Integrating macro-economic
developments and land-use allocations
in simulating urban dynamics
Hedwig van Delden
P.O. Box 463
Garry McDonald
6200 AL Maastricht
hvdelden@riks.nl
Jasper van Vliet
www.riks.nl
1
Research context
 Two research projects in New Zealand to develop
and use spatial models for supporting planning
processes
 policy impact assessment
 forecasting land-use developments
 application to a rural region: Waikato
 application to two urban regions: Auckland
and Wellington
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Land use change over time…
 Land use dynamics are complex and exhibit selforganising behaviour
 Planners and policy makers have a decisive
influence on future land use
Contradiction?
Challenge!
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Challenges
 Simulation of spatial developments over time
 Incorporation of a range of drivers
 Dynamics driven by processes operating on
various scales
 Bottom-up and top-down interactions!
 Development of a system for policy support
 Useful system for policy analysts in
supporting scenario studies and policy impact
assessment
 Transparent system with access to data and
parameters for technicians and modellers
4
Starting point…






Metronamica land use model
Constrained cellular automata based model
Yearly time steps
Time horizon 2025-2050
Spatial extent 100 x 100 km (Wellington)
Spatial resolution 100 m (Wellington)
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Land use
Land
use
& interaction
at weights
time T+1
Stochastic
perturbation
Suitability
&
t
&
0
Accessibility
v  1   ln rand 

0.5
1
Transition Rule
Change cells to the land use for
which they have the highest
transition potential until
Time Loop
regional demands are met
&
Transition
Potentials
Zoning
&
=
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How to obtain regional demands?
 Macro-economic model
 Input-output model
 Calculation of economic developments per
sector taking into account the
interdependencies between sectors
 Annual time step
 Demographic model
 Age cohort model
 Calculation of the population per age cohort
based on birth, mortality and migration rates
 Annual time step
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Integrating socio-economics and land use
Demand side
- Exports
-…
Demographic
developments
t-1
Supply side
Final
demand ($)
Change in final
demand ($)
Output ($)
Reduction in
output ($)
Conversion to land use
demands (ha)
Land use
allocation
Land that could not
be allocated
- Spatial planning
- Suitability
-…
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Integrating macro-economics and land use
 Main benefit of using IO (or CGE) models is that
the impact of land use can be analysed not only
on one sector, but also on all other sectors
 Dynamic coupling between macro-economics
and land-use change
 Impact of socio-economic growth on land use
developments
 Impact of (limited) natural resources on
economic development
 The concept of the economic model had to be
stretched by calculating the demand in one year
and the supply in another, not allowing an
equilibrium in each year
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Conclusions on the modelling approach
 Dynamic coupling between macro-economics
and land use change
 Impact of socio-economic growth on land use
developments
 Impact of (limited) natural resources on
economic development
 Equilibrium approach of economic models often
poses conceptual conflicts with the simulation
approach of dynamic land use change models
 Being able to couple models technically doesn’t
mean the coupling makes sense!
 For future research it is recommended to focus
first on the integration of the processes and next
on the model implementation
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Thank you!
hvdelden@riks.nl
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