Stratospheric Network for the
Assessment of Predictability
(SNAP)
Andrew Charlton-Perez & Om Tripathi and SNAP
steering group.
13 April 2015
© University of Reading 2006
www.met.reading.ac.uk/research/stratclim/
Project Aims
The aims of SNAP are to answer the following outstanding
questions about stratospheric predictability:
•Are stratosphere-troposphere coupling effects important
throughout the winter season or only when major
stratospheric dynamical events occur?
•How far in advance can major stratospheric dynamical
events be predicted and usefully add skill to tropospheric
forecasts?
•Which stratospheric processes, both resolved and
unresolved need to be captured by models to gain optimal
stratospheric predictability?
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Funding/Management
• Funded by the UK NERC and SPARC (an emerging activity)
• Run by the project manager (Om) and the PI (Andrew)
• Managed by the Steering Committee
Mark Baldwin (Univ. of Exeter), Martin Charron (Environment Canada), Steve
Eckerman (Naval Research Laboratory), Edwin Gerber (New York
University), Yuhji Kuroda (Japan Meteorological Agency), David Jackson
(Met Office), Andrea Lopez Lang (University at Albany), Greg Roff
(Bureau of Meteorology), Seok-Woo Son (Seoul National University)
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What will SNAP do?
• Organise and analyse a new multi-model experiment
to quantify stratospheric predictability
• Help to stimulate the growth of a community of
researchers interested in stratospheric predictability
(this and a future workshop, website and newsletters).
• Produce a review paper on current understanding of
stratospheric predictability
• Produce a SPARC report and peer-reviewed articles
on the findings of the experiment.
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Timetable
Workshop 1
April 2013
Experimental protocol produced
June 2013
Experiment begins
July 2013
Data dissemination begins
Summer 2014
Workshop 2
April 2015
SPARC report produced
Autumn 2015
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This workshop
Aims:
• Begin to build SNAP network
• Share knowledge on stratospheric predictability (Weds
and Thurs)
• Open experiment and network plan up for comment
amongst broader community
• Revise future plans for SNAP
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Your participation
• We are really excited that many of you are here for the
meeting!
• Please tell us how you think the network should
develop and what we should try to achieve (see
Andrew or Om or Steering Committee members
and/or contribute to the discussion on Friday).
• We would particularly like to firm-up plans for the
experimental protocol and for some of the analysis
following the workshop.
• We plan to keep all workshop attendees informed
through a SNAP newsletter on project developments.
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Industrial interest
Locally in the UK we are aware of quite a bit of interest in
stratospheric predictability amongst meteorologists in the
commercial.
Please take some time to talk with these attendees about
your work and their interests:
David Garner (Freepoint commodities)
Daniel Guertin (EDF)
Fotis Panagiotopoulos (Citadel)
Warwick Norton and Dan Rowlands (Cumulus)
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