UKIP and the Left Behind:
Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right
Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin
Why are we here?
Source: Pickup, Jennings and Ford “Polling Observatory” poll aggregation estimates
Why UKIP was a long-time coming
(and may have a long way to run)
Decline of the British Working Class, 1964-2012
Source: BES 1964-83; BSA 1984-12; class measured using Goldthorpe–Heath 5-category class schema
Rise of the Educated Middle Class, 1964-2012
Source:
British Election Studies 1964-1983; British Social Attitudes 1984-2012
Class and educational divides in EU support...
Source:
British Social Attitudes 1993-2012
Immigration divides us by class, education, and generation...
Source:
British Election Study Continuous Monitoring Survey 2004-13
The working class feel more left out than ever before
Source:
British Social Attitudes 1986-2012
What all this means:
UKIP are mobilising the “Left behind”
So who are the UKIP voters?
UKIP’s base: male, pale, stale, and struggling
2
UKIP
Labour
Conservatives
Liberal Democrats
1.5
1
0.5
0
Class
-0.5
-1
Education
Gender
Age
Ethnicity
The Brussels Plus: Not just single-issue Eurosceptics..
80
74
UKIP
70
Cons
63
60
Labour
50
50
44
40
30
34
29
32
25
20
20
10
Lib Dem
9
10
20
19
13 13
10
0
Euroscepticism: strongly Populism: very dissatisfied
Eurosceptic
with British democracy
Immigration: asylum
10/10 important
Economic pessimism: 9 or
10/10
They are very unhappy about both parties’
performance on immigration and the crisis…
....and very hostile to both parties’ leaders
20
17.6
18
16
15.2
14
12
10.7
10
8.8
8
3.6
4
2
5.6
5.4
6
2.1
0
Blair
Brown
Cameron 10-11
Cameron 12-13
UKIP Support among Different Groups 2004-2013:
“Doubling Down” on the Left Behind
Strong
Eurosceptics
Weak
Eurosceptics
Europhiles
Populism - dissatisfied with democracy
Blair: 2004-7
Brown: 2007-10
Cameron I: 2010-11
Cameron II: 2012-13
15
12
20
38
5
5
5
15
0.6
0.6
0.4
1
Share of sample
14
18
21
Immigration - rate importance of asylum
10 out of 10
Blair: 2004-7
Brown: 2007-10
Cameron I: 2010-11
Cameron II: 2012-13
14
11
16
36
6
5
5
14
1
0.8
0.8
2
Share of the sample
15
16
11
Labour’s 2015 problem
80
72
Con prev
71
70
Lab prev
60
LD prev
50
40
30
20
21
17
10
7
6
0
Con0710
Lab1213
UKIP is recruiting mainly former Cons…
…from the dissatisfied groups Labour ought to be
reconnecting with
Labour’s post 2010 rebound is strongest where UKIP’s appeal is weakest
Labour’s 2020 problem
Seat
1. Clacton
2. Rhondda
3. Blaenau Gwent
4. Kingston-upon-Hull East
5. Eastington
6. Knowsley
7. Barnsley
8. Aberavon
9. Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymeney
10. Doncaster North
11. Liverpool Walton
12. Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford
13. Great Grimsby
14. Ashfield
15. Bolsover
16. Boston and Skegness
17. Cynon Valley
18. Wentworth and Dearne
19. Redcar
20. Houghton and Sunderland South
Incumbent
Con
Lab
Lab
Lab
Lab
Lab
Lab
Lab
Lab
Lab
Lab
Lab
Lab
Lab
Lab
Con
Lab
Lab
LD
Lab
Incumbent party, top 100 UKIP-leaning seats
20
18
18
Lab
Con
17
16
14
14
14
12
10
9
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
2
2
2
1
0
0
Top 20
21-40
0
41-60
61-80
81-100
LD
What we just said in far more detail…
@robfordmancs
@GoodwinMJ