Analyzing Bayesian Networks
with GENIE
Anchors:
Renu Rao
Kaveh Saba
GENIE
• Genie stands for Graphical Network
Interface
• Used to graphically represent probability
results
• Can predict probability of an outcome and
the results of related variables
• Advantage: Enables analysis of noisy data
and uncertain variables
Download and Installation
Website: http://genie.sis.pitt.edu/
Click ‘Download’ – Shown in red
Click ‘Register’ after entering user information
Select Genie 2.0 to initiate download
Specifics
• Node: a factor that has a pre-determined
probability
• Identifier: A valid variable name in the
programming language
• Node name: Enter what the node actually
represents
• Entering a probability: Each node has
ansuccess and failure probability which
must add to 1 and they can be entered by
clicking ‘Add’ under node properties.
Michigan’s Next Football Coach
• We can use GENIE to determine the probability
that Les Miles will be next head coach at
Michigan
• Known probabilities:
– 40% Les Miles coaches Michigan next season
– If he coaches UofM, then 20% chance that LSU won
the BCS national title
– If LSU wins national title, then 85% chance that OSU
sucks
• We Know that OSU SUCKS, what is probability that Les
Miles becomes coach of Wolverines next season?
Set Up Model with GENIE
1. Open Program
2. Set up node for Les Miles decision
Use this icon
to set up Node
Set Up Model with GENIE
3. Double-click on node
4. Specifier Identifier and Name as
Use this icon
to set up Node
Set Up Model with GENIE
5. On definition tab, specify probabilities
Set Up Model with GENIE
6. Set up Nodes for other factors
Set Up Model with GENIE
7. Specify Identifier, Name, and
Probabilities for each Node
Set Up Model with GENIE
8. Example: Probability LSU wins BCS
20% Chance LSU won BCS
if Les Miles UofM Coach
Set Up Model with GENIE
9. Connect the Nodes
Use this icon to
connect the Nodes
Determine Probability
10. Set Evidence for Last Node
We Know that OSU
SUCKS!
Determine Probability
11. Double-Click on Les Miles Node, click
on ‘Value’ tab
Conclusions
•
•
•
21.4% chance that Les Miles coach at UofM,
knowing that OSU sucks
After his press conference on Saturday,
percentage looks closer to 0
Bring on Jeff Tedford
Thank you for your time