Chapter 7: Growth and Trade McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2009 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 7-2 7-3 7-4 7-5 1.Introduction Objective To understand the relationship between economic growth and international trade, in particular, the effects of growth on trade and welfare. 7-6 Introduction Contents Sources of economic growth Balanced versus Biased growth Rybczynski Theorem and Dutch Disease Immiserizing growth Effects of trade on growth 7-7 2.Sources of growth Definition of economic growth Increase in productive capabilities Growth in Gross Domestic Products (GDP) (constant price) Expansion of PPC 7-8 Expansion of PPC 7-9 Sources of growth Increases in factor resources labor resources Capital Land Improvement in production technologies 7-10 Sources of growth and PPC Increase in labor resources 7-11 Sources of growth and PPC Technical progress in wheat production 7-12 3.Balanced vs Biased Growth 均衡增长与偏向性增长 Balanced growth Concept 7-13 7-14 Sources of Balanced Growth Increases in all factors of production at the same rate Technical progress of the same magnitude in both industries 7-15 Effects of Balanced Growth (under constant relative price) Production Consumption Trade Welfare 7-16 40% growth Terms of trade= 1 yard for 1 bushel 7-17 Biased Growth 偏向性增长 The concept Economic growth biased toward production of one product 7-18 7-19 Sources of Biased Growth Increases of factors of production at different rates Technical progress of different magnitudes in two industries 7-20 Effects of Biased Growth (under constant relative price) Production Consumption Trade Welfare 7-21 Relative price: 1 yard for 1 bushel 7-22 4 Growth in Only One Factor 要素增长 单一 In the 2x2x2 model, assuming relative price is constant, what changes will happen to production with growth in only one factor ? 7-23 Growth in labor resources in the USA 7-24 Rybczynski Theorem 罗勃津斯基定理 Under constant prices, growth in a country’s endowment of one factor will result in both an increase in the output of the product that uses the growing factor intensively and a decrease in the output of the other product. 7-25 Tadeus Rybczynski 罗勃津斯基 (1923-1998) Polish-born English economist Known for Rybczynski theorem (1955) Studied at the London School of Economics. Investment banker with Lazard (瑞德) 7-26 The Dutch Disease “荷兰病” Discoveries of vast natural gas deposits in the North Sea in the 1960s resulted in deindustrialization of the Dutch manufacturing industries. 7-27 5 Effects on the Country’s Terms of Trade Small country Large country 7-28 Effects of Growth on a Large Country Reduced willingness to trade and improvement in terms of trade 7-29 S2 C2 7-30 Effects of Growth on a Large Country Increased willingness to trade and deterioration in terms of trade 7-31 S2 C2 7-32 Immiserizing Growth 贫困化增长 Jagdish Bhagwati 巴格沃蒂(1958) Columbia University 7-33 S2 C2 7-34 Conditions for immiserizing growth to occur Growth is strongly biased toward expanding export supply and affects world price. Foreign demand is price inelastic. The country is heavily engaged in trade so that terms of trade loss can offset production gains. 7-35 6 Openness to Trade Affects Growh Access to better technology (Capital goods) Competitive pressure and incentive to innovate 7-36 Summary Sources of growth Balanced vs biased growth Rybczynski Theorem Immiserizing growth Trade and growth 7-37