Populism in the European Parliament –
the future Parliament
Populists will do well in the election…
…But they will remain fragmented
The current make-up of the EP
ALDE
Greens / EFA
EPP
S&D
ECR
EFD
Image: GUE-NGL
Ssolbergj
Non-Attached
(NI)
The potential future make-up of the EP
Scenarios for the future Parliament
Scenario 1: ultra-fragmentation
Europe of Freedom A new populist
group
and Democracy
UKIP
Order and Justice
Independent Greeks
SGP
Finns Party
Danish People’s Party
Five Star Movement
Front National
PVV
Vlaams Belang
FPÖ
Lega Nord
Sweden Democrats
?
Non-Attached
Members
Jobbik
Golden Dawn
LSNS
Source: Electionista, own
calculations
Images: Remi Noyon, Niccolò
Caranti, Steve Jurvetson
Scenarios for the future Parliament
Scenario 2: UKIP betrayed
A new populist
group
Front National
PVV
Vlaams Belang
FPÖ
Lega Nord
Sweden Democrats
?
Non-Attached
Members
Jobbik
Golden Dawn
LSNS
UKIP
Source: Electionista, own
calculations
Images: Remi Noyon, Jennifer Jane
Mills
Scenarios for the future Parliament
Scenario 3: more of the same
Non-Attached
Members
Europe of Freedom
and Democracy
UKIP
Finns Party
Danish People’s Party
Lega Nord
Five Star Movement
Order and Justice
Independent Greeks
Source: Electionista, own
calculations
Image:: Steve Jurvetson
Jobbik
Front National
PVV
Vlaams Belang
FPÖ
Sweden Democrats
Golden Dawn
LSNS