6%
0.1%
0.2%
1.4%
-1.7%
0.7%
0.0%
1.8%
1.0%
-0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
-0.2%
1.7%
2.3%
2.6%
2.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.1%
4.7%
-1.6%
1.7%
2.8%
2.0%
0.9%
1.4%
0.7%
2.1%
2.0%
3.6%
3.5%
3.5%
5.1%
3.3%
2.3%
2.5%
3.1%
Smallest
Second Smallest
Third Smalles
1.0%
1.3%
1.3%
0.1%
1.4%
1.8%
0.8%
1.5%
1.9%
1.3%
1.7%
1.7%
0.7%
1.6%
1.6%
2.2%
2.7%
2.8%
-1.7%
-0.9%
-0.2%
-1.6%
0.7%
0.9%
2.1%
2.3%
2.4%
Average
1.2%
1.1%
1.4%
1.5%
1.3%
2.5%
-0.9%
0.0%
2.3%
条件 (Average +1.5%)
2.7%
2.6%
2.9%
3.0% 20
2.8%
4.0%
0.6%
塞浦路斯
爱沙尼亚
2.9%
3.7%
2.4%
2.5%
3.6%
4.1%
2.1%
3.1%
Austria
Belgium
Cyprus
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Portugal
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
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1.5%
3.8%
Inflation
Inflation
奥地利
比利时
塞浦路斯
爱沙尼亚
芬兰
法国
德国
希腊
爱尔兰
意大利
卢森堡
马耳他
荷兰
葡萄牙
斯洛伐克
斯洛文尼亚
西班牙
条件
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
1.3%
1.5%
4.0%
1.4%
1.3%
2.2%
1.0%
3.4%
2.0%
1.9%
1.9%
3.0%
0.1%
2.3%
1.8%
3.0%
2.1%
2.5%
2.0%
4.1%
0.8%
1.9%
1.9%
3.5%
1.7%
2.3%
2.3%
4.5%
1.3%
1.9%
1.8%
3.3%
2.2%
1.8%
2.2%
6.7%
1.6%
1.6%
2.3%
3.0%
3.2%
4.5%
4.4%
10.6%
3.9%
3.2%
2.8%
4.2%
0.4%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
1.6%
0.1%
0.2%
1.4%
1.7%
2.3%
2.6%
2.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.1%
4.7%
4.0%
2.8%
2.5%
1.9%
2.2%
3.3%
8.4%
5.7%
3.1%
2.3%
2.2%
3.2%
2.7%
1.4%
2.5%
7.5%
3.7%
3.1%
2.1%
2.2%
3.8%
2.5%
1.5%
2.1%
2.8%
2.5%
3.4%
2.7%
2.2%
3.0%
2.6%
1.7%
3.0%
4.3%
2.5%
3.6%
2.8%
2.1%
2.7%
0.7%
1.6%
2.4%
1.9%
3.8%
2.8%
3.1%
3.5%
4.1%
4.7%
2.2%
2.7%
3.9%
5.5%
4.1%
-1.7%
0.7%
0.0%
1.8%
1.0%
-0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
-0.2%
-1.6%
1.7%
2.8%
2.0%
0.9%
1.4%
0.7%
2.1%
2.0%
2.7%
2.6%
2.9%
3.0%
2.8%
4.0%
0.6%
1.5%
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3.6% Austria
3.5% Belgium
3.5% Cyprus
5.1% Estonia
3.3% Finland
2.3% France
2.5% Germany
3.1% Greece
Ireland
2.9% Italy
3.7% Luxembourg
2.4% Malta
2.5% Netherlands
3.6% Portugal
4.1% Slovakia
2.1% Slovenia
3.1% Spain
3.8%
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Government Deficit 财政赤字
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Government Deficit
0.0%
0.4%
-2.2%
-0.1%
5.1%
-1.5%
-3.1%
-4.5%
0.9%
-3.1%
6.1%
-6.4%
-0.2%
-4.3%
-6.5%
-4.0%
-0.5%
-1.9%
-3%
-0.7%
-0.1%
-4.4%
0.3%
4.1%
-3.1%
-3.8%
-4.8%
-0.4%
-3.1%
2.1%
-5.8%
-2.1%
-2.9%
-8.2%
-2.4%
-0.2%
-2.6%
-3%
-1.5%
-0.1%
-6.6%
1.7%
2.6%
-4.1%
-4.2%
-5.6%
0.4%
-3.6%
0.5%
-9.2%
-3.1%
-3.0%
-2.8%
-2.7%
-0.3%
-3.1%
-3%
-4.4%
-0.3%
-4.1%
1.6%
2.5%
-3.6%
-3.8%
-7.5%
1.4%
-3.5%
-1.1%
-4.7%
-1.7%
-3.4%
-2.4%
-2.3%
-0.1%
-2.9%
-3%
-1.7%
-2.7%
-2.4%
1.6%
2.8%
-2.9%
-3.3%
-5.2%
1.7%
-4.4%
0.0%
-2.9%
-0.3%
-5.9%
-2.8%
-1.5%
1.3%
-2.5%
-3%
23
-1.5%
0.1%
-1.2%
2.5%
4.1%
-2.3%
-1.6%
-5.7%
2.9%
-3.4%
1.4%
-2.8%
0.5%
-4.1%
-3.2%
-1.4%
2.4%
-1.3%
-3%
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
奥地利
比利时
塞浦路斯
爱沙尼亚
芬兰
法国
德国
希腊
爱尔兰
意大利
卢森堡
马耳他
荷兰
葡萄牙
斯洛伐克
斯洛文尼亚
西班牙
欧元区
条约的条件
-0.9%
-0.3%
3.5%
2.4%
5.3%
-2.7%
0.2%
-6.5%
0.1%
-1.6%
3.7%
-2.4%
0.2%
-3.1%
-1.8%
0.0%
1.9%
-0.7%
-3%
-0.9%
-1.3%
0.9%
-2.9%
4.3%
-3.3%
-0.1%
-9.8%
-7.3%
-2.7%
3.0%
-4.6%
0.5%
-3.6%
-2.1%
-1.9%
-4.5%
-2.1%
-3%
-4.1%
-5.8%
-6.1%
-2.0%
-2.5%
-7.5%
-3.2%
-15.8%
-14.2%
-5.4%
-0.9%
-3.7%
-5.6%
-10.1%
-8.0%
-6.1%
-11.2%
-6.4%
-3%
2010
-4.4%
-4.1%
-5.3%
0.2%
-2.5%
-7.1%
-4.3%
-10.6%
-31.3%
-4.6%
-1.1%
-3.6%
-5.1%
-9.8%
-7.7%
-5.8%
-9.3%
-6.2%
-3%
Austria
Belgium
Cyprus
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Portugal
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Euro17
Criteria
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Government Deficit
2001
奥地利
比利时
塞浦路斯
爱沙尼亚
芬兰
法国
德国
希腊
爱尔兰
意大利
卢森堡
马耳他
荷兰
葡萄牙
斯洛伐克
斯洛文尼亚
西班牙
欧元区
条约的条件
2002
0.0%
0.4%
-2.2%
-0.1%
5.1%
-1.5%
-3.1%
-4.5%
0.9%
-3.1%
6.1%
-6.4%
-0.2%
-4.3%
-6.5%
-4.0%
-0.5%
-1.9%
-3%
2003
-0.7%
-0.1%
-4.4%
0.3%
4.1%
-3.1%
-3.8%
-4.8%
-0.4%
-3.1%
2.1%
-5.8%
-2.1%
-2.9%
-8.2%
-2.4%
-0.2%
-2.6%
-3%
2004
-1.5%
-0.1%
-6.6%
1.7%
2.6%
-4.1%
-4.2%
-5.6%
0.4%
-3.6%
0.5%
-9.2%
-3.1%
-3.0%
-2.8%
-2.7%
-0.3%
-3.1%
-3%
2005
-4.4%
-0.3%
-4.1%
1.6%
2.5%
-3.6%
-3.8%
-7.5%
1.4%
-3.5%
-1.1%
-4.7%
-1.7%
-3.4%
-2.4%
-2.3%
-0.1%
-2.9%
-3%
2006
-1.7%
-2.7%
-2.4%
1.6%
2.8%
-2.9%
-3.3%
-5.2%
1.7%
-4.4%
0.0%
-2.9%
-0.3%
-5.9%
-2.8%
-1.5%
1.3%
-2.5%
-3%
2007
-1.5%
0.1%
-1.2%
2.5%
4.1%
-2.3%
-1.6%
-5.7%
2.9%
-3.4%
1.4%
-2.8%
0.5%
-4.1%
-3.2%
-1.4%
2.4%
-1.3%
-3%
2008
-0.9%
-0.3%
3.5%
2.4%
5.3%
-2.7%
0.2%
-6.5%
0.1%
-1.6%
3.7%
-2.4%
0.2%
-3.1%
-1.8%
0.0%
1.9%
-0.7%
-3%
2009
-0.9%
-1.3%
0.9%
-2.9%
4.3%
-3.3%
-0.1%
-9.8%
-7.3%
-2.7%
3.0%
-4.6%
0.5%
-3.6%
-2.1%
-1.9%
-4.5%
-2.1%
-3%
-4.1%
-5.8%
-6.1%
-2.0%
-2.5%
-7.5%
-3.2%
-15.8%
-14.2%
-5.4%
-0.9%
-3.7%
-5.6%
-10.1%
-8.0%
-6.1%
-11.2%
-6.4%
-3%
2010
-4.4%
-4.1%
-5.3%
0.2%
-2.5%
-7.1%
-4.3%
-10.6%
-31.3%
-4.6%
-1.1%
-3.6%
-5.1%
-9.8%
-7.7%
-5.8%
-9.3%
-6.2%
-3%
Austria
Belgium
Cyprus
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Portugal
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Euro17
Criteria
GRE, ITA, POR
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almost always24exceed criteria
Debt/GDP
Spain:
RE
bubble
four countries “always”exceededGlobal
criteria
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25
Debt/GDP
Attention：France and Germany are not too ‘in
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26
good shape, either
Debt/GDP
Eurozone and EU members performance: UK???
27
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Interest Rates
28
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Convergence Criteria：met or not？
• Inflation：in 2010， 12 countries did not meet criteria！
• Gov’t Deficit：in ’09 and ‘10，15 countries did not meet
criteria!
• Debt/GDP: Greece and Italy ratio always above: EU
average always above criteria!
Message 3: Eurozone：basically, never met,
almost never,
at least Global Policy Institute
29
Why Greece so serious？
Message 4：“reciprocal help”:
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30
this concept is now in doubt
Crisis: Soft reasons
• 27 countries
• 27 electoral democracies，54 different
points of view！
• Culture, history, technology, language，
custom, food，economic structure，social
structure, etc..not at all the same！
Message 5：Unification process not easy
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Crisis“hard”reasons
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Relaxed lending practices
Excessive investment
Risk assessment not proper
Global Imbalances
Improper fiscal policies
Socialise losses
Contagion Problems
Single Currency!!!
32
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Trade Imbalance, leading to protectionism
Reaganomics
Benefits to Chinese
exports
Financing US
consumption
33
Accumulation of
FX Reserves
Purchase of US
bonds
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Crisis：3 examples
• Ireland
• Greece
• Italy
Excessive Inv，Real Estate
Civil Servants and salaries
loss of competiveness，low
efficiency ratios
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Reasons for the crisis
We must acknowledge that Europe faces
two distinct problems: Sovereign Debt crisis
and Eurozone Crisis
• The first one is due to individual countries
bad fiscal policies
• The second is due to structural problems。
Message 6：Debt crisis and
Eurozone crisis
areInstitute
two
Global Policy
35
Conditions for monetary area
1.
2.
3.
4.
Relax the mandate of the ECB
财政整合 – Fiscal Integration
Fully implement people’s mobility (Dakota)
。。。？？？
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Possible Solutions
1. Generally, Central banks look after inflation and
economic growth: a balanced mandate, but..
2. ECB’s only responsibility is price stability (CPI)：
– Unrealistic goal （17 countries）
– ECB is not concerned with stimulating growth
3. AND, even worse, When you have debt you should
push inflation up, but that is not what the ECB does
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Possible Solutions
2. Eurozone has no fiscal integration
– currently, each country look after its own
budget
– What about China and the US？
– A German tax envoy goes to Greece to collect
taxes and decides to spend the money in
Berlin
– Can people accept this？
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Possible Solutions
3. Realize full people mobility
–
–
–
–
Easy in theory, not in practice
Language, culture, society, political systems
What about China and the US？
Dakota can be emptied, but Belgium?
39
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Possible Solutions
4. Break up of the EURO！
– Or, reduce the scope
– Re-introduce individual currencies
– Every country can choose its own monetary policy
（print money）
– Can depreciate currency，stimulate exports (Short
term is fine)
– Painful in the short term ， but successful in the long
term
PIIGS can leave, or Germany can leave EUROzone
40
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Possible Solutions
Message 7：Sacrifice the Euro
to Save the European Union
41
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欧元区已经解体了
42
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Impact on China
• The Chinese economy, as a whole, is becoming
less dependent on exports…apparently
• This year, there maybe a trade deficit
Therefore…
A slowing demand from Europe for Chinese goods
is not going to have a big impact on Chinese
economy – True?
43
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Key points on the RMB
• Countries have sovereign right to set it
exchange rate as they wish (US, Italy, UK)
• No one knows the real value of the RMB
• The impact of a possible revaluation of
RMB on US exports in far from clear,
• But, impact on China can be negative
44
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Plaza Accord and US$ devaluation
45
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Impact on China
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Impact on China
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Impact on China
• China should come to the rescue of
Europe
• Not for charity, but to protect it’s own
interest
• Chinese policy makers may underestimate
this problem
Message 8：Chinese policy makers must pay closer
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attention
48
Summary
1
Not Long after the end of WWI, Europe had been re-united
2
EU basically looks as if it was a single country
3
Eurozone：basically, never met, almost never, at least
4
“reciprocal help”:this concept is now in doubt
5
Unification process not easy
6
Debt crisis and Eurozone crisis are two different things
7
Sacrifice the Euro to Save the European Union
8
Chinese policy makers must pay closer attention
最近的时间
• 2011 年10月份：欧盟高峰会：新的财政条
约
• 2012年三月份：希腊新的纾困
• 2012年四月份：法国大选
50
Global Policy Institute