The way aid works
The way the world works
The way aid could work
“…the smallpox eradication effort evolved over
time in response to the practical realities in the
field, the development of new approaches
through research, the active involvement of local
leadership and peoples, and imaginative quality
control measures and supervision. It developed
different approaches and strategies
adapted to local conditions...”
DON HENDERSON, DIRECTOR OF SMALLPOX CAMPAIGN
Cognitive and operational biases in aid
Systems
Behaviours
Relations
‘…where machines work well.
Such approaches
would be ideal where there is a
straightforward task to perform,
a stable context and
operating environment,
identical, duplicable products,
and compliant, predictable and
reliable parts –
which includes
the human
‘components’...”
Dynamics
“…All malaria programmes were obliged to adhere
rigidly to a highly detailed, standardised manual of
operations. It mandated identical job descriptions
in every country and prescribed specific charts
to be displayed on each office wall at each
administrative level. The programme was
conceived and executed as a military operation
to be conducted in an identical manner whatever
the battlefield... the premise of the programme was
that the needed knowledge and technology was
available and that success depended solely on
meticulous attention to implementation detail.
Research was considered unnecessary and was
effectively suspended from the launch of the
programme…”
“...The Newtonian model is staggering
about the global stage like a mortally
wounded Shakespearean actor...”
The way aid works
The way the world works
The way aid could work
The problems we face in science and policy
• Organised simplicity
• Disorganised complexity
• Organised complexity
The world is rife with ‘complex adaptive systems’
Complex
Adaptive
System
Many interacting agents and
organizations of agents
Designs and strategies
evolve over time
Macro patterns emerge
from micro behavior
Complexity science helps development scientists better
understand systems, networks, behaviours and dynamics
Emergent systems
Adaptive behaviours
Diverse networks
Dynamic change
(Compare to the institutionalised
operating assumptions of aid)
Systems
Relations
Behaviours
Dynamics
The way aid works
The way the world works
The way aid could work
SYSTEMS
•Systems thinking approach to malaria reduction (IWMI)
•Holistic management of anti-desertification programmes in Zimbabwe (Operation Hope)
•System dynamics in conflict (UWM)
•Social ecological systems (Indiana)
BEHAVIOURS
•Agent-based modelling in agriculture (French Development Agency)
•Agent-based models of national political economy (World Bank)
•Evolutionary approaches to dealing with malnutrition (Save the Children)
•Problem-driven iterative adaptation (Harvard, Bank)
NETWORKS
•Complexity, networks and growth (Harvard Center for International Development)
•Social network analysis of disaster responses (Red Cross)
•Global economic fragility (IMF)
•Irrigation and water temple networks in Bali (Santa Fe)
DYNAMICS
Non-linear epidemiology (Sahel)
•Emergent education (NIIT, IFC)
•Mhealth approaches in Africa
•Scaling up health interventions (Future Health Systems Consortium)
Network analysis:
from atomised actors with formal
relations to informal, social cliques and
groups
Case study:
Atlas of Economic Complexity
• A network-based approach to economic development
• Networks of productive knowledge condition and shape
the development of nations
• The structure of network explains growth and stagnation
• Best predictor of national growth available
The product space
Ghana vs Malaysia
Ghana vs Malaysia
What complexity research brings
Systems
Behaviours
Relations
Systems are
open, dynamic,
interconnected
and
interdependent.
Macro patterns
emerge from
micro behaviors
and interactions
Humans are adaptive
tinkerers;
subject to
errors and biases;
self-organize
and co-evolve with
system and each
other
Relationships,
networks,
flows, ties,
values, beliefs
are vital. Are
path
dependent and
historical
Dynamics
Organized
simplicity
Organised
complexity
Disorganised
complexity
What
complexity
research
brings
Change is
non-linear,
unpredictable,
with phase
transitions,
characterized by
power laws and
discontinuities
What complex systems research brings to development sciences
Systems
Behaviours
Relations
Actors can be
treated as
independent and
and action can be
atomized
specified from top-down
Sciences of Systems and problems Individuals use rational
simplicity are closed, static, linear deduction; behaviour
systems; reductionist
What
sciences of
complexity
bring
Systems are open,
dynamic,
interconnected
and
interdependent.
Macro patterns
emerge from
micro behaviors
and interactions
Humans are adaptive
tinkerers;
subject to
errors and biases;
self-organize
and co-evolve with
system and each
other
Relationships,
flows, ties,
values, beliefs
are vital. Are
path
dependent and
historical
Dynamics
Change is direct
result of actions;
proportional, additive
and predictable
Change is
non-linear,
unpredictable,
with phase
transitions,
characterized by
power laws and
discontinuities
Closing thoughts
‘We cannot solve problems by
using the same kind of thinking
we used when we created them.’
ALBERT EINSTEIN
Thank you!